'Good luck! We'll all need it': U.S. market approaches end of 'superbubble,' says Jeremy Grantham_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

'Good luck! We'll all need it': U.S. market approaches end of 'superbubble,' says Jeremy Grantham

MarketWatch2022-01-21

'We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market,' says GMO co-founder Jeremy GranthamGMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham says the Fed doesn’t seem to “get” asset bubbles.The U.S. is ...

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MZ39
·2022-01-21
Yes the correction is here. We all need luck!
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We'll all need it': U.S. market approaches end of 'superbubble,' says Jeremy Grantham","media":"MarketWatch","content":"<div>\n'We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market,' says GMO co-founder Jeremy GranthamGMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham says the Fed doesn’t seem to “get” asset bubbles.The U.S. is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-luck-well-all-need-it-u-s-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble-says-jeremy-grantham-11642723516?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1603348471595","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Good luck! 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We'll all need it': U.S. market approaches end of 'superbubble,' says Jeremy Grantham\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-21 19:53 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-luck-well-all-need-it-u-s-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble-says-jeremy-grantham-11642723516?mod=home-page>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n'We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market,' says GMO co-founder Jeremy GranthamGMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham says the Fed doesn’t seem to “get” asset bubbles.The U.S. is ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-luck-well-all-need-it-u-s-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble-says-jeremy-grantham-11642723516?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-luck-well-all-need-it-u-s-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble-says-jeremy-grantham-11642723516?mod=home-page","article_id":"2205168440","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2205168440","pubTimestamp":1642765997,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"'We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market,' says GMO co-founder Jeremy Gran","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"‘祝你好运！“我们都需要它”：美国市场接近“超级泡沫”的终结，杰里米·格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）说","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.79,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"'We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market,' says GMO co-founder Jeremy GranthamGMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham says the Fed doesn’t seem to “get” asset bubbles.The U.S. is approaching the end of a \"superbubble\" spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID pandemic, potentially leading to the largest markdown of wealth in its history once pessimism returns to rule markets, according to legendary investor Jeremy Grantham.\"For the first time in the U.S. we have simultaneous bubbles across all major asset classes,\" said Grantham, co-founder of investment firm GMO, in a paper Thursday. He estimated wealth losses could total $35 trillion in the U.S. should valuations across major asset classes return two-thirds of the way to historical norms.\"One of the main reasons I deplore superbubbles -- and resent the Fed and other financial authorities for allowing and facilitating them -- is the underrecognized damage that bubbles cause as they deflate,\" said Grantham.The Federal Reserve doesn't seem to \"get\" asset bubbles, said Grantham, pointing to the \"ineffably massive stimulus for COVID\" (some of which he said was necessary) that followed stimulus to recover from the bust of the 2006 housing bubble. \"The only 'lesson' that the economic establishment appears to have learned from the rubble of 2009 is that we didn't address it with enough stimulus,\" he said.Equity bubbles tend to begin to deflate from the riskiest parts of the market first -- as the one that Grantham is warning about has been doing since February 2021, according to his paper. \"So, good luck!\" he wrote. \"We'll all need it.\"While the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average each notched all-time closing peaks in early January, they've since fallen into a slump, along with the Nasdaq Composite Index , as investors anticipate the Fed will end quantitative easing and begin raising interest rates to combat high inflation later this year.The technology-laden Nasdaq has seen the biggest decline among the three major stock benchmarks in 2022, tumbling into correction territory after reaching a record high in November, according to FactSet data.\"We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market, where you throw everything you have at it,\" Grantham wrote. \"You stab it with COVID, you shoot it with the end of QE and the promise of higher rates, and you poison it with unexpected inflation -- which has always killed P/E ratios before, but quite uniquely, not this time yet -- and still the creature flies.\"That is \"until, just as you're beginning to think the thing is completely immortal, it finally, and perhaps a little anticlimactically, keels over and dies,\" said Grantham. \"The sooner the better for everyone.\"The Nasdaq has dropped 9.5% this month, through Thursday, exceeding the S&P 500's nearly 6% slide and a 4.5% loss for the Dow, according to FactSet data.As for GMO's investment recommendations, Grantham summarized them as avoiding U.S. equities while emphasizing value stocks in emerging markets and cheaper developed countries, \"most notably Japan.\" On a personal note, he said, \"I also like some cash for flexibility, some resources for inflation protection, as well as a little gold and silver.\"Beyond the recent record highs of the U.S. stock market and \"crazy\" investor behavior that has accompanied its rise, Grantham warned that \"we are indeed participating in the broadest and most extreme global real-estate bubble in history.\" He said that houses in the U.S. are at \"the highest multiple of family income ever, after a record 20% gain last year.\"Plus, said Grantham, \"we also have the highest-priced bond markets in the U.S. and most other countries around the world, and the lowest rates, of course, that go with them, that human history has ever seen.\"And then there's the \"incipient bubble in commodities,\" he added. Oil and most of the \"important metals\" are among commodities priced broadly \"above trend,\" while the \"U.N.'s index of global food prices is around its all-time high,\" according to his paper.\"The combination, which we saw in 2008, of still-rising commodity prices with a deflating asset price bubble is the ultimate pincer attack on the economy and is all but guaranteed to lead to major economic pain,\" he wrote.Grantham also considered how wealth compounds more slowly at \"bubble pricing,\" while making it hard for people to afford their first house or to build an investment portfolio.\"There is the terrible increase in inequality that goes with higher prices of assets, which many simply do not own, and 'many' applies these days up to the median family or beyond,\" he wrote. \"They have been let down, know it, and increasingly (and understandably) resent it. And it absolutely hurts our economy.\"","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":630846636,"gmtCreate":1642780541626,"gmtModify":1642780542055,"author":{"id":"3572322201202012","authorId":"3572322201202012","name":"MZ39","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30eb7b5a7db02258a92e8e407af0f568","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572322201202012","authorIdStr":"3572322201202012"},"htmlText":"Yes the correction is here. We all need luck!","listText":"Yes the correction is here. We all need luck!","text":"Yes the correction is here. We all need luck!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630846636","repostId":2205168440,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2205168440","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1642765997,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2205168440?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-21 19:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Good luck! We'll all need it': U.S. market approaches end of 'superbubble,' says Jeremy Grantham<blockquote>“祝你好运！我们都需要它”：杰里米·格兰瑟姆表示，美国市场即将结束“超级泡沫”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2205168440","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market,' says GMO co-founder Jeremy Gran","content":"<html><head></head><body>&#39;We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market,&#39; says GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham<blockquote><html><head></head><body>GMO联合创始人杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，我认为我们正处于牛市的吸血鬼阶段</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7628bfef7b4955fa6be7198928ede3ba\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"742\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham says the Fed doesn’t seem to “get” asset bubbles.<blockquote>GMO联合创始人杰里米·格兰瑟姆表示，美联储似乎没有“意识到”资产泡沫。</blockquote>The U.S. is approaching the end of a &#34;superbubble&#34; spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID pandemic, potentially leading to the largest markdown of wealth in its history once pessimism returns to rule markets, according to legendary investor Jeremy Grantham.<blockquote>传奇投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，在新冠疫情期间采取大规模刺激措施后，美国股票、债券、房地产和大宗商品的“超级泡沫”即将结束。</blockquote>&#34;For the first time in the U.S. we have simultaneous bubbles across all major asset classes,&#34; said Grantham, co-founder of investment firm GMO, in a paper Thursday. He estimated wealth losses could total $35 trillion in the U.S. should valuations across major asset classes return two-thirds of the way to historical norms.<blockquote>投资公司GMO联合创始人格兰瑟姆周四在一篇论文中表示：“在美国，所有主要资产类别都首次同时出现泡沫。”他估计，如果主要资产类别的估值恢复到历史正常水平的三分之二，美国的财富损失总额可能达到35万亿美元。</blockquote>&#34;One of the main reasons I deplore superbubbles -- and resent the Fed and other financial authorities for allowing and facilitating them -- is the underrecognized damage that bubbles cause as they deflate,&#34; said Grantham.<blockquote>格兰瑟姆表示：“我对超级泡沫感到痛惜，并对美联储和其他金融当局允许和促进超级泡沫感到不满的主要原因之一是泡沫破裂时造成的损害没有得到充分认识。”</blockquote>The Federal Reserve doesn&#39;t seem to &#34;get&#34; asset bubbles, said Grantham, pointing to the &#34;ineffably massive stimulus for COVID&#34; (some of which he said was necessary) that followed stimulus to recover from the bust of the 2006 housing bubble. &#34;The only &#39;lesson&#39; that the economic establishment appears to have learned from the rubble of 2009 is that we didn&#39;t address it with enough stimulus,&#34; he said.<blockquote>格兰瑟姆表示，美联储似乎并没有“意识到”资产泡沫，他指出，在2006年房地产泡沫破灭后采取了“难以言喻的大规模刺激措施”（他说其中一些是必要的）。“经济机构似乎从2009年的废墟中吸取的唯一‘教训’是，我们没有采取足够的刺激措施来解决这个问题，”他说。</blockquote>Equity bubbles tend to begin to deflate from the riskiest parts of the market first -- as the one that Grantham is warning about has been doing since February 2021, according to his paper. &#34;So, good luck!&#34; he wrote. &#34;We&#39;ll all need it.&#34;<blockquote>根据格兰瑟姆的论文，股票泡沫往往首先从市场风险最高的部分开始破灭——正如格兰瑟姆自2021年2月以来所警告的那样。“那么，祝你好运！”他写道。“我们都需要它。”</blockquote>While the S&amp;P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average each notched all-time closing peaks in early January, they&#39;ve since fallen into a slump, along with the Nasdaq Composite Index , as investors anticipate the Fed will end quantitative easing and begin raising interest rates to combat high inflation later this year.<blockquote>尽管标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均在一月初创下历史收盘峰值，但此后它们与纳斯达克综合指数一起陷入暴跌，因为投资者预计美联储将结束量化宽松政策并开始加息今年晚些时候应对高通胀。</blockquote>The technology-laden Nasdaq has seen the biggest decline among the three major stock benchmarks in 2022, tumbling into correction territory after reaching a record high in November, according to FactSet data.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，科技含量高的纳斯达克在2022年三大股票基准中跌幅最大，在11月创下历史新高后跌入回调区间。</blockquote>&#34;We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market, where you throw everything you have at it,&#34; Grantham wrote. &#34;You stab it with COVID, you shoot it with the end of QE and the promise of higher rates, and you poison it with unexpected inflation -- which has always killed P/E ratios before, but quite uniquely, not this time yet -- and still the creature flies.&#34;<blockquote>格兰瑟姆写道：“我认为我们正处于牛市的吸血鬼阶段，你会全力以赴。”“你用新冠病毒刺伤它，用量化宽松的结束和更高利率的承诺射击它，然后用意想不到的通货膨胀毒害它——这种通货膨胀以前总是会扼杀市盈率，但非常独特的是，这次还没有——但这个生物仍然会飞。”</blockquote>That is &#34;until, just as you&#39;re beginning to think the thing is completely immortal, it finally, and perhaps a little anticlimactically, keels over and dies,&#34; said Grantham. &#34;The sooner the better for everyone.&#34;<blockquote>格兰瑟姆说，“直到，就在你开始认为这个东西是完全不朽的时候，它最终，也许有点虎头蛇尾，倒下死去”。“越快越好。”</blockquote>The Nasdaq has dropped 9.5% this month, through Thursday, exceeding the S&amp;P 500&#39;s nearly 6% slide and a 4.5% loss for the Dow, according to FactSet data.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，截至周四，纳斯达克本月已下跌9.5%，超过标普500近6%的跌幅和道琼斯指数4.5%的跌幅。</blockquote>As for GMO&#39;s investment recommendations, Grantham summarized them as avoiding U.S. equities while emphasizing value stocks in emerging markets and cheaper developed countries, &#34;most notably Japan.&#34; On a personal note, he said, &#34;I also like some cash for flexibility, some resources for inflation protection, as well as a little gold and silver.&#34;<blockquote>至于GMO的投资建议，格兰瑟姆总结为避开美国股票，同时强调新兴市场和更便宜的发达国家的价值股，“最明显的是日本”。就个人而言，他说：“我也喜欢一些现金来提高灵活性，一些资源来保护通胀，以及一点黄金和白银。”</blockquote>Beyond the recent record highs of the U.S. stock market and &#34;crazy&#34; investor behavior that has accompanied its rise, Grantham warned that &#34;we are indeed participating in the broadest and most extreme global real-estate bubble in history.&#34; He said that houses in the U.S. are at &#34;the highest multiple of family income ever, after a record 20% gain last year.&#34;<blockquote>除了美国股市近期创下历史新高以及伴随其上涨而来的“疯狂”投资者行为之外，格兰瑟姆警告称，“我们确实正在参与历史上最广泛、最极端的全球房地产泡沫。”他表示，美国的房屋“继去年创纪录的20%增长之后，家庭收入的倍数达到了有史以来的最高水平”。</blockquote>Plus, said Grantham, &#34;we also have the highest-priced bond markets in the U.S. and most other countries around the world, and the lowest rates, of course, that go with them, that human history has ever seen.&#34;<blockquote>此外，格兰瑟姆说，“我们还拥有美国和世界上大多数其他国家价格最高的债券市场，当然，随之而来的利率也是人类历史上有史以来最低的。”</blockquote>And then there&#39;s the &#34;incipient bubble in commodities,&#34; he added. Oil and most of the &#34;important metals&#34; are among commodities priced broadly &#34;above trend,&#34; while the &#34;U.N.&#39;s index of global food prices is around its all-time high,&#34; according to his paper.<blockquote>他补充说，还有“大宗商品泡沫的初期”。他的论文称，石油和大多数“重要金属”都是价格普遍“高于趋势”的大宗商品，而“联合国全球食品价格指数接近历史高点”。</blockquote>&#34;The combination, which we saw in 2008, of still-rising commodity prices with a deflating asset price bubble is the ultimate pincer attack on the economy and is all but guaranteed to lead to major economic pain,&#34; he wrote.<blockquote>他写道：“正如我们在2008年看到的那样，大宗商品价格仍在上涨，资产价格泡沫不断缩小，这是对经济的终极钳形攻击，几乎肯定会导致重大的经济痛苦。”</blockquote>Grantham also considered how wealth compounds more slowly at &#34;bubble pricing,&#34; while making it hard for people to afford their first house or to build an investment portfolio.<blockquote>格兰瑟姆还考虑了在“泡沫定价”下财富的复合速度如何变慢，同时使人们难以买得起第一套房子或建立投资组合。</blockquote>&#34;There is the terrible increase in inequality that goes with higher prices of assets, which many simply do not own, and &#39;many&#39; applies these days up to the median family or beyond,&#34; he wrote. &#34;They have been let down, know it, and increasingly (and understandably) resent it. And it absolutely hurts our economy.&#34;<blockquote>他写道：“随着资产价格的上涨，不平等现象严重加剧，而许多人根本不拥有这些资产，而‘许多’如今适用于中位数或更高的家庭。”“他们很失望，知道这一点，并且越来越（可以理解）对此感到不满。这绝对损害了我们的经济。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Good luck! We'll all need it': U.S. market approaches end of 'superbubble,' says Jeremy Grantham<blockquote>“祝你好运！我们都需要它”：杰里米·格兰瑟姆表示，美国市场即将结束“超级泡沫”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Good luck! We'll all need it': U.S. market approaches end of 'superbubble,' says Jeremy Grantham<blockquote>“祝你好运！我们都需要它”：杰里米·格兰瑟姆表示，美国市场即将结束“超级泡沫”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2022-01-21 19:53\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>&#39;We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market,&#39; says GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham<blockquote><html><head></head><body>GMO联合创始人杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，我认为我们正处于牛市的吸血鬼阶段</body></html></blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7628bfef7b4955fa6be7198928ede3ba\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"742\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham says the Fed doesn’t seem to “get” asset bubbles.<blockquote>GMO联合创始人杰里米·格兰瑟姆表示，美联储似乎没有“意识到”资产泡沫。</blockquote>The U.S. is approaching the end of a &#34;superbubble&#34; spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID pandemic, potentially leading to the largest markdown of wealth in its history once pessimism returns to rule markets, according to legendary investor Jeremy Grantham.<blockquote>传奇投资者杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)表示，在新冠疫情期间采取大规模刺激措施后，美国股票、债券、房地产和大宗商品的“超级泡沫”即将结束。</blockquote>&#34;For the first time in the U.S. we have simultaneous bubbles across all major asset classes,&#34; said Grantham, co-founder of investment firm GMO, in a paper Thursday. He estimated wealth losses could total $35 trillion in the U.S. should valuations across major asset classes return two-thirds of the way to historical norms.<blockquote>投资公司GMO联合创始人格兰瑟姆周四在一篇论文中表示：“在美国，所有主要资产类别都首次同时出现泡沫。”他估计，如果主要资产类别的估值恢复到历史正常水平的三分之二，美国的财富损失总额可能达到35万亿美元。</blockquote>&#34;One of the main reasons I deplore superbubbles -- and resent the Fed and other financial authorities for allowing and facilitating them -- is the underrecognized damage that bubbles cause as they deflate,&#34; said Grantham.<blockquote>格兰瑟姆表示：“我对超级泡沫感到痛惜，并对美联储和其他金融当局允许和促进超级泡沫感到不满的主要原因之一是泡沫破裂时造成的损害没有得到充分认识。”</blockquote>The Federal Reserve doesn&#39;t seem to &#34;get&#34; asset bubbles, said Grantham, pointing to the &#34;ineffably massive stimulus for COVID&#34; (some of which he said was necessary) that followed stimulus to recover from the bust of the 2006 housing bubble. &#34;The only &#39;lesson&#39; that the economic establishment appears to have learned from the rubble of 2009 is that we didn&#39;t address it with enough stimulus,&#34; he said.<blockquote>格兰瑟姆表示，美联储似乎并没有“意识到”资产泡沫，他指出，在2006年房地产泡沫破灭后采取了“难以言喻的大规模刺激措施”（他说其中一些是必要的）。“经济机构似乎从2009年的废墟中吸取的唯一‘教训’是，我们没有采取足够的刺激措施来解决这个问题，”他说。</blockquote>Equity bubbles tend to begin to deflate from the riskiest parts of the market first -- as the one that Grantham is warning about has been doing since February 2021, according to his paper. &#34;So, good luck!&#34; he wrote. &#34;We&#39;ll all need it.&#34;<blockquote>根据格兰瑟姆的论文，股票泡沫往往首先从市场风险最高的部分开始破灭——正如格兰瑟姆自2021年2月以来所警告的那样。“那么，祝你好运！”他写道。“我们都需要它。”</blockquote>While the S&amp;P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average each notched all-time closing peaks in early January, they&#39;ve since fallen into a slump, along with the Nasdaq Composite Index , as investors anticipate the Fed will end quantitative easing and begin raising interest rates to combat high inflation later this year.<blockquote>尽管标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数均在一月初创下历史收盘峰值，但此后它们与纳斯达克综合指数一起陷入暴跌，因为投资者预计美联储将结束量化宽松政策并开始加息今年晚些时候应对高通胀。</blockquote>The technology-laden Nasdaq has seen the biggest decline among the three major stock benchmarks in 2022, tumbling into correction territory after reaching a record high in November, according to FactSet data.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，科技含量高的纳斯达克在2022年三大股票基准中跌幅最大，在11月创下历史新高后跌入回调区间。</blockquote>&#34;We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market, where you throw everything you have at it,&#34; Grantham wrote. &#34;You stab it with COVID, you shoot it with the end of QE and the promise of higher rates, and you poison it with unexpected inflation -- which has always killed P/E ratios before, but quite uniquely, not this time yet -- and still the creature flies.&#34;<blockquote>格兰瑟姆写道：“我认为我们正处于牛市的吸血鬼阶段，你会全力以赴。”“你用新冠病毒刺伤它，用量化宽松的结束和更高利率的承诺射击它，然后用意想不到的通货膨胀毒害它——这种通货膨胀以前总是会扼杀市盈率，但非常独特的是，这次还没有——但这个生物仍然会飞。”</blockquote>That is &#34;until, just as you&#39;re beginning to think the thing is completely immortal, it finally, and perhaps a little anticlimactically, keels over and dies,&#34; said Grantham. &#34;The sooner the better for everyone.&#34;<blockquote>格兰瑟姆说，“直到，就在你开始认为这个东西是完全不朽的时候，它最终，也许有点虎头蛇尾，倒下死去”。“越快越好。”</blockquote>The Nasdaq has dropped 9.5% this month, through Thursday, exceeding the S&amp;P 500&#39;s nearly 6% slide and a 4.5% loss for the Dow, according to FactSet data.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，截至周四，纳斯达克本月已下跌9.5%，超过标普500近6%的跌幅和道琼斯指数4.5%的跌幅。</blockquote>As for GMO&#39;s investment recommendations, Grantham summarized them as avoiding U.S. equities while emphasizing value stocks in emerging markets and cheaper developed countries, &#34;most notably Japan.&#34; On a personal note, he said, &#34;I also like some cash for flexibility, some resources for inflation protection, as well as a little gold and silver.&#34;<blockquote>至于GMO的投资建议，格兰瑟姆总结为避开美国股票，同时强调新兴市场和更便宜的发达国家的价值股，“最明显的是日本”。就个人而言，他说：“我也喜欢一些现金来提高灵活性，一些资源来保护通胀，以及一点黄金和白银。”</blockquote>Beyond the recent record highs of the U.S. stock market and &#34;crazy&#34; investor behavior that has accompanied its rise, Grantham warned that &#34;we are indeed participating in the broadest and most extreme global real-estate bubble in history.&#34; He said that houses in the U.S. are at &#34;the highest multiple of family income ever, after a record 20% gain last year.&#34;<blockquote>除了美国股市近期创下历史新高以及伴随其上涨而来的“疯狂”投资者行为之外，格兰瑟姆警告称，“我们确实正在参与历史上最广泛、最极端的全球房地产泡沫。”他表示，美国的房屋“继去年创纪录的20%增长之后，家庭收入的倍数达到了有史以来的最高水平”。</blockquote>Plus, said Grantham, &#34;we also have the highest-priced bond markets in the U.S. and most other countries around the world, and the lowest rates, of course, that go with them, that human history has ever seen.&#34;<blockquote>此外，格兰瑟姆说，“我们还拥有美国和世界上大多数其他国家价格最高的债券市场，当然，随之而来的利率也是人类历史上有史以来最低的。”</blockquote>And then there&#39;s the &#34;incipient bubble in commodities,&#34; he added. Oil and most of the &#34;important metals&#34; are among commodities priced broadly &#34;above trend,&#34; while the &#34;U.N.&#39;s index of global food prices is around its all-time high,&#34; according to his paper.<blockquote>他补充说，还有“大宗商品泡沫的初期”。他的论文称，石油和大多数“重要金属”都是价格普遍“高于趋势”的大宗商品，而“联合国全球食品价格指数接近历史高点”。</blockquote>&#34;The combination, which we saw in 2008, of still-rising commodity prices with a deflating asset price bubble is the ultimate pincer attack on the economy and is all but guaranteed to lead to major economic pain,&#34; he wrote.<blockquote>他写道：“正如我们在2008年看到的那样，大宗商品价格仍在上涨，资产价格泡沫不断缩小，这是对经济的终极钳形攻击，几乎肯定会导致重大的经济痛苦。”</blockquote>Grantham also considered how wealth compounds more slowly at &#34;bubble pricing,&#34; while making it hard for people to afford their first house or to build an investment portfolio.<blockquote>格兰瑟姆还考虑了在“泡沫定价”下财富的复合速度如何变慢，同时使人们难以买得起第一套房子或建立投资组合。</blockquote>&#34;There is the terrible increase in inequality that goes with higher prices of assets, which many simply do not own, and &#39;many&#39; applies these days up to the median family or beyond,&#34; he wrote. &#34;They have been let down, know it, and increasingly (and understandably) resent it. And it absolutely hurts our economy.&#34;<blockquote>他写道：“随着资产价格的上涨，不平等现象严重加剧，而许多人根本不拥有这些资产，而‘许多’如今适用于中位数或更高的家庭。”“他们很失望，知道这一点，并且越来越（可以理解）对此感到不满。这绝对损害了我们的经济。”</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-luck-well-all-need-it-u-s-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble-says-jeremy-grantham-11642723516?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/good-luck-well-all-need-it-u-s-market-approaches-end-of-superbubble-says-jeremy-grantham-11642723516?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2205168440","content_text":"'We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market,' says GMO co-founder Jeremy GranthamGMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham says the Fed doesn’t seem to “get” asset bubbles.The U.S. is approaching the end of a \"superbubble\" spanning across stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities following massive stimulus during the COVID pandemic, potentially leading to the largest markdown of wealth in its history once pessimism returns to rule markets, according to legendary investor Jeremy Grantham.\"For the first time in the U.S. we have simultaneous bubbles across all major asset classes,\" said Grantham, co-founder of investment firm GMO, in a paper Thursday. He estimated wealth losses could total $35 trillion in the U.S. should valuations across major asset classes return two-thirds of the way to historical norms.\"One of the main reasons I deplore superbubbles -- and resent the Fed and other financial authorities for allowing and facilitating them -- is the underrecognized damage that bubbles cause as they deflate,\" said Grantham.The Federal Reserve doesn't seem to \"get\" asset bubbles, said Grantham, pointing to the \"ineffably massive stimulus for COVID\" (some of which he said was necessary) that followed stimulus to recover from the bust of the 2006 housing bubble. \"The only 'lesson' that the economic establishment appears to have learned from the rubble of 2009 is that we didn't address it with enough stimulus,\" he said.Equity bubbles tend to begin to deflate from the riskiest parts of the market first -- as the one that Grantham is warning about has been doing since February 2021, according to his paper. \"So, good luck!\" he wrote. \"We'll all need it.\"While the S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average each notched all-time closing peaks in early January, they've since fallen into a slump, along with the Nasdaq Composite Index , as investors anticipate the Fed will end quantitative easing and begin raising interest rates to combat high inflation later this year.The technology-laden Nasdaq has seen the biggest decline among the three major stock benchmarks in 2022, tumbling into correction territory after reaching a record high in November, according to FactSet data.\"We are in what I think of as the vampire phase of the bull market, where you throw everything you have at it,\" Grantham wrote. \"You stab it with COVID, you shoot it with the end of QE and the promise of higher rates, and you poison it with unexpected inflation -- which has always killed P/E ratios before, but quite uniquely, not this time yet -- and still the creature flies.\"That is \"until, just as you're beginning to think the thing is completely immortal, it finally, and perhaps a little anticlimactically, keels over and dies,\" said Grantham. \"The sooner the better for everyone.\"The Nasdaq has dropped 9.5% this month, through Thursday, exceeding the S&P 500's nearly 6% slide and a 4.5% loss for the Dow, according to FactSet data.As for GMO's investment recommendations, Grantham summarized them as avoiding U.S. equities while emphasizing value stocks in emerging markets and cheaper developed countries, \"most notably Japan.\" On a personal note, he said, \"I also like some cash for flexibility, some resources for inflation protection, as well as a little gold and silver.\"Beyond the recent record highs of the U.S. stock market and \"crazy\" investor behavior that has accompanied its rise, Grantham warned that \"we are indeed participating in the broadest and most extreme global real-estate bubble in history.\" He said that houses in the U.S. are at \"the highest multiple of family income ever, after a record 20% gain last year.\"Plus, said Grantham, \"we also have the highest-priced bond markets in the U.S. and most other countries around the world, and the lowest rates, of course, that go with them, that human history has ever seen.\"And then there's the \"incipient bubble in commodities,\" he added. Oil and most of the \"important metals\" are among commodities priced broadly \"above trend,\" while the \"U.N.'s index of global food prices is around its all-time high,\" according to his paper.\"The combination, which we saw in 2008, of still-rising commodity prices with a deflating asset price bubble is the ultimate pincer attack on the economy and is all but guaranteed to lead to major economic pain,\" he wrote.Grantham also considered how wealth compounds more slowly at \"bubble pricing,\" while making it hard for people to afford their first house or to build an investment portfolio.\"There is the terrible increase in inequality that goes with higher prices of assets, which many simply do not own, and 'many' applies these days up to the median family or beyond,\" he wrote. \"They have been let down, know it, and increasingly (and understandably) resent it. And it absolutely hurts our economy.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.79,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":3,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}