大摩警告：市场低估美国衰退风险，美联储降息幅度或超预期，看好美债后续走势_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

大摩警告：市场低估美国衰退风险，美联储降息幅度或超预期，看好美债后续走势

华尔街见闻2025-08-30

摩根士丹利认为，市场低估了美国温和衰退的风险，美联储或更快更猛降息。 8月29日周五，据追风交易台，摩根士丹利发布最新研报表示，如果未来美国经济增长下滑，甚至进入温和衰退，美联储可能被迫大幅降息来救市，而市场还没有完全反映出这种可能性。在基准情境下，大摩预计美联储将从2025年9月起，每隔一次会议降息25个基点，至2026年底利率落在2.625%。同时提出三种替代情境，财政刺激下经济过热的概率是...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754590><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为，市场低估了美国温和衰退的风险，美联储或更快更猛降息。\n8月29日周五，据追风交易台，摩根士丹利发布最新研报表示，如果未来美国经济增长下滑，甚至进入温和衰退，美联储可能被迫大幅降息来救市，而市场还没有完全反映出这种可能性。\n在基准情境下，大摩预计美联储将从2025年9月起，每隔一次会议降息25个基点，至2026年底利率落在2.625%。同时提出三种替代情境，财政刺激下经济过热的概率是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754590\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BND","symbol_name":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754590","article_id":"2563001906","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/cadcfb88697d09bb90cb85e829df2277"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754590","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2563001906","pubTimestamp":1756531161,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"摩根士丹利认为，投资者低估了“美联储将迅速降息”的可能性。如果市场相信未来美国会温和衰退，或美联储能容忍更高通胀的概率变高，那就更应该布局长端债券，或做利率曲线变陡策略，包括做多5年期美债，或买入2026年1月的联邦基金利率期货。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR 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debt","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03b2da391e195670527b09181509626f","symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":1,"ZFmain":1,"GOVT":0.6,"UTWY":1,"TNmain":1,"BND":1,"ZNmain":1,"UTHY":1,"ZBmain":1,"SHY":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"UFIV":1,"ZTmain":1,"IEI":0.6,"USVN":1,"UTRE":1},"content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，市场低估了美国温和衰退的风险，美联储或更快更猛降息。\n8月29日周五，据追风交易台，摩根士丹利发布最新研报表示，如果未来美国经济增长下滑，甚至进入温和衰退，美联储可能被迫大幅降息来救市，而市场还没有完全反映出这种可能性。\n在基准情境下，大摩预计美联储将从2025年9月起，每隔一次会议降息25个基点，至2026年底利率落在2.625%。同时提出三种替代情境，财政刺激下经济过热的概率是10%、消费强劲但美联储容忍通胀的概率是10%、温和衰退的概率是30%。\n大摩指出，市场当前低估了衰退可能，这与美国劳动力市场的下行风险并不匹配。一旦后续市场对温和衰退赋予更高概率，2026年底的联邦基金利率或比当前定价再低近100个基点。因此大摩建议投资者提前布局中长期美债，并采用收益率曲线陡峭化策略。\n大摩调整基准情境：9月起每隔一次会议降息\n根据鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的发言，摩根士丹利的美国经济学家更新了美联储政策预测。\n他们现在预计，2025年9月FOMC会议首次降息25个基点，然后每隔一次会议降息25bp，一直持续到2026年底，比如，9月降、11月不动、12月降、明年3月再降……\n虽然相比此前预测，降息节奏明显加快，但利率的最终落点仍维持在2026年底为2.625%。\n三大替代情境：温和衰退概率高达30%\n与此同时，大摩预测了美联储三种可能发生的利率路径，并赋予未来发生的概率。\n第一种情况是政府扩大财政刺激，加上消费者和企业信心爆棚，这样就导致经济变得更热，美联储可能不降息，甚至考虑再次加息。未来发生这种情况的概率是10%。\n第二种情况是人们消费热情高涨，但美联储“睁一只眼闭一只眼”，通胀容忍度变高。结果就是，美联储可能还是会降息，但不会太快太深。未来发生这种情况的概率是10%。\n第三种情况是出现贸易冲击，或者资本流动出问题，很多企业突然融资不到钱，甚至进入温和衰退，美联储被迫大幅降息来救市，甚至一次降50bp。未来发生这种情况的概率是30%。\n大摩指出，目前市场隐含的利率路径对鸽派情境（如经济放缓）只赋予了约20%的权重，这与美国劳动力市场的下行风险并不匹配。一旦投资者开始对这些“鸽派情境”赋予更高概率，尤其是美国温和衰退或美联储变得更“容忍通胀”的情形，市场对2026年底的联邦基金利率定价可能较当前水平再下调近100个基点。\n大摩认为，在此背景下，那就更应该布局长端债券，或做利率曲线变陡策略，包括做多5年期美债，或买入2026年1月的联邦基金利率期货。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}