瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？

调研纪要杂货铺2025-12-25

瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至...

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你父巴
·2025-12-26
傻子都知道他车卖疯了，居然说人家卖少了？
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optioncao
·2025-12-25
二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]
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T111240
·2025-12-25
瑞银都自己干死自己了，还评别人[捂脸]
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Q4 delivery is expected to drop by 16%, and the target price is only US $247, but there are two hidden catalysts?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98},"content_text":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：•美国市场拖累显著：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年利率贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；•欧洲市场环比回暖：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；•中国市场温和回升：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；•其他市场波动：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：•预计2025年稀释后每股收益（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。��区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化•价格方面：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；•交付周期：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。��互动时间你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":514772477046872,"gmtCreate":1766707236036,"gmtModify":1766712652487,"author":{"id":"3558608846550639","authorId":"3558608846550639","name":"你父巴","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558608846550639","authorIdStr":"3558608846550639"},"htmlText":"傻子都知道他车卖疯了，居然说人家卖少了？","listText":"傻子都知道他车卖疯了，居然说人家卖少了？","text":"傻子都知道他车卖疯了，居然说人家卖少了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514772477046872","repostId":2594625231,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2594625231","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766656856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594625231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-25 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594625231","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元，并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>瑞银最新研报给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。</p><p><strong>��</strong>核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%</p><p>瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：</p><p>•<strong>美国市场拖累显著</strong>：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年<span>利率</span>贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；</p><p>•<strong>欧洲市场环比回暖</strong>：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；</p><p>•<strong>中国市场温和回升</strong>：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；</p><p>•<strong>其他市场波动</strong>：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。</p><p>整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。</p><p><strong>��</strong>财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高</p><p>瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：</p><p>•预计2025年稀释后<span>每股收益</span>（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；</p><p>•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；</p><p>•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。</p><p><strong>️</strong>主要风险与潜在机遇</p><p><strong>下行风险</strong></p><p>1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；</p><p>2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；</p><p>3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；</p><p>4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。</p><p><strong>上行催化剂</strong></p><p>1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；</p><p>2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；</p><p>3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。</p><p><strong>��</strong>区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化</p><p>•<strong>价格方面</strong>：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；</p><p>•<strong>交付周期</strong>：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。</p><p><strong>��</strong>互动时间</p><p>你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？</p><p>欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b><strong>调研纪要杂货铺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM 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(USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2594625231","content_text":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：•美国市场拖累显著：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年利率贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；•欧洲市场环比回暖：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；•中国市场温和回升：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；•其他市场波动：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：•预计2025年稀释后每股收益（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。��区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化•价格方面：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；•交付周期：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。��互动时间你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":514640378184168,"gmtCreate":1766674987730,"gmtModify":1766676477452,"author":{"id":"38220067823223","authorId":"38220067823223","name":"optioncao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ecb563d4e3667cbc1b3657debd5f07b","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"38220067823223","authorIdStr":"38220067823223"},"htmlText":"二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514640378184168","repostId":2594625231,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2594625231","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766656856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594625231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-25 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594625231","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元，并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>瑞银最新研报给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。</p><p><strong>��</strong>核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%</p><p>瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：</p><p>•<strong>美国市场拖累显著</strong>：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年<span>利率</span>贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；</p><p>•<strong>欧洲市场环比回暖</strong>：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；</p><p>•<strong>中国市场温和回升</strong>：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；</p><p>•<strong>其他市场波动</strong>：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。</p><p>整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。</p><p><strong>��</strong>财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高</p><p>瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：</p><p>•预计2025年稀释后<span>每股收益</span>（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；</p><p>•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；</p><p>•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。</p><p><strong>️</strong>主要风险与潜在机遇</p><p><strong>下行风险</strong></p><p>1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；</p><p>2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；</p><p>3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；</p><p>4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。</p><p><strong>上行催化剂</strong></p><p>1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；</p><p>2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；</p><p>3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。</p><p><strong>��</strong>区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化</p><p>•<strong>价格方面</strong>：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；</p><p>•<strong>交付周期</strong>：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。</p><p><strong>��</strong>互动时间</p><p>你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？</p><p>欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b><strong>调研纪要杂货铺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM 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(USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2594625231","content_text":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：•美国市场拖累显著：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年利率贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；•欧洲市场环比回暖：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；•中国市场温和回升：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；•其他市场波动：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：•预计2025年稀释后每股收益（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。��区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化•价格方面：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；•交付周期：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。��互动时间你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":514853068493312,"gmtCreate":1766672210982,"gmtModify":1766672740272,"author":{"id":"3519254194891755","authorId":"3519254194891755","name":"T111240","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2247fe6dcaef36d3524bf1e69928a257","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3519254194891755","authorIdStr":"3519254194891755"},"htmlText":"瑞银都自己干死自己了，还评别人[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"瑞银都自己干死自己了，还评别人[捂脸]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"瑞银都自己干死自己了，还评别人[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514853068493312","repostId":2594625231,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2594625231","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766656856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594625231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-25 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594625231","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元，并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>瑞银最新研报给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。</p><p><strong>��</strong>核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%</p><p>瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：</p><p>•<strong>美国市场拖累显著</strong>：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年<span>利率</span>贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；</p><p>•<strong>欧洲市场环比回暖</strong>：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；</p><p>•<strong>中国市场温和回升</strong>：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；</p><p>•<strong>其他市场波动</strong>：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。</p><p>整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。</p><p><strong>��</strong>财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高</p><p>瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：</p><p>•预计2025年稀释后<span>每股收益</span>（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；</p><p>•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；</p><p>•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。</p><p><strong>️</strong>主要风险与潜在机遇</p><p><strong>下行风险</strong></p><p>1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；</p><p>2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；</p><p>3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；</p><p>4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。</p><p><strong>上行催化剂</strong></p><p>1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；</p><p>2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；</p><p>3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。</p><p><strong>��</strong>区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化</p><p>•<strong>价格方面</strong>：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；</p><p>•<strong>交付周期</strong>：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。</p><p><strong>��</strong>互动时间</p><p>你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？</p><p>欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b><strong>调研纪要杂货铺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2594625231","content_text":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：•美国市场拖累显著：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年利率贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；•欧洲市场环比回暖：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；•中国市场温和回升：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；•其他市场波动：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：•预计2025年稀释后每股收益（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。��区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化•价格方面：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；•交付周期：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。��互动时间你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}