外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万

华尔街见闻08-06

新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。外卖平台补贴大战正在重塑新茶饮行业格局。据追风交易台消息，8月5日高盛最新研报显示，得益于外卖补贴持续时间超预期，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

平易进财
·08-06
1.5元一杯谁在赔钱？
回复
1
举报
超级主力
·08-06
蜜雪冰城要多难喝有多难喝[生气]
回复
1
举报
收起
- 拒绝游泳的鱼:
  我搞了杯免费的柠檬水，喝了二口就扔了，要是要钱谁会买。
  08-07
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2557349346?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2faeaf3dc3d480a0374990517b2947a","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2025-08-06 10:39","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2557349346","market":"sg","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。外卖平台补贴大战正在重塑新茶饮行业格局。据追风交易台消息，8月5日高盛最新研报显示，得益于外卖补贴持续时间超预期，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-06 10:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。外卖平台补贴大战正在重塑新茶饮行业格局。据追风交易台消息，8月5日高盛最新研报显示，得益于外卖补贴持续时间超预期，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0211977185.USD","symbol_name":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736","article_id":"2557349346","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2faeaf3dc3d480a0374990517b2947a"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2557349346","pubTimestamp":1754447975,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","02097":"蜜雪集团","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1233":"餐馆","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2488822045.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA HEALTHY LIVING \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK1616":"咖啡茶饮","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","01364":"古茗"},"translate_title":"The \"beneficiaries\" of the food delivery war: Goldman Sachs predicts that Gu Ming will earn 200 million more this year, and Michelle will earn 50 million more","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd0579b193fc35325624799081b7b45","symbols_score_info":{"02097":1.1,"01364":1},"content_text":"新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。外卖平台补贴大战正在重塑新茶饮行业格局。据追风交易台消息，8月5日高盛最新研报显示，得益于外卖补贴持续时间超预期，古茗2025年净利润预测上调9%至22亿元人民币，相当于多赚约2亿元。蜜雪冰城净利润预测上调1%至54亿元人民币，多赚约5000万元。外卖平台竞争自4月京东推出\"100亿元外卖补贴\"计划后持续升级。美团和饿了么随后跟进，据高盛互联网团队估算，三大平台仅在第二季度的总投资就达到250亿元人民币（30亿美元），推动日均外卖订单量在二季度超过1亿单，同比增长27%。新茶饮品类成为此轮补贴的最大受益者。7月上半月各平台推出更激进的补贴政策，包括免费新茶饮优惠券。研报指出，短期内补贴提振了新茶饮品牌的门店销售额增长，但2026年补贴退出后可能面临增长回落。高盛分析认为，补贴正常化后行业整合将加速，供应链和品牌优势突出的龙头企业将受益。新茶饮门店扩张提速，行业整合趋势受扰补贴竞争为表现不佳的品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱了行业整合趋势。根据窄门数据，7月行业门店数量环比增长加速。品牌层面，古茗和幸运咖在过去几个月加速门店扩张，库迪5月恢复正增长并在近两月进一步提速。茶百道和奈雪的茶虽仍有净关店，但改善的同店销售表现可能导致关店计划延后和开店计划增加。价格方面，平台补贴和品牌拓展新品类的双重推动下，市场价格活动增加。星巴克6月将非咖啡饮品价格下调2-6元人民币，古茗6月推出8.9元人民币咖啡活动。盈利预测上调：古茗和蜜雪受益程度不同由于外卖补贴持续时间超预期延续至第三季度，高盛上调两家公司2025年盈利预测。古茗受益更为明显，因其外卖占比相对更高：古茗：2025年经调整净利润预测从20.06亿人民币上调至21.89亿人民币，增幅达9.2%。这主要得益于单店GMV增长预测的上调（从6%上调至13%）。不同情境分析显示，如果外卖补贴持续至四季度，古茗单店GMV增长可能达到10%-25%，远超当前预期的13%。每1%的单店GMV增长将直接转化为1%的净利润增长。为反映此利好，高盛将其12个月目标价从29.2港元微调至30.0港元。蜜雪冰城：2025年经调整净利润预测从53.74亿人民币上调至54.24亿人民币，增幅为1%。增长驱动力包括其中国市场单店GMV 6%的同比增长，以及旗下幸运咖（Lucky Cup）品牌的超预期扩张。12个月目标价也从597港元微调至599港元。2026年风险评估：补贴退潮影响有限投资者最大的担忧在于“补贴退潮”后的影响。高盛对此进行了详细的情景分析，指出由于2025年的高基数效应，2026年单店GMV增长将面临压力。如果2026年外卖补贴完全退出，假设基于2%增长率和30%的2025年补贴提振订单保留率，古茗单店GMV可能同比下滑5%，蜜雪下滑1%。对于受影响更大的古茗，高盛认为其咖啡和早餐等品类扩张能够对冲部分影响。而蜜雪凭借更低的外卖占比，受冲击相对温和。短期内，投资者情绪将受到外卖平台策略变化影响，古茗8月11日解禁期到期和夏季后的淡季也可能限制股价表现。但从长期看，补贴正常化可能改善竞争格局，两家公司的核心优势依然突出。蜜雪的强劲价格优势、供应链能力和下沉市场渗透能力支撑其长期发展；古茗的新品研发、品牌建设投资和供应链实力将助其探索空白市场，特别是在仅在部分省份达到关键规模的背景下。高盛强调，外卖补贴战虽然带来短期波动，但对于具备核心竞争力的头部新茶饮品牌而言，更像是一次市场份额重新分配的机遇。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":464624537551376,"gmtCreate":1754458662040,"gmtModify":1754458663908,"author":{"id":"3531263342349168","authorId":"3531263342349168","name":"平易进财","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9447873eead8ea88af59e62c65d7b304","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/717a877921e5ed88700305c37737450d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3531263342349168","authorIdStr":"3531263342349168"},"htmlText":"1.5元一杯谁在赔钱？","listText":"1.5元一杯谁在赔钱？","text":"1.5元一杯谁在赔钱？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464624537551376","repostId":2557349346,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2557349346","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1754447975,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2557349346?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-06 10:39","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2557349346","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。</p></blockquote><p>外卖平台补贴大战正在重塑新茶饮行业格局。</p><p>据追风交易台消息，8月5日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>最新研报显示，得益于外卖补贴持续时间超预期，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01364\">古茗</a>2025年净利润预测上调9%至22亿元人民币，相当于多赚约2亿元。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02097\">蜜雪</a>冰城净利润预测上调1%至54亿元人民币，多赚约5000万元</strong>。</p><p>外卖平台竞争自4月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>推出&#34;100亿元外卖补贴&#34;计划后持续升级。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>和饿了么随后跟进，据高盛互联网团队估算，三大平台仅在第二季度的总投资就达到250亿元人民币（30亿美元），推动日均外卖订单量在二季度超过1亿单，同比增长27%。</p><p>新茶饮品类成为此轮补贴的最大受益者。7月上半月各平台推出更激进的补贴政策，包括免费新茶饮优惠券。</p><p>研报指出，短期内补贴提振了新茶饮品牌的门店销售额增长，但2026年补贴退出后可能面临增长回落。高盛分析认为，<strong>补贴正常化后行业整合将加速，供应链和品牌优势突出的龙头企业将受益</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_1642258076\">新茶饮门店扩张提速，行业整合趋势受扰</h2><p>补贴竞争为表现不佳的品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱了行业整合趋势。</p><p>根据窄门数据，7月行业门店数量环比增长加速。</p><p><strong>品牌层面</strong>，古茗和幸运咖在过去几个月加速门店扩张，库迪5月恢复正增长并在近两月进一步提速。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02555\">茶百道</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02150\">奈雪的茶</a>虽仍有净关店，但改善的同店销售表现可能导致关店计划延后和开店计划增加。</p><p><strong>价格方面</strong>，平台补贴和品牌拓展新品类的双重推动下，市场价格活动增加。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>6月将非咖啡饮品价格下调2-6元人民币，古茗6月推出8.9元人民币咖啡活动。</p><h2 id=\"id_4270030170\">盈利预测上调：古茗和蜜雪受益程度不同</h2><p>由于外卖补贴持续时间超预期延续至第三季度，高盛上调两家公司2025年盈利预测。<strong>古茗受益更为明显，因其外卖占比相对更高：</strong></p><blockquote><p><strong>古茗</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>2025年经调整净利润预测从20.06亿人民币上调至21.89亿人民币，增幅达9.2%。</strong>这主要得益于单店GMV增长预测的上调（从6%上调至13%）。</p></li><li><p>不同情境分析显示，如果外卖补贴持续至四季度，古茗单店GMV增长可能达到10%-25%，远超当前预期的13%。每1%的单店GMV增长将直接转化为1%的净利润增长。</p></li><li><p>为反映此利好，<strong>高盛将其12个月目标价从29.2港元微调至30.0港元。</strong></p></li></ul><p><strong>蜜雪冰城</strong>：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>2025年经调整净利润预测从53.74亿人民币上调至54.24亿人民币，增幅为1%。</strong></p></li><li><p>增长驱动力包括其中国市场单店GMV 6%的同比增长，以及旗下幸运咖（Lucky Cup）品牌的超预期扩张。</p></li><li><p>12个月目标价也<strong>从597港元微调至599港元。</strong></p></li></ul></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1371132829\">2026年风险评估：补贴退潮影响有限</h2><p>投资者最大的担忧在于“补贴退潮”后的影响。高盛对此进行了详细的情景分析，指出由于2025年的高基数效应，2026年单店GMV增长将面临压力。</p><p>如果2026年外卖补贴完全退出，<strong>假设基于2%增长率和30%的2025年补贴提振订单保留率，古茗单店GMV可能同比下滑5%，蜜雪下滑1%。</strong></p><p>对于受影响更大的古茗，高盛认为其咖啡和早餐等品类扩张能够对冲部分影响。而蜜雪凭借更低的外卖占比，受冲击相对温和。</p><p><strong>短期内</strong>，投资者情绪将受到外卖平台策略变化影响，古茗8月11日解禁期到期和夏季后的淡季也可能限制股价表现。</p><p><strong>但从长期看</strong>，补贴正常化可能改善竞争格局，两家公司的核心优势依然突出。</p><p><strong>蜜雪的强劲价格优势、供应链能力和下沉市场渗透能力支撑其长期发展；古茗的新品研发、品牌建设投资和供应链实力将助其探索空白市场，特别是在仅在部分省份达到关键规模的背景下。</strong></p><p>高盛强调，外卖补贴战虽然带来短期波动，但对于具备核心竞争力的头部新茶饮品牌而言，更像是一次市场份额重新分配的机遇。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外卖大战的“受益者”：高盛预测古茗今年多赚2亿，蜜雪多赚5000万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-06 10:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。外卖平台补贴大战正在重塑新茶饮行业格局。据追风交易台消息，8月5日高盛最新研报显示，得益于外卖补贴持续时间超预期，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2faeaf3dc3d480a0374990517b2947a","relate_stocks":{"LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","02097":"蜜雪集团","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1233":"餐馆","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2488822045.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA HEALTHY LIVING \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK1616":"咖啡茶饮","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","01364":"古茗"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3752736","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2557349346","content_text":"新茶饮品类成为此轮外卖补贴的最大受益者，高盛上调古茗和蜜雪冰城今年盈利预测，上调幅度分别为9%和1%。高盛认为，补贴为表现不佳品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱原有行业整合趋势。补贴退潮后，单店增长将承压，行业整合步伐将恢复，具备供应链和品牌优势的古茗和蜜雪等头部品牌将从中受益。外卖平台补贴大战正在重塑新茶饮行业格局。据追风交易台消息，8月5日高盛最新研报显示，得益于外卖补贴持续时间超预期，古茗2025年净利润预测上调9%至22亿元人民币，相当于多赚约2亿元。蜜雪冰城净利润预测上调1%至54亿元人民币，多赚约5000万元。外卖平台竞争自4月京东推出\"100亿元外卖补贴\"计划后持续升级。美团和饿了么随后跟进，据高盛互联网团队估算，三大平台仅在第二季度的总投资就达到250亿元人民币（30亿美元），推动日均外卖订单量在二季度超过1亿单，同比增长27%。新茶饮品类成为此轮补贴的最大受益者。7月上半月各平台推出更激进的补贴政策，包括免费新茶饮优惠券。研报指出，短期内补贴提振了新茶饮品牌的门店销售额增长，但2026年补贴退出后可能面临增长回落。高盛分析认为，补贴正常化后行业整合将加速，供应链和品牌优势突出的龙头企业将受益。新茶饮门店扩张提速，行业整合趋势受扰补贴竞争为表现不佳的品牌提供支撑，减缓了门店关闭速度，打乱了行业整合趋势。根据窄门数据，7月行业门店数量环比增长加速。品牌层面，古茗和幸运咖在过去几个月加速门店扩张，库迪5月恢复正增长并在近两月进一步提速。茶百道和奈雪的茶虽仍有净关店，但改善的同店销售表现可能导致关店计划延后和开店计划增加。价格方面，平台补贴和品牌拓展新品类的双重推动下，市场价格活动增加。星巴克6月将非咖啡饮品价格下调2-6元人民币，古茗6月推出8.9元人民币咖啡活动。盈利预测上调：古茗和蜜雪受益程度不同由于外卖补贴持续时间超预期延续至第三季度，高盛上调两家公司2025年盈利预测。古茗受益更为明显，因其外卖占比相对更高：古茗：2025年经调整净利润预测从20.06亿人民币上调至21.89亿人民币，增幅达9.2%。这主要得益于单店GMV增长预测的上调（从6%上调至13%）。不同情境分析显示，如果外卖补贴持续至四季度，古茗单店GMV增长可能达到10%-25%，远超当前预期的13%。每1%的单店GMV增长将直接转化为1%的净利润增长。为反映此利好，高盛将其12个月目标价从29.2港元微调至30.0港元。蜜雪冰城：2025年经调整净利润预测从53.74亿人民币上调至54.24亿人民币，增幅为1%。增长驱动力包括其中国市场单店GMV 6%的同比增长，以及旗下幸运咖（Lucky Cup）品牌的超预期扩张。12个月目标价也从597港元微调至599港元。2026年风险评估：补贴退潮影响有限投资者最大的担忧在于“补贴退潮”后的影响。高盛对此进行了详细的情景分析，指出由于2025年的高基数效应，2026年单店GMV增长将面临压力。如果2026年外卖补贴完全退出，假设基于2%增长率和30%的2025年补贴提振订单保留率，古茗单店GMV可能同比下滑5%，蜜雪下滑1%。对于受影响更大的古茗，高盛认为其咖啡和早餐等品类扩张能够对冲部分影响。而蜜雪凭借更低的外卖占比，受冲击相对温和。短期内，投资者情绪将受到外卖平台策略变化影响，古茗8月11日解禁期到期和夏季后的淡季也可能限制股价表现。但从长期看，补贴正常化可能改善竞争格局，两家公司的核心优势依然突出。蜜雪的强劲价格优势、供应链能力和下沉市场渗透能力支撑其长期发展；古茗的新品研发、品牌建设投资和供应链实力将助其探索空白市场，特别是在仅在部分省份达到关键规模的背景下。高盛强调，外卖补贴战虽然带来短期波动，但对于具备核心竞争力的头部新茶饮品牌而言，更像是一次市场份额重新分配的机遇。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02097":1.1,"01364":1}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":464603143507992,"gmtCreate":1754453656308,"gmtModify":1754453658079,"author":{"id":"307941910291466","authorId":"307941910291466","name":"超级主力","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"307941910291466","authorIdStr":"307941910291466"},"htmlText":"蜜雪冰城要多难喝有多难喝[生气]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"蜜雪冰城要多难喝有多难喝[生气]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"蜜雪冰城要多难喝有多难喝[生气]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464603143507992","repostId":2557349346,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":464899684237624,"gmtCreate":1754525712172,"gmtModify":1754525716934,"authorId":3472098980994884,"author":{"id":3472098980994884,"idStr":"3472098980994884","authorId":3472098980994884,"name":"拒绝游泳的鱼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52fff20daaba255185a5f3bd46574b0f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"93.51%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":464603143507992,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"我搞了杯免费的柠檬水，喝了二口就扔了，要是要钱谁会买。","text":"我搞了杯免费的柠檬水，喝了二口就扔了，要是要钱谁会买。","html":"我搞了杯免费的柠檬水，喝了二口就扔了，要是要钱谁会买。"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}