黑天鹅作者：英伟达周一暴跌只是开始，未来回调幅度可能是两、三倍_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

黑天鹅作者：英伟达周一暴跌只是开始，未来回调幅度可能是两、三倍

华尔街见闻2025-01-29

《黑天鹅》一书的作者Nassim Taleb在最新接受彭博社对话时警告称，投资者盲目追逐华尔街AI热潮面临风险，周一英伟达遭遇的17%惨痛抛售，只是一个开始，未来的回调幅度可能是17%跌幅的两倍甚至三倍：这只是开始，是人们开始适应现实。因为他们现在意识到，已经不再是完美无缺的了——玻璃杯上有了小缺口。到目前为止，投资者都过于关注一种叙事：英伟达保持在AI领域的主导地位，该公司的股价将持续上涨...

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3740173><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>《黑天鹅》一书的作者Nassim Taleb在最新接受彭博社对话时警告称，投资者盲目追逐华尔街AI热潮面临风险，周一英伟达遭遇的17%惨痛抛售，只是一个开始，未来的回调幅度可能是17%跌幅的两倍甚至三倍：\n\n这只是开始，是人们开始适应现实。因为他们现在意识到，已经不再是完美无缺的了——玻璃杯上有了小缺口。\n到目前为止，投资者都过于关注一种叙事：英伟达保持在AI领域的主导地位，该公司的股价将持续上涨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3740173\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00B19Z8X17.USD","symbol_name":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) 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large","themeId":"e15fdb33caf4f14bb5c5b2ae5ad50592","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"《黑天鹅》一书的作者Nassim Taleb在最新接受彭博社对话时警告称，投资者盲目追逐华尔街AI热潮面临风险，周一英伟达遭遇的17%惨痛抛售，只是一个开始，未来的回调幅度可能是17%跌幅的两倍甚至三倍：\n\n这只是开始，是人们开始适应现实。因为他们现在意识到，已经不再是完美无缺的了——玻璃杯上有了小缺口。\n到目前为止，投资者都过于关注一种叙事：英伟达保持在AI领域的主导地位，该公司的股价将持续上涨。然而考虑到行业风险，周一英伟达的下跌幅度实际上非常小。\n\n英伟达周一的暴跌令其市值抹去了5890亿美元，为美股有史以来最大。周二，英伟达盘中大幅反弹。\nTaleb因畅销书《黑天鹅》闻名，这本书探讨了罕见和难以预测事件的极端影响。他目前担任Universa Investments的科学顾问，这是一家专注于尾部风险对冲的基金，提供类似保险的策略，帮助投资者保护投资组合免受剧烈市场波动的冲击。\nTaleb以前是期权交易员，在业内以悲观的预言而著称，但他的预言并非次次应验。例如2023年初，他曾警告许多投资者尚未为高利率时代做好准备，资产可能不再像疯了一样地膨胀。但自那以来，受AI投资狂热的推动，美股大幅飙升。\n不过，Taleb和Universa Investments并非主张投资者完全撤离市场，从而错过潜在的涨势，而是建议在投资组合中配置一部分资产用于防范突发冲击。\nTaleb表示，太多投资者盲目推高与AI相关公司的股价，而他们实际上并不了解这项技术的运作方式或如何成功。他形容科技公司为“灰天鹅”，因为市场往往低估了这些股票可能出现的巨大日内波动。\nTaleb还再次强调他对美国债务不可持续的担忧。他警告称，如果劳动力成本上升与激进的关税政策结合，可能会引发“通胀爆发”，并认为考虑到这种风险，债券市场并不是明智的投资标的。风险提示及免责条款\n\n            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