SEA：经调整EBITDA超彭博一致预期3%；管理层上调SHOPEE GMV指引_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

SEA：经调整EBITDA超彭博一致预期3%；管理层上调SHOPEE GMV指引

中金公司2025-11-14

业绩回顾经调整EBITDA 超彭博一致预期3%；管理层上调Shopee 指引SEA 公布3Q25 业绩，整体表现稳健。期内总营收达60 亿美元，同增38%，环增14%；经调整EBITDA 为8.74 亿美元，同增68%，主因Garena 盈利超预期。管理层上调电商业务指引，将Shopee 的GMV 增长目标从“超20%”提升至“超25%”，同时重申Garena 流水增长“超30%”的指引。发展趋势...

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凭借信贷业务扩张驱动持续增长，营收同增61%至9.9亿美元。利息收入增加。公司通过多市场布局与产品多元化战略，降低对印尼市场的依赖，同时吸纳高端用户群体。Garena 靠IP 合作表现亮眼。流水达8.41 亿美元，同增51%，环增27%主要受益于Free Fire 与鱿鱼游戏及NARUTO 的联动。经调整EBITDA 为4.66 亿美元，同增48%，环增27%；支付率提升至9.8%（2Q25 为9.3%）。盈利预测与估值我们维持2025 年和2026 年营收预测基本不变，分别为228 亿美元与304 亿美元。我们认为公司有望实现2025 年业绩目标。我们维持公司2025 年与2026 年经调整EBITDA 预测不变，分别为37 亿美元与57 亿美元。我们继续采用SOTP 估值法，Shopee 增长势头强劲，给予25 倍2026 年EV/EBITDA 估值；对DFS 板块按22 倍2026 年EV/EBITDA 估值；Garena 因FreeFire 收入提速，给予16 倍2026 年EV/EBITDA 估值。我们维持跑赢行业评级，目标价193 美元，具备34.6%上行空间。风险数字娱乐板块存在储备产品创新风险；电商板块在竞争中存在不确定性。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}