大摩：“美元熊市”才走到一半_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

大摩：“美元熊市”才走到一半

华尔街见闻09-09

在市场普遍认为美元已触底反弹之际，摩根士丹利发布研报称，美元熊市远未结束，当前跌势“仅仅行至中途”。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利9月7日发布的报告显示，市场对美元的乐观情绪主要源于几个方面：一是认为美国经济比预期中更能吸收进口关税带来的冲击，二是美国股市再次跑赢全球同行，三是欧洲和亚洲经济增长面临关税的负面影响，以及部分经济体的财政健康问题令投资者不安。然而，大摩策略师James K Lord在...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

暂无评论

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2566657583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b42ae1719bdd62198db131f3bcb546ac","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-09-09 11:33","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2566657583","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"大摩：“美元熊市”才走到一半","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>在市场普遍认为美元已触底反弹之际，摩根士丹利发布研报称，美元熊市远未结束，当前跌势“仅仅行至中途”。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利9月7日发布的报告显示，市场对美元的乐观情绪主要源于几个方面：一是认为美国经济比预期中更能吸收进口关税带来的冲击，二是美国股市再次跑赢全球同行，三是欧洲和亚洲经济增长面临关税的负面影响，以及部分经济体的财政健康问题令投资者不安。然而，大摩策略师James K Lord在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755213\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩：“美元熊市”才走到一半</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩：“美元熊市”才走到一半\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-09 11:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755213><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在市场普遍认为美元已触底反弹之际，摩根士丹利发布研报称，美元熊市远未结束，当前跌势“仅仅行至中途”。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利9月7日发布的报告显示，市场对美元的乐观情绪主要源于几个方面：一是认为美国经济比预期中更能吸收进口关税带来的冲击，二是美国股市再次跑赢全球同行，三是欧洲和亚洲经济增长面临关税的负面影响，以及部分经济体的财政健康问题令投资者不安。然而，大摩策略师James K Lord在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755213\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0267386448.USD","symbol_name":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755213","article_id":"2566657583","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/b42ae1719bdd62198db131f3bcb546ac"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3755213","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2566657583","pubTimestamp":1757388787,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"大摩认为，美元熊市远未结束。尽管市场对美国经济韧性及股市表现持乐观态度，但这些观点忽视了美元的长期下行风险。美联储对高通胀的容忍将侵蚀实际收益率，加之美国经济增长放缓、全球央行政策分化以及外资对冲需求增加，美元面临多重压力。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2271345857.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0795875169.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD-H","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU0006306889.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" (USD) INC AV","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) ACC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1162221912.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC"},"translate_title":"Morgan Stanley: The \"dollar bear market\" is only halfway through","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2ecac08e87c8ee525166d9544b2907d","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"在市场普遍认为美元已触底反弹之际，摩根士丹利发布研报称，美元熊市远未结束，当前跌势“仅仅行至中途”。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利9月7日发布的报告显示，市场对美元的乐观情绪主要源于几个方面：一是认为美国经济比预期中更能吸收进口关税带来的冲击，二是美国股市再次跑赢全球同行，三是欧洲和亚洲经济增长面临关税的负面影响，以及部分经济体的财政健康问题令投资者不安。然而，大摩策略师James K Lord在报告中指出，这些看似有说服力的论点忽略了美元的长期前景。该行坚信，美元的下行趋势并未结束，恰恰相反，其跌势“ barely halfway through”（仅仅走完一半）。美联储容忍更高通胀，实际收益率承压侵蚀美元根基报告的核心论点直指美联储的政策转变。大摩的美国经济团队认为，美联储现在“更愿意忍受更高通胀的威胁”。这意味着，如果市场利率在美联储引导下进一步走低，而通胀由于关税向消费价格的传导而顽固地保持在目标之上，那么美国的实际收益率将会被侵蚀。报告强调，根据其同事David Adams著名的四象限框架，实际收益率的侵蚀是“美元的历史性逆风”。此外，市场对美联储加大宽松的定价风险显著，该行利率团队持续做多5年期美债，预期曲线前端将定价更深的降息周期。“美国例外论”难以为继，经济放缓已现端倪支撑美元的另一大支柱——“美国经济卓越论”同样面临质疑。大摩的基线观点是，到2025年第四季度，美国GDP增长率将放缓至1%左右，并在2026年仅略高于此水平。报告认为，这样的增长率很难支撑“美国将跑赢世界其他地区”的论点。最新疲软就业报告更显示招聘陷入停滞，增长下行风险凸显。低利率环境还将激励持有美元资产的外国投资者加大汇率对冲，这一行为转变势必加剧美元弱势。央行政策分化与对冲需求：美元的“双重压力”全球主要央行的政策分化，正成为压垮美元的另一根稻草。报告分析称，当美联储“降低了降息的门槛”时，欧洲央行（ECB）却“提高了它”，而英国央行（BoE）最近的表态也“更偏鹰派”。这种组合显然有利于美元走弱。更深层次看，治理与机构独立性疑虑浮现，这些历史上支撑美元储备地位的因素正在动摇。白宫经济顾问委员会主席Miran亦承认，美元特权地位给美国带来代价。看空美元的怀疑论者常强调欧洲财政风险，却忽视美国同样难以置身事外。此外，较低的美国利率将进一步激励持有美元资产的外国投资者进行汇率对冲。大摩预计，这一投资者行为的转变将成为推动美元走弱的又一因素。总而言之，摩根士丹利认为，美元面临的关键风险在于增长前景以及货币和公共政策的不确定性。该行维持其观点，即美元将在今年余下的时间里走弱。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}