Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns

Bloomberg2021-11-03

(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally ...

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And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.\n“Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.\nHand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.\n“The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”\nFor now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.\nWhen real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.\nAll that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.\nWhile tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.\nWells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.\nOver at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. 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And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-03 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175618425","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.\nWith the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.\n“Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.\nHand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.\n“The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”\nFor now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.\nWhen real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.\nAll that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.\nWhile tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.\nWells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.\nOver at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.\n“If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.\nTo many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?\nThat conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.\nMeanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.\n“From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":841217846,"gmtCreate":1635914681068,"gmtModify":1635914681227,"author":{"id":"3581831647982295","authorId":"3581831647982295","name":"MoonMoon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7abc88bf78bc4fd17d5085b308a74c4d","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581831647982295","idStr":"3581831647982295"},"htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841217846","repostId":1175618425,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175618425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635910485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175618425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175618425","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 20","content":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-03 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175618425","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.\nWith the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.\n“Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.\nHand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.\n“The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”\nFor now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.\nWhen real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.\nAll that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.\nWhile tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.\nWells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.\nOver at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.\n“If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.\nTo many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?\nThat conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.\nMeanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.\n“From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":841234433,"gmtCreate":1635913727447,"gmtModify":1635913727447,"author":{"id":"4089861821723520","authorId":"4089861821723520","name":"Huhu88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afaf32d53dd5ce37ce49c567be9cef05","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4089861821723520","idStr":"4089861821723520"},"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841234433","repostId":1175618425,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175618425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635910485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175618425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175618425","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 20","content":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-03 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175618425","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.\nWith the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.\n“Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.\nHand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.\n“The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”\nFor now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.\nWhen real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.\nAll that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.\nWhile tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.\nWells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.\nOver at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.\n“If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.\nTo many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?\nThat conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.\nMeanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.\n“From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":841204273,"gmtCreate":1635911723499,"gmtModify":1635911776064,"author":{"id":"3581567062635546","authorId":"3581567062635546","name":"huaigim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66751ea97b719c58cc4d85f52dee08be","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581567062635546","idStr":"3581567062635546"},"htmlText":"Well done","listText":"Well done","text":"Well done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841204273","repostId":1175618425,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175618425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635910485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175618425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175618425","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 20","content":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-03 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175618425","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.\nWith the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.\n“Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.\nHand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.\n“The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”\nFor now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.\nWhen real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.\nAll that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.\nWhile tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.\nWells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.\nOver at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.\n“If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.\nTo many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?\nThat conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.\nMeanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.\n“From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":841203148,"gmtCreate":1635911406208,"gmtModify":1635911406336,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582617881962608","idStr":"3582617881962608"},"htmlText":"Jialat","listText":"Jialat","text":"Jialat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841203148","repostId":1175618425,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175618425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635910485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175618425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175618425","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 20","content":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-03 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175618425","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.\nWith the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.\n“Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.\nHand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.\n“The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”\nFor now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.\nWhen real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.\nAll that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.\nWhile tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.\nWells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.\nOver at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.\n“If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.\nTo many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?\nThat conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.\nMeanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.\n“From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":841200898,"gmtCreate":1635911251536,"gmtModify":1635911251652,"author":{"id":"3578952819778047","authorId":"3578952819778047","name":"joannec","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578952819778047","idStr":"3578952819778047"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841200898","repostId":1175618425,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175618425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635910485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175618425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175618425","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 20","content":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-03 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175618425","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.\nWith the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.\n“Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.\nHand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.\n“The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”\nFor now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.\nWhen real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.\nAll that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.\nWhile tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.\nWells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.\nOver at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.\n“If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.\nTo many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?\nThat conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.\nMeanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.\n“From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":841676648,"gmtCreate":1635910865986,"gmtModify":1635910866238,"author":{"id":"3581588474178431","authorId":"3581588474178431","name":"38341f8e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581588474178431","idStr":"3581588474178431"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841676648","repostId":1175618425,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175618425","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635910485,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175618425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-03 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175618425","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 20","content":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Real-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReal-Rate Reckoning Is Coming for Big Tech, Wells Fargo Warns<blockquote>富国银行警告称，大型科技公司的实际利率计算即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBloomberg2021-11-03 11:34\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.<blockquote>（彭博社）——大型科技股可能会顶住2020年4月以来最大的债券波动，但一群华尔街策略师警告称，实际利率飙升最终可能会将它们从历史高点击垮。</blockquote> With the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.<blockquote>随着美联储本周可能宣布削减大流行刺激措施，富国银行证券(Wells Fargo Securities)最新警告称，经通胀调整的收益率“大幅”上升的可能性越来越大。这可能会给昂贵的科技股带来痛苦，特别是考虑到它们与国债市场阴谋的密切联系。</blockquote> “Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>Christopher Harvey领导的团队在周二的一份报告中写道：“我们在科技领域的交易看涨期权可能面临风险，尤其是‘高辛烷值’的股票。”</blockquote> Hand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.<blockquote>华尔街对债券市场对科技股的威胁感到绝望并不是什么新鲜事。这次的不同之处在于，美国国债的波动正达到极端。最近几周，市场衍生的通胀预期有所上升，而名义收益率的变化却没有那么快，导致实际利率跌至历史低点附近。目前，这正在推高科技股的估值，但逆转可能会引发无序走势。</blockquote> “The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”<blockquote>富国银行的报告称：“美联储本周预期的taper公告可能会催化实际利率发生重大方向性变化。”“我们相信最终的实际/盈亏平衡回归将是急剧的。”</blockquote> For now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.<blockquote>目前，科技股似乎与所有其他股票一起上涨。纳斯达克100指数、标普500、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000指数周二均收于历史新高。</blockquote> When real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.<blockquote>当实际收益率跌至谷底时，未来利润会以较低的利率贴现，从而推高被认为能够在未来几年增加收益的股票的估值。这就是为什么低利率提振了量化看涨期权成长型股票，其中典型的是特斯拉公司或Netflix公司等顺应结构性趋势的科技股。</blockquote> All that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.<blockquote>所有这些都帮助纳斯达克100指数在本季度跑赢大盘，富国银行自己的一篮子“不惜一切代价增长”股票上涨13%，创下另一项纪录。</blockquote> While tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.<blockquote>尽管科技在过去十年的低通胀世界中占据主导地位，但其最近的上涨是在人们对消费者价格增长日益担忧的背景下发生的。随着盈亏平衡利率上升，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale SA)一篮子随生活成本上涨的股票刚刚创下了自2月份以来最好的月份。</blockquote> Wells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.<blockquote>富国银行并不是唯一一家对大型科技公司的前景发出警报的银行。上一次美联储开始撤回刺激措施时，就在其资产负债表再次扩张之前，实际利率开始大幅上升。摩根士丹利财富管理公司(Morgan Stanley Wealth Management)首席投资官丽莎·沙利特(Lisa Shalett)上周警告称，鉴于目前这些收益率的负值，“长期资产（例如在主要指数中占据主导地位的大型成长型股票）可能会出现重估”。</blockquote> Over at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.<blockquote>瑞银资产管理公司策略师卢克·卡瓦(Luke Kawa)表示，尽管押注货币紧缩即将到来，但实际收益率仍较低，因为交易员预计美联储最终会改变方针，否则经济将因此陷入困境。但与此同时，他表示，实际利率也可能上升，以反映更快的增长和通胀。后一种情况对顺周期股票敞口有利，但对市场整体估值不利。</blockquote> “If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.<blockquote>盛宝股票策略主管Peter Garnry表示：“如果世界正在进入一个通胀率持续上升的世界，而名义收益率突然反映出这一点，那么全球股票估值将重置至较低水平，导致股市大幅下跌。”银行，在周二的一份报告中写道。</blockquote> To many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?<blockquote>因此，对许多华尔街人士来说，科技投资受到宏观看涨期权的影响。世界是否正在走向一个有弹性的增长、更快的通胀和美联储收紧政策的时期——或者商业周期是否会在供应链瓶颈和刺激减少的压力下崩溃？</blockquote> That conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.<blockquote>这个难题在债券市场随处可见。尽管由于对美联储举措的预期，收益率曲线的短端变陡，但由于对增长的担忧，长端收益率曲线也同样大幅走平。</blockquote> Meanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&amp;P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.<blockquote>与此同时，期权衍生的国债波动性指标最近飙升至2020年4月以来的最高水平，而标普500的等值指标徘徊在去年崩盘前以来的最低水平附近。这表明固定收益市场可能正在向股市发出令人担忧的预兆。</blockquote> “From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”<blockquote>摩根士丹利财富的沙莱特写道：“从这里开始，我们进入了周期中期调整，随着预期的重新调整和政策正常化，涨幅将放缓。”“10%-15%修正的可能性正在增加。”</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html\">Bloomberg</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WFC":"富国银行"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-rate-reckoning-coming-big-141233636.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175618425","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Big Tech stocks may be defying the biggest outbreak of bond volatility since April 2020, but a cohort of Wall Street strategists warn that a spike in real interest rates could finally knock them from all-time highs.\nWith the Federal Reserve likely to announce the paring of pandemic stimulus this week, Wells Fargo Securities is the latest to warn that a “sharp” rise in inflation-adjusted yields is becoming ever-more probable. And that threatens to inflict pain on pricey tech stocks in particular given their tight link with Treasury-market machinations.\n“Our trading call on Tech may be at risk, especially across ‘high-octane’ names,” a team led by Christopher Harvey wrote in a Tuesday note.\nHand-wringing on Wall Street over the bond-market threat to tech equities is nothing new. The difference this time is that Treasury gyrations are hitting extremes. Market-derived inflation expectations have risen in recent weeks while nominal yields have yet to move as fast -- causing real rates to drop near record lows. That’s juicing tech valuations for now, but a reversal could spark disorderly moves.\n“The Fed’s anticipated taper announcement this week may potentially catalyze a significant directional change in real rates,” the Wells Fargo note said. “We believe the eventual real/break-even reversion will be sharp.”\nFor now, tech stocks are rallying along with seemingly every other equity. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Tuesday.\nWhen real yields fall to rock bottom, future profits are discounted at lower rates -- pushing up valuations of stocks deemed able to grow their earnings for years to come. That’s why low rates have buoyed what quants call growth stocks, epitomized by tech names riding structural trends like Tesla Inc. or Netflix Inc.\nAll that has helped the Nasdaq 100 to outperform this quarter and Wells Fargo’s own basket of “growth at any price” shares jump 13% toward another record.\nWhile tech has dominated in the low-inflation world of the past decade, its recent rally has taken place against the backdrop of growing anxiety over consumer-price growth. As breakeven rates rose, a Societe Generale SA basket of stocks that gain with the cost of living just posted its best month since February.\nWells Fargo is hardly alone in sounding the alarm on the outlook for Big Tech. The last time the Fed started to withdraw stimulus, real rates began rising sharply just before its balance sheet expanded again. Given how negative those yields are now, “a revaluation may be ahead for long-duration assets like the megacap growth stocks that dominate the major indexes,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management warned last week.\nOver at UBS Asset Management, strategist Luke Kawa suggests real yields are low despite bets on imminent monetary tightening because traders expect the Fed to reverse course eventually or the economy to tank as a result. At the same time though, he says real rates could also gain to reflect faster growth and inflation. The latter scenario would be good for the pro-cyclical stock exposures but bad for the market’s overall valuations.\n“If the world is moving into a world of a sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflect that, then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote in a Tuesday note.\nTo many on Wall Street, tech investing is therefore at the mercy of a macro call. Is the world heading for a period of resilient growth, faster inflation and tighter Fed policy -- or will the business cycle buckle under the pressure of supply-chain bottlenecks and reduced stimulus?\nThat conundrum is everywhere in the bond market. While the shorter-end of the yield curve steepened in anticipation of the Fed move, the longer-end has flattened just as aggressively amid growth fears.\nMeanwhile, an option-derived gauge of Treasury volatility recently surged to the highest since April 2020, while the S&P 500’s equivalent hovers close to the lowest since before the crash last year. It’s a sign the fixed-income market may be telegraphing worrying omens for stocks.\n“From here we enter the midcycle adjustment, where gains moderate as expectations get recalibrated and policy normalizes,” Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth wrote. “Odds of a 10%-15% correction are increasing.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":93,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}