中国AI：起点，验证点，加速点_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

中国AI：起点，验证点，加速点

华尔街见闻02-22

核心观点 25年2月20日，阿里巴巴公布FY2025Q3季度业绩，本季度资本开支318亿元，同比+259%，环比+82%；FY2025前三季度合计资本开支614亿元，同比+193%，强劲的资本开支成为中国AI步入新阶段的有力印证。中国AI已经告别对标美股的“映射”行情，全AI产业链有望迎来价值重估。我们认为，大厂CapEx、AI应用商业化、模型能力迭代等三大因素，有望驱动中国AI产业持续加速，看好...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741653><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点\n25年2月20日，阿里巴巴公布FY2025Q3季度业绩，本季度资本开支318亿元，同比+259%，环比+82%；FY2025前三季度合计资本开支614亿元，同比+193%，强劲的资本开支成为中国AI步入新阶段的有力印证。中国AI已经告别对标美股的“映射”行情，全AI产业链有望迎来价值重估。我们认为，大厂CapEx、AI应用商业化、模型能力迭代等三大因素，有望驱动中国AI产业持续加速，看好...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741653\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4526","symbol_name":"热门中概股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741653","article_id":"2513240641","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/60eba868-b3bb-4097-aaa9-c7b94ed65815.png"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3741653","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2513240641","pubTimestamp":1740191068,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"华泰证券认为，中国AI已经告别对标美股的“映射”行情，全AI产业链有望迎来价值重估。大厂CapEx、AI应用商业化、模型能力迭代等三大因素，有望驱动中国AI产业持续加速，看好2025年中国AI资产的价值重估与业绩兑现。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK4526":"热门中概股","IE00BFMHRM44.USD":"NEUBERGER 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point","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.6,"BABA":0.77},"content_text":"核心观点\n25年2月20日，阿里巴巴公布FY2025Q3季度业绩，本季度资本开支318亿元，同比+259%，环比+82%；FY2025前三季度合计资本开支614亿元，同比+193%，强劲的资本开支成为中国AI步入新阶段的有力印证。中国AI已经告别对标美股的“映射”行情，全AI产业链有望迎来价值重估。我们认为，大厂CapEx、AI应用商业化、模型能力迭代等三大因素，有望驱动中国AI产业持续加速，看好2025年中国AI资产的价值重估与业绩兑现。\n起点：DeepSeek以模型平权重塑中国AI产业价值体系\n2022年底ChatGPT横空出世，带动全球科技产业进入大模型时代。2023-2024年，全球AI产业以美国科技企业为主导，中国AI在算力、模型、应用三大环节均未能显示出独有优势。2025年初，国产大模型DeepSeek实现模型侧突围，以开源/可商用/低成本的优势，快速推进中国AI产业价值重构。1）算力：科技企业的资本开支有望进入新投资周期；2）模型：模型能力迭代有望迎来更高频率；3）应用：AI应用产品化与商业化有望加速落地。我们认为，DeepSeek的模型平权不仅是模型侧的单点变化，更是整个AI产业变革的起点，有望以模型变化为支点，撬动中国AI更大的产业价值释放。\n验证点：阿里CapEx大幅扩大，AI提速得到有力验证\n阿里FY25Q3云业务收入317亿元，同比+13%，提速显著（FY25Q1、Q2云收入同比增速为6%、7%），主要受益于AI需求增长，推理需求占新增需求的60%-70%。FY25Q3季度CapEx约318亿元，同比+259%，环比+82%；FY25前三季度合计CapEx约614亿元，同比+193%，资本开支大幅扩大，验证中国AI进入全新上行周期。根据阿里电话会表述，未来三年阿里CapEx投入或将超越过去十年总和（CY2015-CY2024公司非房地产类CapEx合计超3,200亿元）。我们认为，后续字节、腾讯、小米等科技企业CapEx均有望同步扩大，模型平权后模型托管与应用推理需求将加速释放。\n加速点：关注大厂CapEx、AI应用商业化、模型能力迭代三大催化\n1）大厂CapEx：美国科技大厂CapEx投入是AI行业进程的重要风向标，按照对内/对外、训练/推理划分，大厂算力需求可分为四大场景，充分体现了AI产业的成熟度，目前国内阿里已率先开启新一轮CapEx投入周期，建议关注其他大厂后续的CapEx情况；2）AI应用商业化：AI应用是大模型商业闭环的最后环节，能否实现AI应用的规模化落地至关重要，建议关注2B、2C两大场景的应用进展；3）模型迭代：DeepSeek驱动下全球大模型加速迭代，模型能力上限突破、多模态模型能力升级仍是产业关注重点。\nAI产业链公司梳理\n硬件环节：1）GPU；2）服务器；3）电源；4）散热；5）PCB；6）光模块；7）IDC，具体公司名单请见研报原文。\n软件环节：1）2B应用；2）2C应用；3）数据中台，具体公司名单请见研报原文。\n\n\n\n\n本文作者：谢春生S0570519080006、岳铂雄S0570524080004、林海亮S0570524070001，来源：华泰睿思，原文标题：《中国AI：起点，验证点，加速点》风险提示及免责条款\n\n 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