七年来首次温和涨价？大摩：下周的苹果发布会，所有目光聚焦iPhone 17定价_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

七年来首次温和涨价？大摩：下周的苹果发布会，所有目光聚焦iPhone 17定价

华尔街见闻09-05

摩根士丹利预测，苹果可能通过取消Pro版128GB入门配置、推出起价更高的超薄机型等方式，实现七年来首次“温和涨价”，推动iPhone平均售价增长5%，将远超市场预期的1%。这一策略若成真，不仅有望抵消成本压力，还可能打破“发布会后股价下跌”的魔咒，成为年底前推动苹果股价上涨的积极催化剂。随着苹果秋季发布会临近，投资者的目光正越过新产品本身，聚焦于一个更关键的问题：价格。据追风交易台消息，...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754992><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利预测，苹果可能通过取消Pro版128GB入门配置、推出起价更高的超薄机型等方式，实现七年来首次“温和涨价”，推动iPhone平均售价增长5%，将远超市场预期的1%。这一策略若成真，不仅有望抵消成本压力，还可能打破“发布会后股价下跌”的魔咒，成为年底前推动苹果股价上涨的积极催化剂。随着苹果秋季发布会临近，投资者的目光正越过新产品本身，聚焦于一个更关键的问题：价格。据追风交易台消息，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754992\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0820561909.HKD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) 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Morgan Stanley: Next week's Apple conference, all eyes are on iPhone 17 pricing","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39450a370e616ecbb96e371f5fa87c72","symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1},"content_text":"摩根士丹利预测，苹果可能通过取消Pro版128GB入门配置、推出起价更高的超薄机型等方式，实现七年来首次“温和涨价”，推动iPhone平均售价增长5%，将远超市场预期的1%。这一策略若成真，不仅有望抵消成本压力，还可能打破“发布会后股价下跌”的魔咒，成为年底前推动苹果股价上涨的积极催化剂。随着苹果秋季发布会临近，投资者的目光正越过新产品本身，聚焦于一个更关键的问题：价格。据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在9月4日发布的报告中指出，苹果或将通过一系列微妙的产品线调整，实现七年以来对iPhone的首次“温和涨价”。而这可能成为公司股价上涨的催化剂。分析师Erik W Woodring预测，即将发布的iPhone 17系列虽然在产品功能上可能不会带来太多意外，但其定价策略可能是整场活动的核心看点。该行预计，苹果不会直接上调现有型号的同配置价格，而是通过更巧妙的方式提升整体售价。这一策略的关键在于两点。首先，报告预测苹果将取消iPhone 17 Pro的128GB入门级存储版本，这意味着Pro系列的起步存储容量将变为256GB，其起步价也将随之升至1099美元，较前代999美元（128GB）的起步价提高100美元。其次，备受关注的新款超薄机型iPhone 17 Air起售价预计为999美元（256GB），这比它所取代的iPhone 16 Plus机型高出100美元。同时，iPhone 17 Air将新增1TB版本（定价1399美元），而其他型号的同容量价格保持不变。涨价逻辑：抵消关税及成本压力报告分析，涨价主要源于两个因素：一是抵消进口关税和零部件价格上涨带来的成本压力，二是通过存储配置调整驱动用户选择更高价位机型。这一潜在的定价举措，是摩根士丹利看好苹果业绩前景的核心原因。该行预测，此举将推动苹果2026财年的iPhone平均售价（ASP）同比增长5%至939美元。相比之下，市场普遍预期仅为增长1%至910美元，暗示着苹果的营收和利润潜力可能被低估。由于市场共识对iPhone销量和价格增长的预期相对平淡，此次发布会可能一反常态，扭转以往发布会引发的“卖出事件”，转变为一个积极的催化剂，为苹果股价在年底前的表现提供支撑。尽管价格上调，分析师认为其影响可控：“这些涨幅较为温和，若分摊到2-3年的换机周期后，不太可能对（消费者的购买）需求构成实质性阻碍。”发布会本身惊喜不大报告认为，此次发布会预计不会出现重大意外。iPhone 17系列将包括常规的iPhone 17、iPhone 17 Pro/Pro Max，以及全新超薄机型iPhone 17 Air，其采用单后置摄像头和苹果自研C1调制解调器。此外，苹果还将推出Apple Watch Series 11、Ultra 3、SE 3和AirPods Pro 3。销量预期保守，或存上行空间尽管价格看涨，摩根士丹利与市场共识目前对iPhone 17的销量增长均持保守态度，预计2026财年出货量将与前一年基本持平，约为2.36亿部。这一预测意味着用户的平均换机周期将进一步拉长至接近5年。然而，报告同时指出，这一保守预期本身可能蕴含着上行风险。摩根士丹利引用其早前的调查数据称，截至2025年3月，有51%的美国iPhone用户表示在未来12个月内“极有可能”升级设备，创下历史新高。此外，30%的美国iPhone用户对超薄机型表现出“极大兴趣”。不过，价格敏感性依然是一个需要警惕的风险。一份于2025年7月在中国进行的调查显示，如果iPhone 17价格上涨5%，25%的中国消费者表示他们升级的可能性会降低。综合来看，分析师认为当前的出货量预期设定合理，但未来的风险更偏向于上行而非下行。打破“卖出新闻”魔咒？从历史上看，苹果的iPhone发布会往往是“卖出新闻”（sell the news）的典型事件，即股价在事件兑现后出现回调。这通常是因为市场预期在发布会前已被充分计价，甚至过度乐观。但摩根士丹利认为，今年的情况可能有所不同。报告分析称，当前市场对苹果2026财年iPhone收入增长的普遍预期仅为4%，远低于过去十年的历史平均水平，2011-2020年间同期平均预期为9%。因此，如果摩根士丹利关于定价策略的判断是正确的，那么iPhone 17的发布会结果很可能超出市场偏低的预期。届时，这一事件不仅不会成为负面催化剂，反而可能引发分析师上调盈利预测，为苹果股价在年底前的表现提供支撑，从而打破近年来的“发布会魔咒”。报告总结称：“若定价策略超预期，发布会可能成为股价的积极催化剂，推动估值修复和业绩上修。”摩根士丹利对苹果股票评级为“增持”，目标价240美元。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}