英伟达创新高是标志！美联储9月降息以来，美股逻辑又变了_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

英伟达创新高是标志！美联储9月降息以来，美股逻辑又变了

华尔街见闻2024-10-15

美联储降息以及对经济软着陆的乐观预期重燃风险偏好，经历过动荡之夏的美国科技股自9月以来开启了一波反弹，隔夜英伟达创下了新高。但科技股能否重回主导地位，美股轮动还能否继续，这个财报季非常关键。周一，英伟达上涨2.4%，收于138.07美元，越过了7月份触及的历史高点，市值达到3.39万亿美元，逼近“全球股王”苹果3.5万亿美元的市值。过去一个月以来，英伟达累计反弹18%。英伟达重返高点标志着美股叙事...

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Since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, the logic of U.S. stocks has changed again","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dff6d89954371be56d4b73e6fecbe5ad","symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1,"OEX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPY":1,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"L":0.6},"content_text":"美联储降息以及对经济软着陆的乐观预期重燃风险偏好，经历过动荡之夏的美国科技股自9月以来开启了一波反弹，隔夜英伟达创下了新高。但科技股能否重回主导地位，美股轮动还能否继续，这个财报季非常关键。周一，英伟达上涨2.4%，收于138.07美元，越过了7月份触及的历史高点，市值达到3.39万亿美元，逼近“全球股王”苹果3.5万亿美元的市值。过去一个月以来，英伟达累计反弹18%。英伟达重返高点标志着美股叙事逻辑的转变。今年夏天，AI财报失利、套息交易逆转以及非农爆冷提升降息预期等事件导致科技股大调整。美股出现风格轮动，长期以来主导美股走势的科技股遭到抛售，同时金融、工业、防御性板块以及小盘股等之前不受青睐的板块开始上涨。但自从美联储9月降息以来，科技股“重整旗鼓”。数据显示，IT和通信服务是第三季度标普500指数表现最差的两个板块，但自9月份FOMC会议以来，它们已成为表现最好的板块之一，其中IT指数上涨了7%以上。这波反弹究竟是科技股重夺美股话语权的开始，还是美股持续轮动中的一个短暂补涨行情，市场密切关注正在进行的美股财报季。这个财报季将左右美股风格分析师们对科技股这轮反弹的看法存在分歧。SLC Management董事总经理Dec Mullarkey认为，从大盘股到其他股票的轮换可能已经结束了，他表示：“投资者在美联储会议前转向防御，但自那以后美联储的基调和随后的数据对风险偏好非常有利。”而高级投资策略师Kevin Gordon则没有那么乐观：“我还不确信这是明确地重新转向科技股的主导地位……这似乎更像是一种迎头赶上，因为金融和工业等其他板块在科技股和大盘股之前就已经创下了新高，科技股有空间弥补一些失地，特别是因为该板块在美联储降息周期中往往表现良好。”正如Gordon所说，与以往科技“一家独涨“有所不同，在这次科技反弹中，标普500指数中超过60%的股票都有所上涨，包括工业和能源等周期性板块。陆续公布的财报将决定美股轮动还能否继续。上周，摩根大通和富国银行超预期的业绩推动银行股升至硅谷银行崩溃前的最高水平，第三季度财报季的强劲开局也增加了对美国经济前景的乐观情绪，小盘股出现强势上涨。然而，债券市场并没有像股市那样乐观，收益率一直在稳步上升，10年期美债的收益率徘徊在4%的水平。分析认为，股债之间的分歧不会永远持续下去，一旦证伪，错的一方将出现显著纠正。本周，市场将迎来高盛、强生等金融和消费巨头财报，未来一周大型科技股财报将陆续登场，接下来两周小盘股财报将密集发布。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}