Goldman Says "Don't Buy This Dip" And Here's Why..._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Goldman Says "Don't Buy This Dip" And Here's Why...

zerohedge2021-07-20

At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest ...

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327

beankim
·2021-07-22
So wait?
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3
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- Sinktel:
  yes wait until they finished buying
  2021-07-23
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Meshaarias72
·2021-07-21
Like n comment pls
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点赞
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littlespazo
·2021-07-21
Wow lucky I read this article..are the rest of you going to sell?
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1
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WinnerSG
·2021-07-21
Be careful out there!
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3
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- ccsq:
  All dip?
  2021-07-21
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987ce65
·2021-07-21
Hodl
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1
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- SSVC:
  Ok
  2021-07-21
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Rajeshd2331
·2021-07-21
Margin buyer
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1
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LimLS
·2021-07-21
Too much noise out there that hinder our judgement. Skip the news that talks about daily market, and focus on bigger events that's coming like the FOMC meeting and debt ceiling during end July
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- RYukyo:
  agree
  2021-07-21
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- 56a3dd2f:
  😊👍
  2021-07-22
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STKG
·2021-07-21
Many noises out there.
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4
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- LimLS:
  Too much noise nowadays. Best to just not follow any finance news talks about stock market. Just follow the general economic news and the company earnings report and relevant news. That's enough.
  2021-07-21
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RichyRick
·2021-07-21
Trade withthin your means
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7
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Lifestyle
·2021-07-21
They don’t want us to buy so that they can buy at low 😩
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4
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DMC8
·2021-07-21
Awesome 😎
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4
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- arachno73:
  Like and comment back please. Thanks.
  2021-07-21
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dandroid
·2021-07-21
Wow
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1
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XiuJ
·2021-07-21
Like please
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3
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- JeremyKok:
  hi. please like and comment back. thank you.
  2021-07-21
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- XiuJ:
  Ok
  2021-07-21
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Sphere
·2021-07-21
Rubbish
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2
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- Sphere:
  Up
  2021-07-21
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AnneSeow
·2021-07-21
Bullet
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13
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- SamLim:
  👍
  2021-07-21
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JoelSeah
·2021-07-21
Make your own judgement
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2
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sook
·2021-07-21
It looks unpredictable. Depends on the virus and how people are responding. I think economists can't predict that
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5
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Gaga71
·2021-07-21
Mostly lead by market sentiment guided by TA
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4
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- sook:
  agreed
  2021-07-21
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- PSYCHO82:
  Agreed
  2021-07-21
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我i168
·2021-07-21
Market has spoken...the opposite! [Happy] [Cool]
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6
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- Gaga71:
  TradE with caution
  2021-07-21
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replaygoh
·2021-07-21
okok
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1
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Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":176799227,"gmtCreate":1626914734069,"gmtModify":1633769823689,"author":{"id":"3568042901804000","authorId":"3568042901804000","name":"beankim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e86bf0ae7dd84473464d6af842304eb","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}],"idStr":"3568042901804000","authorIdStr":"3568042901804000"},"htmlText":"So wait?&nbsp;","listText":"So wait?&nbsp;","text":"So wait?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176799227","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5305308,"gmtCreate":1627037394894,"gmtModify":1635223049531,"authorId":3553486312989116,"author":{"id":3553486312989116,"idStr":"3553486312989116","authorId":3553486312989116,"name":"Sinktel","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dded9bdf22ca014f2486ae356ebd46bb","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":176799227,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes wait until they finished buying","text":"yes wait until they finished buying","html":"yes wait until they finished buying"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":176178933,"gmtCreate":1626874627322,"gmtModify":1633770230338,"author":{"id":"3577781617271173","authorId":"3577781617271173","name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3577781617271173","authorIdStr":"3577781617271173"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176178933","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178792039,"gmtCreate":1626835747921,"gmtModify":1633770535544,"author":{"id":"3576806695783495","authorId":"3576806695783495","name":"littlespazo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57af1ce5bfc456006c8810d511b368a9","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}],"idStr":"3576806695783495","authorIdStr":"3576806695783495"},"htmlText":"Wow lucky I read this article..are the rest of you going to sell?","listText":"Wow lucky I read this article..are the rest of you going to sell?","text":"Wow lucky I read this article..are the rest of you going to sell?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178792039","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178438393,"gmtCreate":1626831017412,"gmtModify":1631891513035,"author":{"id":"3585538024677143","authorId":"3585538024677143","name":"WinnerSG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f748cf37b7a34ee47884ee19e105d382","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3585538024677143","authorIdStr":"3585538024677143"},"htmlText":"Be careful out there!&nbsp;","listText":"Be careful out there!&nbsp;","text":"Be careful out there!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178438393","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5280418,"gmtCreate":1626845312562,"gmtModify":1631891513032,"authorId":3567441078926935,"author":{"id":3567441078926935,"idStr":"3567441078926935","authorId":3567441078926935,"name":"ccsq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d235945db264d135b221bb3b41076cfe","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178438393,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"All dip?","text":"All dip?","html":"All dip?"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178430197,"gmtCreate":1626830870619,"gmtModify":1633770603815,"author":{"id":"3582709856792743","authorId":"3582709856792743","name":"987ce65","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3582709856792743","authorIdStr":"3582709856792743"},"htmlText":"Hodl","listText":"Hodl","text":"Hodl","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178430197","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5278551,"gmtCreate":1626831142165,"gmtModify":1635224859350,"authorId":3574906731000207,"author":{"id":3574906731000207,"idStr":"3574906731000207","authorId":3574906731000207,"name":"SSVC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/545a5ea462ff4ac7cc100bd3d8d97f72","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178430197,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178498634,"gmtCreate":1626830611728,"gmtModify":1633770609208,"author":{"id":"3578013531356504","authorId":"3578013531356504","name":"Rajeshd2331","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d24763ae4b9d3ceea7d3a7079877e10","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}],"idStr":"3578013531356504","authorIdStr":"3578013531356504"},"htmlText":"Margin buyer&nbsp;","listText":"Margin buyer&nbsp;","text":"Margin buyer","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178498634","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178546081,"gmtCreate":1626829203243,"gmtModify":1633770633566,"author":{"id":"3572923586954779","authorId":"3572923586954779","name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorIdStr":"3572923586954779"},"htmlText":"Too much noise out there that hinder our judgement. Skip the news that talks about daily market, and focus on bigger events that's coming like the FOMC meeting and debt ceiling during end July","listText":"Too much noise out there that hinder our judgement. Skip the news that talks about daily market, and focus on bigger events that's coming like the FOMC meeting and debt ceiling during end July","text":"Too much noise out there that hinder our judgement. Skip the news that talks about daily market, and focus on bigger events that's coming like the FOMC meeting and debt ceiling during end July","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178546081","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5278367,"gmtCreate":1626830165287,"gmtModify":1635224873225,"authorId":3580445955391890,"author":{"id":3580445955391890,"idStr":"3580445955391890","authorId":3580445955391890,"name":"RYukyo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/390194fd6f59520ee0b7649e7fabb953","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178546081,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"agree","text":"agree","html":"agree"},{"id":5288998,"gmtCreate":1626916691420,"gmtModify":1635224110514,"authorId":3563664364598207,"author":{"id":3563664364598207,"idStr":"3563664364598207","authorId":3563664364598207,"name":"56a3dd2f","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178546081,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😊👍","text":"😊👍","html":"😊👍"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178550485,"gmtCreate":1626828574847,"gmtModify":1633770645252,"author":{"id":"3586131488444401","authorId":"3586131488444401","name":"STKG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730c2482b43ac1909a601868b378a6e4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3586131488444401","authorIdStr":"3586131488444401"},"htmlText":"Many noises out there.&nbsp;","listText":"Many noises out there.&nbsp;","text":"Many noises out there.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178550485","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5278133,"gmtCreate":1626828924283,"gmtModify":1635224892701,"authorId":3572923586954779,"author":{"id":3572923586954779,"idStr":"3572923586954779","authorId":3572923586954779,"name":"LimLS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217b03b0c4808fb537070ba4e8f9d83f","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178550485,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Too much noise nowadays. Best to just not follow any finance news talks about stock market. Just follow the general economic news and the company earnings report and relevant news. That's enough.","text":"Too much noise nowadays. Best to just not follow any finance news talks about stock market. Just follow the general economic news and the company earnings report and relevant news. That's enough.","html":"Too much noise nowadays. Best to just not follow any finance news talks about stock market. Just follow the general economic news and the company earnings report and relevant news. That's enough."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178277782,"gmtCreate":1626825858746,"gmtModify":1633770709475,"author":{"id":"3574713327400822","authorId":"3574713327400822","name":"RichyRick","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b86ee481aaeabbd2348ddf829e3a56fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574713327400822","authorIdStr":"3574713327400822"},"htmlText":"Trade withthin your means&nbsp;","listText":"Trade withthin your means&nbsp;","text":"Trade withthin your means","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178277782","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178247202,"gmtCreate":1626825544306,"gmtModify":1626825544306,"author":{"id":"3577580366301047","authorId":"3577580366301047","name":"Lifestyle","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d6b8a93bb67c48d769484626037d6e","vip":1,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[{"categoryType":1104,"badgeId":"99a38ff64bfd44f891fd016771fc8f64-1","name":"超级披露者","description":"在交易分享中开启超级披露","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e97d213ed3e4f4820224f1366d402f","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/802f4014829adb4e63332fc230b97e42","isScarce":1,"plateColors":{"bgColor":{"dark":"#2f2a1f","tint":"#fcf6e5"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#dea95e","tint":"#885600"}},"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLinkType":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/forapp/star-investor","redirectLinkValidityFrom":1776816000000,"redirectLinkValidityTo":2156198400000,"sortingWeight":0,"wearable":1}],"idStr":"3577580366301047","authorIdStr":"3577580366301047"},"htmlText":"They don’t want us to buy so that they can buy at low 😩","listText":"They don’t want us to buy so that they can buy at low 😩","text":"They don’t want us to buy so that they can buy at low 😩","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178247202","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178228463,"gmtCreate":1626824555952,"gmtModify":1633770741601,"author":{"id":"3579992296424941","authorId":"3579992296424941","name":"DMC8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65aa8f5f6299558ce2ab36482793f750","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3579992296424941","authorIdStr":"3579992296424941"},"htmlText":"Awesome 😎&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome 😎&nbsp;","text":"Awesome 😎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178228463","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5277199,"gmtCreate":1626824963369,"gmtModify":1635224979139,"authorId":3581334744371071,"author":{"id":3581334744371071,"idStr":"3581334744371071","authorId":3581334744371071,"name":"arachno73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/863498a76b71cd34c7beeb14e7e8e66f","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178228463,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like and comment back please. Thanks.","text":"Like and comment back please. Thanks.","html":"Like and comment back please. Thanks."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178286335,"gmtCreate":1626823766127,"gmtModify":1631891604396,"author":{"id":"3586760300834715","authorId":"3586760300834715","name":"dandroid","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3586760300834715","authorIdStr":"3586760300834715"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178286335","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178239990,"gmtCreate":1626822877010,"gmtModify":1633770783684,"author":{"id":"3582013193139368","authorId":"3582013193139368","name":"XiuJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2679b64d21b553ca13b45b2f03e15f76","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3582013193139368","authorIdStr":"3582013193139368"},"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178239990","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276925,"gmtCreate":1626823729495,"gmtModify":1635225004390,"authorId":3567307840510045,"author":{"id":3567307840510045,"idStr":"3567307840510045","authorId":3567307840510045,"name":"JeremyKok","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01b03a485f83b6b2615fad8ac9b87bf4","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178239990,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","text":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you.","html":"hi. please like and comment back. thank you."},{"id":5282326,"gmtCreate":1626865205385,"gmtModify":1635224582713,"authorId":3582013193139368,"author":{"id":3582013193139368,"idStr":"3582013193139368","authorId":3582013193139368,"name":"XiuJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2679b64d21b553ca13b45b2f03e15f76","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178239990,"type":1,"supId":5276925,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178205238,"gmtCreate":1626822261324,"gmtModify":1633770795277,"author":{"id":"3573432013960035","authorId":"3573432013960035","name":"Sphere","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3573432013960035","authorIdStr":"3573432013960035"},"htmlText":"Rubbish","listText":"Rubbish","text":"Rubbish","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178205238","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276539,"gmtCreate":1626822272594,"gmtModify":1635225040260,"authorId":3573432013960035,"author":{"id":3573432013960035,"idStr":"3573432013960035","authorId":3573432013960035,"name":"Sphere","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178205238,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Up","text":"Up","html":"Up"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178203885,"gmtCreate":1626821939947,"gmtModify":1631889330224,"author":{"id":"3567947484816361","authorId":"3567947484816361","name":"AnneSeow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af241d9fa0eaef494f7eacd71d4e78e7","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3567947484816361","authorIdStr":"3567947484816361"},"htmlText":"Bullet","listText":"Bullet","text":"Bullet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178203885","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5278657,"gmtCreate":1626831697491,"gmtModify":1631889330224,"authorId":3564612867752023,"author":{"id":3564612867752023,"idStr":"3564612867752023","authorId":3564612867752023,"name":"SamLim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79cf73cb8f8b744900d546f6d85152ba","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178203885,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178678073,"gmtCreate":1626821384092,"gmtModify":1633770806934,"author":{"id":"3585452666972742","authorId":"3585452666972742","name":"JoelSeah","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7209ed7c109a0f0d11e650747fe83336","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3585452666972742","authorIdStr":"3585452666972742"},"htmlText":"Make your own judgement","listText":"Make your own judgement","text":"Make your own judgement","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178678073","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178643289,"gmtCreate":1626820617541,"gmtModify":1633770817866,"author":{"id":"3582778215220668","authorId":"3582778215220668","name":"sook","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3582778215220668","authorIdStr":"3582778215220668"},"htmlText":"It looks unpredictable. Depends on the virus and how people are responding. I think economists can't predict that&nbsp;","listText":"It looks unpredictable. Depends on the virus and how people are responding. I think economists can't predict that&nbsp;","text":"It looks unpredictable. Depends on the virus and how people are responding. I think economists can't predict that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178643289","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178656902,"gmtCreate":1626820105806,"gmtModify":1633770824207,"author":{"id":"3579082097230100","authorId":"3579082097230100","name":"Gaga71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02afa88b95dc30f4a60767c18f9e2f39","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3579082097230100","authorIdStr":"3579082097230100"},"htmlText":"Mostly lead by market sentiment guided by TA","listText":"Mostly lead by market sentiment guided by TA","text":"Mostly lead by market sentiment guided by TA","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178656902","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276274,"gmtCreate":1626820629689,"gmtModify":1635225062961,"authorId":3582778215220668,"author":{"id":3582778215220668,"idStr":"3582778215220668","authorId":3582778215220668,"name":"sook","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178656902,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"agreed","text":"agreed","html":"agreed"},{"id":5276474,"gmtCreate":1626821927011,"gmtModify":1635225045798,"authorId":3584840087767846,"author":{"id":3584840087767846,"idStr":"3584840087767846","authorId":3584840087767846,"name":"PSYCHO82","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7ab6b697c630c3b99e18227fdd119f4","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178656902,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Agreed","text":"Agreed","html":"Agreed"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178623492,"gmtCreate":1626819047316,"gmtModify":1626819047316,"author":{"id":"3563873670221480","authorId":"3563873670221480","name":"我i168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b2d0551b5ab028c13ab35747c4df8c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3563873670221480","authorIdStr":"3563873670221480"},"htmlText":"Market has spoken...the opposite! [Happy]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Market has spoken...the opposite! [Happy]&nbsp;[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Market has spoken...the opposite! [Happy] [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178623492","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276207,"gmtCreate":1626820054341,"gmtModify":1635225068790,"authorId":3579082097230100,"author":{"id":3579082097230100,"idStr":"3579082097230100","authorId":3579082097230100,"name":"Gaga71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02afa88b95dc30f4a60767c18f9e2f39","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":178623492,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"TradE with caution","text":"TradE with caution","html":"TradE with caution"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178623188,"gmtCreate":1626819004344,"gmtModify":1633770835515,"author":{"id":"3582963095283492","authorId":"3582963095283492","name":"replaygoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d47b21291424a3d55039334a8de5cdb9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3582963095283492","authorIdStr":"3582963095283492"},"htmlText":"okok","listText":"okok","text":"okok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178623188","repostId":1188133258,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188133258","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626787650,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188133258?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188133258","media":"zerohedge","summary":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-we","content":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Says \"Don't Buy This Dip\" And Here's Why...<blockquote>高盛说“不要在这个低点买入”，原因如下……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nzerohedge2021-07-20 21:27\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAt the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...<blockquote>本月初，高盛交易员约翰·弗拉德 (John Flood) 正确地表示，我们正在进入一年中最好的两周季节性时期，本月的前 18 天传统上是市场最强劲的时期……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> ... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.<blockquote>...随后，人们预测空头将不得不回补，而在此期间，我们看到 16 个交易日中有 13 个创下历史新高。</blockquote> Of course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&amp;P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.<blockquote>当然，在过去三天里，当标准普尔指数加速下滑时，这一切都崩溃了，最终在周一以可怕的溃败达到高潮，当时收益率暴跌引发了人们对美国经济将直接陷入滞胀崩溃的恐慌。</blockquote> And yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:<blockquote>然而，随着期货价格反弹，交易员们清楚地表现出想要抓住几个月来跌幅最快的一把刀的愿望，我们惊讶地读到，在7月上半月正确预测市场上涨的约翰·弗拉德现在已经完全改变了主意，并在隔夜发布的一份报告中写道：“不要抄底。他解释了原因：</blockquote> I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week). 99% of S&amp;P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period. Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions. And here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:<blockquote>我一直是下跌的买家，但这种波动感觉不同，我正在为本周走弱做好准备。负面的Covid头条新闻正在加速。发行龙头完全打开，这篇文章越来越难从我的座位上放下（在上周与发行相关的一些不稳定的px行动之后）。99% 的标准普尔 500 指数公司将进入下周的回购禁售期，供应端的数量流动仍然不对称（又名 CTA 卖家将赢得这场拉锯战）。上周的收益很好，但没有得到回报（银行）……本周和下周是财报期最繁忙的两周。随着 FAAMG complex 背负着指数的重量，整体市场广度继续消散。对于零售界来说，七月并不是一个有趣的月份（潜在的零售竞标正在消退）。从1年的角度来看，HF长度最近有了很大的进步，但从3年的角度来看，无论是净资产还是总收入，都远高于第50个百分位（这里还有更多的木头要砍）。中美紧张局势加剧之际，机构界继续降低中国 ADR 后滴滴发展的风险。所有人都在关注 2021 年 10 年期国债收益率首次远低于 1.26 的 200dma。没有必要按下紧急按钮，但我计划在接下来的几个会议中耐心买票。以下是10把钥匙看跌正在监测的发展洪水：</blockquote> 1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...<blockquote>1) 周末的新冠疫情头条新闻是我在 2021 年见过的最负面的。以下是让我印象深刻的5个……</blockquote> <ul> <li>U.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC</li> <li>The CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG</li> <li>CDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT</li> <li>First Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)</li> <li>The UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times</li> </ul> 2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.<blockquote><ul><li>上周美国感染人数激增 60% 以上，超过全球 16% 的增幅。前 FDA 局长斯科特·戈特利布 (Scott Gottlieb) 表示，三角洲病例可能被低估了。这位博士警告说，美国“大大低估了”新冠病毒在国内的传播水平。CNBC</li><li>美国疾病控制与预防中心警告称，在全国接种率较低的地区，病例、住院人数和死亡人数都在上升，可能会出现 “未接种疫苗者的大流行”。</li><li>疾病预防控制中心表示，随着新冠统计数据持续恶化，美国其他主要城市可能会效仿洛杉矶，重新实施口罩强制令。FT</li><li>就在奥运会预计开始前几天，首批东京奥运会运动员新冠病毒检测呈阳性（科科·高夫是退出的最引人注目的美国运动员）</li><li>英国表示，无论疫苗接种情况如何，来自法国的旅客都需要隔离10天，这一声明“让假期陷入混乱”。伦敦时报</li></ul>2）这是一个纸党，这个纸越来越难放置。上周，我们对美国的11笔注册交易进行了定价（名义价值30亿美元），本周已经在处理另外18笔交易（名义价值100亿美元）。这在七月下旬尤其值得注意。</blockquote> 3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.<blockquote>3) 第二季度财报发布仅一周，但银行告诉我们预计会出现好转，但不要指望这些好转会得到回报。又名卖方估计仍然太低，仓位仍然拥挤。自摩根大通上周二上午公布大型科技银行收益（基本上全面跑赢）以来，银行指数已下跌 355 个基点。</blockquote> 4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....<blockquote>4）我们正处于企业回购禁售期，这将持续到21年7月23日…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2aaf1e5d45694a097b50a91dbde1c820\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....<blockquote>5）系统流程是不对称的……（又名CTA是上下磁带中的卖家）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bba4d70220e9707ea2844810c1a10b2\" tg-width=\"866\" tg-height=\"381\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....<blockquote>6) 市场广度继续恶化（上个月为 100）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39de9052680301024db46173d0dce29f\" tg-width=\"507\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...<blockquote>7) 又名，如果没有最近 FAAMG 的出色价格走势，市场将会遇到一些麻烦……</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ae0c7eead73ad8dc2ecc63bcbd9e27e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><blockquote></blockquote> 8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT<blockquote>8) 与中国的紧张局势升级，我们看到 ADR 继续去风险化： 白宫指责中国对微软的电子邮件系统进行了大规模黑客攻击，并将组建北约成员国联盟谴责北京的网络活动。</blockquote> 9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....<blockquote>9）零售支持一直在减弱MTD....（GS高零售情绪篮子）....</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91d1bdeccdbb13bda1edf2982fd29b9c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"737\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> 10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....<blockquote>10）1年回顾，基本的L/S定位已经显著进步…….3年回顾，仍然上升…….</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/588f67823e6fabf1df2586491f930477\" tg-width=\"912\" tg-height=\"105\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-dont-buy-dip-and-heres-why?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188133258","content_text":"At the start of the month,Goldman trader John Flood correctly saidthat we are entering the best 2-week seasonal period of the year, with the first 18 days of the month traditionally the strongest period for markets...\n\n... and followed up with apredictionthat shorts will have to cover, which they did during a period in which we saw 13 out of 16 trading days hit new all time highs.\nOf course, it all came crashing down in the last 3 days when the S&P slide accelerated, culminating with a scary rout on Monday when tumbling yields sparked a panic that the US economy is headed straight into a stagflationary crash.\nAnd yet, with futures rebounding and traders clearly showing a desire to catch what has been the fastest falling knife in months, we were surprised to read that the same John Flood who correctly predicted the market ramp in the first half of July, has now flipped completely and in a note published overnight writes \"don't buy this dip.\" He explains why:\n\n I am a consistent buyer of dips but this wobble feels different and I am bracing for a weaker tape this week. Negative Covid headlines are picking up in velocity. Issuance spigots are fully turned on and this paper is getting harder to place from my seat (after some choppy px action related to issuance last week).\n\n\n99% of S&P500 companies are in buyback blackout period into next week and quant flows remain asymmetric on the supply side (AKA CTA sellers will win this tug of war).Earnings last week were great but were not rewarded (banks)...this week and next are the 2 busiest weeks of the earnings period.\n\n\n Overall market breadth continues to dissipate with FAAMG complex carrying the weight of the indices on its back. July has not been a fun month for the retail community (underlying retail bid is fading). HF length has recently come in significantly on a 1 year look back but on a 3 year basis is well above 50th percentile for both nets and grosses (still more wood to chop here). Institutional community continues to cut risk in China ADR’s post DIDI development while U.S. / China tensions rise. All eyes remain 10yr yields well below 200dma of 1.26 for first time in 2021. No need to hit the panic button but I plan on being patient with buy tickets over the next several sessions.\n\nAnd here are the 10 keybearishdevelopments Flood is monitoring:\n1) Covid headlines over the weekend were the most negative that I have seen in 2021. Here are the 5 that stood out to me...\n\nU.S. infections surged more than 60% last week, topping a 16% global increase. Delta cases may be undercounted, former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb said. The Dr. warned that the US is “vastly underestimating” the level of COVID delta spread domestically.CNBC\nThe CDC warns of a “pandemic of the unvaccinated” as cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities rise in those parts of the country with low inoculation rates.BBG\nCDC says other major US cities will probably follow LA and reimpose mask mandates as COVID statistics continue to deteriorate.FT\nFirst Olympic athletes in Tokyo test positive for COVID, just days before the games are expected to commence (Coco Gauff the highest profile U.S. athlete to withdraw)\nThe UK said travelers from France will need to quarantine for 10 days regardless of vaccination status, an announcement that “leaves holidays in disarray”.London Times\n\n2) It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.\n3) Only 1 week into 2Q earnings but banks telling us to expect beats but NOT TO expect these beats to be rewarded. AKA sell sides estimates are still too low and positioning remains crowded. Since JPM kicked of megacap tech bank earnings last Tuesday morning (essentially beats across the board) bank index has shed 355bps.\n4) We are in depths of corporate buyback blackout period and this will run through 7/23/21....\n5) Systematic flows are asymmetric...(AKA CTAs are sellers in a up and down tape)....\n6) Market breadth continues to deteriorate (was at ATH of 100 last month)....\n7) AKA without recent stellar price action on FAAMG the market would be in some trouble...\n\n8) Tensions with China escalating and we see continued derisking in ADRs: The White House is accusing China of perpetrating a massive hack of Microsoft’s email systems and will form a coalition of NATO members to condemn Beijing’s cyber activities.NYT\n9) Retail support has been waning MTD....(GS HIGH RETAIL SENTIMENT BASKET)....\n\n10) On 1 year look back Fundamental L/S positioning has come in significantly....on a 3yr look back still elevated....","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":327,"commentSize":78,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}