AI刺激“后台管理系统”超级周期：先是SAP，现在是Oracle_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

AI刺激“后台管理系统”超级周期：先是SAP，现在是Oracle

华尔街见闻2025-06-14

摩根士丹利分析师认为，AI正成为ERP云迁移的核心催化剂。随着更多企业进行ERP云迁移，相关配套服务的需求也将水涨船高。因此，摩根士丹利重申了对BlackLine、OneStream和Vertex等公司的“增持”评级。甲骨文（Oracle）最新财报显示其云应用业务显著加速，摩根士丹利分析师认为，这一突破性表现预示着由AI驱动的后台办公系统升级超级周期正从SAP生态系统扩展至更广阔市场。据追风交易台...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3749055><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利分析师认为，AI正成为ERP云迁移的核心催化剂。随着更多企业进行ERP云迁移，相关配套服务的需求也将水涨船高。因此，摩根士丹利重申了对BlackLine、OneStream和Vertex等公司的“增持”评级。甲骨文（Oracle）最新财报显示其云应用业务显著加速，摩根士丹利分析师认为，这一突破性表现预示着由AI驱动的后台办公系统升级超级周期正从SAP生态系统扩展至更广阔市场。据追风交易台...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3749055\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0444973449.USD","symbol_name":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"DU\" (USD) 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SAP, now Oracle","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e81de29a982d9f7fc4e6328e03de75","symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1,"SAP":1},"content_text":"摩根士丹利分析师认为，AI正成为ERP云迁移的核心催化剂。随着更多企业进行ERP云迁移，相关配套服务的需求也将水涨船高。因此，摩根士丹利重申了对BlackLine、OneStream和Vertex等公司的“增持”评级。甲骨文（Oracle）最新财报显示其云应用业务显著加速，摩根士丹利分析师认为，这一突破性表现预示着由AI驱动的后台办公系统升级超级周期正从SAP生态系统扩展至更广阔市场。据追风交易台消息，6月12日摩根士丹利研报指出，AI正成为ERP云迁移的核心催化剂。调研显示，48%的受访者明确表示利用AI能力是升级ERP平台到云端的重要催化剂，仅次于“数字化转型”（82%）和“提高运营效率/成本节约”（61%），而甲骨文最新发布的2025财年第四季度财报是一个强有力的证明。此前华尔街见闻报道，甲骨文在2025财年第四季度交出了超预期答卷，特别是在SaaS云应用方面表现亮眼。其核心云应用（Fusion ERP和NetSuite）增长显著提速，管理层预计这一势头将在2026财年延续。这一加速增长的核心催化剂，正是企业为了利用AI能力而从本地部署软件向云端迁移。这一趋势不仅利好甲骨文自身，更重要的是，它为整个“CFO办公软件“生态系统带来了增量需求。随着更多企业进行ERP云迁移，相关配套服务的需求也将水涨船高。因此，摩根士丹利重申了对BlackLine、OneStream和Vertex等公司的“增持”评级，其中Vertex因其与甲骨文紧密的市场合作关系，被视为最明确的潜在受益者。甲骨文业绩强劲复苏，云应用增长显著加速甲骨文在2025财年第四季度表现超出预期，特别是在SaaS云应用方面表现突出。Fusion ERP同比增长从此前的18%加速至22%，增幅达4个百分点；NetSuite ERP同比增长从17%提升至18%，增长1个百分点。管理层预期云应用增长率在2026财年将进一步加速。甲骨文首席执行官Safra Catz在财报电话会议中表示：我们的战略SaaS产品正在快速发展。客户开始意识到，只有迁移到云端才能使用AI功能。许多客户仍在使用本地ERP产品，这些产品无法真正使用先进的智能代理和AI功能。如果想要使用这些功能进行自动化，做更多事情并降低支出，就必须迁移到Fusion或NetSuite。AI成为企业ERP升级的核心催化剂报告强调，此前市场关注的“后端办公超级周期”主要围绕SAP展开，因为SAP设定了2027年终止对本地部署产品支持的明确最后期限，从而积极推动了客户迁移。而甲骨文历史上并未采取如此激进的策略。然而，甲骨文最新的业绩表明，ERP上云的浪潮正在超越单一的SAP生态系统，扩展到更广阔的市场。这标志着整个行业的一个重要“拐点”。企业对“ERP升级”的关注度也在持续提升，公司财报电话会议中提及“ERP Update”的次数持续增加，进一步印证了这一趋势的普遍性。摩根士丹利强调，这一定程度上为“CFO办公室”领域的专业服务公司带来增量需求，因为这些服务（如财务结算自动化、税务合规等）通常与ERP云迁移项目深度绑定。这增强了摩根士丹利分析师对BlackLine、OneStream和Vertex增持评级的信心：Vertex：与甲骨文有着紧密的市场推广关系。企业在升级至甲骨文云ERP时，很可能会同时选择Vertex的税务解决方案。Vertex目标价基于30倍2029财年自由现金流倍数(增长调整后0.7倍)，按12.4%加权平均资本成本贴现。BlackLine：维持“增持”评级，其估值逻辑基于2029年预期自由现金流（FCF）的18倍市销率（EV/FCF），并采用12.5%的加权平均资本成本（WACC）进行折现。OneStream：同样给予“增持”评级，并设定了27美元的目标价。该目标价基于2026年预期销售额的9倍市销率（EV/Sales），或增长调整后的0.5倍，与同业公司水平一致。正如分析师强调的，AI正在重塑企业软件市场格局。甲骨文的强势复苏不仅是其自身的胜利，更开启了“后台管理系统”新一轮的增长周期。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}