3个话题：台积电Q2“超预期”、ASML多空争论、浅聊光模块和PCB_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

3个话题：台积电Q2“超预期”、ASML多空争论、浅聊光模块和PCB

橙子不糊涂2025-07-17

3个话题，一个一个聊。1，台积电Q3指引轩超预期，但Q4低于市场预期…（1）我们先看TMTBreakout的信息：（2）最夸张的是：我们维持未来5年AI加速器40%+年复合增长率…还能有比这还乐观的预测么？（3）然后台积电画风一转：我们很保守，Q4可能下滑，因为考虑了很多风险…翻译一下：我们Q4跟可能超预期。（4）虽然只言片语，但台积电透露了很多信息。“主权AI”+“超大规模AI”，这里其实明确...

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ASML订单和毛利率强劲，但2026年充满不确定性（1）先看信息：（2）我偏向于多方，因为ASML这两年一惯就是先把事儿讲的很惨，然后持续超预期的预期管理模式。台积电已经稳住预期，就剩存储厂商了。至少明年HBM的预期完全可以支撑ASML不会那么糟糕。今天有投行提醒了HBM在2026年的竞争风险，那需要先扩张。目前考虑HBM的竞争风险太过于保守，中性的理解就是明年继续紧平衡。另外，别忽视了我们这里进口光刻机超预期的可能，其实光刻机进口这件事这两年一直在超预期…3，浅聊光模块+PCB聊4点：（1）今天胜宏科技发了定增进展公告，通过交易所审核意味着快了，这无疑是个好事情。这个和其他一些公司顶着亏损和100X PE激烈的博弈不同，大家可以自行推演一下；（2）新易盛今天异动了，龙虎榜比较有意思。昨天在星球里提到了：后面达链会继续演绎精彩。英伟达持续向上，对达链估值空间打开非常重要，难得的超级产业趋势。（3）关于正交背板PCB的机会大概是M9 CCL，很大可能上PTFE；第一批送样以及公司已经出炉，国内这几个都有很好的预期，正常1Q26定方案…这就是给PCB提升估值的催化因素。（4）扩产很难，PCB如果高端货提高价格，那么毛利率和净利润率弹性会比光模块更加夸张。但总归，达链都会不错，尤其是我们国内占优（一定要占优）的产业环节，别太幻想什么234供的环节业绩能爆发，以及非一级供应链的环节。英伟达再慷慨，也没什么利润给到2级供应商。（全文完）为了方便大家更细节、更实时讨论所有跟科技投资相关的话题，欢迎新老朋友进入私域知识星球（iOS用户如果扫码不便，可私信）；星球里会持续输出机器人/半导体/AI/自动驾驶/新消费等领域干货、专家纪要、财务模型等各种资料，我们也会讨论宏观以及A股、港股以及美股的市场情绪，TMTBreakout的信息也会每日准时在星球里更新。低价一年了，后续人数到达整数关口会开启涨价，还有不到100席，欢迎感兴趣的朋友加入！老铁，求赞，加星标，不错文章更新！","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}