美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门

华尔街见闻2020-03-12

正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现...

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菜鸟学飞翔
·2020-03-13
美国佬是自作自受，到处惹事生非，真以为老子天下笫一，难道连上帝都奈何不了它，疯狂过后将面临灭顶之灾。
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进击的姜小胖
·2020-03-12
断！
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ALUD
·2020-03-12
中国开采油成本更高也没见哪个油厂倒闭了，不就是国家补嘛，垄断行业多赚点多收点税补贴一下不就完了
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1
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IRProfessor
·2020-03-12
真是难，再考虑两者的交互的话
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YDWR
·2020-03-12
感觉有点道理啊。不过，这是个比烂的时代，别的国家经济也有一堆问题.进入比谁更快崩溃的时候了？
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罗罗罗汉
·2020-03-12
大家看看这次股票下跌，大部分是跌掉了谁的米米，很有可能还要不是美国的。
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猛逃
·2020-03-12
涨涨跌跌是市场经济正常的事吗？非市场经济才只能涨，不让跌呢。小骗，别一惊一乍地[财迷]
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同花
·2020-03-12
这么一看还是特么债务危机啊，跟08年不同的是08年次贷危机更有隐蔽性，涉及面更广
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Woshidui
·2020-03-12
正是经常重新启动，美股金融才能维持长期繁荣。
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易多多
·2020-03-12
美国股市又不是没崩过，吓唬谁呢？美国的国际地位没人能取代这才是真的！
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小脑斧大脸猫
·2020-03-12
透彻
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想富
·2020-03-12
分析美国企业困难一道一道的，就好像中国企业刀枪不入一样
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{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178354444?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2020-03-12 08:38","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","id":"1178354444","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。\n油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-12 08:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。\n油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw","article_id":"1178354444","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178354444","pubTimestamp":1583973492,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"What is the collapse of U.S. Stocks? This is the life gate of the U.S. Economy.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79da882a4918497ab16accb6bd7b8003","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。\n油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现倒闭潮。\n当然，倒闭潮不是油价在跌破48美元那一刻就会立即发生，因为页岩油公司测算的所谓成本里面很多都是“沉没成本”，油价就算只有10美元/桶，页岩油公司都要照样生产——一方面是寄希望于此后的油价回升；另一方面是能收回多少就收回多少成本。等到油井干涸后（页岩油油井生命周期只有2-3年，需要不断投入资本开采新的油井，才能保证产量），如果油价在此期间没有回升，那不但页岩油公司无法继续生产维持产量，用于支撑其庞大资本投入的债务也将违约。\n所以油价短期下跌的连锁冲击需要一点时间才能显现，但页岩油公司的债务由于预期会首先出现问题，而巨大的炸弹引信就从这里点燃。\n整个市场目前也正在演着这一逻辑演进着。美国页岩油公司SM Energy发行的总规模4.77亿美元的公司债周一一开盘价格就出现了腰斩，从90美分跌到了42美分。这只是冰山一角，很多页岩油公司的债务都在油价腰斩的同时，同步腰斩。\n整个美国油气公司的公司债债券市场有多大？9360亿美元！周一一开盘超过1000亿美元的油气公司债的收益率与美国国债的利差就超过了10%！（公司债与美国国债间的利差是衡量公司债违约风险的重要指标之一，利差越高违约风险越大）\n一共不就1000亿美元的公司债么？就算全没了又能怎样！？\n油气公司债不是孤立存在的真空，其与整个美国公司债市场紧密关联，公司债和公司债之间的收益率是有强正相关关系的（这主要是因为整个经济是相互关联的——一个部门出现了严重问题将影响整个产业链，继而传导至整个经济，所以公司债市场的利率关联性是以经济现实为基础的。），油气公司债的利率大幅上行将带动整个美国市场公司债利率。这也是市场上目前正在发生的事情。\n图：美联储监控的美国BBB级公司债利率与国债利差变化情况虽然涨幅挺大，但实际利差才不到2.4%，应该还好吧。\n首先，这是美联储滞后2-3天的数据，现在应该高更多；更加重要的是，这种利差上升一旦开启，将是巨浪级的连锁反应，特别是在美联储已经没有太多降息空间的情况下，更是如此。\n为什么呢？因为随着利差的上升，美联储又没有足够弹药帮忙人为降低公司债利率的情况下，随着利率越来越高，原先能还得起债的公司就会变得还不起（现金流没变，但利息支出更高了），特别是那些离垃圾级债券仅一步之遥的BBB级债券最为危险——这些公司债后面的现金流支撑很脆弱，一旦利率升高就会被降到垃圾级，同时利率暴涨，形成恶性循环，加速企业死亡。\n美国现在因为利差上升可能被降到垃圾的BBB级债券规模有多大？3万亿美元！占整个公司债市场的50%！\n08年之前，BBB级的占比大约也就是在20-25%。但是随着此后欧美央行长期保持低利率，让更多原本应该是垃圾级的债券变成了BBB级（垃圾级市场较小，因为很多机构不允许买垃圾级债券，但变成BBB级之后市场就越做越大，再加上利率不断走低，让BBB级更加受欢迎）；同时BBB级债券还被用用于股票回购：发债的成本很多只有3-4%，但公司在内部测算股票成本时的市场要求收益率一般都在10%以上，用不到一半成本的公司债去置换股票是小学生都会算的帐。\n图：结果就是这样的（灰色部分是BBB级公司债的规模变化情况）而多数的油气公司债都处在BBB级区间，油气板块爆掉，将引爆大规模的BBB级债券收益率跟着上升，以及大规模的降级潮。\n被评为BBB级债券的企业发行人，其实际上离垃圾级仅一步之遥。更确切地说如果不是因为长期低利率，这些发行人本身就是垃圾级。在利差上升的情况下，据新债王冈德拉赫测算，美国三分之一到二分之一的BBB级债券都会被打回原形。\n等事情发展到这一程度时，就是美国公司债危机全面爆发之日，其冲击力将不会亚于08年经济危机。而油价暴跌后保持低位时间越长，这一天也就越近。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":965708235,"gmtCreate":1584062334127,"gmtModify":1704352857496,"author":{"id":"3546622742976693","authorId":"3546622742976693","name":"菜鸟学飞翔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac69e624d69fbe2b1dd78f8995d9cdab","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"美国佬是自作自受，到处惹事生非，真以为老子天下笫一，难道连上帝都奈何不了它，疯狂过后将面临灭顶之灾。","listText":"美国佬是自作自受，到处惹事生非，真以为老子天下笫一，难道连上帝都奈何不了它，疯狂过后将面临灭顶之灾。","text":"美国佬是自作自受，到处惹事生非，真以为老子天下笫一，难道连上帝都奈何不了它，疯狂过后将面临灭顶之灾。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965708235","repostId":1178354444,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":965249728,"gmtCreate":1584020404864,"gmtModify":1704352537847,"author":{"id":"3524248682419661","authorId":"3524248682419661","name":"进击的姜小胖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c463e9ff18dc379c613d4b3a272f2df","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"断！","listText":"断！","text":"断！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965249728","repostId":1178354444,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":965654654,"gmtCreate":1584004737078,"gmtModify":1704352388219,"author":{"id":"3480466889774549","authorId":"3480466889774549","name":"ALUD","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/d0efefb2c1a27d4b44a28e497bd533e6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"中国开采油成本更高也没见哪个油厂倒闭了，不就是国家补嘛，垄断行业多赚点多收点税补贴一下不就完了","listText":"中国开采油成本更高也没见哪个油厂倒闭了，不就是国家补嘛，垄断行业多赚点多收点税补贴一下不就完了","text":"中国开采油成本更高也没见哪个油厂倒闭了，不就是国家补嘛，垄断行业多赚点多收点税补贴一下不就完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965654654","repostId":1178354444,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":965652982,"gmtCreate":1584004440246,"gmtModify":1704352384760,"author":{"id":"300100957779274","authorId":"300100957779274","name":"IRProfessor","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"真是难，再考虑两者的交互的话","listText":"真是难，再考虑两者的交互的话","text":"真是难，再考虑两者的交互的话","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965652982","repostId":1178354444,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":965656873,"gmtCreate":1584004274592,"gmtModify":1704352383373,"author":{"id":"52397425785384","authorId":"52397425785384","name":"YDWR","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"感觉有点道理啊。不过，这是个比烂的时代，别的国家经济也有一堆问题.进入比谁更快崩溃的时候了？","listText":"感觉有点道理啊。不过，这是个比烂的时代，别的国家经济也有一堆问题.进入比谁更快崩溃的时候了？","text":"感觉有点道理啊。不过，这是个比烂的时代，别的国家经济也有一堆问题.进入比谁更快崩溃的时候了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965656873","repostId":1178354444,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":965682828,"gmtCreate":1583997988564,"gmtModify":1704352343005,"author":{"id":"3484169342848346","authorId":"3484169342848346","name":"罗罗罗汉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b6ae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