碳酸锂目标价18000美元！摩根大通对锂价极为乐观，上调所有纯锂矿商评级至“增持”_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

碳酸锂目标价18000美元！摩根大通对锂价极为乐观，上调所有纯锂矿商评级至“增持”

华尔街见闻12-18

由于储能和商用车需求超预期爆发，摩根大通将2030年全球锂需求预测上调至350万吨（共识上限）。分析师认为，中期4-7%的供需缺口将迫使碳酸锂价格在明年底冲向18000美元，较现货价高出约33%。因此该行全面看多，直言锂价已进入持续的“激励价格”环境。由于需求井喷，锂市场的供应短缺问题可能正变得比之前预期的更为严峻。据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在12月17日发布的研报显示，Lyndon Fagan等...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

暂无评论

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2592923181?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-12-18 10:50","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2592923181","market":"fut","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"碳酸锂目标价18000美元！摩根大通对锂价极为乐观，上调所有纯锂矿商评级至“增持”","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>由于储能和商用车需求超预期爆发，摩根大通将2030年全球锂需求预测上调至350万吨（共识上限）。分析师认为，中期4-7%的供需缺口将迫使碳酸锂价格在明年底冲向18000美元，较现货价高出约33%。因此该行全面看多，直言锂价已进入持续的“激励价格”环境。由于需求井喷，锂市场的供应短缺问题可能正变得比之前预期的更为严峻。据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在12月17日发布的研报显示，Lyndon Fagan等...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761611\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>碳酸锂目标价18000美元！摩根大通对锂价极为乐观，上调所有纯锂矿商评级至“增持”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n碳酸锂目标价18000美元！摩根大通对锂价极为乐观，上调所有纯锂矿商评级至“增持”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-18 10:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761611><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>由于储能和商用车需求超预期爆发，摩根大通将2030年全球锂需求预测上调至350万吨（共识上限）。分析师认为，中期4-7%的供需缺口将迫使碳酸锂价格在明年底冲向18000美元，较现货价高出约33%。因此该行全面看多，直言锂价已进入持续的“激励价格”环境。由于需求井喷，锂市场的供应短缺问题可能正变得比之前预期的更为严峻。据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在12月17日发布的研报显示，Lyndon Fagan等...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761611\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BFXG1179.USD","symbol_name":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761611","article_id":"2592923181","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761611","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592923181","pubTimestamp":1766026212,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"由于储能和商用车需求超预期爆发，摩根大通将2030年全球锂需求预测上调至350万吨（共识上限）。分析师认为，中期4-7%的供需缺口将迫使碳酸锂价格在明年底冲向18000美元，较现货价高出约33%。因此该行全面看多，直言锂价已进入持续的“激励价格”环境。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","BK4597":"股息贵族","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU0976567544.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Income A Mdis SGD-H1","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A5\" (USD) INC","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","ESS":"埃塞克斯信托","LU1366192091.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY PLUS \"AM\" (USD) INC","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1  Acc SGD-H","LU2552382132.HKD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD)   INC","LU1032466523.USD":"高盛全球多资产收益组合Acc","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC","LU0689472784.USD":"安联收益及增长基金Cl AM AT Acc","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","CV":"CapsoVision, Inc.","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD"},"translate_title":"The target price of lithium carbonate is $18,000! JPMorgan Chase is extremely optimistic about lithium prices, upgrading all pure-play lithium miners to \"overweight\"","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/748d6e5592939c2045924081a60bc6d4","symbols_score_info":{"CV":1,"ESS":1},"content_text":"由于储能和商用车需求超预期爆发，摩根大通将2030年全球锂需求预测上调至350万吨（共识上限）。分析师认为，中期4-7%的供需缺口将迫使碳酸锂价格在明年底冲向18000美元，较现货价高出约33%。因此该行全面看多，直言锂价已进入持续的“激励价格”环境。由于需求井喷，锂市场的供应短缺问题可能正变得比之前预期的更为严峻。据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在12月17日发布的研报显示，Lyndon Fagan等分析师们将碳酸锂2026年第四季度的目标价格大幅上调至18000美元/吨，远高于目前约13500美元/吨的现货价格。同时，作为锂矿原材料的锂辉石，其目标价也被上调至2000美元/吨，较当前约1100美元/吨的现货价几乎翻倍。这一戏剧性的转变直接影响了资本市场。摩根大通宣布，将其覆盖的所有纯锂矿商股评级全面上调至“增持”（Overweight），并显著提高了这些公司的目标价，认为在强劲的商品价格背景下，这些股票存在显著的上行空间。报告的核心逻辑在于，尽管全球锂供应正在增加，但其增长速度已无法跟上需求的爆炸式扩张。摩根大通的分析师团队指出，来自储能系统（ESS）和中国商用车的“重大需求上调”，正导致供需缺口在中期内不断扩大，市场将进入一个“长期的激励价格环境”。需求超预期上调：储能与商用车成“双引擎”报告指出，锂需求的增长动力主要来自储能系统（ESS）和电动商用车（CV）两大领域，其增长速度超出了市场预期。首先，储能系统（ESS）需求持续井喷。受中国政策支持、欧洲强劲的订单势头以及人工智能（AI）数据中心等新兴应用场景的推动，摩根大通将其2026年全球ESS产量预测上调了17%，从770GWh提升至900GWh，中期（2026年后）预测增幅更是达到约30%。报告预计，到2026年，ESS将占到全球碳酸锂当量（LCE）总需求的32%，并在2030年进一步增长至38%。其次，电动汽车（EV）电池需求，尤其是商用车领域，被显著上调。报告将2026-2030年全球纯电动汽车（BEV）电池需求预测上调了4%-22%。这一调整主要源于中国商用车电池尺寸的显著增加。数据显示，电池容量超过200KWh的重型卡车（HDT）在中国的渗透率已达到四年来的高点（28%）。因此，报告预测，到2026年，商用车将占到电动汽车LCE总需求的18%（此前为13%），到2030年，这一比例将升至25%（此前为15%）。综合以上因素，摩根大通现已将其对2030年全球锂总需求量的预测上调至350万吨LCE，这一数字位于市场普遍预期的顶端。供应增长滞后：短期难以弥补缺口尽管摩根大通在模型中已经考虑了中国、非洲和澳大利亚等地的供应增长，包括重启Bald Hill和Ngungaju等矿山，但报告强调，矿山重启和产能扩张需要时间。数据显示，相较于需求端的迅猛增长，供应端的响应速度明显滞后。报告预测，2026年的供应量仅温和增长7%，而2027-2030年的供应增幅也仅在14%-18%之间。这种供应增长的滞后性，使得短期内难以有效弥补因需求激增而扩大的缺口。供需缺口扩大，价格预测大幅上调在新的供需模型下，报告预测锂市场在中期将出现更严重的短缺，缺口相当于总需求的4%至7%。这种持续的供不应求局面，为锂价创造了一个“持续的激励价格环境”，即需要更高的价格来刺激新供应的投入。基于此，摩根大通再次大幅上调了其价格预测：锂辉石（Spodumene）：到2026年第四季度的价格预测上调至2,000美元/吨（目前现货价约1,100美元/吨）。碳酸锂（Carbonate）：价格预测上调至18,000美元/吨（目前现货价约13,500美元/吨）。报告同时指出，根据上海有色网（SMM）的月度数据，中国锂化学品市场在过去三个月已连续处于短缺状态，进一步印证了市场的紧张状况。对大宗商品价格的乐观预期，直接转化为对相关公司股票的看涨观点。摩根大通在报告中指出，自10月以来，锂矿商的股价已上涨超过25%，并认为在新的价格预测下，这些股票可以继续上涨。摩根大通认为所有纯锂矿业公司的股价都存在上行空间，因此采取了全面看多的策略。同时，报告宣布了一系列评级和目标价上调：","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}