淘宝、京东、抖音增长失灵，我们逛的电商平台出什么问题了？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

淘宝、京东、抖音增长失灵，我们逛的电商平台出什么问题了？

消费财眼01-04

过去的2025年，国内的电商行业悄然迈入一个关键拐点—电商行业十多年来以GMV（商品交易总额）为核心指标，靠补贴与流量狂奔的增长模式正在终结。如淘宝、京东等综合电商平台增长已极度放缓，而抖音等内容电商平台虽然仍保持较高的增长，却也显疲态。更令市场意外的是，曾在2024年，线下零售额同期增速达到4.59%，出乎意料地反超线上0.67%。而到了2025前三季度，线下零售额对比线上，几乎到达一个持平的...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260104205142a6f1f6c7&s=b><strong>消费财眼</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去的2025年，国内的电商行业悄然迈入一个关键拐点—电商行业十多年来以GMV（商品交易总额）为核心指标，靠补贴与流量狂奔的增长模式正在终结。如淘宝、京东等综合电商平台增长已极度放缓，而抖音等内容电商平台虽然仍保持较高的增长，却也显疲态。更令市场意外的是，曾在2024年，线下零售额同期增速达到4.59%，出乎意料地反超线上0.67%。而到了2025前三季度，线下零售额对比线上，几乎到达一个持平的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260104205142a6f1f6c7&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2357305700.SGD","symbol_name":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET 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What's wrong with the e-commerce platforms we visit?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89618":0.6,"89988":0.6,"ALBmain":0.6,"09618":1.9,"HBBD.SI":0.6,"JD":1.9},"content_text":"过去的2025年，国内的电商行业悄然迈入一个关键拐点—电商行业十多年来以GMV（商品交易总额）为核心指标，靠补贴与流量狂奔的增长模式正在终结。如淘宝、京东等综合电商平台增长已极度放缓，而抖音等内容电商平台虽然仍保持较高的增长，却也显疲态。更令市场意外的是，曾在2024年，线下零售额同期增速达到4.59%，出乎意料地反超线上0.67%。而到了2025前三季度，线下零售额对比线上，几乎到达一个持平的状态，这一信号绝不简单，意味着有大量的消费者，正放弃线上流向线下实体店。这些现象的背后，暴露的核心问题是消费者决策逻辑正在发生根本性转变。PART 01电商行业增长乏力的多维诱因回顾2025年双十一，各大平台的GMV数据就透着一股寒意。淘宝、京东的销量曲线平得像张白纸，抖音虽还喘着气，但流量变现的甜头越来越淡。这哪是寻常的促销疲软？分明是消费逻辑在悄悄翻脸。过去，“多快好省”是电商攻无不克的利器。可现在这套打法不太灵了，尤其是年轻人，他们买东西更像是在进行一场“意义追寻”。他们付钱，买的可能不仅是商品本身，还有商品附带的情绪共鸣、健康承诺，或是即时的愉悦感。这种从“性价比”到“心价比”的迁移，直接戳中了传统货架电商的软肋，它们擅长陈列商品、比拼价格，却不擅长讲故事、造氛围、给情绪。另外，线上流量也不再是取之不尽的富矿，电商行业增长见顶，就是流量经济枯竭的具象化体现。眼下，中国互联网用户规模已经到达天花板，公海变内湖，各家平台为抢那点存量用户打得头破血流。这就导致获客成本一路飙升，有些品类单个新客获客成本甚至已来到百元，可用户的终身价值（LTV）却因为品牌忠诚度稀薄、选择太多而停滞不前。与此同时，正在电商平台还在存量竞争、想方设法研究线上流量之际，线下实体店却悄悄完成了“数字化武装”，开始反扑。2024到2025年线下增速反超线上，这绝非偶然回光返照，可能是一场精准打击。就比如一些知名的服装品牌实体店，正凭借其不可替代的体验价值、强大的品牌塑造能力以及深度融合的数字化工具，正从线上手中重新夺回消费者。这场反扑的核心，首先源于线上流量红利见顶后残酷的成本倒逼。对商家而言，线上已从一个低成本渠道，变为一个需要持续“投流”且充满不确定性的高成本战场。有经营者对比，一家普通实体服装店的开店成本约30万至40万元，而线上要达到同等的客流量，成本已与之相差无几，并且需要持续投入。更严峻的是，线上零售退货率居高不下，这带来了巨大的库存积压和现金流压力，而退货成本最终由商家或品牌承担。相比之下，线下门店天然的零距离体验几乎消灭了“因无法试穿、看不见摸不着而产生的大规模退货”，其自然客流和即看即买的特性，反而在当下构成了坚实的成本护城河。如今的实体店，早已进化为线上线下融合的全域零售枢纽，形成对纯线上模式的降维打击。总结起来，电商行业面临的增长乏力，背后就是消费逻辑的迁徙、流量经济的枯竭、线下价值的重生等三股力量悄然交汇，酿成的一场无声却席卷全行业的“完美风暴”袭击。PART 02各大电商平台的困境，并非认知的不足面对这场消费风暴，没有哪家平台真的躺平。淘宝推内容化，京东搞小时达，抖音喊出“全域兴趣电商”，它们方向似乎都对，动作也够快。可奇怪的是，效果总差一口气，其中的问题出在哪呢？或许不是看不清风向，而是身体太重，转身太慢。这些巨头历史的成功，反而成了今天的枷锁。比如电商龙头淘宝，目前仍是“万能货架”，其商品不但最全、平台交易也是最熟的。可为了找到新的增长引擎，淘宝也学着抖音等平台，开始做“内容”、做“视频”为商品引流。可是，这种做法陷入了一种逻辑性的错误，这边多年来，用户打开淘宝时心里想的是“找东西”，不是“逛世界”。淘宝想把自己变成一个“能逛、能看、能买”的内容场，在首页塞满短视频，“逛逛”力推UGC，直播更是不断加码，想用内容激发非计划消费。但把抖音等其他内容平台那套简单搬过来，必然是水土不服，而且淘宝这么多年来形成的工具属性哪那么容易改写？而另一家电商巨头平台“京东”，靠着自营物流和正品保障，在3C数码领域稳如磐石。可一旦进入服饰、美妆这些需要情绪共鸣的赛道，它的页面冷静得近乎冷漠—没有潮流感，没有社交温度，年轻人自然觉得“不够好玩”。当消费越来越感性，光靠“靠谱”已经不够了。打开京东，满屏参数、冷静排版、缺乏互动氛围，哪有“心动”的空间？它引进再多潮牌，如果平台本身不想“玩”、不想“撩”，品牌也只能干晾着。但说到底，京东并非是单纯习惯用效率说话，忘了消费有时是一场情绪的共振。而是如果京东学会了“撩”，则可能让一些用户突然觉得不严谨，影响了京东3C数码领域的基本盘。再说到抖音，其踩准了“意义消费”的节拍，用内容点燃购买冲动，创造了新增量。但它的问题也显而易见的，比如：抖音爆款商品来得快去得也快，期间存在供应链跟不上、售后跟不上、复购更跟不上。用户因为一个视频下单，下次还会回来吗？没人说得清。举个例子，消费者今天能在抖音上因为一个露营视频下单，但未必记得品牌名字，复购从何而来？商家的获客成本变成了“一次性消费”。而平台自己也在走钢丝，商业化一用力，内容体验就打折；克制一点，又对不起投资人。毕竟，抖音的算法生来是为了让人“停不下来刷视频”，而不是“安心下单买东西”。所以，电商行业销量下滑、增长下滑，从来不是某个平台的失误，而是一场系统性重构的信号。消费者不再被低价和流量轻易打动，他们要的是可感知的价值、可触摸的确定性、可分享的情绪。线上平台第一次发现，自己真正的对手，不是另一个APP，也不单纯是那个开在街角的线下实体店，而是一个更具体、更鲜活、更有温度的现实世界。但说到底，这些平台可能不是不知道该往哪儿走，而是过去的成功路径太深，深到每一步转型都像在泥沼中跋涉。PART 03流量玩法“失灵”之后2025年这场电商“静默革命”，说到底，并不是线上渠道不行了，而是那种靠砸流量、拼低价、堆商品的玩法彻底失灵了。消费者不再满足于无限的商品陈列与冰冷的价格对比，他们渴望可触摸的真实、有温度的交互与即刻可得的满足。这迫使所有参与者，无论线上巨头还是线下品牌，都必须从争夺“注意力”的表层战争，下沉到比拼“体验、信任与确定性”的深层较量。这其实逼着所有人重新思考一个问题，零售的本质到底是什么？可能不是货架多大，也不是算法多准，而是能不能在人和商品之间搭起一座有温度的桥。线上平台再聪明，也替代不了试穿一件衣服时镜子里的自己；线下门店再温馨，若没有数字化支撑，也留不住习惯手机下单的年轻人。所以，与其说线上线下在竞争，不如说它们需要互相补课、彼此缝合。对于各大电商平台而言，未来要做的，可能是如何助力商家、品牌真正实现“线上线下结合”，只有能把两者拧成一股绳的角色，恐怕才是未来的赢家。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}