Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.

Barron's2021-08-18

Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands. Minutes ...

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MoonMoon
·2021-08-18
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·2021-08-18
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·2021-08-18
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·2021-08-18
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JianWei666
·2021-08-18
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chewlizzie
·2021-08-18
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Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1610680873436","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. 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Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 22:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1>Barron's</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPY","symbol_name":"标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","article_id":"1183500203","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1610680873436","name":"Barron's"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"美联储7月会议记录今天公布。寻找锥度辩论的线索。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":831159035,"gmtCreate":1629296164927,"gmtModify":1631891821308,"author":{"id":"3581831647982295","authorId":"3581831647982295","name":"MoonMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7abc88bf78bc4fd17d5085b308a74c4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581831647982295","idStr":"3581831647982295"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831159035","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5569167,"gmtCreate":1629296692352,"gmtModify":1631891821306,"authorId":3573260715066065,"author":{"id":3573260715066065,"idStr":"3573260715066065","authorId":3573260715066065,"name":"LewisLewis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61c148b5b38fd33489bc18824afe097c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831159035,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Where is tapering? Like back","text":"Where is tapering? Like back","html":"Where is tapering? Like back"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831125575,"gmtCreate":1629295994297,"gmtModify":1631891400032,"author":{"id":"3574248297776618","authorId":"3574248297776618","name":"Kelmondd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a57dc971fa110cc6e7e22b4228239930","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3574248297776618","idStr":"3574248297776618"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831125575","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5569228,"gmtCreate":1629296973905,"gmtModify":1635148496797,"authorId":3582712040480106,"author":{"id":3582712040480106,"idStr":"3582712040480106","authorId":3582712040480106,"name":"SASMINE16","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831125575,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831126301,"gmtCreate":1629295911003,"gmtModify":1633685895584,"author":{"id":"3581714447881138","authorId":"3581714447881138","name":"nuxezt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59377d9d4868bc55b936ae5d44ea9d14","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581714447881138","idStr":"3581714447881138"},"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831126301","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5569015,"gmtCreate":1629296007696,"gmtModify":1635148510390,"authorId":3574248297776618,"author":{"id":3574248297776618,"idStr":"3574248297776618","authorId":3574248297776618,"name":"Kelmondd","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a57dc971fa110cc6e7e22b4228239930","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831126301,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done","text":"done","html":"done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831123933,"gmtCreate":1629295796022,"gmtModify":1633685896985,"author":{"id":"3581989267840978","authorId":"3581989267840978","name":"JY_02222","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56c9cab1743301942105239814a6ac4a","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581989267840978","idStr":"3581989267840978"},"htmlText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831123933","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5568971,"gmtCreate":1629295826679,"gmtModify":1635148513163,"authorId":3575161168367473,"author":{"id":3575161168367473,"idStr":"3575161168367473","authorId":3575161168367473,"name":"eddysim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/febc94a145a8b58750e778c8de0aa4f3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831123933,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"},{"id":5568994,"gmtCreate":1629295897189,"gmtModify":1635148511884,"authorId":3583792975632473,"author":{"id":3583792975632473,"idStr":"3583792975632473","authorId":3583792975632473,"name":"EriChen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bd93c3f255ecea4388711140dcaeb35","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831123933,"type":1,"supId":5568971,"prevId":0,"content":"alright","text":"alright","html":"alright"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831167113,"gmtCreate":1629295706932,"gmtModify":1631892622311,"author":{"id":"3575256032463698","authorId":"3575256032463698","name":"tearach","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/861adeae93387d8335f9550889bafb00","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3575256032463698","idStr":"3575256032463698"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831167113","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5568943,"gmtCreate":1629295724220,"gmtModify":1635148514552,"authorId":3575256032463698,"author":{"id":3575256032463698,"idStr":"3575256032463698","authorId":3575256032463698,"name":"tearach","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/861adeae93387d8335f9550889bafb00","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831167113,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831165318,"gmtCreate":1629295621334,"gmtModify":1633685899385,"author":{"id":"4088678245292670","authorId":"4088678245292670","name":"42453ab9","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/default-avatar2.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4088678245292670","idStr":"4088678245292670"},"htmlText":"Like please thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Like please thanks&nbsp;","text":"Like please thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831165318","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5568922,"gmtCreate":1629295646975,"gmtModify":1635148516162,"authorId":3581751862863565,"author":{"id":3581751862863565,"idStr":"3581751862863565","authorId":3581751862863565,"name":"ZiXian","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8202fcb78c649699d3f55076c1d48de2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831165318,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831165029,"gmtCreate":1629295597161,"gmtModify":1633685899631,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831165029","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5568942,"gmtCreate":1629295718849,"gmtModify":1635148514659,"authorId":3575256032463698,"author":{"id":3575256032463698,"idStr":"3575256032463698","authorId":3575256032463698,"name":"tearach","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/861adeae93387d8335f9550889bafb00","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831165029,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok ","text":"ok ","html":"ok "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831162427,"gmtCreate":1629295583669,"gmtModify":1631891346270,"author":{"id":"3582285682937778","authorId":"3582285682937778","name":"neoh","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3582285682937778","idStr":"3582285682937778"},"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831162427","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831166760,"gmtCreate":1629295538650,"gmtModify":1631892142144,"author":{"id":"3581678918909639","authorId":"3581678918909639","name":"Jon89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30b3d43718a133f47da22154d533f71e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581678918909639","idStr":"3581678918909639"},"htmlText":"Comment and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831166760","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5568954,"gmtCreate":1629295777465,"gmtModify":1631892142145,"authorId":3581854163021741,"author":{"id":3581854163021741,"idStr":"3581854163021741","authorId":3581854163021741,"name":"火箭炮66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/255d5bb9f3279a39c61e33ea2000abe1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831166760,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831166483,"gmtCreate":1629295536642,"gmtModify":1631893077564,"author":{"id":"3581763751831637","authorId":"3581763751831637","name":"ShinChan89","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93838fdb97783c72aa29aef28ea94143","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581763751831637","idStr":"3581763751831637"},"htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831166483","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831168093,"gmtCreate":1629295458512,"gmtModify":1633685901068,"author":{"id":"3580242628963893","authorId":"3580242628963893","name":"JianWei666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fc98405baafeb9f9f9f0e84775c542","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3580242628963893","idStr":"3580242628963893"},"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831168093","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5568875,"gmtCreate":1629295468391,"gmtModify":1635148518722,"authorId":3580242628963893,"author":{"id":3580242628963893,"idStr":"3580242628963893","authorId":3580242628963893,"name":"JianWei666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3fc98405baafeb9f9f9f0e84775c542","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831168093,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"q q","text":"q q","html":"q q"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831169602,"gmtCreate":1629295402006,"gmtModify":1631889852260,"author":{"id":"3581935887185033","authorId":"3581935887185033","name":"chewlizzie","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581935887185033","idStr":"3581935887185033"},"htmlText":"Latest","listText":"Latest","text":"Latest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831169602","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5568866,"gmtCreate":1629295448151,"gmtModify":1635148519258,"authorId":3582083107278542,"author":{"id":3582083107278542,"idStr":"3582083107278542","authorId":3582083107278542,"name":"2133d72f","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831169602,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"nice","text":"nice","html":"nice"},{"id":5568901,"gmtCreate":1629295558453,"gmtModify":1635148517650,"authorId":3586757464125673,"author":{"id":3586757464125673,"idStr":"3586757464125673","authorId":3586757464125673,"name":"72aaf5fc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831169602,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"GooD","text":"GooD","html":"GooD"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":831160548,"gmtCreate":1629295364484,"gmtModify":1631894029468,"author":{"id":"3577868544183128","authorId":"3577868544183128","name":"Duuckie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/112b2c44cdb2e4be4a91fd61c51ca4e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3577868544183128","idStr":"3577868544183128"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831160548","repostId":1183500203,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183500203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629295278,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183500203?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 22:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183500203","media":"Barron's","summary":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchas","content":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinutes of the Fed’s July Meeting Come Today. Look for Clues on the Taper Debate.<blockquote>美联储 7 月会议纪要将于今日公布。寻找锥形辩论的线索。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarron's2021-08-18 22:01\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nInvestors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.<blockquote>投资者知道美联储官员已经开始讨论缩减每月债券购买规模的计划。他们最近一次会议的会议记录可能会显示辩论有多分裂。</blockquote> Minutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors.&nbsp;<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会（美联储的利率制定机构）7 月 27 日至 28 日的会议纪要将于下午 2 点公布。东部时间周三。在一次会议上，官员们更新了政策声明，承认经济活动和就业市场的持续强劲，以及通胀上升。然而，官员们对这种乐观情绪持谨慎态度，承认受疫情影响的行业持续疲软，并重申了价格上涨反映暂时因素的共识观点。</blockquote> The official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.<blockquote>官方信息：现在是谈论缩减规模的时候了，但现在做还为时过早。</blockquote> The FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 7 月份重申，将继续每月购买 1200 亿美元的国债和抵押贷款支持证券，并添加了新的措辞，强化了缩减规模可能在第四季度开始的预期。美联储在上次会议后重申，“在实现最大就业和物价稳定目标取得实质性进一步进展之前”，购买计划将继续实施，并补充说： “经济在实现这些目标方面取得了进展，委员会将在未来的会议上继续评估进展”。</blockquote> Behind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says.&nbsp;<blockquote>在幕后，有对立的观点。“牛津经济研究所经济学家凯西-博斯特扬西奇（Kathy Bostjancic）说：”独特的经济复苏不均衡导致了联邦公开市场委员会内部的分裂。她说，鹰派认为，美联储应在今年秋季开始缩减加息规模，以便在通胀不是暂时的情况下为更快地加息提供空间，而鸽派则希望等待通胀步伐和供应受限的劳动力市场状况更加明朗。</blockquote> In the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).<blockquote>自 7 月会议结束以来的几周内，投资者听取了几位美联储官员的意见。正在形成的情况是，越来越多的官员希望尽快开始缩减开支，这表明通货膨胀不断膨胀和房价持续上涨。达拉斯联储主席卡普兰是第一个表示应尽快开始缩减规模的人，他对该计划对房地产市场的影响表示特别担忧。缩减时间阵营的其他人包括波士顿联储主席埃里克·罗森格伦、圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，尽管这些所谓的鹰派在速度问题上存在分歧（例如，卡普兰希望放松 8 个月，而布拉德则认为放松 5 个月）。</blockquote> The key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands.&nbsp;<blockquote>进入 7 月份的会议纪要，展望 8 月底举行的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔研讨会，阻碍缩减规模时机的关键在于美联储领导层的立场。由于地区美联储主席在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）上轮换，一些在缩减规模方面声音最大的人目前并不是有投票权的成员。美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔的投票是最重要的一票，他已经明确表明了自己的立场。</blockquote> “We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.”&nbsp;<blockquote>“鲍威尔在 7 月份的新闻发布会上告诉记者：”我们没有取得实质性的进一步进展。“对于什么样的时机是合适的，有多种观点。这些观点最终会追溯到人们对经济的看法，以及当我们朝着目标取得进展时会发生什么。”</blockquote> The upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner.&nbsp;<blockquote>投资者的结果，至少目前是这样？规模仍然倾向于缩小，而不是尽早。</blockquote> “While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday.&nbsp;<blockquote>“林根说：”虽然看起来我们倾向于在 9 月份公布数据，但事实上，德尔塔变异毒株对 8 月份的情绪数据影响如此之大，我们怀疑这抵消了美联储的任何紧迫性。</blockquote> It isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.&nbsp; “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”<blockquote>林根补充说，这并不是说 9 月份宣布的正式缩减规模与 11 月份或 12 月份宣布的缩减规模是没有区别的。“毕竟，人们的假设是，资产购买越早削减，美联储在通胀需要的情况下就能越快加息。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barron's</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/minutes-of-the-feds-july-meeting-come-today-look-for-clues-on-the-taper-debate-51629234831?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183500203","content_text":"Investors know Federal Reserve officials have started discussing plans to taper monthly bond purchases. Minutes from their most recent meeting may show just how splintered the debate stands.\nMinutes from the July 27-28 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee—the central bank’s rate-setting arm—are set to be released at 2 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday. They come out of a meeting where officials updated their policy statement to acknowledge ongoing strength in economic activity and the job market, as well as rising inflation. Officials caveated the optimism, however, with nods to persistent weakness in pandemic-struck sectors and reiterated the consensus view that price increases reflect transitory factors. \nThe official message: It’s time to talk about tapering, but it’s too soon to do it.\nThe FOMC in July reiterated that it would continue to buy $120 billion a month in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and it added new language that reinforced expectations that tapering may start in the fourth quarter. The purchase program will remain in place ”until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals,” the Fed repeated after its last meeting, adding: “the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings.”\nBehind the scenes, there are opposing views. “The uniquely uneven economic recovery has led to a splintering within the FOMC,” says Kathy Bostjancic, economist at Oxford Economics. The hawks argue that the Fed should start tapering this fall in order to provide leeway to more quickly raise interest rates if inflation doesn’t turn out to be transitory, while the dovish members want to wait for greater clarity around the pace of inflation and the state of the supply-constrained labor market, she says. \nIn the weeks since the July meeting concluded, investors have heard from several Fed officials. The picture shaping up is that a growing cadre of officials want to start tapering sooner than later, pointing to bubbling inflation and a relentless rise in home prices. Dallas Fed President Kaplan, the first to say tapering should begin soon, has expressed particular concern over the program’s impact on the housing market. Others in the time-to-taper camp include Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed governor Christopher Waller, though those so-called hawks disagree about speed (Kaplan wants an 8-month wind-down, for example, while Bullard sees a 5-month runway).\nThe key to handicapping taper timing, heading into the July meeting minutes and looking ahead to the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August, is where Fed leadership stands. Some of the loudest on tapering aren’t currently voting members, as regional Fed presidents rotate on and off the FOMC. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s vote is the most important one, and he’s been clear about where he stands. \n“We’re not at substantial further progress,” Powell told reporters during his July press conference. “There’s a range of views on what timing will be appropriate. And those views ultimately track back to people’s views about the economy and what will happen as we make progress towards our goal.” \nThe upshot for investors, at least for now? The scale is still tipped toward tapering later than sooner. \n“While it might appear that we’re leaning toward a September announcement, in fact the Delta variant has weighed so heavily on August’s sentiment data we suspect that offsets any urgency on the part of the Fed,” Lyngen says, referring to the steep drop in consumer confidence reported by the University of Michigan last Friday. \nIt isn’t to say that an official tapering announcement in September versus November or December represents a distinction without a difference, Lyngen adds.  “After all, the assumption is that the sooner asset purchases are curtailed, the more quickly the Fed can hike rates if inflation dictates.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5568856,"gmtCreate":1629295408481,"gmtModify":1631894029468,"authorId":4087562211958410,"author":{"id":4087562211958410,"idStr":"4087562211958410","authorId":4087562211958410,"name":"73f94148","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":831160548,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":73,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}