小摩顽固空头继续唱衰美股，建议投资者配置现金或债券_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

小摩顽固空头继续唱衰美股，建议投资者配置现金或债券

智通财经2023-12-08

摩根大通首席市场策略师Marko Kolanovic周四警告称，明年美国股市投资者将面临双输局面。该策略师在一份报告中指出，如果央行不大幅降息，股票和其他风险资产将无法维持任何潜在的上涨势头。他预计，除非市场大幅下跌或经济陷入停滞，否则不会出现这种情况。出于这个原因，他认为投资者应该选择现金或债券，而不是股票。Kolanovic表示：“这是一个进退两难的局面。这意味着，在货币环境放松和更可持续的...

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Kolanovic周四警告称，明年美国股市投资者将面临双输局面。该策略师在一份报告中指出，如果央行不大幅降息，股票和其他风险资产将无法维持任何潜在的上涨势头。他预计，除非市场大幅下跌或经济陷入停滞，否则不会出现这种情况。出于这个原因，他认为投资者应该选择现金或债券，而不是股票。Kolanovic表示：“这是一个进退两难的局面。这意味着，在货币环境放松和更可持续的反弹之前，我们需要在2024年首先看到一些市场下跌和波动。”在今年股市上涨期间一直持悲观态度的Kolanovic重申了自己的防御立场，并告知客户，债券收益率为其他资产和策略提供了“高收益门槛率”。虽然美国国债收益率已普遍回落，但他估计，即使在最乐观的经济形势下，股票的表现也只会比债券或现金高出5%左右。这位策略师表示，在他预期的经济增长放缓或衰退的环境下，股票的表现可能比现金低20%左右。“无论衰退是否发生，在此之前，股票和其他风险资产的风险回报都不如现金或债券，”Kolanovic表示。到目前为止，这位策略师对2023年的看跌预测并未成为现实，标普500指数上涨了19%，尽管今年早些时候美联储大举加息，但美国经济仍保持了弹性。Kolanovic在2022年股市暴跌的大部分时间里保持乐观，但由于宏观经济前景恶化，他于去年12月、今年1月、3月和5月削减了他的股票配置。虽然华尔街的悲观情绪有所缓和——包括美国银行、德意志银行和加拿大皇家银行资本市场在内的多家公司都认为明年美股将创下历史新高——但摩根大通的策略师们却反其道而行之，在同行中发布了对美股2024年最悲观的预测。该公司预计，到明年年底，标普500指数将跌至4200点，较周四的交易水平下跌约8%。目前，华尔街的平均目标略高于4700点。Kolanovic表示：“总的来说，我们对未来12个月风险资产的表现和更广泛的宏观前景并不乐观。”他警告称，过去18个月的利率冲击最终会影响到经济和市场。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}