107倍的PE！Arm的大问题：持股90%的大股东软银解禁，就在3月_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

107倍的PE！Arm的大问题：持股90%的大股东软银解禁，就在3月

华尔街见闻02-20

因高溢价且流通量小，市场担忧Arm的涨势将很快耗尽，使软银套现蒙受风险。芯片设计巨头Arm股价起飞让软银回了一波血，但另一个问题随之浮现：涨势能持续多久？目前，Arm90%的股份由软银持有，价值约1180亿美元。根据IPO条款，软银在3月后可出售Arm的股票，但考虑到Arm上市流通量小，可能会出现大举抛售导致股价下跌的情形。Arm股价大涨一部分缘于其超预期的业绩报告和盈利预期，但不能忽视的另一个...

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波段笑
·02-20
好公司，好股票，会更多人，更多基金投资Arm股票，值得长期持有！
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战神AAAAAAAAAA
·02-20
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Arm's big problem: SoftBank, a big shareholder with a 90% stake, lifted the ban, just in March","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d39f93bfde01e596bc64981a2802920","symbols_score_info":{"ARM":1},"content_text":"因高溢价且流通量小，市场担忧Arm的涨势将很快耗尽，使软银套现蒙受风险。芯片设计巨头Arm股价起飞让软银回了一波血，但另一个问题随之浮现：涨势能持续多久？目前，Arm90%的股份由软银持有，价值约1180亿美元。根据IPO条款，软银在3月后可出售Arm的股票，但考虑到Arm上市流通量小，可能会出现大举抛售导致股价下跌的情形。Arm股价大涨一部分缘于其超预期的业绩报告和盈利预期，但不能忽视的另一个原因是其仅有10%的股票在市场上流通，股价敏感性强，容易放大任何走势并加剧做空风险。这也是为何，尽管持有大量Arm股份，但软银的股价涨幅却低于理论预期——市场担心在3月软银解禁前，Arm的涨势会耗尽。FactSet的数据显示，Arm目前的预期市盈率为107倍，而芯片“一哥”英伟达的预期市盈率为59倍，远低于Arm，意味着Arm股价目前被显著“高估”。根据Breakingviews的测算，如果要让Arm最新估值达到符合分析师假设的营业利润率为45%的水平，Arm必须在今年财年内实现收入翻番。考虑到作为主要收入来源之一的许可证收入不稳定、难预估，且Arm赖以生存的智能手机市场的增长正在放缓，“收入翻番”的假设可能很难实现。有媒体观点分析认为，软银可以考虑采取两种途径“解困”。一是用Arm股份作抵押，但该方案的风险在于，一旦AI情绪恶化将会带来股价下跌。二是软银可以效仿此前出售阿里巴巴股份的方式，通过预付远期合约，在几年后用股票或现金结算合同，避免直接向市场抛售股票。在AI热潮的助推下，Arm从去年9月上市以来，股价已经翻了一番，自本月公布了超预期的财报以来，股价更是在三天内涨超90%，目前累计涨幅超过66%。软银股价今年以来累涨26%，自Arm公布最新财报来涨幅达到20%。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":276107499409536,"gmtCreate":1708439312407,"gmtModify":1708439314061,"author":{"id":"27243347292954","authorId":"27243347292954","name":"波段笑","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/7c6a0975a4ef28880f4cfc0fb9d00441","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"好公司，好股票，会更多人，更多基金投资Arm股票，值得长期持有！","listText":"好公司，好股票，会更多人，更多基金投资Arm股票，值得长期持有！","text":"好公司，好股票，会更多人，更多基金投资Arm股票，值得长期持有！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276107499409536","repostId":2412971711,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":275965240586368,"gmtCreate":1708413375620,"gmtModify":1708413376869,"author":{"id":"3515323953584109","authorId":"3515323953584109","name":"战神AAAAAAAAAA","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99a1e74156f7b2d16541274830055024","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/275965240586368","repostId":2412971711,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}