国内电车跟踪：11月销量同比高增，预计25年全年销量1665.4万辆 | 中信建投电新_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

国内电车跟踪：11月销量同比高增，预计25年全年销量1665.4万辆 | 中信建投电新

中信建投研究电...2025-12-29

重要提示：通过本订阅号发布的观点和信息仅供中信建投证券股份有限公司（下称“中信建投”）客户中符合《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》规定的机构类专业投资者参考。因本订阅号暂时无法设置访问限制，若您并非中信建投客户中的机构类专业投资者，为控制投资风险，请您取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。对由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！核心观点11月中汽协口径国内新能源车销量...

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New","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BYDDY":1.95,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"002594":1.95,"TSLL":0.84,"01211":1.95,"09866":0.9,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.92,"09863":0.9},"content_text":"重要提示：通过本订阅号发布的观点和信息仅供中信建投证券股份有限公司（下称“中信建投”）客户中符合《证券期货投资者适当性管理办法》规定的机构类专业投资者参考。因本订阅号暂时无法设置访问限制，若您并非中信建投客户中的机构类专业投资者，为控制投资风险，请您取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。对由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！核心观点11月中汽协口径国内新能源车销量182.3万辆，同/环比+20.6%/+6.3%；乘联会口径新能源乘用车批售170.6万辆，同/环比+18.5%/+5.8%，渗透率56.9%，环比+1.6%。级别方面，11月A00+A0级新能源乘用车零售销量占比环比-3.6pct至30.7%,主要由比亚迪海鸥环比-51.83%带动。A级占比环比-1.0pct至16.3%。B级及以上占比环比+4.6pct至53.0%，主要由特斯拉Model 3环比+52.25%带动。预计12月国内电车批售192万辆（含商用），同比+20.3%，2025全年销量预期1665.4万辆。事件中汽协口径：11月国内新能源车（含商用）产量188.0万辆，同比+20.0%，环比+6.1%；销量182.3万辆，同比+20.6%，环比+6.3%。乘联会口径：11月新能源乘用车批售/零售170.6和132.1万辆，同比+18.5%/+4.0%，环比+5.8%/+3.0%，渗透率56.9%/59.4%，环比+1.6pct/+2.2pct。出口28.4万辆，同比+255.0%，环比+19.3%；渗透率47.3%，环比+3.1pct。1）级别方面，11月A00+A0级新能源乘用车零售销量占比环比下降，A级新能源乘用车零售销量占比环比下降，B级及以上新能源乘用车零售销量占比环比上升。A级销量11.1万辆，B级及以上销量36.2万辆，A00+A0销量21万辆。其中，A00+A0级新能源乘用车零售销量占比环比-3.6pct至30.7%,主要由比亚迪海鸥环比-51.83%带动。A级占比环比-1.0pct至16.3%。B级及以上占比环比+4.6pct至53.0%，主要由特斯拉Model 3环比+52.25%带动。2）车型方面，特斯拉Model Y以5.6万销量、3.3%市占率位居第一。宏光MINI、比亚迪海鸥、比亚迪秦PLUS DM-i依次位列二、三、四名，销量分别为5.4/5.0/3.8万辆，环比-12.3% / +36.9% / +8.4%，市占率分别为3.1% / 2.9% / 2.2%，环比-0.7% / +0.7% / +0.1%。3）车企方面，比亚迪以47.5万辆销量继续稳居第一，环比+8.7%，市占率27.8%，环比+0.7pct。吉利汽车位居第二，销量18.8万辆，环比+5.6%，市占率11.0%，环比+0pct。奇瑞汽车位居第三，销量11.2万辆，环比+6.3%，市占率为6.5%，环比+0pct。投资建议详见正式报告。11月新能源乘用车批售170.6万辆，渗透率56.9%，环比+1.6pct中汽协:11月国内新能源车销量182.2万辆，同比+20.6%，环比+6.2%中汽协口径：2025年11月国内新能源车（含商用）产量188.0万辆，同比+20.0%，环比+6.1%；销量171.5万辆，同比+19.9%，环比+6.9%。11月新能源汽车国内销量152.2万辆，环比+4.3%，同比+6.5%；新能源汽车出口30万辆，环比+17.3%，同比增长2.6倍。中汽协口径，11月国内新能源车渗透率53.2%，环比+1.5pct。乘联会：11月国内新能源乘用车批售170.6万辆，同比+18.5%，环比+5.8%乘联会口径：2025年11月国内新能源乘用车批售170.6万辆，同比+18.5%，环比+5.8%；渗透率56.9%，环比+1.6pct，11月零售132.1万辆，同比+4.0%，环比+3.0%；渗透率59.4%，环比+2.2pct。出口28.4万辆，同比+255.0%，环比+19.3%；渗透率47.3%，环比+3.1pct。级别方面，11月A00+A0级新能源乘用车零售销量占比环比下降，A级新能源乘用车零售销量占比环比下降，B级及以上新能源乘用车零售销量占比环比上升。A级销量11.1万辆，B级及以上销量36.2万辆，A00+A0销量21万辆。其中，B级别及以上占比53.0%；A级别占比16.3%，A00+A0级别占比30.7%。车型方面，特斯拉Model Y以5.6万销量、3.3%市占率位居第一。宏光MINI、比亚迪海鸥、比亚迪秦PLUS DM-i依次位列二、三、四名，销量分别为5.4/5.0/3.8万辆，环比-12.3%/+36.9%/+8.4%，市占率分别为3.1%/2.9%/2.2%，环比-0.7%/+0.7%/ +0.1%。车企方面，比亚迪以47.5万辆销量继续稳居第一，环比+8.7%，市占率27.8%，环比+0.7pct。吉利汽车位居第二，销量18.8万辆，环比+5.6%，市占率11.0%，环比+0pct。奇瑞汽车位居第三，销量11.2万辆，环比+6.3%，市占率为6.5%，环比+0pct。上险量：11月国内新能源乘用车上险量122.3万，环比+2.3%11月国内新能源乘用车上险量合计122.3万，同比-1.1%，环比+2.3%。其中：1）限牌城市上险量19.5万辆，占比16.0%，环比+1.3pct。2）私人消费上险量103.7万辆，占比84.8%，占比环比-2.8pct。特斯拉：11月批售8.67万辆，其中出口1.4万辆，Model 3/Y销售3.1/5.6万辆11月特斯拉批售8.67万辆，同比+9.9%，环比+41.0%，市占率5.1%，同比-0.4pct。11月特斯拉内销7.3万辆，环比+181.3%；出口1.4万辆，环比-61.8%。分车型来看，11月Model 3销量3.1万辆，同比-3.5%，环比+35.7%；Model Y销量5.6万辆，同比+19.3%，环比+44.1%，特斯拉11月销量整体环比上升主要系Model 3与Model Y销量上升，Model 3与Model Y销量较上月均上升。本月特斯拉上险量合计72509辆，其中Model 3为25734辆，环比+264.92%，Model Y为46775辆，环比+130.69%。比亚迪：11月销量47.5万辆，环比+8.7%，市占率27.8%，环比+0.7pct11月比亚迪各车型合计销量达47.5万辆，环比+8.7%，市占率27.8%，环比+0.7pct。主力车型秦PLUS DM-i/宋DM/汉/元PLUS/海豚/海鸥销量3.8/4.1/1.1/1.0/3.1/5.0万辆，六款车型贡献38.4%的销量，份额环比+2.4pct，秦PLUS DM-i/宋DM/汉/元PLUS/海豚/海鸥市占率环比+0pct/+0.4pct/+0pct/-0.4pct/+0.4pct/+2.2pct至8.0%/8.7%/2.5%/2.1%/6.5%/10.6%。新势力（蔚来/理想/小鹏/哪咤/零跑）：11月销量17.7万辆，环比-4.3%11月新势力（蔚来、理想、小鹏、哪咤、零跑）合计销量达17.7万辆，环比-4.3%，市占率10.3%，环比-1.1pct。蔚来汽车本月销量3.6万辆，环比-10.2%；理想汽车本月销量3.3万辆，环比+4.5%；小鹏汽车本月销量3.7万辆，环比-12.6%；哪咤本月销量0辆，环比-100%；零跑本月销量7.0万辆，环比+0.1%。投资建议详见正式报告。风险分析1）下游新能源汽车产销不及预期：销量端可能受到政策波动、需求疲软影响而不及预期；产量端可能受到上游原材料价格大幅波动、限电、进口限制等影响不及预期，进而影响产业链盈利能力和估值。2）原材料价格上涨超预期：2021年以来原材料价格持续上涨，同时原材料价格阶段性出现大幅波动性，价格高位及不稳定性对于终端需求有一定影响，对产业链相关公司盈利能力影响较大。3）锂电产业链重点项目推进不及预期：重点项目的推进是相关公司支撑营收和利润的关键，也是成长性的反映，重点项目推进不及预期将影响当期和远期业绩，同时影响产业链稳定性。分析师介绍许琳中信建投证券新能源汽车锂电与材料行业首席分析师，7年主机厂供应链管理+2年新能源车研究经验，2021年加入中信建投证券研究发展部，主要覆盖新能源汽车、电池研究。雷云泽中信建投证券电力设备及新能源研究员，清华大学大学电气工程硕士，研究方向为储能、电力设备。2022年所在团队荣获新财富最佳分析师评选第四名，2022年上证报最佳电力设备新能源分析师第二名，金麒麟评选光伏设备第二名，金麒麟电池行业第三名，金麒麟新能源汽车第三名，水晶球新能源行业第三名，水晶球电力设备行业第五名。证券研究报告名称：《国内电车跟踪：11月销量同比高增，预计25年全年销量1665.4万辆》对外发布时间：2025年12月27日报告发布机构：中信建投证券股份有限公司本报告分析师：许琳、雷云泽执业证书编号：S1440522110001、S1440523110002","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}