美股年末行情大反转！华尔街押注2026年经济复苏狂买滞涨板块_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美股年末行情大反转！华尔街押注2026年经济复苏狂买滞涨板块

智通财经2025-12-08

智通财经APP获悉，对股票交易员而言，每年12月通常是所谓“粉饰橱窗”的时期——加仓年内赢家股、清仓落后标的，以锁定全年业绩。然而今年的情况恰恰相反。投资者正从科技巨头阵营中抽身撤离——今年正是这些龙头股推动标普500指数全年实现17%的涨幅;与此同时，他们开始大举买入全年表现低迷的高风险小盘股，以及代表传统经济的交通运输板块个股。自11月20日美股触及短期低点以来，小盘股标杆罗素2000指数已...

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Wall Street bets on 2026 economic recovery, buying stagflation sector wildly","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"OEF":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"BAC":0.63,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":1.91,"IWM":1.87,"IVV":0.6,"SH":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，对股票交易员而言，每年12月通常是所谓“粉饰橱窗”的时期——加仓年内赢家股、清仓落后标的，以锁定全年业绩。然而今年的情况恰恰相反。投资者正从科技巨头阵营中抽身撤离——今年正是这些龙头股推动标普500指数全年实现17%的涨幅;与此同时，他们开始大举买入全年表现低迷的高风险小盘股，以及代表传统经济的交通运输板块个股。自11月20日美股触及短期低点以来，小盘股标杆罗素2000指数已累计上涨9.4%，并于周四创下历史新高;微型股指数涨幅达12%;而与经济周期高度相关的卡车运输、航运及航空股板块更是实现11%的涨幅，且连续多个交易日录得上涨。同期标普500指数的涨幅仅为5.1%。这一轮调仓换股的背后，是市场对“AI热潮普涨科技股”模式的质疑升温。英伟达(NVDA.US)、微软(MSFT.US)等科技龙头的涨势均已陷入停滞。与此同时，投资者对美国经济将在2026年上半年加速复苏的乐观预期，正促使他们弃成长、追价值，纷纷涌入此前估值偏低的价值股领域。Strategas Asset Management LLC建议客户，相较于传统市值加权版本，应超配等权重标普500指数。该公司联合创始人Jason De Sena Trennert指出，市场预期特朗普政府的税收法案将提振居民消费与企业资本开支;此外，世界杯赛事也有望在明年拉动经济增长、拓宽企业盈利空间。持有这一观点的并非Trennert一人。美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett于上周五建议客户，2026年可逢低布局估值低廉的中盘股。他的核心逻辑在于，白宫大概率将出台干预政策，平抑通胀水平并稳定失业率。其团队同时指出，与经济周期强相关的板块将迎来最佳相对收益，其中包括住宅建筑、零售、房地产投资信托基金以及运输类股。连续第三年成为华尔街策略师中最乐观的预测者、Oppenheimer Asset Management的John Stoltzfus也建议在2026年配置与经济挂钩的周期性板块，其首选包括通信服务、工业、金融和可选消费品等。他看好的逻辑基于稳健的经济增长和货币政策的宽松，并预测标普500指数明年将上涨18%，至8100点左右。11月的市场行情，已然清晰展现出领涨主线的切换。当月等权重标普500指数上涨1.7%，而传统市值加权版本的涨幅仅为0.3%。美国银行数据显示，标普500指数成分股中，市值排名前50的大型公司当月下跌0.6%，其余450家中小市值成分股则上涨1.3%。在大型科技股表现疲软的背景下，医疗保健、通信服务与原材料板块领涨11月行情。其中医疗保健板块以9.1%涨幅成为标普500表现最佳板块，信息技术板块则下跌4.4%表现垫底。从风格因子来看，11月价值股表现全面超越成长股及其他各类因子板块——这标志着今年前十个月大幅落后的价值风格实现强势逆转。美国银行股票与量化策略主管Savita Subramanian表示：“动量股同样显著跑输大盘，这或许预示着市场领涨主线的更迭，此前的常胜板块正逐步让位于昔日的滞涨标的。”Citadel Securities策略师Scott Rubner上周五也向客户表示，“市场内部的轮动行情仍在持续”，罗素2000指数已在多个交易日显著跑赢标普500指数与纳斯达克100指数。上月科技巨头发布财报后，市场对AI支出数据的担忧触发本轮轮动，使得全年落后板块迎来补涨机遇。嘉信理财宏观研究与策略主管Kevin Gordon分析称：“这属于市场的消化整固过程，在过去几年已近乎成为常态，尤其是在科技股财报季期间。”Gordon同时指出，尽管经历了一轮回调，科技板块全年累计涨幅依然可观——板块内超三分之二的成分股当前股价仍高于200日移动平均线。他补充道：“行情扩散或将持续，但过程不会一帆风顺。特别是考虑到市场中对利率更敏感的部分，可能将因美联储明年降息幅度不及预期、劳动力市场持续疲软而承压。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}