The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy

MarketWatch2022-02-07

Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U....

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-07 19:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nInvestors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U....\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page","article_id":"2209466983","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209466983","pubTimestamp":1644232684,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly c","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"随着投资者涌入与美联储货币政策挂钩的押注，下一轮“痛苦交易”可能即将到来","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt & Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when hedge funds incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their need to short-cover, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":633524817,"gmtCreate":1644235010808,"gmtModify":1644235011582,"author":{"id":"3574813808924805","authorId":"3574813808924805","name":"JemLIm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9608155c1d123b0bf9fc773916aac7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574813808924805","idStr":"3574813808924805"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633524817","repostId":2209466983,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209466983","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644232684,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2209466983?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-07 19:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209466983","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly c","content":"<html><head></head><body>Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>投资者可能会为下一次所谓的“痛苦”交易做好准备，市场参与者越来越多地围绕美联储需要采取积极行动来对抗美国持续通胀的预期而团结起来。</body></html></blockquote>As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.<blockquote>随着交易员准备迎接今年从3月份开始的一系列加息，如果市场预期突然发生变化，许多人可能会在旨在从预期货币政策举措中获利的拥挤押注中措手不及。</blockquote>Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<blockquote>周五公布的1月份就业增长出人意料地强劲，这为美联储下个月加息提供了更大的可信度，加息幅度可能比往常大0.50个百分点，而央行政策利率目标年底可能在1.75%之间的可能性根据CME FedWatch工具，2%也有所上升。</blockquote>The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.<blockquote>问题在于，COVID-19大流行已将美国可能的经济结果范围分为两个方向，这两个方向可能在任何一天发生变化：一个方向倾向于更高的政策和市场利率，因为美联储和其他央行试图解决持续的问题通货膨胀。另一种观点支持降低利率的观点，理由是经济过于脆弱，无法应对过多的紧缩，通胀随后应该会减弱。</blockquote>That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.<blockquote>如果市场叙事突然转变，这使得那些准备接受更高美国政策利率的人面临潜在损失。</blockquote>“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?<blockquote>纽约对冲基金WinShore Capital Partners的TIPS交易员胡刚在周五就业报告发布后发布的一份报告中写道：“这个市场的共识观点让我感到害怕。”“通读街上的各种研究论文，我找不到任何人意见相左。但如果我们都同意并采取相同的立场，谁会把我们”带出这个行业？</blockquote>Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.<blockquote>周五强劲的非农就业报告伴随着美国国债收益率上升，10年期国债利率突破1.9%，股市站稳脚跟，投资者为美联储似乎肯定会放弃宽松货币立场做好了准备，而宽松货币立场使美联储保持在当前0%至0.25%之间的水平。然而，就在几个月前，一些最老练的投资者——对冲基金——还对美联储和英国央行出人意料的鸽派转向以及债券市场收益率曲线的趋平感到措手不及。</blockquote>The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.<blockquote>胡在电话中告诉MarketWatch，疫情的意外性质产生了足够多的不确定性，让人们对前景产生了挥之不去的疑虑，首先是新一波COVID-19病例随时可能重新出现，经济增长可能会逐渐放缓。，从而降低通货膨胀。他的观点得到了国债收益率曲线（即短期收益率与长期收益率之间的利差）的支持，尽管就业报告出人意料地强劲，但周五国债收益率曲线进一步收窄。</blockquote>“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”<blockquote>“我们都在追随央行，相信他们告诉我们的一切，”他说。“但我想他们可能会在另一个时间告诉我们一些不同的事情。”</blockquote>Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.<blockquote>胡表示，基金管理行业的整合加剧了未来的风险，更少的人控制更多的资金，获得相同的信息，做出相同的赌注——一家金融公司突破了10万亿美元的门槛。由于控制如此之少，“谁有足够的规模成为他们的交易对手并将他们排除在交易之外？”他写道。</blockquote>The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt &amp; Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.<blockquote>交易另一方缺乏足够规模的交易对手意味着平仓成本变得更高。“你可以执行，但如果你被迫出售，退出可能是一个痛苦的调整，”纽约债券承销商Roosevelt&amp;Cross的首席交易员约翰·法拉威尔(John Farawell)表示。</blockquote>Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”<blockquote>法拉威尔指出，周五的就业报告“震惊了所有人”，这是一个例子，说明群体很容易被证明是错误的。“现在的问题是，美联储是否会加息25或50个基点，当我看到每个人都以同样的方式看待时，痛苦的交易可能会发生。由于许多人认为曲线会变平，现在可能会变陡，这是下一个痛苦的交易。”</blockquote>The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">hedge funds</a> incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">need to short-cover</a>, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.<blockquote>去年年底，在一个受欢迎的赌注中站在错误一边的困难就凸显出来了，当时<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">对冲基金</a>因美国和世界各地利率方向的错误头寸而遭受重大损失。他们的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">需要做空回补</a>或回购证券以平仓未平仓空头头寸，据说是导致11月初国债收益率下降的因素之一。</blockquote>An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.<blockquote>原油等其他市场可能会出现市场参与者缺失的情况，导致价格波动更大。石油价格信息服务全球能源分析主管汤姆·克洛扎表示，在疫情期间，原油市场失去了一些参与者，特别是那些曾经充当“断路器”的公司。因此，一些勘探和生产公司表示，他们不会在期货中对冲，“参与者的减少意味着更大的波动，”克洛扎说。</blockquote>Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.<blockquote>投资者现在将注意力转向下周四的消费者价格指数报告，交易员和经济学家预计该报告的总体同比涨幅约为7.2%。交易员还预计，2月份的数据将达到7.4%，3月份将达到7.2%，然后年度CPI将在年底开始逐渐降至3.3%。</blockquote>“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.<blockquote>费城格伦梅德投资管理公司(Glenmede Investment Management)固定收益总监罗布·戴利(Rob Daly)表示：“在通胀影响市场时，肯定有二元方式来看待通胀，但观点并没有像我希望的那样分散。”</blockquote>“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”<blockquote>他在电话中表示：“如果通胀放缓速度快于预期，利率迅速下降，10年期国债收益率回落至1.50%，这将伤害那些准备大幅加息的人。”“或者它可能来自通胀持续和风险的消除。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-02-07 19:18\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>投资者可能会为下一次所谓的“痛苦”交易做好准备，市场参与者越来越多地围绕美联储需要采取积极行动来对抗美国持续通胀的预期而团结起来。</body></html></blockquote>As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.<blockquote>随着交易员准备迎接今年从3月份开始的一系列加息，如果市场预期突然发生变化，许多人可能会在旨在从预期货币政策举措中获利的拥挤押注中措手不及。</blockquote>Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<blockquote>周五公布的1月份就业增长出人意料地强劲，这为美联储下个月加息提供了更大的可信度，加息幅度可能比往常大0.50个百分点，而央行政策利率目标年底可能在1.75%之间的可能性根据CME FedWatch工具，2%也有所上升。</blockquote>The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.<blockquote>问题在于，COVID-19大流行已将美国可能的经济结果范围分为两个方向，这两个方向可能在任何一天发生变化：一个方向倾向于更高的政策和市场利率，因为美联储和其他央行试图解决持续的问题通货膨胀。另一种观点支持降低利率的观点，理由是经济过于脆弱，无法应对过多的紧缩，通胀随后应该会减弱。</blockquote>That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.<blockquote>如果市场叙事突然转变，这使得那些准备接受更高美国政策利率的人面临潜在损失。</blockquote>“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?<blockquote>纽约对冲基金WinShore Capital Partners的TIPS交易员胡刚在周五就业报告发布后发布的一份报告中写道：“这个市场的共识观点让我感到害怕。”“通读街上的各种研究论文，我找不到任何人意见相左。但如果我们都同意并采取相同的立场，谁会把我们”带出这个行业？</blockquote>Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.<blockquote>周五强劲的非农就业报告伴随着美国国债收益率上升，10年期国债利率突破1.9%，股市站稳脚跟，投资者为美联储似乎肯定会放弃宽松货币立场做好了准备，而宽松货币立场使美联储保持在当前0%至0.25%之间的水平。然而，就在几个月前，一些最老练的投资者——对冲基金——还对美联储和英国央行出人意料的鸽派转向以及债券市场收益率曲线的趋平感到措手不及。</blockquote>The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.<blockquote>胡在电话中告诉MarketWatch，疫情的意外性质产生了足够多的不确定性，让人们对前景产生了挥之不去的疑虑，首先是新一波COVID-19病例随时可能重新出现，经济增长可能会逐渐放缓。，从而降低通货膨胀。他的观点得到了国债收益率曲线（即短期收益率与长期收益率之间的利差）的支持，尽管就业报告出人意料地强劲，但周五国债收益率曲线进一步收窄。</blockquote>“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”<blockquote>“我们都在追随央行，相信他们告诉我们的一切，”他说。“但我想他们可能会在另一个时间告诉我们一些不同的事情。”</blockquote>Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.<blockquote>胡表示，基金管理行业的整合加剧了未来的风险，更少的人控制更多的资金，获得相同的信息，做出相同的赌注——一家金融公司突破了10万亿美元的门槛。由于控制如此之少，“谁有足够的规模成为他们的交易对手并将他们排除在交易之外？”他写道。</blockquote>The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt &amp; Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.<blockquote>交易另一方缺乏足够规模的交易对手意味着平仓成本变得更高。“你可以执行，但如果你被迫出售，退出可能是一个痛苦的调整，”纽约债券承销商Roosevelt&amp;Cross的首席交易员约翰·法拉威尔(John Farawell)表示。</blockquote>Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”<blockquote>法拉威尔指出，周五的就业报告“震惊了所有人”，这是一个例子，说明群体很容易被证明是错误的。“现在的问题是，美联储是否会加息25或50个基点，当我看到每个人都以同样的方式看待时，痛苦的交易可能会发生。由于许多人认为曲线会变平，现在可能会变陡，这是下一个痛苦的交易。”</blockquote>The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">hedge funds</a> incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">need to short-cover</a>, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.<blockquote>去年年底，在一个受欢迎的赌注中站在错误一边的困难就凸显出来了，当时<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">对冲基金</a>因美国和世界各地利率方向的错误头寸而遭受重大损失。他们的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">需要做空回补</a>或回购证券以平仓未平仓空头头寸，据说是导致11月初国债收益率下降的因素之一。</blockquote>An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.<blockquote>原油等其他市场可能会出现市场参与者缺失的情况，导致价格波动更大。石油价格信息服务全球能源分析主管汤姆·克洛扎表示，在疫情期间，原油市场失去了一些参与者，特别是那些曾经充当“断路器”的公司。因此，一些勘探和生产公司表示，他们不会在期货中对冲，“参与者的减少意味着更大的波动，”克洛扎说。</blockquote>Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.<blockquote>投资者现在将注意力转向下周四的消费者价格指数报告，交易员和经济学家预计该报告的总体同比涨幅约为7.2%。交易员还预计，2月份的数据将达到7.4%，3月份将达到7.2%，然后年度CPI将在年底开始逐渐降至3.3%。</blockquote>“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.<blockquote>费城格伦梅德投资管理公司(Glenmede Investment Management)固定收益总监罗布·戴利(Rob Daly)表示：“在通胀影响市场时，肯定有二元方式来看待通胀，但观点并没有像我希望的那样分散。”</blockquote>“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”<blockquote>他在电话中表示：“如果通胀放缓速度快于预期，利率迅速下降，10年期国债收益率回落至1.50%，这将伤害那些准备大幅加息的人。”“或者它可能来自通胀持续和风险的消除。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209466983","content_text":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt & Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when hedge funds incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their need to short-cover, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":633258967,"gmtCreate":1644162942730,"gmtModify":1644162942887,"author":{"id":"3574927733378333","authorId":"3574927733378333","name":"KL123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574927733378333","idStr":"3574927733378333"},"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633258967","repostId":2209466983,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209466983","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644232684,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2209466983?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-07 19:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209466983","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly c","content":"<html><head></head><body>Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>投资者可能会为下一次所谓的“痛苦”交易做好准备，市场参与者越来越多地围绕美联储需要采取积极行动来对抗美国持续通胀的预期而团结起来。</body></html></blockquote>As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.<blockquote>随着交易员准备迎接今年从3月份开始的一系列加息，如果市场预期突然发生变化，许多人可能会在旨在从预期货币政策举措中获利的拥挤押注中措手不及。</blockquote>Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<blockquote>周五公布的1月份就业增长出人意料地强劲，这为美联储下个月加息提供了更大的可信度，加息幅度可能比往常大0.50个百分点，而央行政策利率目标年底可能在1.75%之间的可能性根据CME FedWatch工具，2%也有所上升。</blockquote>The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.<blockquote>问题在于，COVID-19大流行已将美国可能的经济结果范围分为两个方向，这两个方向可能在任何一天发生变化：一个方向倾向于更高的政策和市场利率，因为美联储和其他央行试图解决持续的问题通货膨胀。另一种观点支持降低利率的观点，理由是经济过于脆弱，无法应对过多的紧缩，通胀随后应该会减弱。</blockquote>That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.<blockquote>如果市场叙事突然转变，这使得那些准备接受更高美国政策利率的人面临潜在损失。</blockquote>“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?<blockquote>纽约对冲基金WinShore Capital Partners的TIPS交易员胡刚在周五就业报告发布后发布的一份报告中写道：“这个市场的共识观点让我感到害怕。”“通读街上的各种研究论文，我找不到任何人意见相左。但如果我们都同意并采取相同的立场，谁会把我们”带出这个行业？</blockquote>Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.<blockquote>周五强劲的非农就业报告伴随着美国国债收益率上升，10年期国债利率突破1.9%，股市站稳脚跟，投资者为美联储似乎肯定会放弃宽松货币立场做好了准备，而宽松货币立场使美联储保持在当前0%至0.25%之间的水平。然而，就在几个月前，一些最老练的投资者——对冲基金——还对美联储和英国央行出人意料的鸽派转向以及债券市场收益率曲线的趋平感到措手不及。</blockquote>The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.<blockquote>胡在电话中告诉MarketWatch，疫情的意外性质产生了足够多的不确定性，让人们对前景产生了挥之不去的疑虑，首先是新一波COVID-19病例随时可能重新出现，经济增长可能会逐渐放缓。，从而降低通货膨胀。他的观点得到了国债收益率曲线（即短期收益率与长期收益率之间的利差）的支持，尽管就业报告出人意料地强劲，但周五国债收益率曲线进一步收窄。</blockquote>“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”<blockquote>“我们都在追随央行，相信他们告诉我们的一切，”他说。“但我想他们可能会在另一个时间告诉我们一些不同的事情。”</blockquote>Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.<blockquote>胡表示，基金管理行业的整合加剧了未来的风险，更少的人控制更多的资金，获得相同的信息，做出相同的赌注——一家金融公司突破了10万亿美元的门槛。由于控制如此之少，“谁有足够的规模成为他们的交易对手并将他们排除在交易之外？”他写道。</blockquote>The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt &amp; Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.<blockquote>交易另一方缺乏足够规模的交易对手意味着平仓成本变得更高。“你可以执行，但如果你被迫出售，退出可能是一个痛苦的调整，”纽约债券承销商Roosevelt&amp;Cross的首席交易员约翰·法拉威尔(John Farawell)表示。</blockquote>Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”<blockquote>法拉威尔指出，周五的就业报告“震惊了所有人”，这是一个例子，说明群体很容易被证明是错误的。“现在的问题是，美联储是否会加息25或50个基点，当我看到每个人都以同样的方式看待时，痛苦的交易可能会发生。由于许多人认为曲线会变平，现在可能会变陡，这是下一个痛苦的交易。”</blockquote>The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">hedge funds</a> incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">need to short-cover</a>, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.<blockquote>去年年底，在一个受欢迎的赌注中站在错误一边的困难就凸显出来了，当时<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">对冲基金</a>因美国和世界各地利率方向的错误头寸而遭受重大损失。他们的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">需要做空回补</a>或回购证券以平仓未平仓空头头寸，据说是导致11月初国债收益率下降的因素之一。</blockquote>An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.<blockquote>原油等其他市场可能会出现市场参与者缺失的情况，导致价格波动更大。石油价格信息服务全球能源分析主管汤姆·克洛扎表示，在疫情期间，原油市场失去了一些参与者，特别是那些曾经充当“断路器”的公司。因此，一些勘探和生产公司表示，他们不会在期货中对冲，“参与者的减少意味着更大的波动，”克洛扎说。</blockquote>Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.<blockquote>投资者现在将注意力转向下周四的消费者价格指数报告，交易员和经济学家预计该报告的总体同比涨幅约为7.2%。交易员还预计，2月份的数据将达到7.4%，3月份将达到7.2%，然后年度CPI将在年底开始逐渐降至3.3%。</blockquote>“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.<blockquote>费城格伦梅德投资管理公司(Glenmede Investment Management)固定收益总监罗布·戴利(Rob Daly)表示：“在通胀影响市场时，肯定有二元方式来看待通胀，但观点并没有像我希望的那样分散。”</blockquote>“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”<blockquote>他在电话中表示：“如果通胀放缓速度快于预期，利率迅速下降，10年期国债收益率回落至1.50%，这将伤害那些准备大幅加息的人。”“或者它可能来自通胀持续和风险的消除。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-02-07 19:18\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>投资者可能会为下一次所谓的“痛苦”交易做好准备，市场参与者越来越多地围绕美联储需要采取积极行动来对抗美国持续通胀的预期而团结起来。</body></html></blockquote>As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.<blockquote>随着交易员准备迎接今年从3月份开始的一系列加息，如果市场预期突然发生变化，许多人可能会在旨在从预期货币政策举措中获利的拥挤押注中措手不及。</blockquote>Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<blockquote>周五公布的1月份就业增长出人意料地强劲，这为美联储下个月加息提供了更大的可信度，加息幅度可能比往常大0.50个百分点，而央行政策利率目标年底可能在1.75%之间的可能性根据CME FedWatch工具，2%也有所上升。</blockquote>The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.<blockquote>问题在于，COVID-19大流行已将美国可能的经济结果范围分为两个方向，这两个方向可能在任何一天发生变化：一个方向倾向于更高的政策和市场利率，因为美联储和其他央行试图解决持续的问题通货膨胀。另一种观点支持降低利率的观点，理由是经济过于脆弱，无法应对过多的紧缩，通胀随后应该会减弱。</blockquote>That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.<blockquote>如果市场叙事突然转变，这使得那些准备接受更高美国政策利率的人面临潜在损失。</blockquote>“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?<blockquote>纽约对冲基金WinShore Capital Partners的TIPS交易员胡刚在周五就业报告发布后发布的一份报告中写道：“这个市场的共识观点让我感到害怕。”“通读街上的各种研究论文，我找不到任何人意见相左。但如果我们都同意并采取相同的立场，谁会把我们”带出这个行业？</blockquote>Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.<blockquote>周五强劲的非农就业报告伴随着美国国债收益率上升，10年期国债利率突破1.9%，股市站稳脚跟，投资者为美联储似乎肯定会放弃宽松货币立场做好了准备，而宽松货币立场使美联储保持在当前0%至0.25%之间的水平。然而，就在几个月前，一些最老练的投资者——对冲基金——还对美联储和英国央行出人意料的鸽派转向以及债券市场收益率曲线的趋平感到措手不及。</blockquote>The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.<blockquote>胡在电话中告诉MarketWatch，疫情的意外性质产生了足够多的不确定性，让人们对前景产生了挥之不去的疑虑，首先是新一波COVID-19病例随时可能重新出现，经济增长可能会逐渐放缓。，从而降低通货膨胀。他的观点得到了国债收益率曲线（即短期收益率与长期收益率之间的利差）的支持，尽管就业报告出人意料地强劲，但周五国债收益率曲线进一步收窄。</blockquote>“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”<blockquote>“我们都在追随央行，相信他们告诉我们的一切，”他说。“但我想他们可能会在另一个时间告诉我们一些不同的事情。”</blockquote>Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.<blockquote>胡表示，基金管理行业的整合加剧了未来的风险，更少的人控制更多的资金，获得相同的信息，做出相同的赌注——一家金融公司突破了10万亿美元的门槛。由于控制如此之少，“谁有足够的规模成为他们的交易对手并将他们排除在交易之外？”他写道。</blockquote>The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt &amp; Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.<blockquote>交易另一方缺乏足够规模的交易对手意味着平仓成本变得更高。“你可以执行，但如果你被迫出售，退出可能是一个痛苦的调整，”纽约债券承销商Roosevelt&amp;Cross的首席交易员约翰·法拉威尔(John Farawell)表示。</blockquote>Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”<blockquote>法拉威尔指出，周五的就业报告“震惊了所有人”，这是一个例子，说明群体很容易被证明是错误的。“现在的问题是，美联储是否会加息25或50个基点，当我看到每个人都以同样的方式看待时，痛苦的交易可能会发生。由于许多人认为曲线会变平，现在可能会变陡，这是下一个痛苦的交易。”</blockquote>The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">hedge funds</a> incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">need to short-cover</a>, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.<blockquote>去年年底，在一个受欢迎的赌注中站在错误一边的困难就凸显出来了，当时<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">对冲基金</a>因美国和世界各地利率方向的错误头寸而遭受重大损失。他们的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">需要做空回补</a>或回购证券以平仓未平仓空头头寸，据说是导致11月初国债收益率下降的因素之一。</blockquote>An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.<blockquote>原油等其他市场可能会出现市场参与者缺失的情况，导致价格波动更大。石油价格信息服务全球能源分析主管汤姆·克洛扎表示，在疫情期间，原油市场失去了一些参与者，特别是那些曾经充当“断路器”的公司。因此，一些勘探和生产公司表示，他们不会在期货中对冲，“参与者的减少意味着更大的波动，”克洛扎说。</blockquote>Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.<blockquote>投资者现在将注意力转向下周四的消费者价格指数报告，交易员和经济学家预计该报告的总体同比涨幅约为7.2%。交易员还预计，2月份的数据将达到7.4%，3月份将达到7.2%，然后年度CPI将在年底开始逐渐降至3.3%。</blockquote>“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.<blockquote>费城格伦梅德投资管理公司(Glenmede Investment Management)固定收益总监罗布·戴利(Rob Daly)表示：“在通胀影响市场时，肯定有二元方式来看待通胀，但观点并没有像我希望的那样分散。”</blockquote>“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”<blockquote>他在电话中表示：“如果通胀放缓速度快于预期，利率迅速下降，10年期国债收益率回落至1.50%，这将伤害那些准备大幅加息的人。”“或者它可能来自通胀持续和风险的消除。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209466983","content_text":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt & Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when hedge funds incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their need to short-cover, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7233645,"gmtCreate":1644235006663,"gmtModify":1644235006774,"authorId":3574813808924805,"author":{"id":3574813808924805,"idStr":"3574813808924805","authorId":3574813808924805,"name":"JemLIm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee9608155c1d123b0bf9fc773916aac7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":633258967,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"cool","text":"cool","html":"cool"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":633656843,"gmtCreate":1644029547821,"gmtModify":1644029548009,"author":{"id":"3575499385722971","authorId":"3575499385722971","name":"bobbylim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d9753dcafa04623c0e98c0bcaa291ae","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575499385722971","idStr":"3575499385722971"},"htmlText":"Lets go","listText":"Lets go","text":"Lets go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633656843","repostId":2209466983,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2209466983","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1644232684,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2209466983?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-07 19:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2209466983","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly c","content":"<html><head></head><body>Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>投资者可能会为下一次所谓的“痛苦”交易做好准备，市场参与者越来越多地围绕美联储需要采取积极行动来对抗美国持续通胀的预期而团结起来。</body></html></blockquote>As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.<blockquote>随着交易员准备迎接今年从3月份开始的一系列加息，如果市场预期突然发生变化，许多人可能会在旨在从预期货币政策举措中获利的拥挤押注中措手不及。</blockquote>Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<blockquote>周五公布的1月份就业增长出人意料地强劲，这为美联储下个月加息提供了更大的可信度，加息幅度可能比往常大0.50个百分点，而央行政策利率目标年底可能在1.75%之间的可能性根据CME FedWatch工具，2%也有所上升。</blockquote>The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.<blockquote>问题在于，COVID-19大流行已将美国可能的经济结果范围分为两个方向，这两个方向可能在任何一天发生变化：一个方向倾向于更高的政策和市场利率，因为美联储和其他央行试图解决持续的问题通货膨胀。另一种观点支持降低利率的观点，理由是经济过于脆弱，无法应对过多的紧缩，通胀随后应该会减弱。</blockquote>That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.<blockquote>如果市场叙事突然转变，这使得那些准备接受更高美国政策利率的人面临潜在损失。</blockquote>“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?<blockquote>纽约对冲基金WinShore Capital Partners的TIPS交易员胡刚在周五就业报告发布后发布的一份报告中写道：“这个市场的共识观点让我感到害怕。”“通读街上的各种研究论文，我找不到任何人意见相左。但如果我们都同意并采取相同的立场，谁会把我们”带出这个行业？</blockquote>Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.<blockquote>周五强劲的非农就业报告伴随着美国国债收益率上升，10年期国债利率突破1.9%，股市站稳脚跟，投资者为美联储似乎肯定会放弃宽松货币立场做好了准备，而宽松货币立场使美联储保持在当前0%至0.25%之间的水平。然而，就在几个月前，一些最老练的投资者——对冲基金——还对美联储和英国央行出人意料的鸽派转向以及债券市场收益率曲线的趋平感到措手不及。</blockquote>The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.<blockquote>胡在电话中告诉MarketWatch，疫情的意外性质产生了足够多的不确定性，让人们对前景产生了挥之不去的疑虑，首先是新一波COVID-19病例随时可能重新出现，经济增长可能会逐渐放缓。，从而降低通货膨胀。他的观点得到了国债收益率曲线（即短期收益率与长期收益率之间的利差）的支持，尽管就业报告出人意料地强劲，但周五国债收益率曲线进一步收窄。</blockquote>“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”<blockquote>“我们都在追随央行，相信他们告诉我们的一切，”他说。“但我想他们可能会在另一个时间告诉我们一些不同的事情。”</blockquote>Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.<blockquote>胡表示，基金管理行业的整合加剧了未来的风险，更少的人控制更多的资金，获得相同的信息，做出相同的赌注——一家金融公司突破了10万亿美元的门槛。由于控制如此之少，“谁有足够的规模成为他们的交易对手并将他们排除在交易之外？”他写道。</blockquote>The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt &amp; Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.<blockquote>交易另一方缺乏足够规模的交易对手意味着平仓成本变得更高。“你可以执行，但如果你被迫出售，退出可能是一个痛苦的调整，”纽约债券承销商Roosevelt&amp;Cross的首席交易员约翰·法拉威尔(John Farawell)表示。</blockquote>Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”<blockquote>法拉威尔指出，周五的就业报告“震惊了所有人”，这是一个例子，说明群体很容易被证明是错误的。“现在的问题是，美联储是否会加息25或50个基点，当我看到每个人都以同样的方式看待时，痛苦的交易可能会发生。由于许多人认为曲线会变平，现在可能会变陡，这是下一个痛苦的交易。”</blockquote>The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">hedge funds</a> incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">need to short-cover</a>, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.<blockquote>去年年底，在一个受欢迎的赌注中站在错误一边的困难就凸显出来了，当时<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">对冲基金</a>因美国和世界各地利率方向的错误头寸而遭受重大损失。他们的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">需要做空回补</a>或回购证券以平仓未平仓空头头寸，据说是导致11月初国债收益率下降的因素之一。</blockquote>An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.<blockquote>原油等其他市场可能会出现市场参与者缺失的情况，导致价格波动更大。石油价格信息服务全球能源分析主管汤姆·克洛扎表示，在疫情期间，原油市场失去了一些参与者，特别是那些曾经充当“断路器”的公司。因此，一些勘探和生产公司表示，他们不会在期货中对冲，“参与者的减少意味着更大的波动，”克洛扎说。</blockquote>Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.<blockquote>投资者现在将注意力转向下周四的消费者价格指数报告，交易员和经济学家预计该报告的总体同比涨幅约为7.2%。交易员还预计，2月份的数据将达到7.4%，3月份将达到7.2%，然后年度CPI将在年底开始逐渐降至3.3%。</blockquote>“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.<blockquote>费城格伦梅德投资管理公司(Glenmede Investment Management)固定收益总监罗布·戴利(Rob Daly)表示：“在通胀影响市场时，肯定有二元方式来看待通胀，但观点并没有像我希望的那样分散。”</blockquote>“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”<blockquote>他在电话中表示：“如果通胀放缓速度快于预期，利率迅速下降，10年期国债收益率回落至1.50%，这将伤害那些准备大幅加息的人。”“或者它可能来自通胀持续和风险的消除。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Next 'Pain Trade' Could Be on the Horizon as Investors Crowd into Bets Pegged to Fed Monetary Policy<blockquote>随着投资者纷纷押注美联储货币政策，下一次“痛苦交易”可能即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-02-07 19:18\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>投资者可能会为下一次所谓的“痛苦”交易做好准备，市场参与者越来越多地围绕美联储需要采取积极行动来对抗美国持续通胀的预期而团结起来。</body></html></blockquote>As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.<blockquote>随着交易员准备迎接今年从3月份开始的一系列加息，如果市场预期突然发生变化，许多人可能会在旨在从预期货币政策举措中获利的拥挤押注中措手不及。</blockquote>Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.<blockquote>周五公布的1月份就业增长出人意料地强劲，这为美联储下个月加息提供了更大的可信度，加息幅度可能比往常大0.50个百分点，而央行政策利率目标年底可能在1.75%之间的可能性根据CME FedWatch工具，2%也有所上升。</blockquote>The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.<blockquote>问题在于，COVID-19大流行已将美国可能的经济结果范围分为两个方向，这两个方向可能在任何一天发生变化：一个方向倾向于更高的政策和市场利率，因为美联储和其他央行试图解决持续的问题通货膨胀。另一种观点支持降低利率的观点，理由是经济过于脆弱，无法应对过多的紧缩，通胀随后应该会减弱。</blockquote>That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.<blockquote>如果市场叙事突然转变，这使得那些准备接受更高美国政策利率的人面临潜在损失。</blockquote>“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?<blockquote>纽约对冲基金WinShore Capital Partners的TIPS交易员胡刚在周五就业报告发布后发布的一份报告中写道：“这个市场的共识观点让我感到害怕。”“通读街上的各种研究论文，我找不到任何人意见相左。但如果我们都同意并采取相同的立场，谁会把我们”带出这个行业？</blockquote>Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.<blockquote>周五强劲的非农就业报告伴随着美国国债收益率上升，10年期国债利率突破1.9%，股市站稳脚跟，投资者为美联储似乎肯定会放弃宽松货币立场做好了准备，而宽松货币立场使美联储保持在当前0%至0.25%之间的水平。然而，就在几个月前，一些最老练的投资者——对冲基金——还对美联储和英国央行出人意料的鸽派转向以及债券市场收益率曲线的趋平感到措手不及。</blockquote>The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.<blockquote>胡在电话中告诉MarketWatch，疫情的意外性质产生了足够多的不确定性，让人们对前景产生了挥之不去的疑虑，首先是新一波COVID-19病例随时可能重新出现，经济增长可能会逐渐放缓。，从而降低通货膨胀。他的观点得到了国债收益率曲线（即短期收益率与长期收益率之间的利差）的支持，尽管就业报告出人意料地强劲，但周五国债收益率曲线进一步收窄。</blockquote>“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”<blockquote>“我们都在追随央行，相信他们告诉我们的一切，”他说。“但我想他们可能会在另一个时间告诉我们一些不同的事情。”</blockquote>Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.<blockquote>胡表示，基金管理行业的整合加剧了未来的风险，更少的人控制更多的资金，获得相同的信息，做出相同的赌注——一家金融公司突破了10万亿美元的门槛。由于控制如此之少，“谁有足够的规模成为他们的交易对手并将他们排除在交易之外？”他写道。</blockquote>The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt &amp; Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.<blockquote>交易另一方缺乏足够规模的交易对手意味着平仓成本变得更高。“你可以执行，但如果你被迫出售，退出可能是一个痛苦的调整，”纽约债券承销商Roosevelt&amp;Cross的首席交易员约翰·法拉威尔(John Farawell)表示。</blockquote>Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”<blockquote>法拉威尔指出，周五的就业报告“震惊了所有人”，这是一个例子，说明群体很容易被证明是错误的。“现在的问题是，美联储是否会加息25或50个基点，当我看到每个人都以同样的方式看待时，痛苦的交易可能会发生。由于许多人认为曲线会变平，现在可能会变陡，这是下一个痛苦的交易。”</blockquote>The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">hedge funds</a> incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">need to short-cover</a>, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.<blockquote>去年年底，在一个受欢迎的赌注中站在错误一边的困难就凸显出来了，当时<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">对冲基金</a>因美国和世界各地利率方向的错误头寸而遭受重大损失。他们的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-pain-likely-for-hedge-funds-as-leveraged-investors-unwind-wrong-way-bond-market-bets-traders-say-11636491751?mod=article_inline\" target=\"_blank\">需要做空回补</a>或回购证券以平仓未平仓空头头寸，据说是导致11月初国债收益率下降的因素之一。</blockquote>An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.<blockquote>原油等其他市场可能会出现市场参与者缺失的情况，导致价格波动更大。石油价格信息服务全球能源分析主管汤姆·克洛扎表示，在疫情期间，原油市场失去了一些参与者，特别是那些曾经充当“断路器”的公司。因此，一些勘探和生产公司表示，他们不会在期货中对冲，“参与者的减少意味着更大的波动，”克洛扎说。</blockquote>Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.<blockquote>投资者现在将注意力转向下周四的消费者价格指数报告，交易员和经济学家预计该报告的总体同比涨幅约为7.2%。交易员还预计，2月份的数据将达到7.4%，3月份将达到7.2%，然后年度CPI将在年底开始逐渐降至3.3%。</blockquote>“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.<blockquote>费城格伦梅德投资管理公司(Glenmede Investment Management)固定收益总监罗布·戴利(Rob Daly)表示：“在通胀影响市场时，肯定有二元方式来看待通胀，但观点并没有像我希望的那样分散。”</blockquote>“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”<blockquote>他在电话中表示：“如果通胀放缓速度快于预期，利率迅速下降，10年期国债收益率回落至1.50%，这将伤害那些准备大幅加息的人。”“或者它可能来自通胀持续和风险的消除。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-pain-trade-could-be-on-the-horizon-as-investors-crowd-into-bets-pegged-to-fed-monetary-policy-11644009982?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2209466983","content_text":"Investors may be set up for the next so-called “pain” trade, with market participants increasingly coalescing around expectations that Federal Reserve needs to act aggressively to combat persistent U.S. inflation.As traders brace for a series of interest-rate increases this year, starting in March, many could be caught flat-footed in crowded bets that are designed to profit from anticipated monetary policy moves, should market-based expectations suddenly shift.Friday’s release of unexpectedly strong job gains for January is giving greater credence to a Fed rate increase next month that could be a bigger-than-usual 0.50 percentage point increase, while the likelihood that the central bank’s policy rate target could end the year between 1.75% and 2% also has risen, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.The trouble is that the COVID-19 pandemic has cleaved the range of possible U.S. economic outcomes into two directions, which can change on any given day: One favors higher policy and market rates, as the Fed and other central banks attempt to tackle persistent inflation. The other supports the view of lower rates, on the basis that economies are too fragile to handle much tightening and inflation should subsequently trail off.That leaves those positioned for higher U.S. policy rates exposed to potential losses if the market narrative suddenly flips.“The consensus views in this market scare me,” Gang Hu, a TIPS trader with New York hedge fund WinShore Capital Partners, wrote in a note released after Friday’s jobs report. “Reading through various research papers from the Street, I couldn’t find anyone disagree with each other. But if we all agree and put on the same positions, who’s going to take us out” of the trade?Friday’s robust nonfarm payroll report was met with rising Treasury yields, as the 10-year rate broke through 1.9%, stocks found their footing, and investors braced for a Fed that seems certain to move away from an easy-money stance, which has kept the fed funds pinned to current levels between 0% and 0.25%. Yet it was only a few months ago that some of the most sophisticated investors — hedge funds — were caught off guard by unexpected dovish pivots by the Fed and Bank of England, as well as a flattening of bond market yield curves.The unexpected nature of the pandemic has produced enough uncertainties to leave lingering doubts about the outlook, Hu told MarketWatch by phone — starting with the possibilities that a fresh wave of COVID-19 cases could re-emerge at any time and that growth might taper off, bringing inflation down with it. His views were backed by a Treasury yield curve, or spread between short-term yields and their longer term counterparts, that narrowed further on Friday, despite the surprisingly strong jobs report.“We are all following central banks and taking whatever they tell us at face value,” he says. “But I expect they could probably tell us something different at another time.”Exacerbating the risk ahead are the consolidations in the fund management industry, with fewer people controlling more money, getting all the same information, and making the same bets — with one financial firm crossing the $10 trillion threshold, according to Hu. With so few controlling so much, “who has the size to be their counterparty and take them out of the trade?” he wrote.The lack of adequately sized counterparties on the other side of a trade means unwinding that position becomes more costly. “You can execute, but if you are forced to sell, getting out can be a painful adjustment,” said head trader John Farawell with Roosevelt & Cross, a bond underwriter in New York.Farawell pointed to Friday’s jobs report, which “shocked everybody,” as an example of how easily the herd can turn out to be wrong. “Now the question is if the Fed is going to do a 25 or 50 basis point hike, and when I see everyone looking the same way, a pain trade may occur. With many positioned for a flattening of the curve, it now could be a steepening that’s the next pain trade.”The difficulty with being on the wrong side of a popular bet was highlighted late last year, when hedge funds incurred significant losses from wrong-way positions on the direction of interest rates in the U.S. and across the world. Their need to short-cover, or buy back securities to close out open short positions, was said to be one of the factors contributing to a decline in Treasury yields during early November.An absence of market players may be occurring in other markets, such as crude oil, resulting in bigger swings in prices. The crude-oil market has lost some players during the pandemic, particularly companies that once acted as “circuit breakers,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis for the Oil Price Information Service. So several exploration and production firms have said they won’t hedge in futures, and “fewer participants translate into more volatility,” Kloza said.Investors now turn their attention to next Thursday’s consumer-price index report, which traders and economists expect to come at around a 7.2% year-over-year headline gain. Traders also expect the February reading to hit 7.4% and March to hit 7.2% before annual CPI starts to taper off down to 3.3% at the end of the year.“There has definitely been binary ways to look at inflation as it affects the market, but there hasn’t been a dispersion of views as much as I would like,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income at Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia.“The next pain trade could come if inflation moderates more quickly than expected, and rates come off quickly, with the 10-year yield falling back down to 1.50% —hurting those that have been positioned for aggressive rate hikes,” he said via phone. “Or it could come from inflation staying durable and the unwinding of risk.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}