Let's Wait A Little More Before Buying Palantir_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Let's Wait A Little More Before Buying Palantir

Seeking Alpha2022-01-07

SummaryPalantir has immense opportunity as the world seeks to harness the power of the data.The company has great software that delivers a sticky product, high margin, and a near-ubiquitous ...

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rowsan
·2022-01-07
Well said but Cathie just bought
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In the future, the one that can harness this data will be miles ahead of their competitors, so the ability to process this massive data is expected to be extremely valuable.Palantir (PLTR) is a company building \"software that empowers organizations to effectively integrate their data, decisions, and operations,\" or in other words, Plantar is the company that is at the forefront of harnessing the power of data to solve enterprise-level extremely complex problems. Thus, being a leader in this industry makes the company's fundamentals and vision extremely attractive; however, I believe it is better for investors to wait for the time being before investing in Palantir. The economic policies and the market sentiments are moving away from the expansionary policy potentially opening up the possibility for further consolidation in Palantir stocks. Further, the massive amounts of stock-based compensation (SBC) that the company is justifying are unfriendly to shareholders. I think it is better for either the company to reduce SBC or wait until the revenue growth makes SBC a smaller part of the overall revenue.FundamentalsBefore talking about the absurd valuation and the SBC, I would like to point out the marvelous business that Palantir has briefly pointed out that the only problem that the company or the stock has is its SBC and valuation.Palantir's business is beautiful; it can be applied to governments and commercial customers in any industry. The company has the National Institute of Health, Department of Veteran Affairs, Army, Air Force, and etc., as its government customers who utilize Palantir's software to tackle everything from defense and intelligence gathering to improving veteran patient cares. Further, Palantir's commercial software applications are as flexible as the government business. The company has numerous enterprises as its customers including L3Harris (LHX), Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF), Ferrari (RACE), Rio Tinto (RIO), and etc. improving everything from manufacturing to mining. This alone shows investors the power of harnessing the data and the opportunity Palantir has moving forward into the future.As a result of such a promising and dynamic product, the company's operational growth and financial health have been firing on all cylinders.In 2021Q3, Palantir reported revenue of $392 million, which was 36% growth year-over-year while the customer count grew even faster at 46%. I believe customer growth promises future revenue growth because it takes months to years for revenue to meaningfully materialize, so the fact that the customer growth grew even faster than the revenue growth was significant. Further, adjusted free cash flow turned positive to $119 million compared to -$53 million 2020Q3. The adjusted operating margins continued to be at 30% while the adjusted gross margin was at an impressive 82%. The company, in simple words, is showing growth and improving operations.Stock-Based CompensationDespite the promising fundamental thesis and top-line growth that the company has been showing, I do not believe Palantir stock is a buy at the moment because of massive SBC. The company has been massively diluting its shareholder base through absurd SBC citing that they need to attract talent, which may be true to some extent. As the chart below shows, since the IPO on September 30th, 2020, the company's outstanding shares increased from about 900 million to 1.964 billion, which is over 100% dilution. When calculating the dilution from the start of 2021 at 1.8 billion shares, the company has diluted shareholders by 10% in 2021 alone. I think this is simply absurd and shows the unfriendly attitude of the management towards its shareholder.Data by YCharts.Chart created by author using YCharts from Seeking AlphaTo better understand how serious the dilution or the SBC is, I created a chart below showing the stock-based compensation data throughout 2021. As you can see in the chart below, SBC consistently represented over 50% of the company's revenue. It is the biggest cost for the company, and it has been the reason why the company has been reporting a net loss.Chart created by author using Source 1, Source 2, and Source 3SBC is a great way to reward employees and attract talent in the market. However, Palantir, in my opinion, has been degrading shareholder value due to excessive SBC. Thus, until either the SBC shows a decreasing trend or the SBC becomes irrelevantly small in comparison to the revenue, I believe investors should think twice before investing in Palantir.Financials and ValuationUnlike valuations, I believe the financial health of Palantir's balance sheet is great. The company currently has about $2.3 billion in cash with about $3.2 billion in total assets while the total liability stood at only $987 million putting total liability to asset ratio (L/A) at 43%. Further, because the company generated about $240 million during operation with negligible long-term debt, I believe the financial situation of Palantir is great.On the other hand, Palantir's valuation is slightly questionable. The company has a market capitalization of about $37 billion dollars today. The company has a high price to sales ratio of about 28 with an expected forward price to earnings ratio of about 120. It is true that the company's business is high margin and crucial, but considering the SBC and today's economic conditions, I believe this valuation may be too high. Unlike in most of 2020 and 2021, the Federal Reserve is ending the expansionary policy. Instead, they are expecting to finish tapering by March of 2022 and raise rates possible in March, which will effectively raise long-term treasury rates and decrease the investment in the stock market. Therefore, a higher valuation might have been justified in the previous 2 years, but going into 2022, I believe a higher valuation may result in either contraction or range-bound trading for the time being.SummaryPalantir is a unique company and a perfect example of a great company but a bad stock. I truly believe in the power and the potential of Palantir's software. It can be applied in almost any industry from healthcare to defense to manufacturing. However, the company's excessive stock-based compensation and valuation hesitate me. The company has been justifying its high stock-based compensation without showing signs of stopping, and I believe this is just taking advantage of its shareholders by diluting their value. Therefore, I believe it is better to wait until stock-based compensation is either showing a decreasing trend or becoming a smaller portion of the revenue due to Palantir's continued growth.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":695479013,"gmtCreate":1641563459540,"gmtModify":1641563459540,"author":{"id":"3582434048223975","authorId":"3582434048223975","name":"rowsan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582434048223975","authorIdStr":"3582434048223975"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;Well said but Cathie just bought","listText":"&nbsp;Well said but Cathie just bought","text":"Well said but Cathie just bought","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695479013","repostId":1198431360,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1198431360","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641537263,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198431360?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-07 14:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Let's Wait A Little More Before Buying Palantir<blockquote>在购买Palantir之前让我们再等一会儿</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198431360","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has immense opportunity as the world seeks to harness the power of the data.The comp","content":"<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Palantir has immense opportunity as the world seeks to harness the power of the data.</li><li>The company has great software that delivers a sticky product, high margin, and a near-ubiquitous application to its service.</li><li>However, due to the absurd stock-based compensation and a high valuation, I believe it is better to wait a little more before buying Palantir.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>随着世界寻求利用数据的力量，Palantir拥有巨大的机会。</li><li>该公司拥有出色的软件，可以提供粘性产品、高利润以及几乎无处不在的服务应用程序。</li><li>然而，由于荒谬的股票薪酬和高估值，我认为在购买Palantir之前最好再等一会儿。</li></ul>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote>Introduction and Thesis<blockquote>导言和论文</blockquote>Our future is inevitably data.Since the age of the internet, digitalization in all aspects of our society has been ongoing creating massive amounts of data. In the future, the one that can harness this data will be miles ahead of their competitors, so the ability to process this massive data is expected to be extremely valuable.<blockquote>我们的未来必然是数据。自互联网时代以来，我们社会各个方面的数字化一直在创造大量的数据。未来，能够利用这些数据的公司将遥遥领先于竞争对手，因此处理这些海量数据的能力预计将非常有价值。</blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) is a company building &#34;software that empowers organizations to effectively integrate their data, decisions, and operations,&#34; or in other words, Plantar is the company that is at the forefront of harnessing the power of data to solve enterprise-level extremely complex problems. Thus, being a leader in this industry makes the company&#39;s fundamentals and vision extremely attractive; however, I believe it is better for investors to wait for the time being before investing in Palantir. The economic policies and the market sentiments are moving away from the expansionary policy potentially opening up the possibility for further consolidation in Palantir stocks. Further, the massive amounts of stock-based compensation (SBC) that the company is justifying are unfriendly to shareholders. I think it is better for either the company to reduce SBC or wait until the revenue growth makes SBC a smaller part of the overall revenue.<blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)是一家构建“使组织能够有效集成其数据、决策和运营的软件”的公司，或者换句话说，Plantar是一家处于利用数据力量解决企业级问题前沿的公司极其复杂的问题。因此，成为该行业的领导者使得公司的基本面和愿景极具吸引力；不过，我相信投资者在投资Palantir之前最好暂时等待。经济政策和市场情绪正在远离扩张性政策，这可能会为Palantir股票进一步整合提供可能性。此外，该公司证明合理的大量股票薪酬（SBC）对股东不友好。我认为，对于公司来说，要么减少SBC，要么等到收入增长使SBC在整体收入中的比例更小。</blockquote>Fundamentals<blockquote>基本原则</blockquote>Before talking about the absurd valuation and the SBC, I would like to point out the marvelous business that Palantir has briefly pointed out that the only problem that the company or the stock has is its SBC and valuation.<blockquote>在谈论荒谬的估值和SBC之前，我想指出Palantir简要指出的出色业务，该公司或股票存在的唯一问题是其SBC和估值。</blockquote>Palantir&#39;s business is beautiful; it can be applied to governments and commercial customers in any industry. The company has the National Institute of Health, Department of Veteran Affairs, Army, Air Force, and etc., as its government customers who utilize Palantir&#39;s software to tackle everything from defense and intelligence gathering to improving veteran patient cares. Further, Palantir&#39;s commercial software applications are as flexible as the government business. The company has numerous enterprises as its customers including L3Harris (LHX), Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF), Ferrari (RACE), Rio Tinto (RIO), and etc. improving everything from manufacturing to mining. This alone shows investors the power of harnessing the data and the opportunity Palantir has moving forward into the future.<blockquote>Palantir的业务很漂亮；它可以应用于任何行业的政府和商业客户。该公司拥有美国国立卫生研究院、退伍军人事务部、陆军、空军等。，作为其政府客户，他们利用Palantir的软件来解决从国防和情报收集到改善退伍军人患者护理的所有问题。此外，Palantir的商业软件应用程序与政府业务一样灵活。该公司的客户包括L3Harris(LHX)、空客(OTCPK：EADSF)、法拉利(RACE)、力拓(RIO)等众多企业，改善从制造到采矿的一切。仅此一点就向投资者展示了利用数据的力量以及Palantir迈向未来的机会。</blockquote>As a result of such a promising and dynamic product, the company&#39;s operational growth and financial health have been firing on all cylinders.In 2021Q3, Palantir reported revenue of $392 million, which was 36% growth year-over-year while the customer count grew even faster at 46%. I believe customer growth promises future revenue growth because it takes months to years for revenue to meaningfully materialize, so the fact that the customer growth grew even faster than the revenue growth was significant. Further, adjusted free cash flow turned positive to $119 million compared to -$53 million 2020Q3. The adjusted operating margins continued to be at 30% while the adjusted gross margin was at an impressive 82%. The company, in simple words, is showing growth and improving operations.<blockquote>由于有了如此有前途和充满活力的产品，该公司的运营增长和财务健康状况一直在全速运转。2021年第三季度，Palantir报告收入为3.92亿美元，同比增长36%，而客户数量增长更快，达到46%。我相信客户增长预示着未来的收入增长，因为收入需要几个月到几年的时间才能有意义地实现，因此客户增长甚至快于收入增长的事实意义重大。此外，调整后的自由现金流转为正值，达到1.19亿美元，而2020年第三季度为-5300万美元。调整后营业利润率继续保持在30%，而调整后毛利率达到令人印象深刻的82%。简而言之，该公司正在显示增长并改善运营。</blockquote>Stock-Based Compensation<blockquote>股票薪酬</blockquote>Despite the promising fundamental thesis and top-line growth that the company has been showing, I do not believe Palantir stock is a buy at the moment because of massive SBC. The company has been massively diluting its shareholder base through absurd SBC citing that they need to attract talent, which may be true to some extent. As the chart below shows, since the IPO on September 30th, 2020, the company&#39;s outstanding shares increased from about 900 million to 1.964 billion, which is over 100% dilution. When calculating the dilution from the start of 2021 at 1.8 billion shares, the company has diluted shareholders by 10% in 2021 alone. I think this is simply absurd and shows the unfriendly attitude of the management towards its shareholder.<blockquote>尽管该公司一直表现出充满希望的基本面和营收增长，但我认为Palantir股票目前不值得买入，因为SBC庞大。该公司一直在通过荒谬的SBC大规模稀释其股东基础，理由是他们需要吸引人才，这在某种程度上可能是真的。如下图所示，自2020年9月30日IPO以来，该公司的流通股从约9亿股增加到19.64亿股，稀释超过100%。当计算2021年初的18亿股稀释时，该公司仅在2021年就将股东稀释了10%。我认为这简直是荒谬的，显示了管理层对其股东的不友好态度。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39d58178a2c717516f346622b9a5d70a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts.Chart created by author using YCharts from Seeking Alpha<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供。作者使用Seeking Alpha中的YCharts创建的图表</blockquote>To better understand how serious the dilution or the SBC is, I created a chart below showing the stock-based compensation data throughout 2021. As you can see in the chart below, SBC consistently represented over 50% of the company&#39;s revenue. It is the biggest cost for the company, and it has been the reason why the company has been reporting a net loss.<blockquote>为了更好地了解稀释或SBC的严重程度，我创建了下面的图表，显示了2021年全年基于股票的薪酬数据。如下图所示，SBC始终占公司收入的50%以上。这是该公司最大的成本，也是该公司一直报告净亏损的原因。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eef22cb497a81858cdd2c8d65756280\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Chart created by author using Source 1, Source 2, and Source 3<blockquote>作者使用源1、源2和源3创建的图表</blockquote>SBC is a great way to reward employees and attract talent in the market. However, Palantir, in my opinion, has been degrading shareholder value due to excessive SBC. Thus, until either the SBC shows a decreasing trend or the SBC becomes irrelevantly small in comparison to the revenue, I believe investors should think twice before investing in Palantir.<blockquote>SBC是奖励员工和吸引市场人才的好方法。然而，在我看来，Palantir由于SBC过多而降低了股东价值。因此，在SBC显示出下降趋势或SBC与收入相比变得微不足道之前，我认为投资者在投资Palantir之前应该三思而后行。</blockquote>Financials and Valuation<blockquote>财务和估值</blockquote>Unlike valuations, I believe the financial health of Palantir&#39;s balance sheet is great. The company currently has about $2.3 billion in cash with about $3.2 billion in total assets while the total liability stood at only $987 million putting total liability to asset ratio (L/A) at 43%. Further, because the company generated about $240 million during operation with negligible long-term debt, I believe the financial situation of Palantir is great.<blockquote>与估值不同，我相信Palantir资产负债表的财务健康状况非常好。该公司目前拥有约23亿美元现金，总资产约32亿美元，而总负债仅为9.87亿美元，总资产负债率(L/A)为43%。此外，由于该公司在运营期间产生了约2.4亿美元的长期债务可以忽略不计，因此我相信Palantir的财务状况非常好。</blockquote>On the other hand, Palantir&#39;s valuation is slightly questionable. The company has a market capitalization of about $37 billion dollars today. The company has a high price to sales ratio of about 28 with an expected forward price to earnings ratio of about 120. It is true that the company&#39;s business is high margin and crucial, but considering the SBC and today&#39;s economic conditions, I believe this valuation may be too high. Unlike in most of 2020 and 2021, the Federal Reserve is ending the expansionary policy. Instead, they are expecting to finish tapering by March of 2022 and raise rates possible in March, which will effectively raise long-term treasury rates and decrease the investment in the stock market. Therefore, a higher valuation might have been justified in the previous 2 years, but going into 2022, I believe a higher valuation may result in either contraction or range-bound trading for the time being.<blockquote>另一方面，Palantir的估值略有问题。该公司目前的市值约为370亿美元。该公司的市销率很高，约为28，预期远期市盈率约为120。诚然，该公司的业务利润率高且至关重要，但考虑到SBC和当今的经济状况，我认为这个估值可能过高。与2020年和2021年的大部分时间不同，美联储正在结束扩张性政策。相反，他们预计将在2022年3月之前完成缩减规模，并可能在3月加息，这将有效提高长期国债利率并减少对股市的投资。因此，在前两年，较高的估值可能是合理的，但进入2022年，我认为较高的估值可能会暂时导致收缩或区间交易。</blockquote>Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote>Palantir is a unique company and a perfect example of a great company but a bad stock. I truly believe in the power and the potential of Palantir&#39;s software. It can be applied in almost any industry from healthcare to defense to manufacturing. However, the company&#39;s excessive stock-based compensation and valuation hesitate me. The company has been justifying its high stock-based compensation without showing signs of stopping, and I believe this is just taking advantage of its shareholders by diluting their value. Therefore, I believe it is better to wait until stock-based compensation is either showing a decreasing trend or becoming a smaller portion of the revenue due to Palantir&#39;s continued growth.<blockquote>Palantir是一家独特的公司，也是一家伟大公司但却是一只糟糕股票的完美例子。我真的相信Palantir软件的力量和潜力。它几乎可以应用于任何行业，从医疗保健到国防再到制造业。然而，公司过高的股票薪酬和估值让我犹豫不决。该公司一直在证明其高额股票薪酬的合理性，而且没有停止的迹象，我相信这只是通过稀释股东的价值来利用股东。因此，我认为最好等到基于股票的薪酬要么呈下降趋势，要么由于Palantir的持续增长而成为收入的一小部分。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Let's Wait A Little More Before Buying Palantir<blockquote>在购买Palantir之前让我们再等一会儿</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLet's Wait A Little More Before Buying Palantir<blockquote>在购买Palantir之前让我们再等一会儿</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2022-01-07 14:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Summary<blockquote><html><head></head><body>总结</body></html></blockquote><ul><li>Palantir has immense opportunity as the world seeks to harness the power of the data.</li><li>The company has great software that delivers a sticky product, high margin, and a near-ubiquitous application to its service.</li><li>However, due to the absurd stock-based compensation and a high valuation, I believe it is better to wait a little more before buying Palantir.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02d7c2e5739d48a7457788f40f66148c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>随着世界寻求利用数据的力量，Palantir拥有巨大的机会。</li><li>该公司拥有出色的软件，可以提供粘性产品、高利润以及几乎无处不在的服务应用程序。</li><li>然而，由于荒谬的股票薪酬和高估值，我认为在购买Palantir之前最好再等一会儿。</li></ul>Michael Vi/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote>Introduction and Thesis<blockquote>导言和论文</blockquote>Our future is inevitably data.Since the age of the internet, digitalization in all aspects of our society has been ongoing creating massive amounts of data. In the future, the one that can harness this data will be miles ahead of their competitors, so the ability to process this massive data is expected to be extremely valuable.<blockquote>我们的未来必然是数据。自互联网时代以来，我们社会各个方面的数字化一直在创造大量的数据。未来，能够利用这些数据的公司将遥遥领先于竞争对手，因此处理这些海量数据的能力预计将非常有价值。</blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) is a company building &#34;software that empowers organizations to effectively integrate their data, decisions, and operations,&#34; or in other words, Plantar is the company that is at the forefront of harnessing the power of data to solve enterprise-level extremely complex problems. Thus, being a leader in this industry makes the company&#39;s fundamentals and vision extremely attractive; however, I believe it is better for investors to wait for the time being before investing in Palantir. The economic policies and the market sentiments are moving away from the expansionary policy potentially opening up the possibility for further consolidation in Palantir stocks. Further, the massive amounts of stock-based compensation (SBC) that the company is justifying are unfriendly to shareholders. I think it is better for either the company to reduce SBC or wait until the revenue growth makes SBC a smaller part of the overall revenue.<blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)是一家构建“使组织能够有效集成其数据、决策和运营的软件”的公司，或者换句话说，Plantar是一家处于利用数据力量解决企业级问题前沿的公司极其复杂的问题。因此，成为该行业的领导者使得公司的基本面和愿景极具吸引力；不过，我相信投资者在投资Palantir之前最好暂时等待。经济政策和市场情绪正在远离扩张性政策，这可能会为Palantir股票进一步整合提供可能性。此外，该公司证明合理的大量股票薪酬（SBC）对股东不友好。我认为，对于公司来说，要么减少SBC，要么等到收入增长使SBC在整体收入中的比例更小。</blockquote>Fundamentals<blockquote>基本原则</blockquote>Before talking about the absurd valuation and the SBC, I would like to point out the marvelous business that Palantir has briefly pointed out that the only problem that the company or the stock has is its SBC and valuation.<blockquote>在谈论荒谬的估值和SBC之前，我想指出Palantir简要指出的出色业务，该公司或股票存在的唯一问题是其SBC和估值。</blockquote>Palantir&#39;s business is beautiful; it can be applied to governments and commercial customers in any industry. The company has the National Institute of Health, Department of Veteran Affairs, Army, Air Force, and etc., as its government customers who utilize Palantir&#39;s software to tackle everything from defense and intelligence gathering to improving veteran patient cares. Further, Palantir&#39;s commercial software applications are as flexible as the government business. The company has numerous enterprises as its customers including L3Harris (LHX), Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF), Ferrari (RACE), Rio Tinto (RIO), and etc. improving everything from manufacturing to mining. This alone shows investors the power of harnessing the data and the opportunity Palantir has moving forward into the future.<blockquote>Palantir的业务很漂亮；它可以应用于任何行业的政府和商业客户。该公司拥有美国国立卫生研究院、退伍军人事务部、陆军、空军等。，作为其政府客户，他们利用Palantir的软件来解决从国防和情报收集到改善退伍军人患者护理的所有问题。此外，Palantir的商业软件应用程序与政府业务一样灵活。该公司的客户包括L3Harris(LHX)、空客(OTCPK：EADSF)、法拉利(RACE)、力拓(RIO)等众多企业，改善从制造到采矿的一切。仅此一点就向投资者展示了利用数据的力量以及Palantir迈向未来的机会。</blockquote>As a result of such a promising and dynamic product, the company&#39;s operational growth and financial health have been firing on all cylinders.In 2021Q3, Palantir reported revenue of $392 million, which was 36% growth year-over-year while the customer count grew even faster at 46%. I believe customer growth promises future revenue growth because it takes months to years for revenue to meaningfully materialize, so the fact that the customer growth grew even faster than the revenue growth was significant. Further, adjusted free cash flow turned positive to $119 million compared to -$53 million 2020Q3. The adjusted operating margins continued to be at 30% while the adjusted gross margin was at an impressive 82%. The company, in simple words, is showing growth and improving operations.<blockquote>由于有了如此有前途和充满活力的产品，该公司的运营增长和财务健康状况一直在全速运转。2021年第三季度，Palantir报告收入为3.92亿美元，同比增长36%，而客户数量增长更快，达到46%。我相信客户增长预示着未来的收入增长，因为收入需要几个月到几年的时间才能有意义地实现，因此客户增长甚至快于收入增长的事实意义重大。此外，调整后的自由现金流转为正值，达到1.19亿美元，而2020年第三季度为-5300万美元。调整后营业利润率继续保持在30%，而调整后毛利率达到令人印象深刻的82%。简而言之，该公司正在显示增长并改善运营。</blockquote>Stock-Based Compensation<blockquote>股票薪酬</blockquote>Despite the promising fundamental thesis and top-line growth that the company has been showing, I do not believe Palantir stock is a buy at the moment because of massive SBC. The company has been massively diluting its shareholder base through absurd SBC citing that they need to attract talent, which may be true to some extent. As the chart below shows, since the IPO on September 30th, 2020, the company&#39;s outstanding shares increased from about 900 million to 1.964 billion, which is over 100% dilution. When calculating the dilution from the start of 2021 at 1.8 billion shares, the company has diluted shareholders by 10% in 2021 alone. I think this is simply absurd and shows the unfriendly attitude of the management towards its shareholder.<blockquote>尽管该公司一直表现出充满希望的基本面和营收增长，但我认为Palantir股票目前不值得买入，因为SBC庞大。该公司一直在通过荒谬的SBC大规模稀释其股东基础，理由是他们需要吸引人才，这在某种程度上可能是真的。如下图所示，自2020年9月30日IPO以来，该公司的流通股从约9亿股增加到19.64亿股，稀释超过100%。当计算2021年初的18亿股稀释时，该公司仅在2021年就将股东稀释了10%。我认为这简直是荒谬的，显示了管理层对其股东的不友好态度。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39d58178a2c717516f346622b9a5d70a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data by YCharts.Chart created by author using YCharts from Seeking Alpha<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供。作者使用Seeking Alpha中的YCharts创建的图表</blockquote>To better understand how serious the dilution or the SBC is, I created a chart below showing the stock-based compensation data throughout 2021. As you can see in the chart below, SBC consistently represented over 50% of the company&#39;s revenue. It is the biggest cost for the company, and it has been the reason why the company has been reporting a net loss.<blockquote>为了更好地了解稀释或SBC的严重程度，我创建了下面的图表，显示了2021年全年基于股票的薪酬数据。如下图所示，SBC始终占公司收入的50%以上。这是该公司最大的成本，也是该公司一直报告净亏损的原因。</blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eef22cb497a81858cdd2c8d65756280\" tg-width=\"915\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Chart created by author using Source 1, Source 2, and Source 3<blockquote>作者使用源1、源2和源3创建的图表</blockquote>SBC is a great way to reward employees and attract talent in the market. However, Palantir, in my opinion, has been degrading shareholder value due to excessive SBC. Thus, until either the SBC shows a decreasing trend or the SBC becomes irrelevantly small in comparison to the revenue, I believe investors should think twice before investing in Palantir.<blockquote>SBC是奖励员工和吸引市场人才的好方法。然而，在我看来，Palantir由于SBC过多而降低了股东价值。因此，在SBC显示出下降趋势或SBC与收入相比变得微不足道之前，我认为投资者在投资Palantir之前应该三思而后行。</blockquote>Financials and Valuation<blockquote>财务和估值</blockquote>Unlike valuations, I believe the financial health of Palantir&#39;s balance sheet is great. The company currently has about $2.3 billion in cash with about $3.2 billion in total assets while the total liability stood at only $987 million putting total liability to asset ratio (L/A) at 43%. Further, because the company generated about $240 million during operation with negligible long-term debt, I believe the financial situation of Palantir is great.<blockquote>与估值不同，我相信Palantir资产负债表的财务健康状况非常好。该公司目前拥有约23亿美元现金，总资产约32亿美元，而总负债仅为9.87亿美元，总资产负债率(L/A)为43%。此外，由于该公司在运营期间产生了约2.4亿美元的长期债务可以忽略不计，因此我相信Palantir的财务状况非常好。</blockquote>On the other hand, Palantir&#39;s valuation is slightly questionable. The company has a market capitalization of about $37 billion dollars today. The company has a high price to sales ratio of about 28 with an expected forward price to earnings ratio of about 120. It is true that the company&#39;s business is high margin and crucial, but considering the SBC and today&#39;s economic conditions, I believe this valuation may be too high. Unlike in most of 2020 and 2021, the Federal Reserve is ending the expansionary policy. Instead, they are expecting to finish tapering by March of 2022 and raise rates possible in March, which will effectively raise long-term treasury rates and decrease the investment in the stock market. Therefore, a higher valuation might have been justified in the previous 2 years, but going into 2022, I believe a higher valuation may result in either contraction or range-bound trading for the time being.<blockquote>另一方面，Palantir的估值略有问题。该公司目前的市值约为370亿美元。该公司的市销率很高，约为28，预期远期市盈率约为120。诚然，该公司的业务利润率高且至关重要，但考虑到SBC和当今的经济状况，我认为这个估值可能过高。与2020年和2021年的大部分时间不同，美联储正在结束扩张性政策。相反，他们预计将在2022年3月之前完成缩减规模，并可能在3月加息，这将有效提高长期国债利率并减少对股市的投资。因此，在前两年，较高的估值可能是合理的，但进入2022年，我认为较高的估值可能会暂时导致收缩或区间交易。</blockquote>Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote>Palantir is a unique company and a perfect example of a great company but a bad stock. I truly believe in the power and the potential of Palantir&#39;s software. It can be applied in almost any industry from healthcare to defense to manufacturing. However, the company&#39;s excessive stock-based compensation and valuation hesitate me. The company has been justifying its high stock-based compensation without showing signs of stopping, and I believe this is just taking advantage of its shareholders by diluting their value. Therefore, I believe it is better to wait until stock-based compensation is either showing a decreasing trend or becoming a smaller portion of the revenue due to Palantir&#39;s continued growth.<blockquote>Palantir是一家独特的公司，也是一家伟大公司但却是一只糟糕股票的完美例子。我真的相信Palantir软件的力量和潜力。它几乎可以应用于任何行业，从医疗保健到国防再到制造业。然而，公司过高的股票薪酬和估值让我犹豫不决。该公司一直在证明其高额股票薪酬的合理性，而且没有停止的迹象，我相信这只是通过稀释股东的价值来利用股东。因此，我认为最好等到基于股票的薪酬要么呈下降趋势，要么由于Palantir的持续增长而成为收入的一小部分。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478236-palantir-wait-before-buying-pltr-stock\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478236-palantir-wait-before-buying-pltr-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198431360","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has immense opportunity as the world seeks to harness the power of the data.The company has great software that delivers a sticky product, high margin, and a near-ubiquitous application to its service.However, due to the absurd stock-based compensation and a high valuation, I believe it is better to wait a little more before buying Palantir.Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty ImagesIntroduction and ThesisOur future is inevitably data.Since the age of the internet, digitalization in all aspects of our society has been ongoing creating massive amounts of data. In the future, the one that can harness this data will be miles ahead of their competitors, so the ability to process this massive data is expected to be extremely valuable.Palantir (PLTR) is a company building \"software that empowers organizations to effectively integrate their data, decisions, and operations,\" or in other words, Plantar is the company that is at the forefront of harnessing the power of data to solve enterprise-level extremely complex problems. Thus, being a leader in this industry makes the company's fundamentals and vision extremely attractive; however, I believe it is better for investors to wait for the time being before investing in Palantir. The economic policies and the market sentiments are moving away from the expansionary policy potentially opening up the possibility for further consolidation in Palantir stocks. Further, the massive amounts of stock-based compensation (SBC) that the company is justifying are unfriendly to shareholders. I think it is better for either the company to reduce SBC or wait until the revenue growth makes SBC a smaller part of the overall revenue.FundamentalsBefore talking about the absurd valuation and the SBC, I would like to point out the marvelous business that Palantir has briefly pointed out that the only problem that the company or the stock has is its SBC and valuation.Palantir's business is beautiful; it can be applied to governments and commercial customers in any industry. The company has the National Institute of Health, Department of Veteran Affairs, Army, Air Force, and etc., as its government customers who utilize Palantir's software to tackle everything from defense and intelligence gathering to improving veteran patient cares. Further, Palantir's commercial software applications are as flexible as the government business. The company has numerous enterprises as its customers including L3Harris (LHX), Airbus (OTCPK:EADSF), Ferrari (RACE), Rio Tinto (RIO), and etc. improving everything from manufacturing to mining. This alone shows investors the power of harnessing the data and the opportunity Palantir has moving forward into the future.As a result of such a promising and dynamic product, the company's operational growth and financial health have been firing on all cylinders.In 2021Q3, Palantir reported revenue of $392 million, which was 36% growth year-over-year while the customer count grew even faster at 46%. I believe customer growth promises future revenue growth because it takes months to years for revenue to meaningfully materialize, so the fact that the customer growth grew even faster than the revenue growth was significant. Further, adjusted free cash flow turned positive to $119 million compared to -$53 million 2020Q3. The adjusted operating margins continued to be at 30% while the adjusted gross margin was at an impressive 82%. The company, in simple words, is showing growth and improving operations.Stock-Based CompensationDespite the promising fundamental thesis and top-line growth that the company has been showing, I do not believe Palantir stock is a buy at the moment because of massive SBC. The company has been massively diluting its shareholder base through absurd SBC citing that they need to attract talent, which may be true to some extent. As the chart below shows, since the IPO on September 30th, 2020, the company's outstanding shares increased from about 900 million to 1.964 billion, which is over 100% dilution. When calculating the dilution from the start of 2021 at 1.8 billion shares, the company has diluted shareholders by 10% in 2021 alone. I think this is simply absurd and shows the unfriendly attitude of the management towards its shareholder.Data by YCharts.Chart created by author using YCharts from Seeking AlphaTo better understand how serious the dilution or the SBC is, I created a chart below showing the stock-based compensation data throughout 2021. As you can see in the chart below, SBC consistently represented over 50% of the company's revenue. It is the biggest cost for the company, and it has been the reason why the company has been reporting a net loss.Chart created by author using Source 1, Source 2, and Source 3SBC is a great way to reward employees and attract talent in the market. However, Palantir, in my opinion, has been degrading shareholder value due to excessive SBC. Thus, until either the SBC shows a decreasing trend or the SBC becomes irrelevantly small in comparison to the revenue, I believe investors should think twice before investing in Palantir.Financials and ValuationUnlike valuations, I believe the financial health of Palantir's balance sheet is great. The company currently has about $2.3 billion in cash with about $3.2 billion in total assets while the total liability stood at only $987 million putting total liability to asset ratio (L/A) at 43%. Further, because the company generated about $240 million during operation with negligible long-term debt, I believe the financial situation of Palantir is great.On the other hand, Palantir's valuation is slightly questionable. The company has a market capitalization of about $37 billion dollars today. The company has a high price to sales ratio of about 28 with an expected forward price to earnings ratio of about 120. It is true that the company's business is high margin and crucial, but considering the SBC and today's economic conditions, I believe this valuation may be too high. Unlike in most of 2020 and 2021, the Federal Reserve is ending the expansionary policy. Instead, they are expecting to finish tapering by March of 2022 and raise rates possible in March, which will effectively raise long-term treasury rates and decrease the investment in the stock market. Therefore, a higher valuation might have been justified in the previous 2 years, but going into 2022, I believe a higher valuation may result in either contraction or range-bound trading for the time being.SummaryPalantir is a unique company and a perfect example of a great company but a bad stock. I truly believe in the power and the potential of Palantir's software. It can be applied in almost any industry from healthcare to defense to manufacturing. However, the company's excessive stock-based compensation and valuation hesitate me. The company has been justifying its high stock-based compensation without showing signs of stopping, and I believe this is just taking advantage of its shareholders by diluting their value. Therefore, I believe it is better to wait until stock-based compensation is either showing a decreasing trend or becoming a smaller portion of the revenue due to Palantir's continued growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7163177,"gmtCreate":1641597860187,"gmtModify":1641597860225,"authorId":3571137160288122,"author":{"id":3571137160288122,"idStr":"3571137160288122","authorId":3571137160288122,"name":"AnthonyC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":695479013,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Growth stocks consolidation Phase ","text":"Growth stocks consolidation Phase ","html":"Growth stocks consolidation Phase "}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}