奥密克戎，意味着新冠疫情大拐点？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

奥密克戎，意味着新冠疫情大拐点？

格隆汇2021-12-08

事件近日，美国国家过敏症和传染病研究所所长、白宫首席医学顾问安东尼·福奇表示，奥密克戎的初步数据在毒性方面“有点令人振奋”。受此影响，当日道琼斯指数大涨接近2%，美国十年国债收益率大幅反弹近10bp。第二个交易日道琼斯指数继续上涨1.4%，美国十年国债收益率继续反弹5bp。资本市场已经开始用脚投票。基本上股市已经收复了奥密克戎爆发以来的跌幅。那么，奥密克戎“毒性可能较弱”预示了什么？...

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101

touhouM1
·2021-12-09
击穿了人类所有的防疫点，融合了艾滋病的特点，会反复交叉感染，最终还是导致宿主死亡，只不过是时间长点
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mjng
·2021-12-09
学习
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CKWAI
·2021-12-09
来，回复和点赞，谢谢
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1
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- CKWAI:
  谢谢
  2021-12-09
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Youn7276
·2021-12-09
阅
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- 神话者:
  [微笑]
  2021-12-09
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高明兴_8399
·2021-12-08
good
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- 高明兴_8399:
  k
  2021-12-08
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Sunc
·2021-12-08
ok
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- Sunc:
  ok
  2021-12-08
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Yoongc
·2021-12-08
ok
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- Yoongc:
  ok
  2021-12-08
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TheWorld
·2021-12-08
和纽约下水道老鼠身上的病毒变异位点相似度特别高，未必是个向下拐点
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- Youn7276:
  好
  2021-12-09
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- HY1986:
  [惊讶]
  2021-12-08
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王小墨丶
·2021-12-08
希望赶紧过去
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- kimxuan:
  [开心]
  2021-12-08
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。新版本的病毒依然能打败老版本的病毒。\n这个阶段我们人类比较难受，会觉得这病毒好聪明啊——传播性快速提升，毒性加强。\n但是，演化是没方向的，进化只是我们人类基于自身立场的主观看法（这是一种历史性的看法）。\n幸运地是，病毒不会一直沿着传播性的方向演化，传播性的增加是有瓶颈的，一旦传播性的增速下降，环境压力的方向转变成环境适应性，即与人体和平相处。\n也就是说，熬过最苦的那个阶段，毒性的负向选择压力会起作用，病毒演化的方向会转为毒性下降。\n于是，在某个阶段，我们会发现新冠突然不行了，致死率和重症率突然下降。到这时候，我们才可以说，新冠演化的拐点来了。病毒演化的方向是跟人类和平相处，新冠疫情终于看到地头了。\n必然性和偶然性\n综上所述，从演化理论的视角来看，病毒的发展路径和阶段十分清晰：\n1、先是拼传播性，毒力上升是个结果，因为传播性快速上升容忍了毒力上升；\n2、传播性到了瓶颈之后，拼的才是环境适应性，不同版本的病毒要拼谁能跟人类和平相处，选择压力转向毒力；\n3、最后，传播性和毒力（实际中，一定的毒力是有利于复制的，譬如，咳嗽、飞沫等症状）会达到一个平衡。唯一搞不清楚的就是节奏，我们只能走一步看一步。\n这是演化理论内含的必然性和偶然性，毕竟这是在讨论历史性现象。节奏的预测是困难的，但拐点的确认并不难。\n事后来看，德尔塔出现的时候，人们觉得病毒在进化，时间是敌人，慌得一逼；较为温和的奥密克戎则相反，人们要终于感受到时间是朋友了。\n结束语\n最后稍微讲一点资本市场，较为温和的奥密克戎使得美股大涨、美债收益率快速拉升。这似乎是在定价恐慌情绪消退，但我认为，并不仅限于此。\n市场上总有一些聪明人会带节奏，带着市场去交易应该交易的东西。这个过程正在发生。\n如果你认同演化理论，那么，必然有以下推论：\n1、疫情终将过去；\n2、疫情终将有个拐点；\n3、拐点是一个传播性极强但毒力较弱的病毒版本；\n理解清楚这一系列推论之后，我们就能搞清楚奥密克戎的潜在意义（对于奥密克戎更细致和全面的评估正在路上，先不要轻易下结论）。\n有关常识传播，还有一个推论：\n只要相关的知识足够重要，即便这个知识再复杂，他也会变成常识。\n所以，市场会经历两个阶段：\n1、交易知识；\n2、交易常识；\n至于怎么做投资，怎么把握节奏，大家还是见仁见智，自己去把握吧。我觉得，对于这个重大变数，我已经提示到位了。\n此外，更新一下资产压力图，在奥密克戎刚出来的时候，资产压力图如下图所示，股票最惨，债券较好。\n\n现在要反转过来了，股票较好，债券最惨，美国资本市场也是这么反馈的。大家不要对别人的经验想当然，毕竟是真金白银做过一场打出来的。\n\n可以对节奏保持怀疑，但病毒毒力往弱化方向演化已经成了一个重要变数。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":602293857,"gmtCreate":1639023408247,"gmtModify":1639023408247,"author":{"id":"3453799794369800","authorId":"3453799794369800","name":"touhouM1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df0e44b6a82732b5b44d1c9b1a5320ed","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"击穿了人类所有的防疫点，融合了艾滋病的特点，会反复交叉感染，最终还是导致宿主死亡，只不过是时间长点","listText":"击穿了人类所有的防疫点，融合了艾滋病的特点，会反复交叉感染，最终还是导致宿主死亡，只不过是时间长点","text":"击穿了人类所有的防疫点，融合了艾滋病的特点，会反复交叉感染，最终还是导致宿主死亡，只不过是时间长点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602293857","repostId":2189651481,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602837785,"gmtCreate":1639006180339,"gmtModify":1639006180339,"author":{"id":"3564614537181603","authorId":"3564614537181603","name":"mjng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a854954445bb4118ad10dc538396e457","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"学习","listText":"学习","text":"学习","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602837785","repostId":2189651481,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602899074,"gmtCreate":1639004825057,"gmtModify":1639004825164,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","listText":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","text":"来，回复和点赞，谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602899074","repostId":2189651481,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6904081,"gmtCreate":1639004834079,"gmtModify":1639004834108,"authorId":3576460381606543,"author":{"id":3576460381606543,"authorId":3576460381606543,"name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602899074,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"谢谢","text":"谢谢","html":"谢谢"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602158570,"gmtCreate":1638998443499,"gmtModify":1638998693078,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602158570","repostId":2189651481,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6903583,"gmtCreate":1639002881175,"gmtModify":1639002881207,"authorId":4090235052856760,"author":{"id":4090235052856760,"authorId":4090235052856760,"name":"神话者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b20ae15ae6c2600ed63bffb924fc3d1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":602158570,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":602388261,"gmtCreate":1638972495846,"gmtModify":1638972536127,"author":{"id":"3557375403451824","authorId":"3557375403451824","name":"高明兴_8399","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c106c9c1b7bec94cd1fcd8a7834344f2","vip":1,"crmLev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