大摩敲警钟！领跑AI应用的Palantir涨不动了？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

大摩敲警钟！领跑AI应用的Palantir涨不动了？

华尔街见闻01-08

大摩质疑Palantir增长势头持续性，其认为当前阶段Palantir的技术优势已达到或接近顶峰，增长前景吸也已充分反映在股价中，拥有比同行业高出100%的溢价，基于此给出“低配”评级，目标价60美元/股。隔夜，Palantir股价跌近8%。AI数据分析商Palantir去年大涨340%，成为美股市场上的大赢家。而大摩敲响警钟，下调Palantir评级至“低配”，警示估值溢价与风险收益失衡。...

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大胖狗
·01-08
这公司不就是我们国内所说的外包公司性质吗，无非是技术能力更强。
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- MArvin_Yet:
  技术能力是很强，而且在现在大体环境中能有长期政府订单支持的还真不多。
  01-08
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Palantir, which leads AI applications, can't rise?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03dbe18d49c563ac73e045ef6c1ead24","symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":1},"content_text":"大摩质疑Palantir增长势头持续性，其认为当前阶段Palantir的技术优势已达到或接近顶峰，增长前景吸也已充分反映在股价中，拥有比同行业高出100%的溢价，基于此给出“低配”评级，目标价60美元/股。隔夜，Palantir股价跌近8%。AI数据分析商Palantir去年大涨340%，成为美股市场上的大赢家。而大摩敲响警钟，下调Palantir评级至“低配”，警示估值溢价与风险收益失衡。摩根士丹利在1月6日的报告中对Palantir进行分析，从产品周期、政府与商业业务表现、运营效率和估值等方面进行全面剖析，并给出“低配”评级，目标价60美元/股。而2026财年的企业价值/销售额为32倍，增长调整后为12倍，比同行业高出100%的溢价。大摩表示，Palantir确实在过去18个月中实现了超预期的表现，基于AI平台（AIP）产品及“Bootcamp”市场策略，政府业务年增长从2023年的11%提升至2024年的27%，大型政府合同快速增长，运营费用增速放缓推动了900个基点的利润率扩张。但大摩质疑这一增长势头的持续性，其认为当前阶段Palantir的技术优势已达到或接近顶峰，增长前景吸也已充分反映在股价中，且第三季度有13个关键绩效指标（KPIs）环比下降。强劲增长势头的持续性存疑大摩分析指出，随着企业客户自身AI能力的提升，Palantir的技术优势可能逐渐被削弱，从而影响其目前的增长动能和估值溢价的可持续性。1、当前阶段Palantir吸纳客户已达到或接近顶峰：Palantir在数据集成、工作流编排、业务本体映射等领域具备领先技术，并通过部署工程师模式帮助客户快速实现AI生产化。Palantir之所以成为如此有吸引力的合作伙伴，部分原因在于它在技术和人力资本方面相对于最终客户的能力的相对差距/技能集，在我们看来，这在当前周期阶段已经达到或接近顶峰，可能会使Palantir难以维持当前的发展势头。2、增长前景吸引人，但在股价中已得到充分反映：增长的拐点和我们对Palantir在生成式人工智能周期中定位的积极修正在股价中得到了很好的反映，2024年股价上涨了340%，几乎完全是由倍数扩张驱动的，Palantir的56倍企业价值/未来12个月销售额倍数在2024年扩大了292%。由于缺乏重大估计修正的可见性，Palantir的交易价格远远领先于公司的内在价值，这不足以证明评级升级的合理性。3、23个关键绩效指标（KPIs）中有13个季度环比下降：业务势头现在似乎正在稳定，而不是进一步提高，第三季度有13个关键绩效指标（KPIs）环比下降，而在前一季度看到了最佳的增长率改善。综合来看，大摩预计，收入/自由现金流估计和3.4倍的企业价值/2026财年自由现金流/增长倍数（88倍企业价值/2026财年自由现金流）——比高增长软件同行高出约80%的溢价，这是同行业中第二昂贵的股票。这推动了目标价格$60，意味着2026财年的企业价值/销售额为32倍，增长调整后为12倍，比同行业高出100%的溢价，但与当前交易价格相比仍有25%的下跌空间。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":390194692477144,"gmtCreate":1736296839672,"gmtModify":1736296841509,"author":{"id":"3456522815825326","authorId":"3456522815825326","name":"大胖狗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/623af4e6d425b164d8540dd5bf267908","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3456522815825326","idStr":"3456522815825326"},"htmlText":"这公司不就是我们国内所说的外包公司性质吗，无非是技术能力更强。","listText":"这公司不就是我们国内所说的外包公司性质吗，无非是技术能力更强。","text":"这公司不就是我们国内所说的外包公司性质吗，无非是技术能力更强。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390194692477144","repostId":2501220304,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2501220304","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1736294140,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2501220304?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-01-08 07:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"大摩敲警钟！领跑AI应用的Palantir涨不动了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2501220304","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩质疑Palantir增长势头持续性，其认为当前阶段Palantir的技术优势已达到或接近顶峰，增长前景吸也已充分反映在股价中，拥有比同行业高出100%的溢价，基于此给出“低配”评级，目标价60美元/股，较当前股价有约25%下行空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>大摩质疑Palantir增长势头持续性，其认为当前阶段Palantir的技术优势已达到或接近顶峰，增长前景吸也已充分反映在股价中，拥有比同行业高出100%的溢价，基于此给出“低配”评级，目标价60美元/股。隔夜，Palantir股价跌近8%。</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2800e4ca7239639fff611ae1d8f1e1e6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>AI数据分析商Palantir去年大涨340%，成为美股市场上的大赢家。而大摩敲响警钟，下调Palantir评级至“低配”，警示估值溢价与风险收益失衡。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>在1月6日的报告中对Palantir进行分析，从产品周期、政府与商业业务表现、运营效率和估值等方面进行全面剖析，并给出“低配”评级，目标价60美元/股。而2026财年的企业价值/销售额为32倍，增长调整后为12倍，比同行业高出100%的溢价。</p><p>大摩表示，Palantir确实在过去18个月中实现了超预期的表现，基于AI平台（AIP）产品及“Bootcamp”市场策略，政府业务年增长从2023年的11%提升至2024年的27%，大型政府合同快速增长，运营费用增速放缓推动了900个基点的利润率扩张。</p><p><strong>但大摩质疑这一增长势头的持续性，其认为当前阶段Palantir的技术优势已达到或接近顶峰，增长前景吸也已充分反映在股价中，且第三季度有13个关键绩效指标（KPIs）环比下降。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2558881427\">强劲增长势头的持续性存疑</h2><p>大摩分析指出，随着企业客户自身AI能力的提升，Palantir的技术优势可能逐渐被削弱，从而影响其目前的增长动能和估值溢价的可持续性。</p><blockquote><p><strong>1、当前阶段Palantir吸纳客户已达到或接近顶峰：</strong>Palantir在数据集成、工作流编排、业务本体映射等领域具备领先技术，并通过部署工程师模式帮助客户快速实现AI生产化。Palantir之所以成为如此有吸引力的合作伙伴，部分原因在于它在技术和人力资本方面相对于最终客户的能力的相对差距/技能集，在我们看来，这在当前周期阶段已经达到或接近顶峰，可能会使Palantir难以维持当前的发展势头。</p><p><strong>2、增长前景吸引人，但在股价中已得到充分反映：</strong>增长的拐点和我们对Palantir在生成式人工智能周期中定位的积极修正在股价中得到了很好的反映，2024年股价上涨了340%，几乎完全是由倍数扩张驱动的，Palantir的56倍企业价值/未来12个月销售额倍数在2024年扩大了292%。由于缺乏重大估计修正的可见性，Palantir的交易价格远远领先于公司的内在价值，这不足以证明评级升级的合理性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111efc9db096274b6d90c64f100f4aeb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"557\" tg-height=\"367\"/></p><p><strong>3、23个关键绩效指标（KPIs）中有13个季度环比下降：</strong>业务势头现在似乎正在稳定，而不是进一步提高，第三季度有13个关键绩效指标（KPIs）环比下降，而在前一季度看到了最佳的增长率改善。</p></blockquote><p>综合来看，大摩预计，收入/自由现金流估计和3.4倍的企业价值/2026财年自由现金流/增长倍数（88倍企业价值/2026财年自由现金流）——比高增长软件同行高出约80%的溢价，这是同行业中第二昂贵的股票。这推动了目标价格$60，意味着2026财年的企业价值/销售额为32倍，增长调整后为12倍，比同行业高出100%的溢价，但与当前交易价格相比仍有25%的下跌空间。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩敲警钟！领跑AI应用的Palantir涨不动了？</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3738545\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8770727e796e366d2aea608abcfc4207","relate_stocks":{"LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","LU0158827948.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2028103732.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","BK4023":"应用软件","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment 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USD-H"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3738545","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2501220304","content_text":"大摩质疑Palantir增长势头持续性，其认为当前阶段Palantir的技术优势已达到或接近顶峰，增长前景吸也已充分反映在股价中，拥有比同行业高出100%的溢价，基于此给出“低配”评级，目标价60美元/股。隔夜，Palantir股价跌近8%。AI数据分析商Palantir去年大涨340%，成为美股市场上的大赢家。而大摩敲响警钟，下调Palantir评级至“低配”，警示估值溢价与风险收益失衡。摩根士丹利在1月6日的报告中对Palantir进行分析，从产品周期、政府与商业业务表现、运营效率和估值等方面进行全面剖析，并给出“低配”评级，目标价60美元/股。而2026财年的企业价值/销售额为32倍，增长调整后为12倍，比同行业高出100%的溢价。大摩表示，Palantir确实在过去18个月中实现了超预期的表现，基于AI平台（AIP）产品及“Bootcamp”市场策略，政府业务年增长从2023年的11%提升至2024年的27%，大型政府合同快速增长，运营费用增速放缓推动了900个基点的利润率扩张。但大摩质疑这一增长势头的持续性，其认为当前阶段Palantir的技术优势已达到或接近顶峰，增长前景吸也已充分反映在股价中，且第三季度有13个关键绩效指标（KPIs）环比下降。强劲增长势头的持续性存疑大摩分析指出，随着企业客户自身AI能力的提升，Palantir的技术优势可能逐渐被削弱，从而影响其目前的增长动能和估值溢价的可持续性。1、当前阶段Palantir吸纳客户已达到或接近顶峰：Palantir在数据集成、工作流编排、业务本体映射等领域具备领先技术，并通过部署工程师模式帮助客户快速实现AI生产化。Palantir之所以成为如此有吸引力的合作伙伴，部分原因在于它在技术和人力资本方面相对于最终客户的能力的相对差距/技能集，在我们看来，这在当前周期阶段已经达到或接近顶峰，可能会使Palantir难以维持当前的发展势头。2、增长前景吸引人，但在股价中已得到充分反映：增长的拐点和我们对Palantir在生成式人工智能周期中定位的积极修正在股价中得到了很好的反映，2024年股价上涨了340%，几乎完全是由倍数扩张驱动的，Palantir的56倍企业价值/未来12个月销售额倍数在2024年扩大了292%。由于缺乏重大估计修正的可见性，Palantir的交易价格远远领先于公司的内在价值，这不足以证明评级升级的合理性。3、23个关键绩效指标（KPIs）中有13个季度环比下降：业务势头现在似乎正在稳定，而不是进一步提高，第三季度有13个关键绩效指标（KPIs）环比下降，而在前一季度看到了最佳的增长率改善。综合来看，大摩预计，收入/自由现金流估计和3.4倍的企业价值/2026财年自由现金流/增长倍数（88倍企业价值/2026财年自由现金流）——比高增长软件同行高出约80%的溢价，这是同行业中第二昂贵的股票。这推动了目标价格$60，意味着2026财年的企业价值/销售额为32倍，增长调整后为12倍，比同行业高出100%的溢价，但与当前交易价格相比仍有25%的下跌空间。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":1}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":390171821953520,"gmtCreate":1736302517037,"gmtModify":1736303524667,"authorId":3574034137700202,"author":{"id":3574034137700202,"idStr":"3574034137700202","authorId":3574034137700202,"name":"MArvin_Yet","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62fb9f1ed3c6aa0d1032b3022af8aa7e","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":390194692477144,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"技术能力是很强，而且在现在大体环境中能有长期政府订单支持的还真不多。","text":"技术能力是很强，而且在现在大体环境中能有长期政府订单支持的还真不多。","html":"技术能力是很强，而且在现在大体环境中能有长期政府订单支持的还真不多。"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}