如何理解“逆流而上”的RCEP？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

如何理解“逆流而上”的RCEP？

熊园观察2020-11-16

事件：2020年11月15日，15国正式签署RCEP（区域全面经济伙伴关系协定）。核心结论：RCEP“逆流而上”，对中国是机遇也是挑战，后续中美关系仍是关键变量。 1、RCEP是全球最大的区域自由贸易协定，历时八年终达成。除了有助于加速亚太地区贸易一体化和提振区域经济外，可谓对近年来贸易保护主义和单边主义的有力回应,实属难得。 2、RCEP期望各成员国之间关税减让以“立即降至零关税、10年内降至...

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真的英雄
·2020-11-17
你以为大炮要响了，其实就是个屁
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万象入星辰
·2020-11-17
加油💪
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蘇格抄底
·2020-11-17
新的朝贡体系[正经]
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madhatter
·2020-11-17
无法理解，零关税怎么就成了重大胜利了呢[惊讶]
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nomore
·2020-11-16
日本的半导体材料有没有谈下来
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呵哈哈哈洗洗
·2020-11-16
没具体时间表变数太多
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猛逃
·2020-11-16
试问：根据协议今后就不敢任意煽动什么抵制韩货、日货了吧[吃瓜]
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歡歡羊
·2020-11-16
不用看
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2
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- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-11-16
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隔壁王中王
·2020-11-16
比一带一路靠谱多了
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3
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陆家嘴之象
·2020-11-16
中日韩自贸区搞成才牛批哦
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1
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收起
- 社区成长助手:
  终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引
  2020-11-16
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西部世界
·2020-11-16
既然是协定，各国能真正按照协定执行才是利好，一个老外贸🐶的心声[可怜]
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欧克超人
·2020-11-16
看股市反应就知道如何了
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href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Pzp5NzaS9gLYL4i1b9hopw\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Pzp5NzaS9gLYL4i1b9hopw","article_id":"1183585364","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a64f41d0dddf0d9aa7305e2c49a70c"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183585364","pubTimestamp":1605485790,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1589878828889","name":"熊园观察"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"事件：2020年11月15日，15国正式签署RCEP（区域全面经济伙伴关系协定）。\n核心结论：RCEP“逆流而上”，对中国是机遇也是挑战，后续中美关系仍是关键变量。\n1、RCEP是全球最大的区域自由贸","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"How to understand RCEP 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Partnership，区域全面经济伙伴关系协定）2012年由东盟10国发起，历经8年、30多轮正式谈判之后终于落地，除了有助于加速亚太贸易一体化和提振区域经济外，更重要的影响应是对贸易保护主义和单边主义的回击，有望重塑全球贸易格局，特朗普退出的TPP甚至也可能再度重启（如果拜登正式就任）。\n2、RCEP是全球最大的自由贸易协定：RCEP共15个成员国，分别是：印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、新加坡、文莱、柬埔寨、老挝、缅甸、越南等东盟10国，以及中国、日本、韩国、澳大利亚和新西兰等其他5国。数据显示，截至2019年，RCEP覆盖了约22亿人、占全球30%，GDP总量达25.6万亿美元、占全球29.3%，贸易总额10.4万亿美元、占全球27.4%，RCEP成为了全球最大的自贸协定。此前，最大的自贸协定是全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（CPTPP；11个成员国，人口约占全球7%，GDP占全球13%）；同时，尚处谈判中的中欧双边投资协定若落地，则有望成为最大（28个成员国，人口约占全球25%，GDP占全球近4成）。\n3、RCEP的目标、内容和时间表：RCEP旨在通过削减关税及非关税壁垒，建立统一市场的自由贸易协定，各成员国之间关税减让以立即降至零关税、10年内降至零关税的承诺为主；据我国财政部11月15日官网，RCEP协定由序言、20个章节（主要包括货物贸易、原产地规则、贸易救济、服务贸易、投资、电子商务、政府采购等章）以及货物贸易、服务贸易、投资和自然人临时移动承诺表组成，其中，在投资方面采用负面清单模式，是较WTO框架的实质突破；成员国在未来2年内将在本国走各自的法律流程，我国财政部15日称“有望较短时间内取得重大阶段性建设成果”。\n二、RCEP对中国的影响：机遇与挑战并存\n1、RCEP应是中国的重大外交胜利，尤其是实现了中日两国关税减让的历史性突破，可谓“十四五”规划的“开门红”。据商务部介绍，今年以来正进行的自贸协定谈判有13个，包括RCEP、中欧双边投资协定、中日韩自贸协定、中国-挪威自贸协定，中国-以色列自贸协定，中国-巴拿马自贸协定、中国-新加坡自贸协定升级等。“十四五”规划把单边主义、贸易保护主义作为最大的外部挑战，RCEP签署无疑是“强心剂”，特别是在中日韩自贸协定迟迟无法取得突破之际，中日关税减让实现了“破冰”。\n2、RCEP有利于中国更好地“走出去”和“引进来”，助力“双循环”战略的更好落地，加速我国在环保、知识产权等方面的改革进展，以及推动人民币国际化。中国与RCEP成员国贸易来往密切，包括：东盟已超越美国和欧盟，成为中国第一大贸易伙伴，中国已经连续多年成为东盟、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、新西兰等国的第一大贸易伙伴；RCEP将推动中国对标日韩等发达国家的经济发展质量，尤其是环保、知识产权保护、服务贸易竞争力不足等方面的改革与转型；此外，也将利于我国进口，利好“双循环”战略。\n3、RCEP是双边减税，对我国的优势行业是机遇，对我国的薄弱行业是挑战。基于不少学术研究的测算结果（参考文献附后）：总量方面，“十四五”期间RCEP协定将全方位提升中国GDP、进口、出口、投资等（最高提振幅度将超过2个百分点）；行业方面，受益较大的行业，包括纺织服装、轻工、建材、农产品、采掘业、电子商务等；受冲击较大的行业，包括汽车及零部件、石油化工等等。\n三、RCEP的后续展望：中美关系仍是关键变量\n1、RCEP的一大缺憾：印度并未参与。RCEP一开始包含印度在内的16国，但印度今年7月退出，普遍认为印度是出于对数据安全的顾虑和对逆差可能进一步扩大的顾虑。鉴于印度是亚洲的人口第二大国和经济第三大国，RCEP也因此对印度仍持开放态度。\n2、RCEP的一大挑战：美国并未参与。亚太一直以来都是美国的战略重心，奥巴马时期主推的TPP（跨太平洋伙伴关系协定）由于特朗普的“退群”而中止，日本随后也退出并主导推动了CPTPP。作为TPP的“迷你版”，CPTPP保留了TPP的绝大部分内容。亚太目前有CPTPP和RCEP两个协定，日本、新加坡、新西兰、澳大利亚、马来西亚、越南、文莱等7国两个协议都加入了。往后看，拜登当选应已成定局，很有可能重启TPP或加入已有的CPTPP，这将对RCEP的约束力构成制约。我们预计，中美关系仍是全球贸易格局的主导变量，RCEP的实质效果大概率还是绕不开美国。\n风险提示：中美冲突超预期，部分国家“毁约”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":307253446,"gmtCreate":1605577429785,"gmtModify":1703838377491,"author":{"id":"3472509891364152","authorId":"3472509891364152","name":"真的英雄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/840859d8f7d3c5c63498b7f330b98705","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63f4db5a25402cce463d975948213b15","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"你以为大炮要响了，其实就是个屁","listText":"你以为大炮要响了，其实就是个屁","text":"你以为大炮要响了，其实就是个屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307253446","repostId":1183585364,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":307253852,"gmtCreate":1605577291276,"gmtModify":1703838376801,"author":{"id":"3562804247976669","authorId":"3562804247976669","name":"万象入星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a460741757ff1652ffd3f30a2b50095","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"加油💪","listText":"加油💪","text":"加油💪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307253852","repostId":1183585364,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":307259869,"gmtCreate":1605577146351,"gmtModify":1703838375590,"author":{"id":"3507617267335440","authorId":"3507617267335440","name":"蘇格抄底","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eec61d9e9935e53255148f4a382aef46","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"新的朝贡体系[正经]&nbsp;","listText":"新的朝贡体系[正经]&nbsp;","text":"新的朝贡体系[正经]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307259869","repostId":1183585364,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":307250706,"gmtCreate":1605577106505,"gmtModify":1703838374723,"author":{"id":"3493842670456657","authorId":"3493842670456657","name":"madhatter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0608ff027983d65930949408359fec","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"无法理解，零关税怎么就成了重大胜利了呢[惊讶]&nbsp;","listText":"无法理解，零关税怎么就成了重大胜利了呢[惊讶]&nbsp;","text":"无法理解，零关税怎么就成了重大胜利了呢[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307250706","repostId":1183585364,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":307148472,"gmtCreate":1605521050996,"gmtModify":1703837974518,"author":{"id":"3517624855774164","authorId":"3517624855774164","name":"nomore","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbff740ab1c9eecde7389e74af95baac","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"日本的半导体材料有没有谈下来","listText":"日本的半导体材料有没有谈下来","text":"日本的半导体材料有没有谈下来","images":[],"top":1,"highlight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