大摩唱空美股：戴维斯双杀，美股面临10%以上调整_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

大摩唱空美股：戴维斯双杀，美股面临10%以上调整

市场资讯2021-10-11

在上个月高呼“美股真可能回调20%”之后，摩根士丹利依然坚守自己的空头立场，认为美股将经历“冰与火之歌”。摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson有着“华尔街最悲观分析师”之称，他在最新的报告中重申了此前的观点，认为周期中期过度结束会有两种常见的结果：火：随着美联储缩减购债进程的临近，金融环境将面临收紧；冰：增长令人失望，尤其是企业盈利端。在9月的报告中，Wilson曾认为，“火”的情境...

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Wilson有着“华尔街最悲观分析师”之称，他在最新的报告中重申了此前的观点，认为周期中期过度结束会有两种常见的结果：\n火：随着美联储缩减购债进程的临近，金融环境将面临收紧；冰：增长令人失望，尤其是企业盈利端。\n在9月的报告中，Wilson曾认为，“火”的情境下，标普500指数将出现温和而健康的10%回调，而在“冰”的情景下，美国消费者信心最近急剧下降，标普500指数可能会出现至少10-20%的回调。\n\n这次，Wilson的观点有了一点变化，他表示，两种场景同时上演的可能性越来越高，这将导致美股出现10%以上的回调。\n“美联储可能会在下个月的FOMC会议上宣布Taper计划，而同一时间，我们也预计企业盈利情况会比预期的更糟糕。”\n美联储11月行动基本上已是华尔街的共识，对于盈利的警告，Wilson具体提到，在过去一个月非周期型企业发布的财报中，大量公司都指出了严重的供应链问题，财报发布后，企业的未来盈利预期和股价预期都被下调了。\n\n更严重的是，Wilson认为这种情况可能会成为三季度财报季普遍存在的现象，并将“引发指数水平上的盈利下调——这对股价当然是不利的。”\n\n他提到，三季度企业的盈利风险还将来自于：1）企业无法将涨价的压力向下传导；2）工资上涨侵蚀利润的风险；3）商品消费端出现滑坡。\n在此前的报告中，Wilson建议投资者坚守防御性、优质的股票（医药和必选消费板块），以应对“冰”的考验，并保留一些金融股的敞口应对“火”，这类资产将受益于利率上升。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":828670099,"gmtCreate":1633913167638,"gmtModify":1633913167638,"author":{"id":"3534512588973359","authorId":"3534512588973359","name":"口丁口米口米","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b1a562c1ba291fb3710faaeabf74d94","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828670099","repostId":2174000921,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6157168,"gmtCreate":1633913523217,"gmtModify":1634716589840,"authorId":4088125554959510,"author":{"id":4088125554959510,"authorId":4088125554959510,"name":"Vicholes","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":828670099,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[开心] 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