坐上算力C位的OCS光交换机，市场空间有多少？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

坐上算力C位的OCS光交换机，市场空间有多少？

估值之家2025-11-25

当谷歌在不依赖GPU、CUDA、NVLink、NVSwitch生态的条件下，诞生出全球最强AI大模型后Gemini 3 Pro，近几个交易日，以腾景科技(688195.SH)、德科立(688205.SH)、赛微电子(300456.SZ)、光库科技(300620.SZ)等为代表的OCS相关企业，与美股的“老馒头”一起，相对于英伟达产业链跑出了巨大的超额收益。图片说明：OCS相关公司较英伟达产业链公司...

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power?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"OCS":1.5,"USJW.SI":0.6,"GOOG":0.9},"content_text":"当谷歌在不依赖GPU、CUDA、NVLink、NVSwitch生态的条件下，诞生出全球最强AI大模型后Gemini 3 Pro，近几个交易日，以腾景科技(688195.SH)、德科立(688205.SH)、赛微电子(300456.SZ)、光库科技(300620.SZ)等为代表的OCS相关企业，与美股的“老馒头”一起，相对于英伟达产业链跑出了巨大的超额收益。图片说明：OCS相关公司较英伟达产业链公司超额收益明显，数据来源于Wind由于TPU产业链较短，仅涉及谷歌、博通、台积电等少数几家公司，市场的目光便更多聚焦于OCS，然而，OCS属于谷歌内部定制硬件，目前尚未大规模对外出货，因此市场上关于OCS的信息相对有限，且以信息无从考证的“小作文”居多。估值之家拟通过查阅更加专业的资料，对OCS市场进行一个简单的测算，数字未必精确，仅供参考。OCS的性能优势谷歌曾于Google Research上发表论文《Jupiter Evolving: Transforming Google's Datacenter Network via Optical Circuit Switches and Software-Defined Networking》，这是谷歌官方首次大规模公开其数据中心网络架构演进细节的权威论文。论文中明确表示：谷歌Jupiter架构（通过OCS和相关软件定义的架构），实现了5倍的速度和容量提升、资本支出降低了30%、能耗降低了41%、网络中的宕机时间减少了50倍。图片说明：OCS的性能优势，数据来源于Google Research此外，美国半导体巨头应用材料于2025年4月发表文章《Optical Circuit Switches Show Promise for More Energy-Efficient AI Data Centers》，文中明确表示，利用EEO接口和OCS可以将GPT-5的训练能耗降低79%。图片说明：TPU+OCS的性能优势，数据来源于Applied Material关于OCS与TPU的数量关系谷歌曾于2023年在ISCA上发表论文《TPUv4: An Optically Reconfigurable Supercomputer for Machine Learning with Hardware Support for Embeddings》，这篇论文是关乎谷歌TPU和OCS信息最全面的一篇文章，有关于谷歌数据中心的架构、TPU与OCS的比例、甚至OCS与英伟达NVLink和NVSwitch的对比都有涉及，是研究谷歌产业链必读的文章。图片说明：OCS与NVLink和NVSwitch的比较，数据来源于Google Research根据论文，谷歌将 64颗TPU v4 芯片组成一个4x4x4的正方体机架，这64颗TPU在机架内部通过铜缆背板进行极高速的电信号通信，这部分不占用 OCS；在机架外部通过OCS走光纤链路；一个机架有6个外立面，每个外立面引出16条光互联链路，合计96条光纤。一个标准的TPU v4集群包含64个机架，合计4096颗TPU和6144条光互联链路，而谷歌为了匹配3D Torus拓扑结构的数学整洁性，通常配置为使用128个端口，对应48个OCS。图片说明：OCS和TPU的数量关系，数据来源于Google Research换句话说，在谷歌TPU v4架构下，TPU和OCS的数量关系比例为85:1。尽管此后谷歌又发布了TPU v5等新的架构，但TPU和OCS的数量关系基本保持稳定。关于OCS单价测算及OCS的成本优势由于谷歌尚未对外销售OCS，关于OCS的成本并无公开信息可以参考，为此，半导体专业分析机构SemiAnalysis专门写了一篇分析谷歌AI数据中心的论文《Google AI Infrastructure Supremacy: Systems Matter More Than Microarchitecture》，并在论文中明确提到了：相比于直接从英伟达那里购买InfiniBand，直接从谷歌的合约制造商那里购买OCS交换机，成本要高出3.2倍~3.5倍。图片说明：OCS的单价，数据来源于SemiAnalysis通过在FS.COM查询基于博通Tomahawk系列芯片的交换机报价，目前32端口、400G白牌交换机的报价约1.5~2万美元；64端口、400G白牌交换机的报价约2.5~3万美元，64端口、800G白牌交换机的报价约4~7万美元。图片说明：64端口、400G白牌交换机的报价，数据来源于FS.COM以64端口、400G白牌交换机2.5万美元的单价为例，按照SemiAnalysis的分析，谷歌单台OCS的价格（或成本）应该在8~9万美元。不过需要特别指出的是，尽管谷歌单台OCS的生产成本高于NVIDIA的InfiniBand，但SemiAnalysis表示，同样是部署4096颗TPU和GPU，谷歌只需要48个OCS，而英伟达则需要568个InfiniBand。此外，根据Google论文所述，OCS及其底层光学组件比英伟达的InfiniBand更便宜、功耗更低、速度更快，OCS及其组件占一个标准TPU v4集群的成本小于5%、功耗小于3%。图片说明：OCS及其组件占系统成本小于5%、能效小于3%，数据来源于Google Research OCS的市场空间谷歌尚未对外出货OCS，也未公开披露谷歌自己使用了多少台OCS，这涉及商业机密。SemiAnalysis曾于2023年3月发布报告《Google OCS Apollo: The >$3 Billion Game-Changer in Datacenter Networking》，在文中明确指出，在过去五年中，谷歌已经部署了数万台136x136端口的OCS。图片说明：关于OCS的生产数量，数据来源于SemiAnalysis假设2025年谷歌新部署3万台OCS，则OCS的市场空间就是25亿美元左右。2025年10月24日谷歌与Anthropic签订了100万只TPU芯片销售协议，按85:1的比例，面向Anthropic的OCS销售量在1.2万台，对应销售额可能在10亿美元上下。重点在于，谷歌已经用Gemini 3 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