谷歌-A：云业务收入和利润率大幅提升广告业务高基数下稳健增长_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

谷歌-A：云业务收入和利润率大幅提升广告业务高基数下稳健增长

国信证券2024-10-31

业绩总览：广告业务持续加速增长，云增速恢复，利润率显著提升。①整体：FY24Q3 公司营收882.68 亿美元（同比+15%，CC+16%），GAAP 毛利率58.7%，营业利润285 亿美元（营业利润率32.3%）。②分业务：谷歌服务收入765 亿美元（同比+10.4%），其中包括谷歌广告收入658.54亿美元（同比+9.42%）和其他非广告业务收入106.56 亿美元（同比+27.8%）。广告...

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驱动下显著提升了用户搜索意愿、场景和搜索次数。②云业务收入连续七个季度加速增长，规模效应利润率提升显著：谷歌云收入同比增速+35%，AI 产品组合吸引了新客户和更大规模交易。OPM 为17%（环比+5.8pct），规模效应和业务效率提升推动了利润率增长。③资本开支预计四季度持平，算力建设同时采用GPU 与自身TPU：三季度资本开支环比持平，财报会预计四季度投资与Q3 持平，预计全年约510 亿美金，同时指引2025 年的资本支出将高于2024 年。技术基础设施中同时投资GPU 与自身TPU 服务器，预计对自身TPU 的使用将有效降低算力成本、提升云业务等相关利润率。业绩展望：公司对广告业务在AI 赋能下的稳健增长保持乐观预期。同时公司将持续AI 基础设施投入，提升搜索体验、助力广告素材生成工具。投资建议：考虑云利润释放加速，我们小幅上调2024-2026 财年公司收入预测为3520/4049/4551 亿美元(前值为3508/3958/4387 亿美元)，上调幅度1%/2%/2%。考虑到AI 赋能下广告和云业务增长稳健，上调2024-2025 财年净利润预测为968/1118/1283 亿美元（955/1106/1268 美元），上调幅度1%/1%/1%。维持目标价200-220 美元，中值对应2024 财年PE 27x，维持“优于大市”评级。风险提示：宏观压力与IT 支出放缓；云与AI 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