'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022

MarketWatch2021-12-09

'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett ‘Marginally ...

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233

hoho03
·2021-12-10
yay
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2
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BKT
·2021-12-09
Great
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2
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MHh
·2021-12-09
Crystal ball time[Cool]
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5
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Jypsy
·2021-12-09
👍
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3
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Universe宇宙
·2021-12-09
'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022
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6
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- Universe宇宙:
  by end of this week, going to break new heights! huat la! [Miser] [Miser]
  2021-12-09
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- Universe宇宙:
  proceed with caution, nope! should be 'Just Buy it' Huat La! [Miser]
  2021-12-09
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- Universe宇宙:
  covid vaccine stocks is also going higher as the vaccine did not remove the virus from this planet. [Facepalm]
  2021-12-09
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查看更多 2 条评论
thesushimao
·2021-12-09
Wow pls like
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3
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AndrewL
·2021-12-09
Ok
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4
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- Lena03:
  pls like
  2021-12-10
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thesushimao
·2021-12-09
Wow pls like
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3
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收起
- JeremyKok:
  hi. please like and comment back. thank you.
  2021-12-10
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SK19
·2021-12-09
💪💪💪
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2
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RetroFreedom
·2021-12-09
Inflation is a big problem. More people will look foralternatives to earn income. Hello, stock market.
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5
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Frosty4ever
·2021-12-09
Basically nobody has any clear visibility for next year,?
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3
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TK360
·2021-12-09
Nice
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2
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Galaxy88
·2021-12-09
👌
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3
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收起
- Lena03:
  🥰🥰🥰
  2021-12-11
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TAN PS
·2021-12-09
😲😲😲
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2
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7united
·2021-12-09
👍🏽
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2
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Cockatoo
·2021-12-09
🙈
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2
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traveleat123
·2021-12-09
Hope things will improve in 2022 (after 2019 and 2020 which are not so good years with the pandemic)
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6
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- Cockatoo:
  👍
  2021-12-09
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WCN
·2021-12-09
Forsee more frequent but narrower dips followed by steady rebounds next year.
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3
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- Galaxy88:
  👌
  2021-12-09
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daz8888
·2021-12-09
Arrhggg
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2
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Chrisboon
·2021-12-09
Ok
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3
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- YS6911:
  High risk high gain
  2021-12-10
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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":605001301,"gmtCreate":1639089516146,"gmtModify":1639089516146,"author":{"id":"3581506227445473","authorId":"3581506227445473","name":"hoho03","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fbf452e4594737535354415a28bd52a","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581506227445473","idStr":"3581506227445473"},"htmlText":"yay","listText":"yay","text":"yay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605001301","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-12-09 16:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602797601,"gmtCreate":1639063968723,"gmtModify":1639064825472,"author":{"id":"3570853427202414","authorId":"3570853427202414","name":"BKT","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570853427202414","idStr":"3570853427202414"},"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602797601","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602416567,"gmtCreate":1639056371564,"gmtModify":1639056932728,"author":{"id":"4091758936365950","authorId":"4091758936365950","name":"MHh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54b2feced9ef5dcc9e95997d1f4db280","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4091758936365950","idStr":"4091758936365950"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;Crystal ball time[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Crystal ball time[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Crystal ball time[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602416567","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602436282,"gmtCreate":1639054849872,"gmtModify":1639054850153,"author":{"id":"3567239827558758","authorId":"3567239827558758","name":"Jypsy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66e331c670eb88443b88c6bdb76224cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3567239827558758","idStr":"3567239827558758"},"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602436282","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602497887,"gmtCreate":1639053868110,"gmtModify":1639054154784,"author":{"id":"3585001294737518","authorId":"3585001294737518","name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3585001294737518","idStr":"3585001294737518"},"htmlText":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022","listText":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022","text":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602497887","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6913879,"gmtCreate":1639054389362,"gmtModify":1639054389387,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602497887,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"by end of this week, going to break new heights! huat la! [Miser] [Miser]","text":"by end of this week, going to break new heights! huat la! [Miser] [Miser]","html":"by end of this week, going to break new heights! huat la! [Miser] [Miser]"},{"id":6913865,"gmtCreate":1639054240218,"gmtModify":1639054240315,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602497887,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"proceed with caution, nope! should be 'Just Buy it' Huat La! [Miser]","text":"proceed with caution, nope! should be 'Just Buy it' Huat La! [Miser]","html":"proceed with caution, nope! should be 'Just Buy it' Huat La! [Miser]"},{"id":6913815,"gmtCreate":1639054020036,"gmtModify":1639054215525,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602497887,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"covid vaccine stocks is also going higher as the vaccine did not remove the virus from this planet. [Facepalm]","text":"covid vaccine stocks is also going higher as the vaccine did not remove the virus from this planet. [Facepalm]","html":"covid vaccine stocks is also going higher as the vaccine did not remove the virus from this planet. 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[Miser]"},{"id":6913836,"gmtCreate":1639054115921,"gmtModify":1639054115949,"authorId":3585001294737518,"author":{"id":3585001294737518,"idStr":"3585001294737518","authorId":3585001294737518,"name":"Universe宇宙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602497887,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"buy more stocks to huat big big","text":"buy more stocks to huat big big","html":"buy more stocks to huat big big"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602496923,"gmtCreate":1639053222386,"gmtModify":1639053817232,"author":{"id":"3558500464606684","authorId":"3558500464606684","name":"thesushimao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53952a1b873d03c715d3711a2395a297","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3558500464606684","idStr":"3558500464606684"},"htmlText":"Wow pls like","listText":"Wow pls like","text":"Wow pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602496923","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602496065,"gmtCreate":1639053217784,"gmtModify":1639053816818,"author":{"id":"3571815908504020","authorId":"3571815908504020","name":"AndrewL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f45655eaaab14f0b61c554eea4d95ca7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571815908504020","idStr":"3571815908504020"},"htmlText":"Ok&nbsp;","listText":"Ok&nbsp;","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602496065","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6924395,"gmtCreate":1639115438292,"gmtModify":1639115438397,"authorId":4101369401329210,"author":{"id":4101369401329210,"idStr":"4101369401329210","authorId":4101369401329210,"name":"Lena03","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602496065,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"pls like","text":"pls like","html":"pls like"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602498756,"gmtCreate":1639053216402,"gmtModify":1639053815259,"author":{"id":"3558500464606684","authorId":"3558500464606684","name":"thesushimao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53952a1b873d03c715d3711a2395a297","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3558500464606684","idStr":"3558500464606684"},"htmlText":"Wow pls like","listText":"Wow pls like","text":"Wow pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602498756","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6920383,"gmtCreate":1639097046060,"gmtModify":1639097046147,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"idStr":"3567307840510045","authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602498756,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you."}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602493232,"gmtCreate":1639053017435,"gmtModify":1639053018179,"author":{"id":"3577755293052640","authorId":"3577755293052640","name":"SK19","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee6b25332525b16399562f21677fa1cd","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577755293052640","idStr":"3577755293052640"},"htmlText":"💪💪💪","listText":"💪💪💪","text":"💪💪💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602493232","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602490763,"gmtCreate":1639052764107,"gmtModify":1639052764429,"author":{"id":"3577319149726586","authorId":"3577319149726586","name":"RetroFreedom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b00161f79e3ca894c5687f5f4139635","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577319149726586","idStr":"3577319149726586"},"htmlText":"Inflation is a big problem. More people will look foralternatives to earn income. Hello, stock market.","listText":"Inflation is a big problem. More people will look foralternatives to earn income. Hello, stock market.","text":"Inflation is a big problem. More people will look foralternatives to earn income. Hello, stock market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602490763","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602490288,"gmtCreate":1639052716779,"gmtModify":1639052716779,"author":{"id":"3583106134648492","authorId":"3583106134648492","name":"Frosty4ever","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3583106134648492","idStr":"3583106134648492"},"htmlText":"Basically nobody has any clear visibility for&nbsp;next year,?","listText":"Basically nobody has any clear visibility for&nbsp;next year,?","text":"Basically nobody has any clear visibility for next year,?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602490288","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602490150,"gmtCreate":1639052629608,"gmtModify":1639052629942,"author":{"id":"3574766349354741","authorId":"3574766349354741","name":"TK360","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574766349354741","idStr":"3574766349354741"},"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602490150","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602405248,"gmtCreate":1639051970972,"gmtModify":1639051971411,"author":{"id":"4091842669394280","authorId":"4091842669394280","name":"Galaxy88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4091842669394280","idStr":"4091842669394280"},"htmlText":"👌&nbsp;","listText":"👌&nbsp;","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602405248","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6938801,"gmtCreate":1639203846971,"gmtModify":1639203847003,"authorId":4101369401329210,"author":{"id":4101369401329210,"idStr":"4101369401329210","authorId":4101369401329210,"name":"Lena03","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602405248,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"🥰🥰🥰","text":"🥰🥰🥰","html":"🥰🥰🥰"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602401104,"gmtCreate":1639051088022,"gmtModify":1639051227812,"author":{"id":"3582126034262927","authorId":"3582126034262927","name":"TAN PS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a0d84dc68e395bfc24b888753e86fdb","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582126034262927","idStr":"3582126034262927"},"htmlText":"😲😲😲","listText":"😲😲😲","text":"😲😲😲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602401104","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602577458,"gmtCreate":1639050402313,"gmtModify":1639050987934,"author":{"id":"4101867685462840","authorId":"4101867685462840","name":"7united","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58862424d0a0bd2f497e595d175522e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4101867685462840","idStr":"4101867685462840"},"htmlText":"👍🏽","listText":"👍🏽","text":"👍🏽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602577458","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602574065,"gmtCreate":1639050195144,"gmtModify":1639050791836,"author":{"id":"4095668241594670","authorId":"4095668241594670","name":"Cockatoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0055bde0938dcc9ff3f3925ff22ea2c7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4095668241594670","idStr":"4095668241594670"},"htmlText":"🙈","listText":"🙈","text":"🙈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602574065","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602573280,"gmtCreate":1639048929409,"gmtModify":1639049358842,"author":{"id":"4098682592538030","authorId":"4098682592538030","name":"traveleat123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b256e8e80bca8c1b6944e22d375ee0b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4098682592538030","idStr":"4098682592538030"},"htmlText":"Hope things will improve in 2022 (after 2019 and 2020 which are not so good years with the pandemic)","listText":"Hope things will improve in 2022 (after 2019 and 2020 which are not so good years with the pandemic)","text":"Hope things will improve in 2022 (after 2019 and 2020 which are not so good years with the pandemic)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602573280","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6913257,"gmtCreate":1639050183604,"gmtModify":1639050183638,"authorId":4095668241594670,"author":{"id":4095668241594670,"idStr":"4095668241594670","authorId":4095668241594670,"name":"Cockatoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0055bde0938dcc9ff3f3925ff22ea2c7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602573280,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602570207,"gmtCreate":1639048576442,"gmtModify":1639049546720,"author":{"id":"4100265120033250","authorId":"4100265120033250","name":"WCN","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a60dbe5ba6d9edf9d4cf42c8c9e2eea1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4100265120033250","idStr":"4100265120033250"},"htmlText":"Forsee more frequent but narrower dips followed by steady rebounds next year.&nbsp;","listText":"Forsee more frequent but narrower dips followed by steady rebounds next year.&nbsp;","text":"Forsee more frequent but narrower dips followed by steady rebounds next year.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602570207","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6913537,"gmtCreate":1639051992865,"gmtModify":1639051992899,"authorId":4091842669394280,"author":{"id":4091842669394280,"idStr":"4091842669394280","authorId":4091842669394280,"name":"Galaxy88","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602570207,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👌 ","text":"👌 ","html":"👌 "}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602545780,"gmtCreate":1639048087831,"gmtModify":1639048088299,"author":{"id":"4088639346266630","authorId":"4088639346266630","name":"daz8888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e930fceaf85e47a647554204cb1ec8cc","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4088639346266630","idStr":"4088639346266630"},"htmlText":"Arrhggg","listText":"Arrhggg","text":"Arrhggg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602545780","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-12-09 16:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602545480,"gmtCreate":1639048086511,"gmtModify":1639048086891,"author":{"id":"3572328638468429","authorId":"3572328638468429","name":"Chrisboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9581aab52b22d38a7ada3951c7ce5779","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3572328638468429","idStr":"3572328638468429"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602545480","repostId":2190503698,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2190503698","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1639038865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190503698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-09 16:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190503698","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve an","content":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Proceed with caution': here's what Wall Street analysts see for the U.S. stock market in 2022<blockquote>“谨慎行事”：华尔街分析师对2022年美国股市的看法</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-12-09 16:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">Morgan Stanley</a>'s Lisa Shalett<blockquote>“2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化，”他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSTLW\">摩根士丹利</a>丽莎·沙莱特</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71e96005daaaf18cef4eb11fc31ef1c7\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say<blockquote>摩根大通策略师表示，“略微收紧的货币政策”应该会成为2022年市场的阻力</blockquote> The recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.<blockquote>随着投资者开始应对疫情下货币政策的拐点，近期市场波动性飙升可能预示着2022年美国股市将更加坎坷。</blockquote> \"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.<blockquote>花旗集团美国消费者财富管理部门投资策略主管肖恩·斯奈德(Shawn Snyder)在接受电话采访时表示：“美联储可能收紧政策，波动性可能会加剧。”他在谈到冠状病毒的新变种时表示，“奥密克戎给2022年的前景带来了一些麻烦”，尽管投资者似乎对一些早期迹象感到鼓舞，这些迹象表明它可能没有最初担心的那么危险。</blockquote> The CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.<blockquote>FactSet数据显示，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在11月底跃升，即使自上周以来有所回落，仍高于200日移动均线。数据显示，VIX上周自2021年第一季度以来首次突破30，原因是市场对奥密克戎的出现以及美联储可能以比投资者更快的速度从市场上取消部分宽松政策感到不安。预期。</blockquote> \"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司经济学家兼投资组合策略总监劳伦·古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“这是一个重大转变，给投资者带来了紧张局势。”她表示，美联储看起来将为明年的潜在加息提供更大的灵活性，通胀压力的增加可能意味着2022年的加息幅度将超过目前的预期，从而产生更多的市场风险。</blockquote> Some investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&amp;P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.<blockquote>一些投资者担心，如果美联储通过加息大幅收紧货币政策，对利率敏感的成长股和科技股将特别脆弱。FactSet的数据显示，在2021年截至周二上涨近25%后，标普500指数有望连续第三年强劲上涨。</blockquote> The U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)首席全球投资策略师杰弗里·克莱因托普(Jeffrey Kleintop)在电话中对MarketWatch表示，明年美国股市可能会出现更温和的涨幅，“伴随着更高的波动性”。</blockquote> Goodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.<blockquote>古德温表示，她还预计波动性会增加，包括在COVID-19危机期间为消费者提供直接支持的财政刺激措施的消退以及美联储在经济复苏中“放松油门”。她预计明年股市回报率将比2021年迄今为止的涨幅“低得多”。</blockquote> \"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通策略师周三在2022年展望报告中表示，“从现在到2022年上半年，股市的大部分上涨应该会实现，届时货币和财政政策的推动力将最强劲”。</blockquote> Wall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&amp;P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.<blockquote>华尔街银行纷纷推出2022年标普500预测，高盛集团和摩根大通是最看好美股的银行之一。</blockquote> Goldman expects the S&amp;P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&amp;P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.<blockquote>根据高盛12月3日的投资组合策略研究报告，高盛预计2022年底标普500将达到5,100点。与此同时，摩根大通分析师在11月底的一份研究报告中预测，美股基准指数明年将升至5050点，部分原因是“强劲的盈利增长”和缓解供应链困境。根据德意志银行首席投资办公室的幻灯片演示，加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)预测的目标价与摩根大通(JPMorgan)相同，而德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预测明年标普500将收于5,000点。</blockquote> Meanwhile, Citigroup set an S&amp;P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.<blockquote>与此同时，花旗集团10月底的一份研究报告显示，该银行将2022年底的标普500目标定为4,900人。巴克莱在本月的一份美国股票策略报告中预测，该指数明年将收于4,800点，低于该水平。</blockquote> \"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend&nbsp;are key tail risks.\"<blockquote>巴克莱分析师在12月2日的2022年展望报告中写道：“谨慎行事。”“我们认为明年股市的上涨空间有限，”他们表示。他们认为，“家庭和企业的现金储备应该支持温和的盈利增长，但持续的供应链困境、商品消费趋势逆转是关键的尾部风险。”</blockquote> Bank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&amp;P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.<blockquote>美国银行分析师对标普500明年的目标价低于巴克莱，美国银行上个月的全球研究报告显示，该基准将于2022年底为4,600点。</blockquote> \"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.<blockquote>美国银行股票和量化策略主管萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)在11月底关于美国股市前景的媒体吹风会上表示：“不幸的是，我们看到今天与2000年（科技泡沫顶峰）有很多相似之处。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&amp;P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&amp;P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.<blockquote>摩根士丹利对明年的前景更加悲观，导致标普500低于该指数周二收盘价4,686.75点。该银行财富管理部门周一发布的一份报告显示，即使盈利预期增长，2022年底标普500的基本预测仍为4,400。</blockquote> \"We expect the S&amp;P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"<blockquote>Morgan Stanley Wealth Management首席投资官Lisa Shalett在报告中表示：“我们预计标普500将区间震荡，扣除通胀因素后，债券回报率将为负。”“应该减少固定收益，为更多地投资实物资产和绝对回报基金提供资金。”</blockquote> The core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&amp;P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，大摩对标普500“谨慎”观点的核心是基于市盈率通常在“周期中期过渡”期间压缩。她在报告中指出了一张图表，显示“股票中位数已经经历了周期中期的转变。”</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641e64a82babbbd377cb43247c437118\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理报告日期为12月。6, 2021</blockquote> The chart shows \"the median S&amp;P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.<blockquote>她的报告显示，“标普500股价中位数已从52周高点修正了15%”，但根据她的报告，该指数一直被目前占其市值40%的15家最大公司所保持高位。</blockquote> \"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示：“虽然它们可能是伟大的公司，但随着金融状况收紧、利率上升、就业成本增加以及通胀仍然具有挑战性，我们不太相信它们在2022年都会成为伟大的股票。”“我们认为前15名的利润率已经见顶。”</blockquote> In Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.<blockquote>摩根士丹利认为，“这表明投资者应该转向选股，远离被动指数基金，”她的报告显示。</blockquote> JPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通周三的报告称，预计“国际股市、新兴市场和周期性市场领域将大幅跑赢大盘”。</blockquote> \"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .<blockquote>摩根大通策略师援引科技股丰富的纳斯达克综合指数写道：“造成这种情况的原因是我们对加息和小幅收紧货币政策的预期，这对纳斯达克等高市盈率市场来说应该是一个阻力。”</blockquote> Citi's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.<blockquote>花旗的斯奈德告诉MarketWatch，在“中期”，他喜欢优质股票、“股息增长股”和全球医疗保健股票。他表示，持续的盈利增长和“合理的估值”使医疗保健具有吸引力，该领域的股票押注可以作为投资组合中的“波动抑制器”。</blockquote> Immunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF&nbsp;were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.<blockquote>美国iShares megatrend和国际ETF主管杰夫·斯皮格尔(Jeff Spiegel)表示，随着“一系列下一代肿瘤疗法即将获得批准，并实现更有针对性的癌症治疗”，免疫学是明年有望加速的三大趋势之一。FactSet数据显示，根据周三午盘交易，iShares Genomics免疫学和医疗保健ETF的股价今年上涨了约0.2%。</blockquote> Two other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.<blockquote>明镜周刊在本月的一份报告中写道，2022年另外两个值得关注的大趋势是通过云、5G和网络安全加剧的“数字化转型”，以及机器人和人工智能等“自动化技术”。他写道，自动化技术应该在大流行期间“应对持续的供应链瓶颈和工资上涨”。</blockquote> \"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"<blockquote>嘉信理财(Charles Schwab)的克莱因托普(Kleintop)表示：“我认为明年我们实际上将面临供过于求的问题，而不是短缺。”“这将有助于压低通胀，特别是在明年下半年，不太可能采取激进的加息路径。”</blockquote> The market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.<blockquote>德意志银行美洲首席信息官迪帕克·普里(Deepak Puri)在一次媒体吹风会上表示，在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)上周暗示可能会加快缩减每月资产购买规模后，市场预计美联储将在2022年加息三次。周一介绍了他对明年的展望。</blockquote> While the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.<blockquote>普里表示，尽管美联储可能会更加积极地缩减购债规模，可能会在3月份而不是6月份完成这一过程，但他预计美联储明年在利率问题上仍将“鸽派”。他表示，普里预测美联储明年只会加息一次，低于共识。</blockquote> \"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.<blockquote>纽约人寿投资公司的古德温表示：“我们预计明年将加息两次。”</blockquote> Morgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Shalett在2022年展望报告中写道，“我们看到了经典的通货再平衡，名义利率和实际利率上升反映了平均增长率和通胀率上升。”她还预计，收益率曲线将变陡，利润率将因成本上升而受到挤压，“利率敏感行业”的市盈率将压缩。</blockquote> \"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.<blockquote>摩根大通在周三的报告中表示：“在美国，我们喜欢重新开放和通货再膨胀主题以及债券收益率上升的受益者。”报告显示，该行策略师预计，到明年年底，10年期国债收益率将升至2.25%。</blockquote> \"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.<blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师Marko Kolanovic表示：“我们的观点是，2022年将是全球全面复苏、全球大流行结束、恢复到COVID-19爆发前正常状况的一年。”该行全球研究联席主管侯赛因·马利克周三在报告中写道。</blockquote> According to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"<blockquote>Shalett表示，“从大多数方面来看，2022年将是关键的一年，全球大流行造成的失衡开始解决，商业周期从极端情况正常化。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","OEX":"标普100",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","MS":"摩根士丹利","SPY":"标普500ETF","IDNA":"iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/proceed-with-caution-heres-what-wall-street-analysts-see-for-the-u-s-stock-market-in-2022-11638986154?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190503698","content_text":"'2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes,' says Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett\n‘Marginally tighter monetary policy’ should be a headwind for markets in 2022, JPMorgan strategists say\nThe recent spike in market volatility may herald a bumpier U.S. stock market in 2022, as investors come to grips with an inflection point in monetary policy in the pandemic.\n\"There probably will be some elevated volatility around the potential tightening of Fed policy,\" said Shawn Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citigroup's U.S. consumer wealth management division, in a phone interview. \"Omicron throws in a bit of a wrench\" to the 2022 outlook, he said of the new variant of the coronavirus, though investors have appeared encouraged by some early signs that it may be less dangerous than initially feared.\nThe CBOE Volatility Index , or VIX, jumped in late November and remains above its 200-day moving average even after subsiding since last week, according to FactSet data. The VIX broke above 30 last week for the first time since the first quarter of 2021, the data show, amid market jitters over the emergence of omicron and the potential move by the Federal Reserve to remove some accommodation from the market faster than investors had anticipated.\n\"That's a big transition that creates tension for investors,\" said Lauren Goodwin, economist and director of portfolio strategy at New York Life Investment, in a phone interview. The Fed looks to be positioning for more flexibility for potential interest rate hikes next year, with increased inflationary pressure likely to mean more rate rises in 2022 than currently expected, creating more market risk, she said.\nSome investors worry that interest rate-sensitive growth and technology stocks would be particularly vulnerable should the Fed aggressively tighten its monetary policy through rate hikes. The S&P 500 index, which has a large exposure to tech, is on track for a third straight year of strong gains after rising almost 25% in 2021 through Tuesday, according to FactSet.\nThe U.S. stock market will probably deliver more modest gains \"accompanied by higher volatility\" next year, Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, told MarketWatch by phone.\nGoodwin said she also expects increased volatility, amid transitions that include the fading of the fiscal stimulus that provided direct support to consumers during the COVID-19 crisis and the Fed taking its \"foot off the gas\" in the economic recovery. She expects \"much lower\" stock-market returns next year compared to gains so far in 2021.\n\"Most of the equity upside should be realized between now\" and the first half of 2022, \"when monetary and fiscal policy tailwinds will be strongest,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists said in a 2022 outlook report Wednesday.\nWall Street banks have been rolling out their 2022 forecasts for the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs Group and JPMorgan being among the most bullish on U.S. stocks.\nGoldman expects the S&P 500 will end 2022 at 5,100, according to a portfolio strategy research report from the bank dated Dec. 3. Meanwhile, JPMorgan analysts predicted in a research report at the end of November that the U.S. stock benchmark will rise next year to 5,050, partly on \"robust earnings growth\" and easing supply chain woes. RBC Capital Markets has forecast the same price target as JPMorgan, while Deutsche Bank predicts the S&P 500 will end next year at 5,000, according to a slide presentation from its chief investment office.\nMeanwhile, Citigroup set an S&P 500 target of 4,900 for the end of 2022, a research report from the bank in late October shows. Coming in below that level, Barclays predicted in a U.S. equity strategy report this month that the index will finish next year at 4,800.\n\"Proceed with caution,\" the Barclays analysts wrote in their 2022 outlook report dated Dec. 2. \"We see limited upside for equities next year,\" they said. In their view, \"household and corporate cash hoards should support modest earnings growth but persistent supply chain woes, reversal of goods consumption to trend are key tail risks.\"\nBank of America's analysts have a lower price target than Barclays for the S&P 500 next year, with a BofA Global Research report last month showing the benchmark will end 2022 at 4,600.\n\"Unfortunately we see a lot of similarities between today and 2000 -- the tech bubble peak,\" said Savita Subramanian, head of equity and quant strategy at BofA, during a late November media briefing on their U.S. stock market outlook.\nMorgan Stanley has a more bearish outlook for next year that puts the S&P 500 below the index's close Tuesday at 4,686.75. A report Monday from the bank's wealth management division shows a base-case forecast of 4,400 for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 even with an expected gain in earnings.\n\"We expect the S&P 500 to be range-bound and volatile, and bond returns to be negative net of inflation,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in the note. \"Fixed income should be reduced to fund greater exposure to real assets and to absolute return funds.\"\nThe core of Morgan Stanley's \"cautious\" view on the S&P 500 is based on price-to-earnings ratios typically compressing during \"a midcycle transition,\" Shalett said. She pointed to a chart in her note showing that \"median stock has traversed the midcycle transition.\"\nMORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT REPORT DATED DEC. 6, 2021\nThe chart shows \"the median S&P 500 stock has corrected 15% from its 52-week high,\" but the index has been kept aloft by the 15 largest companies now accounting for 40% of its market capitalization, according to her note.\n\"While they may be great companies, we are less convinced they will all be great stocks in 2022 as financial conditions tighten, interest rates rise, employment costs increase and inflation remains challenging,\" Shalett said. \"We think profit margins for the top 15 have peaked.\"\nIn Morgan Stanley's view, \"this suggests investors should move toward stock picking and away from passive index funds,\" her note shows.\nJPMorgan expects that \"international equities, emerging markets and cyclical market segments will significantly outperform,\" according to its report Wednesday.\n\"The reason for this is our expectation for increasing interest rates and marginally tighter monetary policy that should be a headwind for high-multiple markets such as the Nasdaq,\" the JPMorgan strategists wrote, citing the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index .\nCiti's Snyder told MarketWatch that during \"midcycle\" he likes high-quality stocks, \"dividend-growers\" and global healthcare equities. Consistent earnings growth and \"reasonable valuations\" make healthcare attractive, he said, and stock bets in the area can serve as \"a volatility dampener\" in portfolios.\nImmunology is one of three megatrends poised to accelerate next year as \"a range of next-gen oncological therapeutics come up for approval and enable more targeted cancer treatment,\" according to Jeff Spiegel, head of U.S. iShares megatrend and international ETFs. Shares of the iShares Genomics Immunology and Healthcare ETF were up about 0.2% this year based on midday trading Wednesday, FactSet data show, at last check.\nTwo other megatrends to watch in 2022 are \"digital transformation\" intensifying through the cloud, 5G and cybersecurity, and \"automation technologies\" such as robotics and artificial intelligence, Spiegel wrote in a report this month. Automation technologies should grow \"in response to ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and wage inflation\" in the pandemic, he wrote.\n\"I think we'll actually be dealing with gluts next year rather than shortages,\" said Charles Schwab's Kleintop. \"That will help drive down inflation, particularly in the second half of next year, making an aggressive path of rate hikes unlikely.\"\nThe market is expecting three rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2022 after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled last week that it may speed up the tapering of its monthly asset purchases, said Deepak Puri, Deutsche Bank's CIO for the America, during a media briefing Monday on his outlook for next year.\nWhile the Fed may become more aggressive in tapering its bond purchases, potentially completing the process in March instead of June, said Puri, he expects the Fed will still be \"dovish\" on rates next year. Puri forecasts that the Fed will raise rates just once next year, which is below consensus, he said.\n\"We expect two rate hikes next year,\" said New York Life Investment's Goodwin.\nMorgan Stanley's Shalett wrote in her 2022 outlook note that \"we see a classic reflationary rebalancing in which higher nominal and real rates reflect higher average growth and inflation rates.\" She also expects yield curves will steepen, profit margins to be squeezed by rising costs, and price-to-earnings ratios to compress in \"rate-sensitive sectors.\"\n\"Within the U.S., we like reopening and reflationary themes and beneficiaries of higher bond yields,\" JPMorgan said in its report Wednesday. The bank's strategists expect the yield on the 10-year Treasury note will rise to 2.25% by the end of next year, the report shows.\n\"Our view is that 2022 will be the year of a full global recovery, an end of the global pandemic, and a return to normal conditions we had prior to the COVID-19 outbreak,\" Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, and the bank's global co-head of research Hussein Malik wrote in the report Wednesday.\nAccording to Shalett, \"on most counts, 2022 will be a critical year when the imbalances wrought by the global pandemic begin to resolve and the business cycle normalizes from extremes.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"END":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IDNA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6926276,"gmtCreate":1639129696389,"gmtModify":1639129696481,"authorId":3564729179199965,"author":{"id":3564729179199965,"idStr":"3564729179199965","authorId":3564729179199965,"name":"YS6911","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d945f41d3a73db038b270e566266ad4e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602545480,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"High risk high gain","text":"High risk high gain","html":"High risk high gain"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":233,"commentSize":31,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}