谷歌云的高增长才开始！大摩：保守算，明年增速也可能超过50%_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

谷歌云的高增长才开始！大摩：保守算，明年增速也可能超过50%

华尔街见闻11-06

大摩认为，通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%，这一预测比市场普遍预期高出约15%。据追风交易台消息，大摩在11月5日的报告中表示，市场的普遍共识可能严重低估了谷歌云（Google Cloud）的增长潜力。通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”（Backlog）和“即时需求”（On-demand）两部分业务的协同增长。大摩认为...

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谋远
·11-07
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Cloud）的增长潜力。\n通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”（Backlog）和“即时需求”（On-demand）两部分业务的协同增长。大摩认为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3758831\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0251142724.SGD","symbol_name":"Fidelity America 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INC","LU2168564149.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC"},"translate_title":"The high growth of Google Cloud has just begun! Morgan Stanley: Conservatively, the growth rate may exceed 50% next year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":1.5,"GOOG":1.5,"USJW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"大摩认为，通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%，这一预测比市场普遍预期高出约15%。\n据追风交易台消息，大摩在11月5日的报告中表示，市场的普遍共识可能严重低估了谷歌云（Google Cloud）的增长潜力。\n通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”（Backlog）和“即时需求”（On-demand）两部分业务的协同增长。大摩认为，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%。云业务的持续超预期表现，将成为驱动公司估值倍数扩张和AI驱动下股价跑赢大盘的关键催化剂。\n通往50%增长之路\n大摩将谷歌云的增长动力分解为两部分：已签约但尚未确认为收入的积压订单（Backlog），以及客户即时使用的非积压订单/即时需求（On-demand）。\n历史数据显示，积压订单一直占谷歌云收入的45-50%左右，其余部分由按需业务驱动。这意味着谷歌云的按需业务在2023年和2024年分别实现了29%和37%的同比增长，2025年至今增速约为25%。\n大摩的敏感性分析表明，只要2026年净新增积压订单达到约500亿美元以上（远低于2025年预计的1060亿美元），同时按需业务保持15%以上增长，谷歌云收入增速就能突破50%。即便按需业务维持25%的同比增长，新增积压订单仅为200亿美元，也能实现50%以上的收入增速。\n具体来看，每额外增加200亿美元的2026年净积压订单增长，就能为谷歌云收入增速带来约340个基点的额外提升。同样，按需业务收入增速每提高10个百分点，就能为整体谷歌云收入增速贡献约5个百分点。\n大摩的分析显示，如果2026年实现50%以上的增长，谷歌云收入将比大摩当前预期高出4%以上，比市场一致预期高出15%以上。在最乐观情境下（新增积压订单1000亿美元，按需业务增长25%），2026年谷歌云收入增速可达64%。\nAI时代的战略价值\n摩根士丹利强调，谷歌云增长的持续性将成为推动Alphabet估值倍数扩张和AI驱动超额表现的关键驱动力。\n从积压订单构成看，截至2025年第三季度，谷歌云季度末积压订单达1580亿美元，环比第二季度的1080亿美元大幅增加500亿美元，同比增长710亿美元。\n大摩预计第四季度积压订单将进一步增至1990亿美元，全年净新增1060亿美元。进入2026年，尽管新增速度预期放缓，但基数效应和持续的按需业务增长仍将支撑整体收入的强劲增长。\n这一分析凸显了谷歌云在AI时代的战略价值，以及Alphabet通过自研TPU芯片和Gemini模型构建的差异化竞争优势。对投资者而言，谷歌云业务的超预期增长潜力，是支撑Alphabet当前估值和未来上涨空间的重要基石。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":497347775218112,"gmtCreate":1762446083125,"gmtModify":1762446085406,"author":{"id":"3458873772795444","authorId":"3458873772795444","name":"谋远","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3458873772795444","authorIdStr":"3458873772795444"},"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/497347775218112","repostId":2581824064,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2581824064","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1762428594,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2581824064?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-06 19:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"谷歌云的高增长才开始！大摩：保守算，明年增速也可能超过50%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2581824064","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩认为，通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”和“即时需求”两部分业务的协同增长。即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%。云业务的持续超预期表现，将成为驱动公司估值倍数扩张和AI驱动下股价跑赢大盘的关键催化剂。","content":"<html><body><p>大摩认为，通过对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>云收入结构的拆解，即便在相对保守的假设下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%，这一预测比市场普遍预期高出约15%。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台消息，大摩在11月5日的报告中表示，市场的普遍共识可能严重低估了谷歌云（Google Cloud）的增长潜力。</p>\n<p>通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”（Backlog）和“即时需求”（On-demand）两部分业务的协同增长。大摩认为，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%。云业务的持续超预期表现，将成为驱动公司估值倍数扩张和AI驱动下股价跑赢大盘的关键催化剂。</p>\n<h2>通往50%增长之路</h2>\n<p>大摩将谷歌云的增长动力分解为两部分：已签约但尚未确认为收入的积压订单（Backlog），以及客户即时使用的非积压订单/即时需求（On-demand）。</p>\n<p>历史数据显示，积压订单一直占谷歌云收入的45-50%左右，其余部分由按需业务驱动。<strong>这意味着谷歌云的按需业务在2023年和2024年分别实现了29%和37%的同比增长，2025年至今增速约为25%。</strong></p>\n<p>大摩的敏感性分析表明，<strong>只要2026年净新增积压订单达到约500亿美元以上（远低于2025年预计的1060亿美元），同时按需业务保持15%以上增长，谷歌云收入增速就能突破50%。即便按需业务维持25%的同比增长，新增积压订单仅为200亿美元，也能实现50%以上的收入增速。</strong><strong><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7c33f563-1b60-4554-aa9b-96c958ec8a37.png\"/></strong></p>\n<p>具体来看，<strong>每额外增加200亿美元的2026年净积压订单增长，就能为谷歌云收入增速带来约340个基点的额外提升。</strong>同样，按需业务收入增速每提高10个百分点，就能为整体谷歌云收入增速贡献约5个百分点。</p>\n<p>大摩的分析显示，如果2026年实现50%以上的增长，谷歌云收入将比大摩当前预期高出4%以上，比市场一致预期高出15%以上。<strong>在最乐观情境下（新增积压订单1000亿美元，按需业务增长25%），2026年谷歌云收入增速可达64%。</strong></p>\n<h2>AI时代的战略价值</h2>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>强调，谷歌云增长的持续性将成为推动Alphabet估值倍数扩张和AI驱动超额表现的关键驱动力。</p>\n<p>从积压订单构成看，截至2025年第三季度，谷歌云季度末积压订单达1580亿美元，环比第二季度的1080亿美元大幅增加500亿美元，同比增长710亿美元。</p>\n<p>大摩预计第四季度积压订单将进一步增至1990亿美元，全年净新增1060亿美元。进入2026年，尽管新增速度预期放缓，但基数效应和持续的按需业务增长仍将支撑整体收入的强劲增长。</p>\n<p>这一分析凸显了谷歌云在AI时代的战略价值，以及Alphabet通过自研TPU芯片和Gemini模型构建的差异化竞争优势。对投资者而言，谷歌云业务的超预期增长潜力，是支撑Alphabet当前估值和未来上涨空间的重要基石。</p>\n<div>\n<div> </div>\n</div></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌云的高增长才开始！大摩：保守算，明年增速也可能超过50%</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌云的高增长才开始！大摩：保守算，明年增速也可能超过50%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-06 19:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3758831><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大摩认为，通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%，这一预测比市场普遍预期高出约15%。\n据追风交易台消息，大摩在11月5日的报告中表示，市场的普遍共识可能严重低估了谷歌云（Google Cloud）的增长潜力。\n通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”（Backlog）和“即时需求”（On-demand）两部分业务的协同增长。大摩认为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3758831\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0203202063.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A2X\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","LU1633808545.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL EQUITY GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1069347547.HKD":"AB SICAV I - GLOBAL VALUE PORTFOLIO \"AD\" (HKD) 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DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC","LU1935042488.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET DIVERSIFIED INCOME  \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2168564149.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3758831","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2581824064","content_text":"大摩认为，通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%，这一预测比市场普遍预期高出约15%。\n据追风交易台消息，大摩在11月5日的报告中表示，市场的普遍共识可能严重低估了谷歌云（Google Cloud）的增长潜力。\n通过对谷歌云收入结构的拆解，即“积压订单”（Backlog）和“即时需求”（On-demand）两部分业务的协同增长。大摩认为，即便在相对保守的假设下，谷歌云在2026年的营收增长率极有可能超过50%。云业务的持续超预期表现，将成为驱动公司估值倍数扩张和AI驱动下股价跑赢大盘的关键催化剂。\n通往50%增长之路\n大摩将谷歌云的增长动力分解为两部分：已签约但尚未确认为收入的积压订单（Backlog），以及客户即时使用的非积压订单/即时需求（On-demand）。\n历史数据显示，积压订单一直占谷歌云收入的45-50%左右，其余部分由按需业务驱动。这意味着谷歌云的按需业务在2023年和2024年分别实现了29%和37%的同比增长，2025年至今增速约为25%。\n大摩的敏感性分析表明，只要2026年净新增积压订单达到约500亿美元以上（远低于2025年预计的1060亿美元），同时按需业务保持15%以上增长，谷歌云收入增速就能突破50%。即便按需业务维持25%的同比增长，新增积压订单仅为200亿美元，也能实现50%以上的收入增速。\n具体来看，每额外增加200亿美元的2026年净积压订单增长，就能为谷歌云收入增速带来约340个基点的额外提升。同样，按需业务收入增速每提高10个百分点，就能为整体谷歌云收入增速贡献约5个百分点。\n大摩的分析显示，如果2026年实现50%以上的增长，谷歌云收入将比大摩当前预期高出4%以上，比市场一致预期高出15%以上。在最乐观情境下（新增积压订单1000亿美元，按需业务增长25%），2026年谷歌云收入增速可达64%。\nAI时代的战略价值\n摩根士丹利强调，谷歌云增长的持续性将成为推动Alphabet估值倍数扩张和AI驱动超额表现的关键驱动力。\n从积压订单构成看，截至2025年第三季度，谷歌云季度末积压订单达1580亿美元，环比第二季度的1080亿美元大幅增加500亿美元，同比增长710亿美元。\n大摩预计第四季度积压订单将进一步增至1990亿美元，全年净新增1060亿美元。进入2026年，尽管新增速度预期放缓，但基数效应和持续的按需业务增长仍将支撑整体收入的强劲增长。\n这一分析凸显了谷歌云在AI时代的战略价值，以及Alphabet通过自研TPU芯片和Gemini模型构建的差异化竞争优势。对投资者而言，谷歌云业务的超预期增长潜力，是支撑Alphabet当前估值和未来上涨空间的重要基石。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":1.5,"GOOG":1.5,"USJW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}