半个世纪来最差的上半年之后，美股下面怎么走？_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

半个世纪来最差的上半年之后，美股下面怎么走？

华尔街见闻2022-07-01

美股大跌的罪魁祸首是通胀，而通胀愈演愈烈的一大推手是美联储。自1970年以来，美股从未经历过像今年这样差劲的上半年。在六月的最后一天，标普500指数收跌0.9%，使蓝筹股指数在2022年前六个月下跌20.6%。在标普500指数的所有板块中，半年来除了能源股大涨29%，其他板块均出现不同程度的下跌。非必需消费品类股跌幅最大，跌幅达33%。被视为通胀对冲工具的公用事业股的跌幅最小，今年下跌了2%。根据...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

鸡蛋炒韭黄
·2022-07-02
如果经济本身增长强劲，物价上涨不是正常的吗
回复
点赞
举报
凯恩斯主义
·2022-07-01
现在和1960-1980通胀没有可比性！
回复
1
举报
22年32年20.8W
·2022-07-01
再探再报
回复
2
举报
阳光小韭
·2022-07-01
我觉得逻辑顺序错误，美股的罪魁祸首是美联储，美联储的原因是通胀，而通胀的罪魁祸首是拜登[得意]
回复
3
举报
收起
- ckxy2008回复阳光小韭:
  [开心][开心]
  2022-07-05
  回复
  举报
- 阳光小韭:
  反正阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚等战争都是他钟情的
  2022-07-05
  回复
  举报
- ckxy2008回复阳光小韭:
  伊拉克战争难道不是小布什吗？[捂脸][捂脸]
  2022-07-05
  回复
  举报
查看更多 2 条评论

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176074757?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-07-01 16:22","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1176074757","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"半个世纪来最差的上半年之后，美股下面怎么走？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>美股大跌的罪魁祸首是通胀，而通胀愈演愈烈的一大推手是美联储。自1970年以来，美股从未经历过像今年这样差劲的上半年。在六月的最后一天，标普500指数收跌0.9%，使蓝筹股指数在2022年前六个月下跌20.6%。在标普500指数的所有板块中，半年来除了能源股大涨29%，其他板块均出现不同程度的下跌。非必需消费品类股跌幅最大，跌幅达33%。被视为通胀对冲工具的公用事业股的跌幅最小，今年下跌了2%。根据...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>半个世纪来最差的上半年之后，美股下面怎么走？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n半个世纪来最差的上半年之后，美股下面怎么走？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2022-07-01 16:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股大跌的罪魁祸首是通胀，而通胀愈演愈烈的一大推手是美联储。自1970年以来，美股从未经历过像今年这样差劲的上半年。在六月的最后一天，标普500指数收跌0.9%，使蓝筹股指数在2022年前六个月下跌20.6%。在标普500指数的所有板块中，半年来除了能源股大涨29%，其他板块均出现不同程度的下跌。非必需消费品类股跌幅最大，跌幅达33%。被视为通胀对冲工具的公用事业股的跌幅最小，今年下跌了2%。根据...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"","article_id":"1176074757","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176074757","pubTimestamp":1656663761,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"美股大跌的罪魁祸首是通胀，而通胀愈演愈烈的一大推手是美联储。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"After the worst first half of the year in half a century, how can we get to the bottom of US stocks?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3effc7dc8198159ac7f429d55162d95","symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"美股大跌的罪魁祸首是通胀，而通胀愈演愈烈的一大推手是美联储。自1970年以来，美股从未经历过像今年这样差劲的上半年。在六月的最后一天，标普500指数收跌0.9%，使蓝筹股指数在2022年前六个月下跌20.6%。在标普500指数的所有板块中，半年来除了能源股大涨29%，其他板块均出现不同程度的下跌。非必需消费品类股跌幅最大，跌幅达33%。被视为通胀对冲工具的公用事业股的跌幅最小，今年下跌了2%。根据彭博社追踪的标普1500综合指数数据，自2021年底以来，美国股市的市值已缩水超过9万亿美元。此外，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数于6月30日收跌1.3%，2022年以来的累计跌幅接近30%。罪魁祸首——通胀在大部分分析师看来，这一切的罪魁祸首非通胀不可。巴克莱全球股票联席主管Paul Leech表示：“它（通胀）一直是今年的主题，而且愈演愈烈，真的。”根据官方统计的数据，美国5月CPI意外同比大增8.6%，创下自1981年12月的最高记录，通胀正在变得越来越根深蒂固。而通胀愈演愈烈的一大推手在于美联储本身，美联储官员去年一直坚称“通胀是暂时的”，但实际上，它远远落后于通胀曲线，导致美国经济还没完全从新冠疫情中恢复过来，又要遭受通胀的冲击。金融机构LPL Financial首席股票策略师 Quincy Krosby表示：“正是因为美联储坚持其通胀宽松的‘暂时性’心态......因为央行的慷慨，因为政府的慷慨......我们才到了今天这个地步。”激进加息下  硬着陆难以避免由于落后于通胀曲线，美联储被迫加速追赶，目前美联储已经累计加息150个基点，而且很可能会继续激进加息。然而，在许多华尔街人士眼中，美联储反应太慢了，如果能早点行动，情况或许没有那么糟糕，而如此激烈的收紧货币政策可能会将美国推入衰退漩涡。据摩根大通首席投资官Bob Michele表示，美国现在看起来更有可能出现衰退而不是软着陆，因为今天的经济前景看起来比40年前更加糟糕。Michele认为，在通胀越来越根深蒂固的情况下，美联储在加速收紧货币政策的路上还要再走很长一段。他在接受媒体采访时表示：“这无疑是我职业生涯中最具挑战性的时期”，“我们被困在流动性泛滥的系统中，与当前我们看到的经济增长和通胀以及就业率水平相比，利率低的离谱。”随着股市暴跌，投资者的安全感正在消耗殆尽。彭博数据显示，在过去六个月中，投资者已经从iSharesiBoxx高收益企业债券Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF撤回超过67亿美元，这是自2007年该ETF成立以来最大的半年度资金流出。此外，出于对经济衰退的恐惧，美国国债最近几天上涨，使10年期美债收益率跌至接近3%。美股下半年怎么走如果Michele一语成谶，股票和其他风险资产的表现可能会更加糟糕。法国兴业银行此前估计，标普500未来六个月可能需要较1月份的峰值下跌34%-40%至2900-3150点，才能够触底。这意味着标普500指数将在当前水平进一步下跌17%以上。与此同时，仍有分析师持看涨态度。一方面，在大量投资者出逃之际，还有不少投资者正在或准备大举抄底。另一方面，有分析认为美国通胀水平将很快降下去，衰退不会很快出现。华尔街知名金融机构Oppenheimer的策略师John Stoltzfus预计，标普500指数在2022年结束时为5330点，这意味着标普500指数将在未来六个月内上涨约40%。包括摩根大通和瑞士信贷集团在内的少数其他公司的预测该指数到年底至少反弹30%。在最新的彭博调查中，华尔街策略师平均认为标普500指数将会在下半年反弹20%。此外，根据道琼斯市场数据公司编制的数据，标普500指数在上半年下跌超过15%后，下半年会出现反弹。平均涨幅为23.66%，中位数涨幅为15.25%。注意，可供参考的样本量只有5个。按照平均涨幅计算，标普500指数在下半年将反弹至4680点左右。但并不是所有的指数都会经历相似的路径。比如，道琼斯指数在上半年下跌超过10%后，下半年表现是不稳定的。2008年金融危机爆发时，道指在下半年再次下跌22.68%。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":681107369,"gmtCreate":1656713149953,"gmtModify":1704865677834,"author":{"id":"4112362136204710","authorId":"4112362136204710","name":"鸡蛋炒韭黄","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25c1ff3def97bc121634b9fc85afe62","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4112362136204710","authorIdStr":"4112362136204710"},"htmlText":"如果经济本身增长强劲，物价上涨不是正常的吗","listText":"如果经济本身增长强劲，物价上涨不是正常的吗","text":"如果经济本身增长强劲，物价上涨不是正常的吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681107369","repostId":1176074757,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":681348180,"gmtCreate":1656686758643,"gmtModify":1704865635107,"author":{"id":"3585085986117717","authorId":"3585085986117717","name":"凯恩斯主义","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92b07d7e2982777c4b3b3026f83f6e6a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585085986117717","authorIdStr":"3585085986117717"},"htmlText":"现在和1960-1980通胀没有可比性！","listText":"现在和1960-1980通胀没有可比性！","text":"现在和1960-1980通胀没有可比性！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681348180","repostId":1176074757,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":681357355,"gmtCreate":1656685134880,"gmtModify":1704865626301,"author":{"id":"3518762657400915","authorId":"3518762657400915","name":"22年32年20.8W","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c93b67f16ea9fed2ed68dc9fcd0c354b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518762657400915","authorIdStr":"3518762657400915"},"htmlText":"再探再报","listText":"再探再报","text":"再探再报","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681357355","repostId":1176074757,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":681357978,"gmtCreate":1656685106397,"gmtModify":1704865626128,"author":{"id":"3565504098630572","authorId":"3565504098630572","name":"阳光小韭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79edaa280746cca23919ac63191cde0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3565504098630572","authorIdStr":"3565504098630572"},"htmlText":"我觉得逻辑顺序错误，美股的罪魁祸首是美联储，美联储的原因是通胀，而通胀的罪魁祸首是拜登[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"我觉得逻辑顺序错误，美股的罪魁祸首是美联储，美联储的原因是通胀，而通胀的罪魁祸首是拜登[得意]&nbsp;","text":"我觉得逻辑顺序错误，美股的罪魁祸首是美联储，美联储的原因是通胀，而通胀的罪魁祸首是拜登[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681357978","repostId":1176074757,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7519804,"gmtCreate":1657008381568,"gmtModify":1657008382583,"authorId":3457299282858406,"author":{"id":3457299282858406,"idStr":"3457299282858406","authorId":3457299282858406,"name":"ckxy2008","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3565504098630572,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3565504098630572,"idStr":"3565504098630572","authorId":3565504098630572,"name":"阳光小韭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79edaa280746cca23919ac63191cde0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":681357978,"type":1,"supId":7513896,"prevId":7519690,"content":"[开心][开心]","text":"[开心][开心]","html":"[开心][开心]"},{"id":7519700,"gmtCreate":1657004249803,"gmtModify":1657004331637,"authorId":3565504098630572,"author":{"id":3565504098630572,"idStr":"3565504098630572","authorId":3565504098630572,"name":"阳光小韭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79edaa280746cca23919ac63191cde0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":681357978,"type":1,"supId":7513896,"prevId":0,"content":"反正阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚等战争都是他钟情的","text":"反正阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚等战争都是他钟情的","html":"反正阿富汗、伊拉克、叙利亚等战争都是他钟情的"},{"id":7519406,"gmtCreate":1656992606338,"gmtModify":1656993349696,"authorId":3457299282858406,"author":{"id":3457299282858406,"idStr":"3457299282858406","authorId":3457299282858406,"name":"ckxy2008","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3565504098630572,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3565504098630572,"idStr":"3565504098630572","authorId":3565504098630572,"name":"阳光小韭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79edaa280746cca23919ac63191cde0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":681357978,"type":1,"supId":7513896,"prevId":7519268,"content":"伊拉克战争难道不是小布什吗？[捂脸][捂脸]","text":"伊拉克战争难道不是小布什吗？[捂脸][捂脸]","html":"伊拉克战争难道不是小布什吗？[捂脸][捂脸]"},{"id":7519267,"gmtCreate":1656987179318,"gmtModify":1656988435473,"authorId":3565504098630572,"author":{"id":3565504098630572,"idStr":"3565504098630572","authorId":3565504098630572,"name":"阳光小韭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79edaa280746cca23919ac63191cde0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":681357978,"type":1,"supId":7513896,"prevId":0,"content":"这都是政治咱也不敢说对错，不过如果只是货币放水造成的通胀，应该是在美联储控制范围内的，这也是去年老鲍坚信通胀是暂时的原因。","text":"这都是政治咱也不敢说对错，不过如果只是货币放水造成的通胀，应该是在美联储控制范围内的，这也是去年老鲍坚信通胀是暂时的原因。","html":"这都是政治咱也不敢说对错，不过如果只是货币放水造成的通胀，应该是在美联储控制范围内的，这也是去年老鲍坚信通胀是暂时的原因。"},{"id":7519268,"gmtCreate":1656987332297,"gmtModify":1656988430205,"authorId":3565504098630572,"author":{"id":3565504098630572,"idStr":"3565504098630572","authorId":3565504098630572,"name":"阳光小韭","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79edaa280746cca23919ac63191cde0","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":681357978,"type":1,"supId":7513896,"prevId":0,"content":"个人观点，加剧通胀问题从而造成美联储牺牲经济的前提大幅加息的原因是突然爆发的地域冲突导致，这也是拜登擅长的戏码，发战争财，当年伊拉克也是他发动的[笑哭]搞笑的民主党竟然是好战份子","text":"个人观点，加剧通胀问题从而造成美联储牺牲经济的前提大幅加息的原因是突然爆发的地域冲突导致，这也是拜登擅长的戏码，发战争财，当年伊拉克也是他发动的[笑哭]搞笑的民主党竟然是好战份子","html":"个人观点，加剧通胀问题从而造成美联储牺牲经济的前提大幅加息的原因是突然爆发的地域冲突导致，这也是拜登擅长的戏码，发战争财，当年伊拉克也是他发动的[笑哭]搞笑的民主党竟然是好战份子"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":22,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}