发电行业深度研究：量化“十五五”电价与盈利弹性坚守优质资产穿越价格周期_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

发电行业深度研究：量化“十五五”电价与盈利弹性坚守优质资产穿越价格周期

华泰证券股份有...2025-03-11

电价风险可控，建议长期布局优质资产穿越周期电价是电力板块最重要的影响因素，我们通过对2025-30 年的长周期测算，认为2026 与“十五五”电价下降风险可控，火电在“十五五”供需底部ROE或可维持6%-9%。煤价700 元/吨时火电周期低点的电价，对应水电核电DCF 价值相对目前市值还有可观空间。冷热电直供的开拓或成为核电与火电重要的开源手段，AIDC 或带动供电与供热的需求超预期，甚至带动整个...

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年的长周期测算，认为2026 与“十五五”电价下降风险可控，火电在“十五五”供需底部ROE或可维持6%-9%。煤价700 元/吨时火电周期低点的电价，对应水电核电DCF 价值相对目前市值还有可观空间。冷热电直供的开拓或成为核电与火电重要的开源手段，AIDC 或带动供电与供热的需求超预期，甚至带动整个...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025031110360698a34273&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"600900","symbol_name":"长江电力","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025031110360698a34273&s=b","article_id":"2518747423","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2025031110360698a34273&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, 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与“十五五”电价下降风险可控，火电在“十五五”供需底部ROE或可维持6%-9%。煤价700 元/吨时火电周期低点的电价，对应水电核电DCF 价值相对目前市值还有可观空间。冷热电直供的开拓或成为核电与火电重要的开源手段，AIDC 或带动供电与供热的需求超预期，甚至带动整个能源领域迎来模式的突破。短期推荐煤价弹性较大的华能AH、浙能、申能、华润，建议长期布局中核、蒙电、淮河、国电、陕能、新集等。毕竟，煤价与电价都有自身的波动，而优质资产可以穿越周期。电价：“十五五”风险可控，供热或是重要开源手段回溯历史，煤价对电价的解释力度远超供需。按照华泰煤炭组的观点煤价2026 年可以恢复到800 元/吨，我们测算明年电价下降空间不大。在“十五五”利用小时的低点，假设现货煤价700 元/吨，我们判断全国电价比2025年可能还有3-4 分/度的降幅。假设光伏加装6 小时储能，几乎没有省份的项目可以在我们预测的供需低点的电价盈利（侧面佐证我们预测的电价低点很难长期持续）。碳市场的推进可能会推升电价，德国火电在不到2000 利用小时的情况下都可以通过电价传导碳排放成本。此外，我们测算供热可以给火电和核电增厚6.9/2.0pct 的全投资IRR，或成为电力公司重要的开源手段。火电：供需低点ROE 或可维持6%-9%根据我们测算，煤电的利用小时会在2028 年前后见底，并且底部4300 左右。参照德国能源转型过程与我国“十三五”电力宽松时期的经验，在供需压力最大的年份，年度长协对应的点火价差或可维持0.08-0.1 元/度。2024年广东与江苏两省统调煤电利用小时均已下降至不足4300，但2025 年来两省高频月度电价对应的点火价差都已经恢复到0.08 元/度。在容量电价加持下，火电ROE 或可维持6%-9%。此外，火电受益其调节能力，在中长期分时、现货交易和辅助服务等方面，或还可以获取额外1-2 分/度的结算电价；这在新能源渗透率较高的省份，已经开始逐步体现。核电水电：最悲观电价预测下，当前市值或仍有绝对收益潜力根据我们测算，在6%的折现率假设下，在最悲观的供需环境下电价（煤价700 元/吨）也可以支撑长江电力、华能水电和国投电力有5%-79%的市值空间。在同样的电价低点，中国核电全部已获核准的项目可以支撑2232 亿市值（7%折现率）；假设核电全部电量入市，也可以支撑1981 亿，高于公司当前市值。对于四代高温气冷堆（假设造价49 元/W），在我们假设的最悲观的电价、热价下，资本金IRR 仍达8.2%。短期看煤价弹性，长期关注优质资产，AIDC 可能会带动需求超预期电力供需由2022 年的紧张转向宽松是影响电力行业基本面和估值最重要的因素，我们对火电周期底部不悲观，短期考虑煤价下行的弹性，我们推荐浙能、华润、华际AH、申能、建投、中国电力。长期来看，我们看好优质资产穿越周期的能力，推荐淮河能源、陕西能源、国电电力、长江电力、华能水电、国投电力、中国核电等。根据我们测算，AIDC 的用电量或可从2H25开始体现，每年可有1000 亿度增量，带动用电量增长1pct；假设其制冷需求中20%由余热满足，可以给蒸汽市场带来32%的增量——可能给我们的供需预测与盈利预测带来超预期的惊喜。风险提示：实际交易过程中的“行为金融学”影响，各地交易规则变化，煤价超预期波动，电力供需超预期恶化。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}