明年数据中心资本开支增长将超50%！摩根大通：AI相关股票盈利预期被低估了_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

明年数据中心资本开支增长将超50%！摩根大通：AI相关股票盈利预期被低估了

华尔街见闻2025-12-18

市场担忧AI资本开支下滑之际，摩根大通大幅上调数据中心资本开支增长预测，认为市场严重低估了AI相关股票的盈利潜力。据追风交易台，摩根大通北美股票研究团队在最新报告中表示，大型科技公司的军备竞赛不仅没有放缓，反而在加速。根据报告，2026年数据中心资本开支增速预计将超过50%，较此前30%的预期大幅提升。这意味着明年将新增超过1500亿美元的增量支出，基本覆盖英伟达、AMD、博通和Marvell等...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761614><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场担忧AI资本开支下滑之际，摩根大通大幅上调数据中心资本开支增长预测，认为市场严重低估了AI相关股票的盈利潜力。据追风交易台，摩根大通北美股票研究团队在最新报告中表示，大型科技公司的军备竞赛不仅没有放缓，反而在加速。根据报告，2026年数据中心资本开支增速预计将超过50%，较此前30%的预期大幅提升。这意味着明年将新增超过1500亿美元的增量支出，基本覆盖英伟达、AMD、博通和Marvell等...</p>\n\n<a 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expenditure growth will exceed 50% next year! JPMorgan: Earnings estimates for AI-related stocks are undervalued","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1e264c623279d6f78b9c8d2106fb240","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"市场担忧AI资本开支下滑之际，摩根大通大幅上调数据中心资本开支增长预测，认为市场严重低估了AI相关股票的盈利潜力。据追风交易台，摩根大通北美股票研究团队在最新报告中表示，大型科技公司的军备竞赛不仅没有放缓，反而在加速。根据报告，2026年数据中心资本开支增速预计将超过50%，较此前30%的预期大幅提升。这意味着明年将新增超过1500亿美元的增量支出，基本覆盖英伟达、AMD、博通和Marvell等核心AI芯片厂商的预期营收。更重要的是，由于AI算力供给持续严重滞后于需求，摩根大通认为实际增速可能达到60%以上，这将为AI基础设施相关公司带来超预期的业绩增长机会，当前市场对AI产业链核心标的的盈利预期仍然过于保守。资本开支预测大幅上调：2026年将迎爆发式增长摩根大通IT硬件团队的最新分析显示，2025年数据中心支出增速已从数月前预测的55%大幅上调至约65%。这一调整背后的驱动力是超大规模云服务商持续加码AI基础设施建设，而根本原因是可用AI算力供给仍远远无法满足市场需求。从绝对金额来看，2025年相比2024年的增量支出将超过1150亿美元，这一数字显著高于2024年750-800亿美元的同比增量。值得注意的是，这1150亿美元的增量支出已经基本涵盖了英伟达、AMD、博通和Marvell四家公司今年预期的AI相关GPU/ASIC和网络设备的增量营收总和(850亿美元以上)。更值得投资者关注的是2026年的展望，摩根大通目前预计2026年数据中心资本开支增速将超过50%，这比此前30%的预期大幅提高。按照这一增速，2026年的增量支出将超过1500亿美元。历史数据显示，资本开支增长预期在年内持续上调是常态。2024年和2025年均呈现这一趋势：随着时间推移和可见度提高，市场对未来年份的资本开支增长预期不断上修。摩根大通认为2026年将重复这一模式，随着对持续增长的信心增强，市场对2026/2027年的资本开支预期很可能继续攀升。从四大美国超大规模云服务商的总资本开支来看，2025年预计将达到约3630亿美元，同比增长约65%；2026年预计将达到约4470亿美元，继续保持强劲增长势头。华尔街的盲点：被低估的芯片营收对于英伟达、博通、AMD和Marvell等AI基础设施核心供应商而言，这意味着分析师的一致预期已经落后于现实。摩根大通认为，当前市场对这些公司2026年的收入预测并未完全反映即将到来的1500亿至1750亿美元的新增资本开支。“鉴于我们看到的对AI计算的强劲（且紧迫）需求，如果2026年数据中心资本开支最终达到60%以上的同比增长范围，我们将不会感到惊讶……这将带来目前尚未计入华尔街预测的AI收入上行空间。”简而言之，当资本开支转化为订单时，华尔街不得不再次被迫上调这些芯片巨头的盈利预期。订单积压与被忽视的“非传统”买家报告特别点名了博通和英伟达被市场误读的积压订单价值。例如，针对博通，摩根大通认为买方严重曲解了管理层关于“18个月730亿美元积压订单”的评论，低估了其转化为实际营收的速度。更为关键的是，投资者的目光往往局限于美国的四大云厂商，而忽视了其他正在崛起的力量。仅关注前4或5家美国超大规模企业的支出，并没有考虑到发生在传统超大规模企业范围之外的重大支出，包括随着规模扩大而日益具有影响力的neoclouds（新型云服务商）和主权AI项目。这意味着，除了众所周知的科技巨头，主权国家和新兴云平台正在成为支撑AI芯片需求的新支柱，这将为该行业提供比预期更长、更猛烈的增长跑道。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}