金银40年联动规律被打破，黄金料继续碾压白银！_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

金银40年联动规律被打破，黄金料继续碾压白银！

金十数据2025-05-06

过去金银价格比通常在45-80之间波动，但自2022年起这个比率就突破了历史区间。高盛贵金属研究团队认为，由于央行购金需求结构性地推高了金价，白银不太可能追上黄金这波涨势。央行打破40年关联性历史上金银价格高度联动，主要因为它们的投资流向（ETF需求和COMEX净管理资金头寸）往往同步变动。白银具有双重属性，既像黄金又像工业金属。2022年实际利率上升对金银投资流向的压制程度相当，...

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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=174814&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>过去金银价格比通常在45-80之间波动，但自2022年起这个比率就突破了历史区间。高盛贵金属研究团队认为，由于央行购金需求结构性地推高了金价，白银不太可能追上黄金这波涨势。\n\n\n\n央行打破40年关联性\n\n历史上金银价格高度联动，主要因为它们的投资流向（ETF需求和COMEX净管理资金头寸）往往同步变动。\n白银具有双重属性，既像黄金又像工业金属。2022年实际利率上升对金银投资流向的压制程度相当，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=174814&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE0002270589.USD","symbol_name":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) 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\n白银难迎结构性补涨\n央行购银不太可能成为补涨行情的可靠驱动力，原因有三：\n\n物理特性：黄金更适合储备管理。其稀缺度是白银的10倍，单位价值是100倍，密度是2倍，更便于储存运输。价值10亿美元的黄金一个行李箱就能装下，同等价值的白银需要装满一整辆货运卡车。黄金化学性质稳定，白银则会氧化变质。\n制度地位：白银未被纳入IMF储备框架，在现代央行资产组合中无足轻重。其工业属性使其具有顺周期性，不适合作为对冲工具，且波动更大、流动性更差。\n替代效应有限：央行管理的是价值而非重量。黄金储备是被动持有，若金价结构性上涨，只需减少持有量即可维持美元配置规模。\n\n虽然白银有工业需求支撑（如光伏热潮），但始终未能缩小与黄金的差距。随着光伏产能过剩、美国衰退风险高企，加上2025年央行购金需求持续强劲，黄金表现料将继续优于白银。不过若黄金投资需求回暖（如2025年一季度行情），高度联动的白银也可能跟涨。\n也就是说，尽管白银的走势不太可能与黄金持平，但它可能会受益于投资者重新燃起的兴趣。鉴于流动性的高度相关性，2025年对黄金的需求可能也会提振白银。这在2025年第一季度的反弹中已经很明显，当时ETF资金流入和投机性买盘支撑了黄金和白银。\n高盛黄金展望\n最后，高盛重申了其结构性看涨黄金的观点，基准预期是年底前金价将达到3700美元/盎司，到2026年中期将达到4000美元/盎司。若美国政策引发衰退，ETF加速流入或推动年底金价至3880美元。极端情况下（如美联储政策受质疑或美国储备政策生变），2025年底或见4500美元。\n高盛认为，现在是长期投资黄金的一个有吸引力的切入点。现在的投机性仓位较少，有很大的重建空间。近期的一个风险是乌克兰和俄罗斯可能达成协议，这将导致算法抛售令金价短暂下跌3%。\n但杠杆率较低的长期投资者可以消化这种短期波动风险，因为仓位可能会在持续的宏观不确定性下迅速重建。高盛建议长期投资者逢低加仓，但杠杆投资者需警惕波动风险。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}