标普500已是“高处不胜寒”！美股回调还远吗？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

标普500已是“高处不胜寒”！美股回调还远吗？

智通财经2021-08-09

总体而言，美联储减码讨论、通胀担忧、利润率压力和政府和解法案中企业税上调等因素都可能引发美股市场波动。上周美股再度延续强势表现，道指和标普500指数再创记录高位。但“高处不胜寒”，美联储、通胀和估值都可能成为引发市场调整的导火线。智通财经APP注意到，标准普尔500指数成份股中有很大一部分公司的利润超过了华尔街的预期，但股价几乎没有变动。这是美国股市连续第二个季度对财报反应平淡，似乎加剧了...

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珊珊来驰
·2021-08-10
好
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Diaschy
·2021-08-10
是
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2
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红金鱼辣椒
·2021-08-10
拭目以待!
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3
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- jiann85:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-10
  回复
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- 珊珊来驰:
  好
  2021-08-10
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- nicoleyang:
  期待熊市
  2021-08-17
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kiore
·2021-08-09
有点意思。
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- 红金鱼辣椒:
  [微笑]
  2021-08-10
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Cyndilim93
·2021-08-09
[呆住]
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应何文
·2021-08-09
期待
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- zh2021:
  [嘘]
  2021-08-09
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Is the correction of US stocks far away?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe5e5dab81b7e5792e4fd8d7b526d7be","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9},"content_text":"总体而言，美联储减码讨论、通胀担忧、利润率压力和政府和解法案中企业税上调等因素都可能引发美股市场波动。\n\n上周美股再度延续强势表现，道指和标普500指数再创记录高位。但“高处不胜寒”，美联储、通胀和估值都可能成为引发市场调整的导火线。\n智通财经APP注意到，标准普尔500指数成份股中有很大一部分公司的利润超过了华尔街的预期，但股价几乎没有变动。这是美国股市连续第二个季度对财报反应平淡，似乎加剧了美国股市在今年上涨18%后将出现回调的情况。\n此外，德尔塔变异病毒持续升级，华尔街银行也在推迟员工重返办公室的计划。\n美国银行股票策略师吉尔·凯里·霍尔(Jill Carey Hall)周五接受采访时表示：“财报季表明，许多好消息已经被消化。业绩超预期的公司的表现并不太好。”\n事实上，包括亚马逊在内的很多科技股实际上业绩都算强劲，但是最近股价都出现了一定程度的跌势。\n数据显示，标准普尔500指数85%的成分股本季度盈利超过预期。但是平均而言，其股票在盈利后的第二天仅上涨0.2%。这与第一季度的类似趋势相呼应，当时股市在取得良好业绩后平均下跌0.1%。\n\n尽管标普500指数不断升至新高，但是估值泡沫、通胀飙升、刺激减码、疫情肆虐似乎并未带来投资者的恐慌情绪，市场的关注点一直集中在对企业继续创造更大利润和低利率的预期上。\n不过华尔街机构对未来美股市场的走向分歧却在加大。\n如高盛仍然看好美国股市的上涨。考虑到这两个因素，该行上周上调了标准普尔500指数的年终目标。其策略师大卫·科斯汀(David Kostin)预测该指数将在2021年收于4700点，这意味着比周五收盘价上涨近6%，并较此前的4300点上涨400点。\n高盛看好的理由在于：“随着公司成功管理成本，以及高利润科技公司在标普500指数中占据更大份额，预计收入增长将更强劲，税前利润率将更大。”\n此外，CIBC Private Wealth的首席投资官大卫·多纳贝迪安(David Donabedian)表示，“市场对业绩的冷淡反应并不值得担忧。预计今年年底股市仍可能高于当前水平，但周期性因素将主导经济扩张。经济增长将高于趋势，不仅到今年年底，到2022年也是如此。”\n然而，Bloomberg Intelligence首席股票策略师吉娜·马丁·亚当斯(Gina Martin Adams)表示：“当估值如此昂贵时，盈利确实需要提高。即便科技公司的收入确实增加了，但部分公司的预期并不是那么乐观，如此前苹果等公司警告称，增长将放缓。”\n巴克莱持中性观点，认为今年下半年美股的回报率可能有限，因为期权市场透露出不确定性，随着美股创下历史高位，对冲市场风险的衍生品交易规模也在接近创纪录水平。美银美林7月基金经理调查显示，机构将现金头寸从3.9%上调至4.1%，也反映出了一定谨慎心理。\n花旗和美银则明确看空未来美股的走势，美联储、通胀和估值都可能成为引发市场调整的导火线。花旗首席美股策略师列夫科维奇(TobiasLevkovich)预计，标普500指数到年底将下跌10%，跌势最早将从下个月开始。“自2008年以来，全球央行一直在压制利率。这表明他们对长期可持续增长信心不足。美国是一个成长股比重很大的市场。如果你认为债券收益率将走高，那么成长股就会受到影响。总体而言，美联储减码讨论、通胀担忧、利润率压力和政府和解法案中企业税上调等因素都可能引发波动。”\n美银更为悲观，预期美股年末将下跌14%，标普500指数年底时将在3800点。如美银首席策略师霍尔(JillCareyHall)上周五表示，“今年很多好消息已经被市场消化，指数的市盈率已经非常高了。我们追踪的情绪指标越来越看涨，信心指数非常接近卖出信号。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":896021079,"gmtCreate":1628544827591,"gmtModify":1633746381013,"author":{"id":"4091564422296920","authorId":"4091564422296920","name":"珊珊来驰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258644aa2e8858deb6c2c8c172bdbff9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896021079","repostId":1188917896,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":896020917,"gmtCreate":1628544140239,"gmtModify":1633746384200,"author":{"id":"3582212677594923","authorId":"3582212677594923","name":"Diaschy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023e36d76d8f4434c4ca55ea9d316933","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"是","listText":"是","text":"是","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896020917","repostId":1188917896,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":896033217,"gmtCreate":1628528920739,"gmtModify":1633746407342,"author":{"id":"4090706723019730","authorId":"4090706723019730","name":"红金鱼辣椒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c95079e353131bb0c2ebda843413a5d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"拭目以待!","listText":"拭目以待!","text":"拭目以待!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896033217","repostId":1188917896,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5475303,"gmtCreate":1628544217336,"gmtModify":1635155950674,"authorId":3517706790212686,"author":{"id":3517706790212686,"authorId":3517706790212686,"name":"jiann85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":896033217,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"},{"id":5475325,"gmtCreate":1628544841030,"gmtModify":1635155948293,"authorId":4091564422296920,"author":{"id":4091564422296920,"authorId":4091564422296920,"name":"珊珊来驰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/258644aa2e8858deb6c2c8c172bdbff9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":896033217,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好","text":"好","html":"好"},{"id":5551939,"gmtCreate":1629171368616,"gmtModify":1635149708590,"authorId":4089185159488720,"author":{"id":4089185159488720,"authorId":4089185159488720,"name":"nicoleyang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf62f6a331d3ca4c12bf3c7996087e03","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":896033217,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"期待熊市","text":"期待熊市","html":"期待熊市"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":898344685,"gmtCreate":1628475476747,"gmtModify":1631893282657,"author":{"id":"3582171604309015","authorId":"3582171604309015","name":"kiore","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a6f2a8d1bdc6ebac6482efcbce8a76b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"有点意思。","listText":"有点意思。","text":"有点意思。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898344685","repostId":1188917896,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5474959,"gmtCreate":1628528961223,"gmtModify":1631893282662,"authorId":4090706723019730,"author":{"id":4090706723019730,"authorId":4090706723019730,"name":"红金鱼辣椒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c95079e353131bb0c2ebda843413a5d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":898344685,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":898325817,"gmtCreate":1628474624439,"gmtModify":1631890142651,"author":{"id":"3586928132531672","authorId":"3586928132531672","name":"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