白银急涨，马斯克拿中国出口管制说事：这不好，很多生产需要白银_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

白银急涨，马斯克拿中国出口管制说事：这不好，很多生产需要白银

观察者网2025-12-30

【文/观察者网阮佳琪】近来银价持续暴涨，白银更一举成为今年涨幅最高的贵金属品种。这一行情是实物供应紧张与投机狂热等多重因素共同作用的结果，但美国亿万富翁马斯克却将矛头指向了中国即将延续实施的一项白银出口管制措施。据福克斯新闻网29日报道，马斯克就白银价格暴涨发出警告。他在社交平台X上回复了一则帖子，该帖子指出，自明年1月1日起，中国将要求企业出口白银必须取得政府许可证。马斯克对此回复道，“这...

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今年10月29日，中国商务部发布第69号公告，明确2026年继续暂停磷矿石、白银出口配额管理，实行出口许可证管理。符合条件的对外贸易经营者，可凭有效的货物出口合同申领出口许可证（加工贸易项下出口白银按规定办理），凭出口许可证向海关办理货物出口报关验放手续。与此同时，商务部第68号公告也公布了《2026—2027年度钨、锑、白银出口国营贸易企业申报条件及申报程序》。 但需要明确的是，中国对白银实施出口许可证管理已有多年，明年即将实施的相关措施，实则是对过往准入与审批要求的延续和细化，并非“新增管制”，其核心目的是保护国内资源与生态环境，加强稀有金属出口的规范化管理。马斯克借银价暴涨对中国相关政策表达无端担忧，实属莫名其妙。 马斯克的X 受投资者获利回吐、短期期货交易者多头平仓影响，国际黄金、白银期货价格在29日大幅下跌，金价跌幅一度超过4.5%，银价跌幅一度逼近9%。截至发稿时，金价为每盎司4346.6美元，银价为每盎司71.54美元。 就在上周五贵金属市场迎来“史诗级”全线暴涨后，周一交易时段的现货白银开盘即快速拉升，盘中最高一度触及83.99美元/盎司。随后涨势戛然而止，回吐了日内超6%的全部涨幅并由盈转亏。 有分析指出，此次白银等贵金属价格大跌的直接导火索，是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）宣布上调多类金属合约保证金。新规于29日（周一）生效，白银市场由此迎来关键一周。 另有市场分析师认为，当日下跌只是上涨趋势中的阶段性回调，虽然黄金、白银价格短期走势图表呈现下跌态势，但整体上涨趋势并未改变。不过，若本月30日、31日出现强劲的后续抛售压力，黄金、白银期价则可能遭遇更深幅度的下跌，这也将意味着短期市场顶部已形成。 ActivTrades的分析师里卡多·埃万杰利斯塔（Ricardo Evangelista）对福克斯新闻网表示，“在价格创下历史新高后，当日早盘的回落主要是交易员在年末来临前获利了结所致。此外，美国政府对乌克兰和平谈判进展流露出的谨慎乐观态度，也对白银价格形成了小幅利空。” 期货公司High Ridge Futures的金属交易主管戴维·梅杰（David Meger）也指出，正是获利了结行为导致白银价格从“惊人高位”回落。他补充说，“我认为，白银供应受限的基本面因素仍在持续影响市场，进入2026年后，其走势依然向好。” 今年以来，白银价格出现史诗级暴涨，涨幅已接近150%，坐稳今年涨幅最高贵金属品种的位置。银价的快速上涨，是多重因素共同驱动的结果：全球白银供应持续紧张、美国将白银列为关键矿产、工业领域需求强劲释放、地缘政治紧张局势提振避险需求、美联储降息预期推动贵金属板块走高，再加上白银市场流动性较低进一步放大价格波动。 财联社此前援引分析人士观点指出，当前投资者与工业界对白银的需求几乎达到了“来者不拒”的地步。在投资领域，这种贵金属正以实物和金融资产两种形式被大量囤积，旨在实现财富保值并对冲美元及其他货币的贬值风险。 在实体经济领域，白银的需求同样呈现爆发式增长。珠宝商、医疗器械商、电动汽车制造商、数据中心建设商，尤其是太阳能电池板生产商，都在大量消耗白银。据分析人士估算，太阳能产业消耗了全球矿产与回收白银年产量的近30%。 而在供给端，短期内白银几乎没有大规模新增产量入市的可能。全球“原生白银”矿床已基本枯竭，现有的白银产量大多是开采铜、金、锌等金属时的副产品。斯普罗特资产管理公司（Sprott Asset Management）首席执行官约翰·钱帕利亚（John Ciampaglia）指出，这意味着白银供应的变化往往受制于其他金属的需求，而非取决于白银自身的价格波动。 在白银价格上演过山车行情的背景下，分析师对其后市走势的看法也出现了明显的两极分化。 有分析人士此前警告称，贵金属价格已站在“悬崖边缘”，回调风险正在不断累积。凯投宏观发布的报告预计，随着市场对黄金的狂热情绪消退，白银价格到明年年底可能回落至约42美元/盎司。而以华尔街著名经济学家彼得·希夫为代表的乐观派则认为，白银价格明年有望冲破100美元/盎司的关口。 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