国泰君安证券点评阿里巴巴：淘天拐点已至，组织架构变革值得期待_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

国泰君安证券点评阿里巴巴：淘天拐点已至，组织架构变革值得期待

金融界2023-06-12

给予“增持”评级，目标价为136港元：我们持续看好公司长远发展和后续业绩的增长。预计阿里巴巴2023年-2025年的营业收入分别为9,482/10,532/11,267亿人民币。经调整净利润分别为1,480/1,654/1,901亿人民币。根据SOTP估值法，给予目标价136港元，较最新收盘价有63%的上涨空间。短视频电商的兴起同时减少了C端和B端的流量规模，对淘天的市场份额以及广告收入产生了负向...

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YWY
·2023-06-13
6.18大麦大麦大麦🔥
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YWY
·2023-06-13
互联网零售一哥，🔥🔥🔥
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YWY
·2023-06-13
冲鸭🔥🔥🔥
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YWY
·2023-06-13
阿里🔥🚀🚀🚀
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YWY
·2023-06-13
阿里跳空高开，历史打底了🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀
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to","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"02611":1,"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9},"content_text":"给予“增持”评级，目标价为136港元：我们持续看好公司长远发展和后续业绩的增长。预计阿里巴巴2023年-2025年的营业收入分别为9,482/10,532/11,267亿人民币。经调整净利润分别为1,480/1,654/1,901亿人民币。根据SOTP估值法，给予目标价136港元，较最新收盘价有63%的上涨空间。短视频电商的兴起同时减少了C端和B端的流量规模，对淘天的市场份额以及广告收入产生了负向影响。淘天本质是流量生意，而短视频APP稀释了淘天App的用户使用时长，短视频电商的崛起减少了部分品类商家在淘天的经营时间和广告投放意愿，故导致淘天的市场份额和广告收入有所下跌。我们认为短视频电商回归常态增长意味着淘天的拐点即将到来。以抖音为例，短期内，抖音电商内容场域流量红利接近天花板，货架场域虽然短期仍持续释放流量红利，迅速成长为新的流量引擎。但从长期看，我们认为短视频平台擅长娱乐的基因虽然能够帮助平台在以内容为驱动的内容电商模式上取得先机，但很难在以“多快好省”为核心的货架电商模式上建立竞争优势。抖音并未形成差异化的优势，故对淘天的影响较为可控。阿里进行组织架构变革，淘天将重塑电商竞争力。阿里启动“1+6+N”的组织架构变革，我们看好阿里回归创业者的状态，提升组织灵敏度和组织效率，重新迎来新的发展契机。淘天后续将通过提供差异化内容供给、扶持品牌和中小商家以及推动全面AI化来巩固其市场领先地位，重新回到增长的轨道上来。风险提示：主营业务竞争风险；系统性风险；政策风险；宏观经济增速下降风险；公司组织架构改革不及预期；研报数据更新不及时等。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":186945749385376,"gmtCreate":1686665009434,"gmtModify":1686665011589,"author":{"id":"3478516704047330","authorId":"3478516704047330","name":"YWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"6.18大麦大麦大麦🔥","listText":"6.18大麦大麦大麦🔥","text":"6.18大麦大麦大麦🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186945749385376","repostId":2342577673,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":186946151772224,"gmtCreate":1686664951577,"gmtModify":1686664960077,"author":{"id":"3478516704047330","authorId":"3478516704047330","name":"YWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"互联网零售一哥，🔥🔥🔥","listText":"互联网零售一哥，🔥🔥🔥","text":"互联网零售一哥，🔥🔥🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186946151772224","repostId":2342577673,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":186944161013792,"gmtCreate":1686664460943,"gmtModify":1686664462670,"author":{"id":"3478516704047330","authorId":"3478516704047330","name":"YWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"冲鸭🔥🔥🔥","listText":"冲鸭🔥🔥🔥","text":"冲鸭🔥🔥🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186944161013792","repostId":2342577673,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":186944044838960,"gmtCreate":1686664435862,"gmtModify":1686664437860,"author":{"id":"3478516704047330","authorId":"3478516704047330","name":"YWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阿里🔥🚀🚀🚀","listText":"阿里🔥🚀🚀🚀","text":"阿里🔥🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186944044838960","repostId":2342577673,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":186943920975920,"gmtCreate":1686664405622,"gmtModify":1686664407425,"author":{"id":"3478516704047330","authorId":"3478516704047330","name":"YWY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阿里跳空高开，历史打底了🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀","listText":"阿里跳空高开，历史打底了🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀","text":"阿里跳空高开，历史打底了🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186943920975920","repostId":2342577673,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":6,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}