资本市场为何不爱雷军、李彦宏？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

资本市场为何不爱雷军、李彦宏？

好看商业2021-11-26

资本市场再一次不买小米的账。 Q3财报发布后，小米股价在11月24日盘中跌超7%，截至收盘，跌幅为6.96%。今年第三季度，小米营收780.6亿元，同比增长8.2%，略低于市场预期的796.14亿元；经调整后的净利润为51.76亿元，同比增加25.4%。小米的基本盘—智能手机业务Q3营收478亿元，毛利率12.8%，同比增长4.4个百分点。受手机业务拉动，小米Q3毛利率回升至18.3%，超...

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Liaw_0430
·2021-11-27
阅
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老头子
·2021-11-26
阿里腾讯美团今年也跌了不少，看看阿里，小米还算好的，幸存者偏差而已
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12
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- Lynn1298:
  Nice
  2021-11-26
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- Gladys80:
  👍
  2021-11-26
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Sam Ang
·2021-11-26
阅
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1
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longLong
·2021-11-26
我爱
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2
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新条茜
·2021-11-26
所以小米天天喊冲向高端市场
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1
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sala001
·2021-11-26
小米当时为什么能涨到34，跟这个价格之前刚入职不久的一位新员工(老外)绝对有直接性关系！
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2
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- 泽拉图:
  下次涨到30估计得新车下线了
  2021-11-26
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新幼虎
·2021-11-26
前几天不是有新闻说小米窃取用户资料什么的跌正常
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木凡yf
·2021-11-26
好好做就行。
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1
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魍魉饕餮
·2021-11-26
让莆田诈骗医疗，赔偿李老板万亿广告黑金吧！
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魍魉饕餮
·2021-11-26
让莆田诈骗医疗，赔偿李老板万亿广告黑金吧！
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股海沉浮录
·2021-11-26
小米说实在的.是品质还好的产品.服务于大众.价格低廉.但是你没故事缺爱国缺核心技术.市场最不喜欢的就是服务大众的人[笑哭] 服务大众等于不赚钱！哈哈哈哈
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- winner。:
  最主要还是没有核心竞争力，没有护城池，华为丢失的高端机市场几乎都被苹果吃了
  2021-11-26
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我和你娘是老乡
·2021-11-26
资本市场欺负咱们老实人
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4
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迪迪宝
·2021-11-26
别吹了，要不是小米又一次踩准时机穿安踏鞋，现在联想就是他
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- xigongwl:
  总结一点，市场根本不相信讲故事。
  2021-11-26
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dd0101
·2021-11-26
因为爱我。
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1
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yaozong7
·2021-11-26
In Chinese big tech we still believe.
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doesn't the capital market love Lei Jun and Li Yanhong?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a357011dcd5b390b0402db25baa98fe","symbols_score_info":{"QNETCN":0.9,"KC":0.9,"01810":0.9,"BIDU":0.9,"09888":0.9},"content_text":"资本市场再一次不买小米的账。\nQ3财报发布后，小米股价在11月24日盘中跌超7%，截至收盘，跌幅为6.96%。\n今年第三季度，小米营收780.6亿元，同比增长8.2%，略低于市场预期的796.14亿元；经调整后的净利润为51.76亿元，同比增加25.4%。\n小米的基本盘—智能手机业务Q3营收478亿元，毛利率12.8%，同比增长4.4个百分点。\n受手机业务拉动，小米Q3毛利率回升至18.3%，超市场预期。\n此外，小米Q3财报还有其它亮点。包括：境外市场收入409亿元，在总收入中占比达到52.4%；截至2021年11月22日，MIUI全球月活跃用户数首次破5亿；互联网服务收入73亿元，再创单季度历史新高，毛利率73.6%，同比提升13.1个百分点。\n奈何资本市场并不买账，小米股价在财报发布次日开盘就变绿；11月25日，小米股价盘中继续下跌，不过最终以微涨1.66%收盘。\n小米股价在今年1月1日达到历史高点35.9港元，之后几乎一路向下。截至11月25日收盘，小米盘中最低跌至19.02港元，年内最大跌幅超47%。\n“劳模”雷军勤奋工作一整年，小米的股票市值缩水近一半。在这一点上，百度创始人、董事长兼CEO李彦宏跟雷军的待遇差不多。\n百度股票在今年2月1日触及近几年高位354.8美元，市值再次突破千亿美元大关。但之后很快进入下跌通道。\n截至11月24日美股收盘，百度股价为151.39美元，总市值535.32亿美元，结结实实地缩水了一半。百度在港股的表现与美股基本一致。\n年过50依然仰望星空，勤奋且没打算退休，公开场合还能听到他们演讲，雷军、李彦宏这样的企业家如今在国内互联网圈不多见了。\n但资本市场总是不买他们的账，这究竟是为什么？\n股价意难平\n业绩不错，但资本市场不买账。这种情形，小米再熟悉不过了，毕竟它不是第一次在资本市场意难平了。\n今年上半年，小米几乎迎来史上最好的时候：二季度收入877.9亿元，同比大增64%，经调整净利润63亿元，同比增加87.4%。小米在二季报中评价其业绩时，连用了7次“创历史新高”。\n但是，但是，面对小米如此高光的时刻，资本市场就是不买账。财报发布次日，股价开盘半小时就由红转绿，最终以3.55%的跌幅报收。\n今年3月11日，小米正式决议行使股份购回授权，以不定期按最高总额100亿港元在公开市场购回股份。\n目前为止，小米已经多次回购股票，但仍不能改变股价走势。\n有投资者在股票社区吐槽说：实在是地狱模式，上半年投了12万，一不留神就跌超30%了，何至于此呢？\n就连雷军自己也有点想不通。他曾在小米十一周年的演讲中问：“我们如此努力地工作，小米的收入和市场份额都在增长。为什么资本市场就是不认可小米？”\n雷军承认，股价破发和跌跌不休，曾给他造成心理阴影。\n2018年，小米启动IPO，全球瞩目。它是香港首家同股不同权的公司上市，也是全球第三大规模的科技股IPO。\n最初的预期里，小米的IPO估值可到2000亿美元。雷军在小米最终定价前也摇旗呐喊，称小米的估值应该是苹果×腾讯。但最终小米IPO定价17港元，意味着IPO估值只有约500亿美元，较预期大打折扣。\n即便如此，2018年7月9日，小米挂牌当天就破发，IPO投资者全部亏损，包括为小米IPO站台的基石投资者李嘉诚、马云、马化腾等名流。这让雷军和小米管理层都感到难堪。\n雷军在IPO晚宴致辞时忍不住打了一个包票：今天破发，我对不住大家了。我们会努力工作，一定要让IPO投资者至少赚一倍！\n雷军那天晚上喝了很多酒，他跟同事反复说，一定要努力工作，不能亏别人的钱。\n结果，小米股价在两年后才让IPO投资者回本。雷军给自己挖的坑，花了2年半时间才填上。\n今年1月4日，小米股价达到34港元高位，较IPO发行价翻了一倍。雷军在8月份的年度演讲中提到，当年吹的牛（让IPO投资者赚一倍）终于兑现了，他可以卸载所有股票软件，再也不关心股价了。\n所以，目前有亏钱的股民呼吁雷军赶快把炒股软件再装回来。对此，不知道雷军怎么看？\n相比之下，李彦宏对股价似乎早已变得佛系了。\n今年初，百度市值重回千亿美金，外界纷纷认为“能打的百度回来了”。李彦宏却在内部分享了一封投资者的来信，用意大概就是让大家忘记股价。\n那位投资者在信中说，“股价不是衡量百度存在价值的尺子，对于百度来说，最重要的是能否推动人类的进步和发展”。所以，他认为，百度应该忽略资本市场的一些声音，更不要去刻意迎合资本市场。\n2005年百度上市时，李彦宏也曾对发行价“斤斤计较”，一再上调。\n当年百度开始内部定价时，投行推荐定在17~19美元区间，在百度要求下，调高到要18~20美元，但百度还是觉得这个定价低了，经过一番讨论后他们又把发行价定在19~21美元区间。\n最后到最后，百度再次提高发行价，满意地定在了27美元。\n出乎所有人预料的是，2005年8月5日晚，百度在美股挂牌后开盘暴涨至66美元，盘中攀高至150美元，最终以122.54美元收盘。\n2005年8月5日，百度登陆纳斯达克\n2011年3月，百度成为中国市值最高的互联网公司，李彦宏也一举登上“中国首富宝座”。\n但那几乎也是百度的巅峰时刻。之后，百度市值逐渐被阿里、腾讯远远甩在身后；最近几年，甚至被后起之秀京东、美团、拼多多和字节纷纷赶超。\n到2015年3月，百度市值已经不及腾讯的1/2，只有阿里的1/3。但就他们在2014年的营收和净利润来看，百度与腾讯、阿里的差距并没有市值差距那么大。\n面对百度市值被赶超，以及首富位置易主，李彦宏曾在2015年做客央视节目时表示，（股价）慢慢会反应百度的真实价值，他的性格就是认准了就去做，不跟风不动摇，别人怎么想无所谓。\n现实很难，梦想很贵又很远\n小米和百度，目前呈现给资本市场的共同点是：老业务有挑战，不进则退；新业务需要持续烧钱，且短期内看不到大规模的商业变现。\n小米独创了铁人三项的商业模式，核心就是向用户提供极致性价比的硬件，在此基础上，靠互联网业务赚钱。\n在IPO前，雷军甚至公开承诺小米的硬件综合净利润率永远不超过5%，如果有超出部分，将全部返还给用户。\n但截至目前，小米的营收和利润依然主要来自硬件。\n2020年，小米实现营收2459亿元，其中，1522亿元来自智能手机，674亿元来自IOT与生活消费品，这意味着，硬件营收占比约90%；来自互联网服务的营收为238亿元，在总营收中占比9.6%。\n今年Q3，小米总收入781亿元，虽然互联网服务收入增速最快，毛利率最高，达到73.6%，但它也只贡献了9.4%的营收，比例较去年底还下降了。\n所以，目前资本市场依然把小米当成硬件公司，给出的市盈率约为16。苹果的市盈率远好于小米，目前接近29。\n从收入结构看，最新财报显示，硬件收入在苹果总营收中占比超78%，软件服务占比接近22%。而苹果的毛利水平也好于小米，2021财年Q4毛利率达到42.2%；小米Q3的毛利率为18.3%。\n\n\n随着华为手机让出市场蛋糕，今年2季度，小米手机站上全球第二，仅次于三星，领先于苹果。\n但到了Q3，Canalys报告显示，小米手机出货量同比下滑约6%，市占率14%，排名降至第三；苹果出货量同比增长14%，市占率达到15%，抢回市占率第二的位置。\n2021Q3，全球手机市场份额数据，图片来源：Canalys\n小米现在面对的挑战，外有苹果，内有荣耀。\n今年Q3，小米在国内市场被荣耀赶超，丢掉市占率第三的位置，降至第四。\n2021Q3，中国手机市场份额数据，图片来源：Canalys\n对于影响小米出货量的核心零部件短缺问题，小米管理层给出的判断不乐观。他们认为，到2022年上半年仍存在结构性的挑战。\n智能手机是小米的基本盘。手机出货增长不乐观，小米的研发和管理费用却在快速增长。\n第三季度，小米的管理费用增长50%；研发费用增加40%，而营收增速只有8.2%。\n这背后，一个很重要的持续花钱项就是造车。小米今年3月底正式官宣造车，目前团队规模超500人，但预计到2024年上半年才能正式量产。而小米在造车上的重投入才刚开始。\n现实很难，梦想很贵又很远，小米如此，百度同样受困于此。\n最近几年，百度的基本盘-在线广告业务持续受到字节系和阿里、腾讯的分食，这是大背景。\n加上疫情等因素导致的经济下行，也增加了百度广告的变现难度。\n今年Q3，百度核心（含传统广告业务+创新业务）营收247亿元，同比增长15%。其中，广告收入195亿元，同比增长6%。今年前三季度，百度广告增速都呈显著下滑态势。\n百度的创新业务，包括智能云、Apollo自动驾驶与智能音箱等增长迅速。第三季度，创新业务营收增长76%，但这块业务营收规模很小，只有约52亿元。\n同样的，百度造车、无人驾驶等在内的创新业务也都是需要持续大投入的项目。\nQ3，百度核心的研发投入同比增长46%，销售和行政费用同比飙升82%；而同期营收增速只有15%。\n百度的集度汽车预计2022年量产；而Apollo自动驾驶相关业务短期内很难大规模商业化。\n高投入、慢增长将成常态？\n随着消费互联网红利见顶，多种迹象表明，国内互联网行业正在告别高增长。\n今年Q3，阿里营收同比增长29%，明显低于市场预期；不仅如此，阿里还破天荒地调低了全年营收增长指引，从30%下调到20%-23%。\n腾讯增速也在放缓。今年Q3，其营收同比增长13%；而去年同期的营收增速是29%。\n就连此前一直增长生猛的字节跳动也曝出增速放缓的消息。\n据证券时报报道，字节跳动商业化产品部近期在全员大会上披露，其国内广告收入过去半年增长停止，这在字节跳动2013年商业化以来的几年里尚属首次。\n从阿里、腾讯、美团、字节等巨头的动作看，从消费互联网向产业互联网和硬科技转型，是必然选择和不得不为。\n硬科技、产业互联网的特点就是前期投入大，见效慢。国内AI四小龙的成长轨迹已经佐证了这一点。\n小米、百度押注的智能汽车、人工智能都被视为未来十年超大规模的阳光型赛道，但同时也是前期投入大、见效慢的方向。但就像雷军所说，方向对了，就不怕路远。\n只是，无论是互联网从业者还是资本市场，都需要适应慢下来的节奏，这需要时间，但又不得不面对和接受。\n相比较而言，在向硬科技、产业互联网转型的路上，小米、百度开始的都不算晚，甚至是走在了前列。\n不仅如此，他们底气也算足，除了人才和技术积淀，手上还有很多钱。\n截至今年三季度末，小米账上的现金及现金等价物为326.49亿元，而其现金资源总额为981亿元。\n同期，排除爱奇艺，百度持有的现金、现金等价物、限制性现金和短期投资总值为1836亿元（约合284.9亿美元）。\n所以，一直以来，市场上都有声音认为，小米和百度被低估了。但让人费解的是，既然被低估，股价为何又跌跌不休？\n面对这样的资本市场，对于雷军和李彦宏而言，除了暂时忘掉股价，专心赶路，可能也别无他途。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":877497802,"gmtCreate":1637969425811,"gmtModify":1637969425811,"aut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