美联储真的“转鹰”了吗？市场或许恐慌过头了_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美联储真的“转鹰”了吗？市场或许恐慌过头了

华尔街见闻2021-12-01

鲍威尔的表态，或是在给自己争取政策喘息的空间。接下来的两件大事才会对Taper进程有明确影响：本周五发布的美国就业报告与11月美国CPI数据。在获得美联储主席连任提名一周后，鲍威尔似乎变得令人陌生，但也有分析指出，市场的反应过头了。在11月30日出席美国国会参议院银行委员会的季度听证会时，鲍威尔做出了出人意料的鹰派表态，认为是时候放弃通胀“暂时”这个词了，可能加速完成taper。这表明，加息...

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浮罗交怡小学生
·2021-12-01
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MonkC
·2021-12-01
一句话一个猜测，把原文全部放一起，猜测放最后就行了，搞得好像自己就是鲍威尔一样
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Rocktime
·2021-12-01
还是放原版加翻译吧，翻译好多添加的情绪词引导词
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梅西_9895
·2021-12-01
OK
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斗战胜佛巴菲特
·2021-12-01
但愿是我过虑了
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5
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明月夜几多愁
·2021-12-01
阿鲍，收手吧
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- labro88:
  外面全是韭菜
  2021-12-01
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康康的
·2021-12-01
了
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- 康康的:
  了
  2021-12-01
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mjng
·2021-12-01
学习
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The market may have panicked too much","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ace6f0ef13ffed9047ad3ed4fdffca","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"鲍威尔的表态，或是在给自己争取政策喘息的空间。接下来的两件大事才会对Taper进程有明确影响：本周五发布的美国就业报告与11月美国CPI数据。\n\n在获得美联储主席连任提名一周后，鲍威尔似乎变得令人陌生，但也有分析指出，市场的反应过头了。\n在11月30日出席美国国会参议院银行委员会的季度听证会时，鲍威尔做出了出人意料的鹰派表态，认为是时候放弃通胀“暂时”这个词了，可能加速完成taper。这表明，加息的到来或比市场预期的更早。\n受“新鹰派”鲍威尔与“新变异病毒”Omicron的双重夹击，市场被吓崩了，避险情绪升温：欧美股市齐跌、Moderna跌超4%、原油创20个月最大月跌幅；2年期美债收益率盘中转升、30年期美债收益率跌至今年以来的最低水平，基准10年期欧洲国债周二价格重启涨势。\n\n众多分析师对鲍威尔这一表态也感到出乎意料。\nEvercore ISI 全球政策和央行战略主管 Krishna Guha 在周一表示：\n\n “这是美联储非常突然的转变，这加剧一种感觉，美联储改变其利率政策的步伐将比以往快得多。”\n\n通胀已成为更大的担忧\n自大流行开始以来，鲍威尔就表示，与价格稳定问题相比，美联储更关心的是其双重使命的充分就业问题。然而，周二鲍威尔表示，通胀已成为更大的担忧。\n听证会上鲍威尔认为，是时候取消他和许多其他官员长期以来用来描述不断上升的通胀的“暂时性”一词，他表示：\n\n “现在是时候放弃关于通胀‘暂时性’这个词了。”\n\n听证会的问答环节，他还表示，通胀进一步上升的风险增加，通胀持续高企的威胁也在增加，物价上涨与新冠疫情造成的供应链中断有关：\n\n “我们此前在通胀问题上忽视了供给侧问题的严重性。”\n\n在美国CPI、PCE双双刷新30余年新高的背景下，数月以来，一些策略师一直在猜测，如果鲍威尔被选中再连任四年，他将不会那么拘谨。相反，他可能会立即对比央行官员预测的更热、更持久的通胀采取更强硬的态度。\n\n市场反应过头了？\n华尔街见闻提及，若美联储开始加息步伐加快，参考2017年底开始的上一轮美国经济复苏过程，美联储加息导致远期利率预估和融资成本上升，在利率冲击下资产价格踩踏式暴跌的风险值得投资者注意。\n不过，也有分析师认为，昨日市场的反应似乎显得有些过头。\n据巴伦周刊，若从联邦基金期货角度上看，在 Omicron 的担忧上周五冲击市场之前，市场实际上已经消化了2022年6月的加息预期。周五，由于变异病毒来袭，预期被推倒，升息预期推迟到了9月，因为市场认为新的病毒将阻碍复苏并给美联储带来新的压力。周二，在鲍威尔讲话后，联邦基金期货显示加息预期重新回到了明年6月，也才不过是已恢复到 Omicron 来袭之前的水平。\n因此，Cornerstone Macro 全球政策主管 Roberto Perli 就表示：\n\n “我不会（将这）解释为货币政策的重大转变，我认为市场对他的话解读的太多了，即使在今天之后，市场也没有预期在6月之前加息。”\n\n进一步，Perli 认为周二并不一定代表着美联储政策的转折点。他认为，在通胀已经成为美国上至华尔街，下至大街小巷普通百姓的普遍担忧后，如今鲍威尔选择放弃通胀“暂时性”这一做法，不仅有道理，而且是一项明智且无成本的政治举措：\n\n “鲍威尔今天的听众是一群政客。”\n\nFundstrat Global Advisors 的研究主管 Tom Lee 也表达了对后市相对乐观的看法。他认为：\n\n “鲍威尔的言论让通胀风险降温。我认为，如果通胀在2022年不再是一个问题，那（鲍威尔的表态）对市场来说实际是件好事。”\n\n此外，市场上有分析师认为，鲍威尔此举很有可能另有深意，目的是给自己争取到政策喘息的空间\n鲍威尔一方面表示，官员们将在12月14日至15日的会议上讨论加快缩减的问题。另一方面又称，专家们告诉美联储，了解奥密克戎大约需要一个月的时间。Perli 认为，鲍威尔这番表态可能是为了争取更多时间。对于上述表态的一种解读方法是，在12月中旬的会议上加速削减债券购买，还为时过早。\n智堡Wisburg认为，今天鲍威尔轻描淡写的两句话或有其他微妙用意——在通胀问题上认怂并不意味着联储将就此大步流星地迈向政策紧缩，反而更有可能是通过压缩Taper周期的举动来表达自身对通胀风险的视角产生了实质性转变，在“货币政策无力应对供给问题”的前提之下，鲍威尔此举很有可能给自己争取到了政策喘息的空间。\n据巴伦周刊，接下来的两件大事才会对Taper进程和结果有明确影响：\n1. 将于本周五发布的美国就业报告。\n考虑到鲍威尔此前表示过，美联储更关心的是其双重使命的充分就业问题，劳动力参与率是否上升以及工资通胀是否放缓将切实影响Taper的进程。\n2. 11月美国CPI数据。\n若11月CPI数据再次大幅上升，则会使得美联储内部提前完成Taper的呼声加剧。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":603332120,"gmtCreate":1638364476929,"gmtModify":1638364477001,"author":{"id":"3583831557542201","authorId":"3583831557542201","name":"浮罗交怡小学生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04c74078871e2b75e8fb62387ab0a490","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"赞 阅","listText":"赞 阅","text":"赞 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