华尔街最准分析师：美联储最后一次加息，就是卖出的时机_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

华尔街最准分析师：美联储最后一次加息，就是卖出的时机

华尔街见闻2023-04-11

美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金，同时买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，投资者现在过于关注利率峰值和美联储可能降息的时机，同时低估了即将到来的经济衰退的风险及其对股市的影响...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

深情地与她对视了一眼
·2023-04-11
李海
回复
点赞
举报
一只傻狗
·2023-04-11
不明白什么意思，停止加息了，好日子不应该到来了吗？
回复
点赞
举报
收起
- 一只傻狗:
  哦哦，明白了！醍醐灌顶
  2023-04-11
  回复
  举报
- relx分销者:
  并且加息结束代表的是利率达到最顶峰，截止开始降息之前，利率一直是这个标准没变。
  2023-04-11
  回复
  举报
- relx分销者:
  利好出尽＝利空 [害羞]
  2023-04-11
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2326495856?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdcf7fb84fcd8462e772a725a35e3d36","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-04-11 07:36","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2326495856","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"华尔街最准分析师：美联储最后一次加息，就是卖出的时机","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金，同时买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，投资者现在过于关注利率峰值和美联储可能降息的时机，同时低估了即将到来的经济衰退的风险及其对股市的影响...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686142\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街最准分析师：美联储最后一次加息，就是卖出的时机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街最准分析师：美联储最后一次加息，就是卖出的时机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-11 07:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686142><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金，同时买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，投资者现在过于关注利率峰值和美联储可能降息的时机，同时低估了即将到来的经济衰退的风险及其对股市的影响...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686142\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686142","article_id":"2326495856","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdcf7fb84fcd8462e772a725a35e3d36"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686142","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2326495856","pubTimestamp":1681169769,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金，同时买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"translate_title":"Wall Street's most accurate analyst: the last rate hike of the Federal Reserve is the time to sell","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e5566ff0a9dac9bb55697b096ab0bb","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QLD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6},"content_text":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金，同时买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，投资者现在过于关注利率峰值和美联储可能降息的时机，同时低估了即将到来的经济衰退的风险及其对股市的影响。在上周四的一份报告中，Hartnett领导的团队建议，投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或者美联储加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售。该团队认为，这是根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。Hartnett直言：投资者对降息过于乐观，对经济衰退不够悲观。但是，衰退正在一步步走近我们，鼓声越来越响亮。该团队认为，经济衰退开始时应该采取的策略是做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金。那么什么时候是合适的调整策略的时机呢？以及，在股市层面，应该如何选择呢？该团队认为：一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。市场普遍认为，在评估经济环境后，美联储将在5月3日的议息会议上最后一次加息25基点，这意味着美联储正向全球各国央行发出重要信号，这轮激进的紧缩周期将迎来拐点。前美国财政部长萨默斯表示：随着一系列疲软的经济数据公布，这意味着美国经济衰退的可能性在上升。美联储正在接近其加息周期的尾声。从数据上来看，美国银行援引EPFR Global数据称，过去一个月投资者将4034亿美元投入货币市场基金，这是自2020年4月新冠疫情爆发之初以来最大的连续四周现金净流入。截至4月5日当周，现金流入现金总计878亿美元，另有141亿美元流入债券，6亿美元流入黄金，美国股市则流出9亿美元。3月底，Hartnett表示，由于对经济放缓的担忧加剧，投资者正以疫情爆发以来最大规模涌入货币市场基金。Hartnett预计，这种趋势将会令美国股债市场在未来三到六个月下跌：美债和美股市场过分执著于对降息的判断上，对衰退不够恐惧。上个月初，Hartnett表示，除非美国经济明确发出衰退信号，美股将依然受制于美联储。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":653495699,"gmtCreate":1681187425412,"gmtModify":1681187426847,"author":{"id":"3575441576450698","authorId":"3575441576450698","name":"深情地与她对视了一眼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/740dec384d4997fff46ccdd1da500462","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3575441576450698","idStr":"3575441576450698"},"htmlText":"李海","listText":"李海","text":"李海","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653495699","repostId":2326495856,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2326495856","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1681169769,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2326495856?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-04-11 07:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"华尔街最准分析师：美联储最后一次加息，就是卖出的时机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2326495856","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金，同时买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金，同时买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。</blockquote><p>自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，投资者现在过于关注利率峰值和美联储可能降息的时机，同时低估了即将到来的经济衰退的风险及其对股市的影响。</p><p>在上周四的一份报告中，Hartnett领导的团队建议，投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或者美联储加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售。该团队认为，这是根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。</p><p>Hartnett直言：</p><blockquote>投资者对降息过于乐观，对经济衰退不够悲观。但是，衰退正在一步步走近我们，鼓声越来越响亮。</blockquote><p>该团队认为，经济衰退开始时应该采取的策略是做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金。</p><p>那么什么时候是合适的调整策略的时机呢？以及，在股市层面，应该如何选择呢？</p><p>该团队认为：</p><blockquote>一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。</blockquote><p>市场普遍认为，在评估经济环境后，美联储将在5月3日的议息会议上最后一次加息25基点，这意味着美联储正向全球各国央行发出重要信号，这轮激进的紧缩周期将迎来拐点。前美国财政部长萨默斯表示：</p><blockquote>随着一系列疲软的经济数据公布，这意味着美国经济衰退的可能性在上升。美联储正在接近其加息周期的尾声。</blockquote><p>从数据上来看，美国银行援引EPFR Global数据称，过去一个月投资者将4034亿美元投入货币市场基金，这是自2020年4月新冠疫情爆发之初以来最大的连续四周现金净流入。截至4月5日当周，现金流入现金总计878亿美元，另有141亿美元流入债券，6亿美元流入黄金，美国股市则流出9亿美元。</p><p>3月底，Hartnett表示，由于对经济放缓的担忧加剧，投资者正以疫情爆发以来最大规模涌入货币市场基金。Hartnett预计，这种趋势将会令美国股债市场在未来三到六个月下跌：</p><blockquote>美债和美股市场过分执著于对降息的判断上，对衰退不够恐惧。</blockquote><p>上个月初，Hartnett表示，除非美国经济明确发出衰退信号，美股将依然受制于美联储。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华尔街最准分析师：美联储最后一次加息，就是卖出的时机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街最准分析师：美联储最后一次加息，就是卖出的时机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-11 07:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686142><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金，同时买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，投资者现在过于关注利率峰值和美联储可能降息的时机，同时低估了即将到来的经济衰退的风险及其对股市的影响...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686142\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdcf7fb84fcd8462e772a725a35e3d36","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3686142","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2326495856","content_text":"美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金，同时买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。自去年以来华尔街预测最准确的分析师、美国银行策略分析师Michael Hartnett认为，投资者现在过于关注利率峰值和美联储可能降息的时机，同时低估了即将到来的经济衰退的风险及其对股市的影响。在上周四的一份报告中，Hartnett领导的团队建议，投资者应该在美联储最后一次加息时或者美联储加息接近结束时就抛售美股，而不是在加息结束之后才抛售。该团队认为，这是根据1970和80年代的经验得出的结论，在那二十年中，每次加息周期结束的三个月内，美股都在下跌。Hartnett直言：投资者对降息过于乐观，对经济衰退不够悲观。但是，衰退正在一步步走近我们，鼓声越来越响亮。该团队认为，经济衰退开始时应该采取的策略是做多美国国债、收益率曲线变陡交易和黄金。那么什么时候是合适的调整策略的时机呢？以及，在股市层面，应该如何选择呢？该团队认为：一旦美国劳动力市场的动向表明衰退开始，就买入陷入困境的周期性股票，例如银行、房地产投资信托基金、大宗商品等。市场普遍认为，在评估经济环境后，美联储将在5月3日的议息会议上最后一次加息25基点，这意味着美联储正向全球各国央行发出重要信号，这轮激进的紧缩周期将迎来拐点。前美国财政部长萨默斯表示：随着一系列疲软的经济数据公布，这意味着美国经济衰退的可能性在上升。美联储正在接近其加息周期的尾声。从数据上来看，美国银行援引EPFR Global数据称，过去一个月投资者将4034亿美元投入货币市场基金，这是自2020年4月新冠疫情爆发之初以来最大的连续四周现金净流入。截至4月5日当周，现金流入现金总计878亿美元，另有141亿美元流入债券，6亿美元流入黄金，美国股市则流出9亿美元。3月底，Hartnett表示，由于对经济放缓的担忧加剧，投资者正以疫情爆发以来最大规模涌入货币市场基金。Hartnett预计，这种趋势将会令美国股债市场在未来三到六个月下跌：美债和美股市场过分执著于对降息的判断上，对衰退不够恐惧。上个月初，Hartnett表示，除非美国经济明确发出衰退信号，美股将依然受制于美联储。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".IXIC":1,"QLD":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,".DJI":1,"OEF":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SPY":1,"NQmain":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"SSO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":653495976,"gmtCreate":1681187216395,"gmtModify":1681187219192,"author":{"id":"4124695785833752","authorId":"4124695785833752","name":"一只傻狗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613940ec3a89588246847819b2a9db85","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4124695785833752","idStr":"4124695785833752"},"htmlText":"不明白什么意思，停止加息了，好日子不应该到来了吗？","listText":"不明白什么意思，停止加息了，好日子不应该到来了吗？","text":"不明白什么意思，停止加息了，好日子不应该到来了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653495976","repostId":2326495856,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7947004,"gmtCreate":1681208205914,"gmtModify":1681208209538,"authorId":4124695785833752,"author":{"id":4124695785833752,"idStr":"4124695785833752","authorId":4124695785833752,"name":"一只傻狗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/613940ec3a89588246847819b2a9db85","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":653495976,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"哦哦，明白了！醍醐灌顶","text":"哦哦，明白了！醍醐灌顶","html":"哦哦，明白了！醍醐灌顶"},{"id":7946768,"gmtCreate":1681189523385,"gmtModify":1681189527455,"authorId":3578029344203599,"author":{"id":3578029344203599,"idStr":"3578029344203599","authorId":3578029344203599,"name":"relx分销者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eaa979376989e28bb9e6c34d588258a","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e2c640e5de444f3b84fa7170b007e676-1-RLX","templateUuid":"e2c640e5de444f3b84fa7170b007e676","name":"“RLX科技”人气虎","description":"一周内发布的“RLX科技”相关帖子优质程度排名前3","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ba70f50467799d43bcf1b3972785ba7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecd4bad5ec93214c9325a5452cdd1b5","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":"RLX","stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":1,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.01.26","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2002},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":653495976,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"并且加息结束代表的是利率达到最顶峰，截止开始降息之前，利率一直是这个标准没变。","text":"并且加息结束代表的是利率达到最顶峰，截止开始降息之前，利率一直是这个标准没变。","html":"并且加息结束代表的是利率达到最顶峰，截止开始降息之前，利率一直是这个标准没变。"},{"id":7946767,"gmtCreate":1681189468626,"gmtModify":1681189472337,"authorId":3578029344203599,"author":{"id":3578029344203599,"idStr":"3578029344203599","authorId":3578029344203599,"name":"relx分销者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eaa979376989e28bb9e6c34d588258a","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e2c640e5de444f3b84fa7170b007e676-1-RLX","templateUuid":"e2c640e5de444f3b84fa7170b007e676","name":"“RLX科技”人气虎","description":"一周内发布的“RLX科技”相关帖子优质程度排名前3","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ba70f50467799d43bcf1b3972785ba7","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ecd4bad5ec93214c9325a5452cdd1b5","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stamp":"RLX","stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":1,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.01.26","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2002},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":653495976,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"利好出尽＝利空 [害羞]","text":"利好出尽＝利空 [害羞]","html":"利好出尽＝利空 [害羞]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":14,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}