台积电业绩强劲难掩危机，正被“高估”与“追兵”双重包围_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

台积电业绩强劲难掩危机，正被“高估”与“追兵”双重包围

智通财经2025-07-28

7月28日，台积电已成长为全球最大的晶圆代工厂，估值超1万亿美元，而竞争对手三星和英特尔(INTC.US)则明显落后。尽管此前曾因预期竞争加剧建议暂缓投资，但实际竞争进展较预期缓慢，台积电凭借在人工智能浪潮中的关键地位，收入与利润实现大幅增长。不过，考虑到其估值已处高位且面临多重风险，当前仍非理想投资标的。营收增长但利润下降从最新财务表现看，台积电合并营收约新台币9,337.9亿元(约合人民币2,...

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青木璇
·2025-07-28
智通财经经常发布低水平分析小作文，连人名都不敢署
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\"pursuers\"","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1.1},"content_text":"7月28日，台积电已成长为全球最大的晶圆代工厂，估值超1万亿美元，而竞争对手三星和英特尔(INTC.US)则明显落后。尽管此前曾因预期竞争加剧建议暂缓投资，但实际竞争进展较预期缓慢，台积电凭借在人工智能浪潮中的关键地位，收入与利润实现大幅增长。不过，考虑到其估值已处高位且面临多重风险，当前仍非理想投资标的。营收增长但利润下降从最新财务表现看，台积电合并营收约新台币9,337.9亿元(约合人民币2,280.3亿元)，税后净利润约新台币3,982.7亿元(约合人民币972.6亿元)，每股盈余为新台币15.36元。客户需求大幅增长，台积电本季度营收同比增幅超40%。毛利率同步提升超5个百分点，显示其产品定价能力增强;晶圆出货量增长19%，推动净利润率接近43%。尽管新台币兑美元汇率走强对以新台币计价的盈利造成一定压力，但整体现金流仍保持稳健。不过环比数据透露出需求放缓迹象：毛利率与净利润率均现环比下降，表明持续涨价的难度增加。半导体细分部门业绩细分领域表现显示，台积电正通过尖端制程持续拓展业务。本季度24%的收入来自3纳米工艺，36%来自5纳米工艺;7纳米工艺虽占比有所下降，但实际收入保持平稳。依托现有晶圆厂产能，公司在维持其他制程收入稳定的同时，尖端技术收入持续增长。从业务结构看，高性能计算(HPC)仍是核心支柱，占比超60%且同比实现两位数增长，但这也隐含潜在风险，人工智能需求的真实性难以长期预测，若部分需求源于企业“跟风”而非实际应用，可能严重冲击台积电持续推动股东回报的能力。现金流状况现金流方面，公司本季度经营性现金流达5000亿新台币(约合160亿美元)，股息收益率仅1.2%，虽足以覆盖分红，但资本支出高达94亿美元。2025年预计资本支出将达400亿美元，按此测算年化自由现金流(FCF)约250亿美元，自由现金流收益率低于3%。尽管本季度现金余额仅小幅下降，财务状况无虞，但股东回报能力仍存隐忧。公司预计下季度营收将达325亿美元，环比增长良好，但毛利率预计下降约2个百分点，营业利润率下降3个百分点，除新台币走强影响外，更反映出利润增长动能减弱。同行挑战竞争层面，风险正逐步显现。英特尔正推进18A制程节点量产，目标年底前实现，并持续扩大产能，同时强调若无外部重大订单不会调整14A制程。考虑到企业普遍希望保留供应链选择权，英特尔获得相关合同的可能性较高。三星则加速2纳米工艺研发，计划年底前完成，并有望成为美国首家具备该工艺能力的厂商。由于美国是定制芯片的最大市场，而台湾的“硅盾”优势正面临美国保护主义政策及本土制造转向的挑战，一旦三星在美国建立2纳米产能，可能通过规模扩张对台积电利润率形成挤压。结论当前台积电面临的核心风险有两点：其一，估值已处高位，结合资本密集型业务的特性，自由现金流收益率降至个位数低位;其二，英特尔与三星正投入巨资追赶，计划年内实现关键制程突破，可能引发新一轮竞争并压缩利润空间。尽管台积电仍是全球最大晶圆代工厂，且在尖端芯片领域保持唯一供应地位，但上述风险需投资者重点关注。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":461531657146720,"gmtCreate":1753697337713,"gmtModify":1753697339727,"author":{"id":"3473386506319582","authorId":"3473386506319582","name":"青木璇","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e97e534204c3081ed2fd9a5e0c09dd05","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b6219675842600ebb42baa43c645832","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3473386506319582","idStr":"3473386506319582"},"htmlText":"智通财经经常发布低水平分析小作文，连人名都不敢署","listText":"智通财经经常发布低水平分析小作文，连人名都不敢署","text":"智通财经经常发布低水平分析小作文，连人名都不敢署","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/461531657146720","repostId":2554729808,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2554729808","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1753689330,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2554729808?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-28 15:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电业绩强劲难掩危机，正被“高估”与“追兵”双重包围","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2554729808","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，台积电已成长为全球最大的晶圆代工厂，估值超1万亿美元，而竞争对手三星和英特尔则明显落后。客户需求大幅增长，台积电本季度营收同比增幅超40%。半导体细分部门业绩细分领域表现显示，台积电正通过尖端制程持续拓展业务。考虑到企业普遍希望保留供应链选择权，英特尔获得相关合同的可能性较高。尽管台积电仍是全球最大晶圆代工厂，且在尖端芯片领域保持唯一供应地位，但上述风险需投资者重点关注。","content":"<p>7月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>已成长为全球最大的晶圆代工厂，估值超1万亿美元，而竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>(INTC.US)则明显落后。尽管此前曾因预期竞争加剧建议暂缓投资，但实际竞争进展较预期缓慢，台积电凭借在人工智能浪潮中的关键地位，收入与利润实现大幅增长。不过，考虑到其估值已处高位且面临多重风险，当前仍非<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想</a>投资标的。</p><p><strong>营收增长但利润下降</strong></p><p>从最新财务表现看，台积电合并营收约新台币9,337.9亿元(约合人民币2,280.3亿元)，税后净利润约新台币3,982.7亿元(约合人民币972.6亿元)，每股盈余为新台币15.36元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/509c66fea4f231afe1dafc14952db44b\" tg-width=\"1722\" tg-height=\"735\"></p><p>客户需求大幅增长，台积电本季度营收同比增幅超40%。毛利率同步提升超5个百分点，显示其产品定价能力增强;晶圆出货量增长19%，推动净利润率接近43%。尽管新台币兑美元汇率走强对以新台币计价的盈利造成一定压力，但整体现金流仍保持稳健。不过环比数据透露出需求放缓迹象：毛利率与净利润率均现环比下降，表明持续涨价的难度增加。</p><p><strong>半导体细分部门业绩</strong></p><p>细分领域表现显示，台积电正通过尖端制程持续拓展业务。本季度24%的收入来自3纳米工艺，36%来自5纳米工艺;7纳米工艺虽占比有所下降，但实际收入保持平稳。依托现有晶圆厂产能，公司在维持其他制程收入稳定的同时，尖端技术收入持续增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f08f931ce026edaa27bd6a6410b1e14\" tg-width=\"1777\" tg-height=\"699\"></p><p>从业务结构看，高性能计算(HPC)仍是核心支柱，占比超60%且同比实现两位数增长，但这也隐含潜在风险，人工智能需求的真实性难以长期预测，若部分需求源于企业“跟风”而非实际应用，可能严重冲击台积电持续推动股东回报的能力。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bbeac536c017743e75d8912687e5076\" tg-width=\"1756\" tg-height=\"675\"></p><p><strong>现金流状况</strong></p><p>现金流方面，公司本季度经营性现金流达5000亿新台币(约合160亿美元)，股息收益率仅1.2%，虽足以覆盖分红，但资本支出高达94亿美元。2025年预计资本支出将达400亿美元，按此测算年化自由现金流(FCF)约250亿美元，自由现金流收益率低于3%。</p><p>尽管本季度现金余额仅小幅下降，财务状况无虞，但股东回报能力仍存隐忧。公司预计下季度营收将达325亿美元，环比增长良好，但毛利率预计下降约2个百分点，营业利润率下降3个百分点，除新台币走强影响外，更反映出利润增长动能减弱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf3500c7cdaa95d9cdbcc856bbf4fe26\" tg-width=\"1615\" tg-height=\"727\"></p><p><strong>同行挑战</strong></p><p>竞争层面，风险正逐步显现。英特尔正推进18A制程节点量产，目标年底前实现，并持续扩大产能，同时强调若无外部重大订单不会调整14A制程。考虑到企业普遍希望保留供应链选择权，英特尔获得相关合同的可能性较高。三星则加速2纳米工艺研发，计划年底前完成，并有望成为美国首家具备该工艺能力的厂商。由于美国是定制芯片的最大市场，而台湾的“硅盾”优势正面临美国保护主义政策及本土制造转向的挑战，一旦三星在美国建立2纳米产能，可能通过规模扩张对台积电利润率形成挤压。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8e4cf8ffd1ee50d15d11a2e135695bd\" tg-width=\"1675\" tg-height=\"670\"></p><p><strong>结论</strong></p><p>当前台积电面临的核心风险有两点：其一，估值已处高位，结合资本密集型业务的特性，自由现金流收益率降至个位数低位;其二，英特尔与三星正投入巨资追赶，计划年内实现关键制程突破，可能引发新一轮竞争并压缩利润空间。</p><p>尽管台积电仍是全球最大晶圆代工厂，且在尖端芯片领域保持唯一供应地位，但上述风险需投资者重点关注。</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电业绩强劲难掩危机，正被“高估”与“追兵”双重包围</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电业绩强劲难掩危机，正被“高估”与“追兵”双重包围\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-28 15:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1322542.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月28日，台积电已成长为全球最大的晶圆代工厂，估值超1万亿美元，而竞争对手三星和英特尔(INTC.US)则明显落后。尽管此前曾因预期竞争加剧建议暂缓投资，但实际竞争进展较预期缓慢，台积电凭借在人工智能浪潮中的关键地位，收入与利润实现大幅增长。不过，考虑到其估值已处高位且面临多重风险，当前仍非理想投资标的。营收增长但利润下降从最新财务表现看，台积电合并营收约新台币9,337.9亿元(约合人民币2,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1322542.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab46ee73bd1bbc4ed7da6a69f14e5d5","relate_stocks":{"LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0289960550.SGD":"AB FCP I - GLOBAL EQUITY BLEND PORTFOLIO 'A' (SGD) ACC","BK4602":"量子计算概念","BK4591":"室温超导概念","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","LU2125154935.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"I\" (USD) INC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","LU1868838027.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","LU0175139822.USD":"AB FCP I Global Equity Blend A USD","LU0143863198.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen 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ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1322542.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2554729808","content_text":"7月28日，台积电已成长为全球最大的晶圆代工厂，估值超1万亿美元，而竞争对手三星和英特尔(INTC.US)则明显落后。尽管此前曾因预期竞争加剧建议暂缓投资，但实际竞争进展较预期缓慢，台积电凭借在人工智能浪潮中的关键地位，收入与利润实现大幅增长。不过，考虑到其估值已处高位且面临多重风险，当前仍非理想投资标的。营收增长但利润下降从最新财务表现看，台积电合并营收约新台币9,337.9亿元(约合人民币2,280.3亿元)，税后净利润约新台币3,982.7亿元(约合人民币972.6亿元)，每股盈余为新台币15.36元。客户需求大幅增长，台积电本季度营收同比增幅超40%。毛利率同步提升超5个百分点，显示其产品定价能力增强;晶圆出货量增长19%，推动净利润率接近43%。尽管新台币兑美元汇率走强对以新台币计价的盈利造成一定压力，但整体现金流仍保持稳健。不过环比数据透露出需求放缓迹象：毛利率与净利润率均现环比下降，表明持续涨价的难度增加。半导体细分部门业绩细分领域表现显示，台积电正通过尖端制程持续拓展业务。本季度24%的收入来自3纳米工艺，36%来自5纳米工艺;7纳米工艺虽占比有所下降，但实际收入保持平稳。依托现有晶圆厂产能，公司在维持其他制程收入稳定的同时，尖端技术收入持续增长。从业务结构看，高性能计算(HPC)仍是核心支柱，占比超60%且同比实现两位数增长，但这也隐含潜在风险，人工智能需求的真实性难以长期预测，若部分需求源于企业“跟风”而非实际应用，可能严重冲击台积电持续推动股东回报的能力。现金流状况现金流方面，公司本季度经营性现金流达5000亿新台币(约合160亿美元)，股息收益率仅1.2%，虽足以覆盖分红，但资本支出高达94亿美元。2025年预计资本支出将达400亿美元，按此测算年化自由现金流(FCF)约250亿美元，自由现金流收益率低于3%。尽管本季度现金余额仅小幅下降，财务状况无虞，但股东回报能力仍存隐忧。公司预计下季度营收将达325亿美元，环比增长良好，但毛利率预计下降约2个百分点，营业利润率下降3个百分点，除新台币走强影响外，更反映出利润增长动能减弱。同行挑战竞争层面，风险正逐步显现。英特尔正推进18A制程节点量产，目标年底前实现，并持续扩大产能，同时强调若无外部重大订单不会调整14A制程。考虑到企业普遍希望保留供应链选择权，英特尔获得相关合同的可能性较高。三星则加速2纳米工艺研发，计划年底前完成，并有望成为美国首家具备该工艺能力的厂商。由于美国是定制芯片的最大市场，而台湾的“硅盾”优势正面临美国保护主义政策及本土制造转向的挑战，一旦三星在美国建立2纳米产能，可能通过规模扩张对台积电利润率形成挤压。结论当前台积电面临的核心风险有两点：其一，估值已处高位，结合资本密集型业务的特性，自由现金流收益率降至个位数低位;其二，英特尔与三星正投入巨资追赶，计划年内实现关键制程突破，可能引发新一轮竞争并压缩利润空间。尽管台积电仍是全球最大晶圆代工厂，且在尖端芯片领域保持唯一供应地位，但上述风险需投资者重点关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1.1}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":4,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}