AI热潮的另一面：从SaaS轻资产转向AI重资产美国巨头们的财务挑战刚刚开始_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

AI热潮的另一面：从SaaS轻资产转向AI重资产美国巨头们的财务挑战刚刚开始

智通财经2025-11-17

智通财经APP获悉，Heard on The Street人工智能专栏的一份最新报告显示，尽管美国最大规模科技公司依然保持强劲盈利态势，但它们在人工智能领域的激进AI算力基础设施投资正开始削弱其领先于全球企业的传统财务基本面优势，财务报表可能将进入一段只见巨额AI支出而难以见强劲AI利润的时期。据悉，微软(MSFT.US)、谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOGL.US)以及亚马逊(AMZN.US)...

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Platforms，它们乃标普500指数屡创新高的核心推动力，也被华尔街顶级投资机构们视为在自互联网时代以来最大技术变革背景下最有能力为投资者们带来巨额回报的组合。然而，持续激增的AI投资正在稀释流动性：即便强如市值接近4万亿美元的老牌科技巨头微软的现金和短期投资目前约占总资产的16%，远低于2020年大约43%的强劲水平，谷歌母公司Alphabet以及亚马逊现金储备也出现了类似的下降，随着数据中心建设和AI硬件采购的大幅增加，它们的支出迅速膨胀。这些科技巨头们长期以来引以为傲的自由现金流也正在面临压力。Alphabet和亚马逊的自由现金流预计将远远低于去年，而微软的自由现金流则会在长期数据中心租赁被计入资本支出后进一步大幅降低。最新的华尔街预测数据集显示，这三家科技巨头从2023年到明年将共同在AI基础设施上花费约1万亿美元。其他科技巨头也在加大借贷力度以跟上AI热潮之中的AI算力基础设施支出步伐。Facebook母公司Meta(META.US)最近通过出售300亿美元的债券将借款翻倍，而甲骨文(ORCL.US)则在与OpenAI达成大规模云计算服务协议后，筹集了180亿美元。Heard on the Street的人工智能专栏分析师们周日指出，这些大型转变(包括现金缓冲减少、资本需求大幅增加以及杠杆率上升)正在推动大型科技公司向更加资本密集的“人工智能算力商业模式”转型。它们不再仅仅被视为高利润的单纯SaaS软件或云计算平台型轻资产公司，投资者们可能需要像评估硬件与重资产驱动型行业一样对于它们开展新的估值体系，最后的成功将取决于大型且长期的投资赌注能否像台积电和鸿海那样转化为强劲的毛利率。分析师们预计，新的评估标准将获得更多关注，例如AI算力客户们的具体采用情况、合同积压以及生成式AI应用软件服务的货币化。近期的市场反应表明，投资者们对那些AI支出尚未转化为实质利润的科技公司容忍度大幅下降：比如亚马逊股价上周下跌了约5%，而Meta股价自8月创下的最高点以来大幅下跌超20%。专栏分析师们指出，科技巨头们日益增长的投资也增加了战略失误的风险，无论是通过过度建设AI算力基础设施产能，还是支持那些未能获得市场认可的前沿创新技术。即使是如何分配AI资源，也已成为一项战略挑战。微软首席财务官曾经举例表示，该科技公司正将更多AI算力基础设施资源转移到其应用软件部门，导致可用于Azure传统云计算服务的算力资源减少。专栏分析师们总结道，大型科技公司们坚信史无前例的AI雄心壮志将能够为长期投资回报提供乐观的长期前景，但也带来了新的且可能越来越多的增长不确定性，并且随着倾向于重资产的投资周期的全面延长以及未充分利用的AI算力基础设施威胁的开始出现，大型科技巨头们的财务基本面转向趋势才刚刚开始。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}