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Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation

seekingalpha2021-08-06

Summary Microsoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. By and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance. Technically, the company's...

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Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCalm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-06 15:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation>seekingalpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"MSFT","symbol_name":"微软","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation","article_id":"1172440547","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172440547","pubTimestamp":1628233708,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"translate_title":"冷静、深沉、多能看微软估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntro\nThis article provides a comprehensive look at Microsoft's (MSFT)\n#1 First impression of quarterly results\nMicrosoft's quarterly net income rose by 47% YoY and revenue by 21.35%, beating analysts' expectations for the tenth straight quarter. But the most surprising thing is that the company has grown in almost all directions.\nLinkedIn revenue grew 46% due to 97% growth in LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Revenue from server products and cloud services increased by 34% due to the growth of Azure by 51%. Revenue from sales of Dynamics products increased by 33%, Intelligent Cloud by 30% and by 25% Productivity and Business Processes. Revenue from commercial products Office and Windows increased by 20%:\nSource: Microsoft\nRevenue from devices of the Surface family fell by 20%. But this is probably due to a general deficiency of components.\nAll this led to the fact that the company's revenue turned out to be higher than its long-term trend, which is a sign ofaccelerating growth:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\n#2 Price vs. Growth\nConsidering Microsoft's capitalization as a function in which revenue is the independent variable, we get a model that indicates a slightly overvalued company present price:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nWe get the same result by considering EPS as the independent variable:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nHowever, the most qualitative model (R^2=0.98) in this case is built on the basis of Free Cash Flow. And this model indicates an almost perfect balanced state of the company's capitalization:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nInterestingly enough, the EV/FCF multiple has responded well to Microsoft's Free Cash Flow growth rate over the past six years. And, as the following graph shows, the current growth rate of this indicatorperfectly justifies Microsoft's capitalization:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nI understand that this is a very simplified view of the company's valuation, but in this context, Microsoft's capitalization is now balanced. In other words, the market has already reflected the company's quarterly results in price.Digging deeper...\n#3 Comparative Valuation\nIn the context of the comparative analysis, I only trust forward multiples and, ideally, adjusted for the expected growth rate. This is because the market is always focused on the future and companies are best compared at the same point in their life cycle. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of forward multiples, which are adjusted for the expected growth rate of the basic indicator.\nSo, this is what we get analyzing the forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAnd this is what we get analyzing the forward P/E (next FY) multiple:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn both cases, comparing Microsoft to a broad sample of American technology companies, we get a result close to the company's current share price. Again, we draw a conclusion about the balanced state of the current price.\n#4 Discounted Cash Flow Model\nWhen predicting Microsoft's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations of analysts. But, even in the historical context, I consider it adequate to expect that the average annual growth rate of the company's revenue in the next 10 years will be about 12%.\nData by YCharts\nThe operating margin of MSFT is relatively very high now:\nData by YCharts\nBut I find it wrong to assume that Microsoft's operating margins will continue to grow in the future. First, because the dynamics of this indicator is cyclical in nature. Secondly, where there is a high margin, competition inevitably grows. Therefore, the model includes a forecast of a gradual decrease in the operating margin to a more adequate 33%.\nHere is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nSome notes on the WACC calculation:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equity risk\nI used the current value\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 divided by the debt value for the same years.\n\nOther important parameters of the model are as follows:\n\nThe relative size of CAPEX is assumed to be 10.7%, which is close to the long-term average.\nThe tax rate is assumed to be 26%, which is close to the world average.\n\nFinally, here is the model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe model shows Microsoft is undervalued by 8%. In fact, we once again state the balanced level of the company's capitalization.\n#5 Dividend Discount Model\nAs a basis for Microsoft's Dividend Discount Model, I took the average expectations of analysts regarding the company's EPS in the next decade. But this is not enough to predict the net income, because it is still necessary to predict the number of shares.\nThe number of Microsoft's diluted shares has been declining since 2012. Although the rate of decline has slowed down over the past two years:\nData by YCharts\nI proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.\nAmong the other parameters, I want to highlight the following:\n\nIn the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last three years (35%).\nIn the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).\n\nHere is the model:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price is 23% less than current levels. But, as long as the company has the potential for free cash flow growth, I think dividends are not the key motivation for investors. Therefore, in this case, this is a very strong result. For example, in the case of Apple (AAPL), things are much worse.\n#6 Technical picture\nMicrosoft stock has been following an exponential trend over the past decade:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn this case, in order to highlight the usual linear channels, one should consider the graph with the logarithmic Y-axis:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn this case, we are clearly fixing the movement in the ascending channel. Moreover, the price is now at the upper border of this channel. In fact, this means a strong zone of resistance.In such cases, it is appropriate to expect a sideways trend or even a correction:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nBottom line\nSo, I tried to look as versatile as possible at Microsoft in the light of the latest quarterly report and summarize the following:\n\nThe company continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. In my opinion, this is the main condition for expecting capitalization growth.\nFundamentally, the company is not undervalued. This means that, by and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that we need to calmly accept the fact that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results. At the same time, the long-term upward trend remains relevant.\nI would also like to note the fact that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Microsoft dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $220. And this is anexcellent result, considering that the company continues to grow in quantitative terms. This is a kind of bonus that a long-term investor will receive in addition to the likely increase in the share price.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":891856545,"gmtCreate":1628381834587,"gmtModify":1633751402687,"author":{"id":"3582948757581957","authorId":"3582948757581957","name":"GrowGrowGrow","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582948757581957","authorIdStr":"3582948757581957"},"htmlText":"Grow Grow Grow&nbsp;","listText":"Grow Grow Grow&nbsp;","text":"Grow Grow Grow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891856545","repostId":1172440547,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172440547","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628233708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172440547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 15:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation<blockquote>冷静、深刻、多才多艺地看待微软估值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172440547","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Microsoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.</li> <li>By and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li> <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>微软持续增长。而且，它正在加速。</li><li>总体而言，公司最近的一季报提前反映在公司的价格中。</li><li>从技术上看，公司股价目前已经触及天花板。这意味着，尽管季度业绩出色，但近期很可能出现横盘走势。</li></ul>HJBC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Intro<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> This article provides a comprehensive look at Microsoft's (MSFT)<blockquote>本文全面介绍了微软(MSFT)</blockquote> #1 First impression of quarterly results<blockquote>#1季度业绩第一印象</blockquote> Microsoft's quarterly net income rose by 47% YoY and revenue by 21.35%, beating analysts' expectations for the tenth straight quarter. But the most surprising thing is that the company has grown in almost all directions.<blockquote>微软季度净利润同比增长47%，营收增长21.35%，连续第十个季度超出分析师预期。但最令人惊讶的是，该公司几乎向各个方向发展。</blockquote> LinkedIn revenue grew 46% due to 97% growth in LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Revenue from server products and cloud services increased by 34% due to the growth of Azure by 51%. Revenue from sales of Dynamics products increased by 33%, Intelligent Cloud by 30% and by 25% Productivity and Business Processes. Revenue from commercial products Office and Windows increased by 20%:<blockquote>由于LinkedIn营销解决方案增长了97%，LinkedIn收入增长了46%。由于Azure增长51%，服务器产品和云服务收入增长34%。Dynamics产品销售收入增长33%，智能云增长30%，生产力和业务流程增长25%。商业产品Office和Windows收入增长20%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2466fb5bb0bcbc5d36c348c80b29c90d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"561\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft<blockquote>资料来源：微软</blockquote> Revenue from devices of the Surface family fell by 20%. But this is probably due to a general deficiency of components.<blockquote>Surface家族设备的收入下降了20%。但这很可能是由于组件的普遍缺乏。</blockquote> All this led to the fact that the company's revenue turned out to be higher than its long-term trend, which is a sign ofaccelerating growth:<blockquote>所有这些导致该公司的收入高于其长期趋势，这是一个迹象加速增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bb7b9f7eb1cd9c05b38fba154eb5937\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> #2 Price vs. Growth<blockquote>#2价格与增长</blockquote> Considering Microsoft's capitalization as a function in which revenue is the independent variable, we get a model that indicates a slightly overvalued company present price:<blockquote>将微软的资本化视为收入为自变量的函数，我们得到一个模型，表明公司现价略有高估：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05c77cc215e2c37c59910671b49cebc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> We get the same result by considering EPS as the independent variable:<blockquote>通过考虑EPS作为自变量，我们得到相同的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54a36ec5fc53c984fb0db1e802bd900\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> However, the most qualitative model (R^2=0.98) in this case is built on the basis of Free Cash Flow. And this model indicates an almost perfect balanced state of the company's capitalization:<blockquote>然而，这种情况下最定性的模型（R^2=0.98）是建立在自由现金流的基础上的。而这个模型表明了公司资本化近乎完美的平衡状态：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c02d926d626494b75b6ee0e4d9d5d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> Interestingly enough, the EV/FCF multiple has responded well to Microsoft's Free Cash Flow growth rate over the past six years. And, as the following graph shows, the current growth rate of this indicatorperfectly justifies Microsoft's capitalization:<blockquote>有趣的是，EV/FCF倍数在过去六年中对微软的自由现金流增长率反应良好。并且，如下图所示，该指标目前的增长率完美地证明了微软的资本化：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e75b0d8abc1a4911b76450a76011b11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> I understand that this is a very simplified view of the company's valuation, but in this context, Microsoft's capitalization is now balanced. In other words, the market has already reflected the company's quarterly results in price.Digging deeper...<blockquote>我知道这是对公司估值的非常简化的看法，但在这种背景下，微软的市值现在是平衡的。也就是说，市场已经在价格上反映了公司的季度业绩。深入挖掘...</blockquote> #3 Comparative Valuation<blockquote>#3比较估值</blockquote> In the context of the comparative analysis, I only trust forward multiples and, ideally, adjusted for the expected growth rate. This is because the market is always focused on the future and companies are best compared at the same point in their life cycle. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of forward multiples, which are adjusted for the expected growth rate of the basic indicator.<blockquote>在比较分析的背景下，我只相信远期倍数，并且理想情况下，根据预期增长率进行调整。这是因为市场总是关注未来，公司最好在其生命周期的同一点进行比较。解决这一问题的方法之一是使用远期倍数，这些倍数是根据基本指标的预期增长率进行调整的。</blockquote> So, this is what we get analyzing the forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple:<blockquote>因此，这就是我们分析远期市盈率与增长（下一财年）倍数的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a65905afed4c1bbbd94d389a290605\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed8dcb7352d7178668392ff949df60b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> And this is what we get analyzing the forward P/E (next FY) multiple:<blockquote>这就是我们分析远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数得到的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edfc59bd30dc9a219c894d057f94dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b407508ae95e7b072fd09517db4e3931\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> In both cases, comparing Microsoft to a broad sample of American technology companies, we get a result close to the company's current share price. Again, we draw a conclusion about the balanced state of the current price.<blockquote>在这两种情况下，将微软与美国科技公司的广泛样本进行比较，我们得到的结果接近该公司当前的股价。我们再次得出关于当前价格均衡状态的结论。</blockquote> #4 Discounted Cash Flow Model<blockquote>#4贴现现金流模型</blockquote> When predicting Microsoft's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts. But, even in the historical context, I consider it adequate to expect that the average annual growth rate of the company's revenue in the next 10 years will be about 12%.<blockquote>在预测微软未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发。但是，即使在历史背景下，我认为预计公司未来10年收入的年均增长率约为12%就足够了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad53456538717d62c367fd15d74ffd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> The operating margin of MSFT is relatively very high now:<blockquote>MSFT现在的营业利润率相对非常高：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01c0a53deb1508eec2241f6d35ec762\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> But I find it wrong to assume that Microsoft's operating margins will continue to grow in the future. First, because the dynamics of this indicator is cyclical in nature. Secondly, where there is a high margin, competition inevitably grows. Therefore, the model includes a forecast of a gradual decrease in the operating margin to a more adequate 33%.<blockquote>但我发现，假设微软的营业利润率未来将继续增长是错误的。首先，因为该指标的动态本质上是周期性的。其次，利润率高的地方，竞争必然会加剧。因此，该模型包括营业利润率逐渐下降至更合适的33%的预测。</blockquote> Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:<blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e8d89ca266026af026dcf4cc69ae9bf\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> Some notes on the WACC calculation:<blockquote>关于WACC计算的一些注意事项：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equity&nbsp;risk</li> <li>I used the current&nbsp;value</li> <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li> </ul> Other important parameters of the model are as follows:<blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了股票风险值</li><li>我用了当前值</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2020年和2021年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>模型的其他重要参数如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The relative size of CAPEX is assumed to be 10.7%, which is close to the long-term average.</li> <li>The tax rate is assumed to be 26%, which is close to the world&nbsp;average.</li> </ul> Finally, here is the model itself:<blockquote><ul><li>资本支出的相对规模假设为10.7%，接近长期平均水平。</li><li>税率假设为26%，接近世界平均水平。</li></ul>最后，下面是模型本身：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150b2e6192363e51dcf7b6db50a60d42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> The model shows Microsoft is undervalued by 8%. In fact, we once again state the balanced level of the company's capitalization.<blockquote>该模型显示微软被低估了8%。事实上，我们再次陈述了公司资本化的平衡水平。</blockquote> #5 Dividend Discount Model<blockquote>#5股息贴现模型</blockquote> As a basis for Microsoft's Dividend Discount Model, I took the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;regarding the company's EPS in the next decade. But this is not enough to predict the net income, because it is still necessary to predict the number of shares.<blockquote>作为微软股息贴现模型的基础，我采用了分析师对公司未来十年每股收益的平均预期。但这不足以预测净收益，因为还需要预测股数。</blockquote> The number of Microsoft's diluted shares has been declining since 2012. Although the rate of decline has slowed down over the past two years:<blockquote>自2012年以来，微软稀释后的股份数量一直在下降。尽管过去两年下降速度有所放缓：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a94c5cbb5d3e066b4b6ae92a103c7f85\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.<blockquote>我假设过去两年的动态将持续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到72亿股。</blockquote> Among the other parameters, I want to highlight the following:<blockquote>在其他参数中，我想强调以下几点：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last three years (35%).</li> <li>In the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).</li> </ul> Here is the model:<blockquote><ul><li>在模型中，我假设派息率将保持在过去三年的平均水平（35%）。</li><li>在最后一年，我假设股息增长3.5%（GDP增长2%，通货膨胀率1.5%）。</li></ul>以下是型号：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bd13ccd121cc971801cc247b1e975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> The DDM-based target price is 23% less than current levels. But, as long as the company has the potential for free cash flow growth, I think dividends are not the key motivation for investors. Therefore, in this case, this is a very strong result. For example, in the&nbsp;case&nbsp;of Apple (AAPL), things are much worse.<blockquote>基于DDM的目标价比当前水平低23%。但是，只要公司有自由现金流增长的潜力，我认为股息就不是投资者的主要动机。因此，在这种情况下，这是一个非常强有力的结果。例如，在 箱子 苹果（AAPL）的情况要糟糕得多。</blockquote> #6 Technical picture<blockquote>#6技术图片</blockquote> Microsoft stock has been following an exponential trend over the past decade:<blockquote>微软股票在过去十年中一直遵循指数趋势：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0378e41b0b4020eb0425bb0470747f48\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> In this case, in order to highlight the usual linear channels, one should consider the graph with the logarithmic Y-axis:<blockquote>在这种情况下，为了突出显示通常的线性通道，应该考虑具有对数Y轴的图形：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019f435ae39ceee2cb122098609d9072\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> In this case, we are clearly fixing the movement in the ascending channel. Moreover, the price is now at the upper border of this channel. In fact, this means a strong zone of resistance.In such cases, it is appropriate to expect a sideways trend or even a correction:<blockquote>在这种情况下，我们显然是在修复上升通道中的运动。而且，价格现在处于这个通道的上边界。事实上，这意味着一个强大的阻力区。在这种情况下，预期横盘趋势甚至修正是合适的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369d216317a2215986670a5e6a16862b\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> Bottom line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> So, I tried to look as versatile as possible at Microsoft in the light of the latest quarterly report and summarize the following:<blockquote>因此，我试图根据最新的季度报告在微软看起来尽可能多才多艺，并总结如下：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. In my opinion, this is the main condition for expecting capitalization growth.</li> <li>Fundamentally, the company is not undervalued. This means that, by and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li> <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that we need to calmly accept the fact that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results. At the same time, the long-term upward trend remains relevant.</li> <li>I would also like to note the fact that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Microsoft dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $220. And this is anexcellent result, considering that the company continues to grow in quantitative terms. This is a kind of bonus that a long-term investor will receive in addition to the likely increase in the share price.</li> </ol><blockquote><ol><li>公司持续发展。而且，它正在加速。在我看来，这是预期资本化增长的主要条件。</li><li>从根本上说，公司并没有被低估。这意味着，总的来说，公司最近的一季报提前反映在了公司的价格中。</li><li>从技术上看，公司股价目前已经触及天花板。这意味着我们需要冷静地接受这样一个事实，即尽管季度业绩非常出色，但在不久的将来，横盘走势是相当可能的。与此同时，长期上升趋势仍然具有相关性。</li><li>我还想指出的是，考虑到当前的资本成本，所有潜在微软股息的现值假设公司的公平价格为220美元。这是一个优异的成绩，考虑到公司在数量上持续增长。这是长期投资者除了股价可能上涨之外还会获得的一种奖金。</li></ol></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation<blockquote>冷静、深刻、多才多艺地看待微软估值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCalm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation<blockquote>冷静、深刻、多才多艺地看待微软估值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-08-06 15:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Microsoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.</li> <li>By and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li> <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>微软持续增长。而且，它正在加速。</li><li>总体而言，公司最近的一季报提前反映在公司的价格中。</li><li>从技术上看，公司股价目前已经触及天花板。这意味着，尽管季度业绩出色，但近期很可能出现横盘走势。</li></ul>HJBC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Intro<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> This article provides a comprehensive look at Microsoft's (MSFT)<blockquote>本文全面介绍了微软(MSFT)</blockquote> #1 First impression of quarterly results<blockquote>#1季度业绩第一印象</blockquote> Microsoft's quarterly net income rose by 47% YoY and revenue by 21.35%, beating analysts' expectations for the tenth straight quarter. But the most surprising thing is that the company has grown in almost all directions.<blockquote>微软季度净利润同比增长47%，营收增长21.35%，连续第十个季度超出分析师预期。但最令人惊讶的是，该公司几乎向各个方向发展。</blockquote> LinkedIn revenue grew 46% due to 97% growth in LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Revenue from server products and cloud services increased by 34% due to the growth of Azure by 51%. Revenue from sales of Dynamics products increased by 33%, Intelligent Cloud by 30% and by 25% Productivity and Business Processes. Revenue from commercial products Office and Windows increased by 20%:<blockquote>由于LinkedIn营销解决方案增长了97%，LinkedIn收入增长了46%。由于Azure增长51%，服务器产品和云服务收入增长34%。Dynamics产品销售收入增长33%，智能云增长30%，生产力和业务流程增长25%。商业产品Office和Windows收入增长20%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2466fb5bb0bcbc5d36c348c80b29c90d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"561\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft<blockquote>资料来源：微软</blockquote> Revenue from devices of the Surface family fell by 20%. But this is probably due to a general deficiency of components.<blockquote>Surface家族设备的收入下降了20%。但这很可能是由于组件的普遍缺乏。</blockquote> All this led to the fact that the company's revenue turned out to be higher than its long-term trend, which is a sign ofaccelerating growth:<blockquote>所有这些导致该公司的收入高于其长期趋势，这是一个迹象加速增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bb7b9f7eb1cd9c05b38fba154eb5937\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> #2 Price vs. Growth<blockquote>#2价格与增长</blockquote> Considering Microsoft's capitalization as a function in which revenue is the independent variable, we get a model that indicates a slightly overvalued company present price:<blockquote>将微软的资本化视为收入为自变量的函数，我们得到一个模型，表明公司现价略有高估：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05c77cc215e2c37c59910671b49cebc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> We get the same result by considering EPS as the independent variable:<blockquote>通过考虑EPS作为自变量，我们得到相同的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54a36ec5fc53c984fb0db1e802bd900\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> However, the most qualitative model (R^2=0.98) in this case is built on the basis of Free Cash Flow. And this model indicates an almost perfect balanced state of the company's capitalization:<blockquote>然而，这种情况下最定性的模型（R^2=0.98）是建立在自由现金流的基础上的。而这个模型表明了公司资本化近乎完美的平衡状态：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c02d926d626494b75b6ee0e4d9d5d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> Interestingly enough, the EV/FCF multiple has responded well to Microsoft's Free Cash Flow growth rate over the past six years. And, as the following graph shows, the current growth rate of this indicatorperfectly justifies Microsoft's capitalization:<blockquote>有趣的是，EV/FCF倍数在过去六年中对微软的自由现金流增长率反应良好。并且，如下图所示，该指标目前的增长率完美地证明了微软的资本化：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e75b0d8abc1a4911b76450a76011b11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> I understand that this is a very simplified view of the company's valuation, but in this context, Microsoft's capitalization is now balanced. In other words, the market has already reflected the company's quarterly results in price.Digging deeper...<blockquote>我知道这是对公司估值的非常简化的看法，但在这种背景下，微软的市值现在是平衡的。也就是说，市场已经在价格上反映了公司的季度业绩。深入挖掘...</blockquote> #3 Comparative Valuation<blockquote>#3比较估值</blockquote> In the context of the comparative analysis, I only trust forward multiples and, ideally, adjusted for the expected growth rate. This is because the market is always focused on the future and companies are best compared at the same point in their life cycle. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of forward multiples, which are adjusted for the expected growth rate of the basic indicator.<blockquote>在比较分析的背景下，我只相信远期倍数，并且理想情况下，根据预期增长率进行调整。这是因为市场总是关注未来，公司最好在其生命周期的同一点进行比较。解决这一问题的方法之一是使用远期倍数，这些倍数是根据基本指标的预期增长率进行调整的。</blockquote> So, this is what we get analyzing the forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple:<blockquote>因此，这就是我们分析远期市盈率与增长（下一财年）倍数的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a65905afed4c1bbbd94d389a290605\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed8dcb7352d7178668392ff949df60b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> And this is what we get analyzing the forward P/E (next FY) multiple:<blockquote>这就是我们分析远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数得到的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edfc59bd30dc9a219c894d057f94dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b407508ae95e7b072fd09517db4e3931\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> In both cases, comparing Microsoft to a broad sample of American technology companies, we get a result close to the company's current share price. Again, we draw a conclusion about the balanced state of the current price.<blockquote>在这两种情况下，将微软与美国科技公司的广泛样本进行比较，我们得到的结果接近该公司当前的股价。我们再次得出关于当前价格均衡状态的结论。</blockquote> #4 Discounted Cash Flow Model<blockquote>#4贴现现金流模型</blockquote> When predicting Microsoft's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts. But, even in the historical context, I consider it adequate to expect that the average annual growth rate of the company's revenue in the next 10 years will be about 12%.<blockquote>在预测微软未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发。但是，即使在历史背景下，我认为预计公司未来10年收入的年均增长率约为12%就足够了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad53456538717d62c367fd15d74ffd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> The operating margin of MSFT is relatively very high now:<blockquote>MSFT现在的营业利润率相对非常高：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01c0a53deb1508eec2241f6d35ec762\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> But I find it wrong to assume that Microsoft's operating margins will continue to grow in the future. First, because the dynamics of this indicator is cyclical in nature. Secondly, where there is a high margin, competition inevitably grows. Therefore, the model includes a forecast of a gradual decrease in the operating margin to a more adequate 33%.<blockquote>但我发现，假设微软的营业利润率未来将继续增长是错误的。首先，因为该指标的动态本质上是周期性的。其次，利润率高的地方，竞争必然会加剧。因此，该模型包括营业利润率逐渐下降至更合适的33%的预测。</blockquote> Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:<blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e8d89ca266026af026dcf4cc69ae9bf\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> Some notes on the WACC calculation:<blockquote>关于WACC计算的一些注意事项：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equity&nbsp;risk</li> <li>I used the current&nbsp;value</li> <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li> </ul> Other important parameters of the model are as follows:<blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了股票风险值</li><li>我用了当前值</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2020年和2021年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>模型的其他重要参数如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The relative size of CAPEX is assumed to be 10.7%, which is close to the long-term average.</li> <li>The tax rate is assumed to be 26%, which is close to the world&nbsp;average.</li> </ul> Finally, here is the model itself:<blockquote><ul><li>资本支出的相对规模假设为10.7%，接近长期平均水平。</li><li>税率假设为26%，接近世界平均水平。</li></ul>最后，下面是模型本身：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150b2e6192363e51dcf7b6db50a60d42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> The model shows Microsoft is undervalued by 8%. In fact, we once again state the balanced level of the company's capitalization.<blockquote>该模型显示微软被低估了8%。事实上，我们再次陈述了公司资本化的平衡水平。</blockquote> #5 Dividend Discount Model<blockquote>#5股息贴现模型</blockquote> As a basis for Microsoft's Dividend Discount Model, I took the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;regarding the company's EPS in the next decade. But this is not enough to predict the net income, because it is still necessary to predict the number of shares.<blockquote>作为微软股息贴现模型的基础，我采用了分析师对公司未来十年每股收益的平均预期。但这不足以预测净收益，因为还需要预测股数。</blockquote> The number of Microsoft's diluted shares has been declining since 2012. Although the rate of decline has slowed down over the past two years:<blockquote>自2012年以来，微软稀释后的股份数量一直在下降。尽管过去两年下降速度有所放缓：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a94c5cbb5d3e066b4b6ae92a103c7f85\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.<blockquote>我假设过去两年的动态将持续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到72亿股。</blockquote> Among the other parameters, I want to highlight the following:<blockquote>在其他参数中，我想强调以下几点：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last three years (35%).</li> <li>In the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).</li> </ul> Here is the model:<blockquote><ul><li>在模型中，我假设派息率将保持在过去三年的平均水平（35%）。</li><li>在最后一年，我假设股息增长3.5%（GDP增长2%，通货膨胀率1.5%）。</li></ul>以下是型号：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bd13ccd121cc971801cc247b1e975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> The DDM-based target price is 23% less than current levels. But, as long as the company has the potential for free cash flow growth, I think dividends are not the key motivation for investors. Therefore, in this case, this is a very strong result. For example, in the&nbsp;case&nbsp;of Apple (AAPL), things are much worse.<blockquote>基于DDM的目标价比当前水平低23%。但是，只要公司有自由现金流增长的潜力，我认为股息就不是投资者的主要动机。因此，在这种情况下，这是一个非常强有力的结果。例如，在 箱子 苹果（AAPL）的情况要糟糕得多。</blockquote> #6 Technical picture<blockquote>#6技术图片</blockquote> Microsoft stock has been following an exponential trend over the past decade:<blockquote>微软股票在过去十年中一直遵循指数趋势：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0378e41b0b4020eb0425bb0470747f48\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> In this case, in order to highlight the usual linear channels, one should consider the graph with the logarithmic Y-axis:<blockquote>在这种情况下，为了突出显示通常的线性通道，应该考虑具有对数Y轴的图形：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019f435ae39ceee2cb122098609d9072\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> In this case, we are clearly fixing the movement in the ascending channel. Moreover, the price is now at the upper border of this channel. In fact, this means a strong zone of resistance.In such cases, it is appropriate to expect a sideways trend or even a correction:<blockquote>在这种情况下，我们显然是在修复上升通道中的运动。而且，价格现在处于这个通道的上边界。事实上，这意味着一个强大的阻力区。在这种情况下，预期横盘趋势甚至修正是合适的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369d216317a2215986670a5e6a16862b\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> Bottom line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> So, I tried to look as versatile as possible at Microsoft in the light of the latest quarterly report and summarize the following:<blockquote>因此，我试图根据最新的季度报告在微软看起来尽可能多才多艺，并总结如下：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. In my opinion, this is the main condition for expecting capitalization growth.</li> <li>Fundamentally, the company is not undervalued. This means that, by and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li> <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that we need to calmly accept the fact that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results. At the same time, the long-term upward trend remains relevant.</li> <li>I would also like to note the fact that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Microsoft dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $220. And this is anexcellent result, considering that the company continues to grow in quantitative terms. This is a kind of bonus that a long-term investor will receive in addition to the likely increase in the share price.</li> </ol><blockquote><ol><li>公司持续发展。而且，它正在加速。在我看来，这是预期资本化增长的主要条件。</li><li>从根本上说，公司并没有被低估。这意味着，总的来说，公司最近的一季报提前反映在了公司的价格中。</li><li>从技术上看，公司股价目前已经触及天花板。这意味着我们需要冷静地接受这样一个事实，即尽管季度业绩非常出色，但在不久的将来，横盘走势是相当可能的。与此同时，长期上升趋势仍然具有相关性。</li><li>我还想指出的是，考虑到当前的资本成本，所有潜在微软股息的现值假设公司的公平价格为220美元。这是一个优异的成绩，考虑到公司在数量上持续增长。这是长期投资者除了股价可能上涨之外还会获得的一种奖金。</li></ol></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172440547","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntro\nThis article provides a comprehensive look at Microsoft's (MSFT)\n#1 First impression of quarterly results\nMicrosoft's quarterly net income rose by 47% YoY and revenue by 21.35%, beating analysts' expectations for the tenth straight quarter. But the most surprising thing is that the company has grown in almost all directions.\nLinkedIn revenue grew 46% due to 97% growth in LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Revenue from server products and cloud services increased by 34% due to the growth of Azure by 51%. Revenue from sales of Dynamics products increased by 33%, Intelligent Cloud by 30% and by 25% Productivity and Business Processes. Revenue from commercial products Office and Windows increased by 20%:\nSource: Microsoft\nRevenue from devices of the Surface family fell by 20%. But this is probably due to a general deficiency of components.\nAll this led to the fact that the company's revenue turned out to be higher than its long-term trend, which is a sign ofaccelerating growth:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\n#2 Price vs. Growth\nConsidering Microsoft's capitalization as a function in which revenue is the independent variable, we get a model that indicates a slightly overvalued company present price:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nWe get the same result by considering EPS as the independent variable:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nHowever, the most qualitative model (R^2=0.98) in this case is built on the basis of Free Cash Flow. And this model indicates an almost perfect balanced state of the company's capitalization:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nInterestingly enough, the EV/FCF multiple has responded well to Microsoft's Free Cash Flow growth rate over the past six years. And, as the following graph shows, the current growth rate of this indicatorperfectly justifies Microsoft's capitalization:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nI understand that this is a very simplified view of the company's valuation, but in this context, Microsoft's capitalization is now balanced. In other words, the market has already reflected the company's quarterly results in price.Digging deeper...\n#3 Comparative Valuation\nIn the context of the comparative analysis, I only trust forward multiples and, ideally, adjusted for the expected growth rate. This is because the market is always focused on the future and companies are best compared at the same point in their life cycle. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of forward multiples, which are adjusted for the expected growth rate of the basic indicator.\nSo, this is what we get analyzing the forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAnd this is what we get analyzing the forward P/E (next FY) multiple:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn both cases, comparing Microsoft to a broad sample of American technology companies, we get a result close to the company's current share price. Again, we draw a conclusion about the balanced state of the current price.\n#4 Discounted Cash Flow Model\nWhen predicting Microsoft's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations of analysts. But, even in the historical context, I consider it adequate to expect that the average annual growth rate of the company's revenue in the next 10 years will be about 12%.\nData by YCharts\nThe operating margin of MSFT is relatively very high now:\nData by YCharts\nBut I find it wrong to assume that Microsoft's operating margins will continue to grow in the future. First, because the dynamics of this indicator is cyclical in nature. Secondly, where there is a high margin, competition inevitably grows. Therefore, the model includes a forecast of a gradual decrease in the operating margin to a more adequate 33%.\nHere is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nSome notes on the WACC calculation:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equity risk\nI used the current value\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 divided by the debt value for the same years.\n\nOther important parameters of the model are as follows:\n\nThe relative size of CAPEX is assumed to be 10.7%, which is close to the long-term average.\nThe tax rate is assumed to be 26%, which is close to the world average.\n\nFinally, here is the model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe model shows Microsoft is undervalued by 8%. In fact, we once again state the balanced level of the company's capitalization.\n#5 Dividend Discount Model\nAs a basis for Microsoft's Dividend Discount Model, I took the average expectations of analysts regarding the company's EPS in the next decade. But this is not enough to predict the net income, because it is still necessary to predict the number of shares.\nThe number of Microsoft's diluted shares has been declining since 2012. Although the rate of decline has slowed down over the past two years:\nData by YCharts\nI proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.\nAmong the other parameters, I want to highlight the following:\n\nIn the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last three years (35%).\nIn the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).\n\nHere is the model:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price is 23% less than current levels. But, as long as the company has the potential for free cash flow growth, I think dividends are not the key motivation for investors. Therefore, in this case, this is a very strong result. For example, in the case of Apple (AAPL), things are much worse.\n#6 Technical picture\nMicrosoft stock has been following an exponential trend over the past decade:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn this case, in order to highlight the usual linear channels, one should consider the graph with the logarithmic Y-axis:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn this case, we are clearly fixing the movement in the ascending channel. Moreover, the price is now at the upper border of this channel. In fact, this means a strong zone of resistance.In such cases, it is appropriate to expect a sideways trend or even a correction:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nBottom line\nSo, I tried to look as versatile as possible at Microsoft in the light of the latest quarterly report and summarize the following:\n\nThe company continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. In my opinion, this is the main condition for expecting capitalization growth.\nFundamentally, the company is not undervalued. This means that, by and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that we need to calmly accept the fact that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results. At the same time, the long-term upward trend remains relevant.\nI would also like to note the fact that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Microsoft dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $220. And this is anexcellent result, considering that the company continues to grow in quantitative terms. This is a kind of bonus that a long-term investor will receive in addition to the likely increase in the share price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":893391578,"gmtCreate":1628236256494,"gmtModify":1633752353141,"author":{"id":"3561975876669218","authorId":"3561975876669218","name":"Huann","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3c08440569f5574b7f45ae2018c92","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561975876669218","authorIdStr":"3561975876669218"},"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893391578","repostId":1172440547,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172440547","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628233708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1172440547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-06 15:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation<blockquote>冷静、深刻、多才多艺地看待微软估值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172440547","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Microsoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.</li> <li>By and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li> <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>微软持续增长。而且，它正在加速。</li><li>总体而言，公司最近的一季报提前反映在公司的价格中。</li><li>从技术上看，公司股价目前已经触及天花板。这意味着，尽管季度业绩出色，但近期很可能出现横盘走势。</li></ul>HJBC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Intro<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> This article provides a comprehensive look at Microsoft's (MSFT)<blockquote>本文全面介绍了微软(MSFT)</blockquote> #1 First impression of quarterly results<blockquote>#1季度业绩第一印象</blockquote> Microsoft's quarterly net income rose by 47% YoY and revenue by 21.35%, beating analysts' expectations for the tenth straight quarter. But the most surprising thing is that the company has grown in almost all directions.<blockquote>微软季度净利润同比增长47%，营收增长21.35%，连续第十个季度超出分析师预期。但最令人惊讶的是，该公司几乎向各个方向发展。</blockquote> LinkedIn revenue grew 46% due to 97% growth in LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Revenue from server products and cloud services increased by 34% due to the growth of Azure by 51%. Revenue from sales of Dynamics products increased by 33%, Intelligent Cloud by 30% and by 25% Productivity and Business Processes. Revenue from commercial products Office and Windows increased by 20%:<blockquote>由于LinkedIn营销解决方案增长了97%，LinkedIn收入增长了46%。由于Azure增长51%，服务器产品和云服务收入增长34%。Dynamics产品销售收入增长33%，智能云增长30%，生产力和业务流程增长25%。商业产品Office和Windows收入增长20%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2466fb5bb0bcbc5d36c348c80b29c90d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"561\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft<blockquote>资料来源：微软</blockquote> Revenue from devices of the Surface family fell by 20%. But this is probably due to a general deficiency of components.<blockquote>Surface家族设备的收入下降了20%。但这很可能是由于组件的普遍缺乏。</blockquote> All this led to the fact that the company's revenue turned out to be higher than its long-term trend, which is a sign ofaccelerating growth:<blockquote>所有这些导致该公司的收入高于其长期趋势，这是一个迹象加速增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bb7b9f7eb1cd9c05b38fba154eb5937\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> #2 Price vs. Growth<blockquote>#2价格与增长</blockquote> Considering Microsoft's capitalization as a function in which revenue is the independent variable, we get a model that indicates a slightly overvalued company present price:<blockquote>将微软的资本化视为收入为自变量的函数，我们得到一个模型，表明公司现价略有高估：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05c77cc215e2c37c59910671b49cebc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> We get the same result by considering EPS as the independent variable:<blockquote>通过考虑EPS作为自变量，我们得到相同的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54a36ec5fc53c984fb0db1e802bd900\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> However, the most qualitative model (R^2=0.98) in this case is built on the basis of Free Cash Flow. And this model indicates an almost perfect balanced state of the company's capitalization:<blockquote>然而，这种情况下最定性的模型（R^2=0.98）是建立在自由现金流的基础上的。而这个模型表明了公司资本化近乎完美的平衡状态：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c02d926d626494b75b6ee0e4d9d5d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> Interestingly enough, the EV/FCF multiple has responded well to Microsoft's Free Cash Flow growth rate over the past six years. And, as the following graph shows, the current growth rate of this indicatorperfectly justifies Microsoft's capitalization:<blockquote>有趣的是，EV/FCF倍数在过去六年中对微软的自由现金流增长率反应良好。并且，如下图所示，该指标目前的增长率完美地证明了微软的资本化：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e75b0d8abc1a4911b76450a76011b11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> I understand that this is a very simplified view of the company's valuation, but in this context, Microsoft's capitalization is now balanced. In other words, the market has already reflected the company's quarterly results in price.Digging deeper...<blockquote>我知道这是对公司估值的非常简化的看法，但在这种背景下，微软的市值现在是平衡的。也就是说，市场已经在价格上反映了公司的季度业绩。深入挖掘...</blockquote> #3 Comparative Valuation<blockquote>#3比较估值</blockquote> In the context of the comparative analysis, I only trust forward multiples and, ideally, adjusted for the expected growth rate. This is because the market is always focused on the future and companies are best compared at the same point in their life cycle. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of forward multiples, which are adjusted for the expected growth rate of the basic indicator.<blockquote>在比较分析的背景下，我只相信远期倍数，并且理想情况下，根据预期增长率进行调整。这是因为市场总是关注未来，公司最好在其生命周期的同一点进行比较。解决这一问题的方法之一是使用远期倍数，这些倍数是根据基本指标的预期增长率进行调整的。</blockquote> So, this is what we get analyzing the forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple:<blockquote>因此，这就是我们分析远期市盈率与增长（下一财年）倍数的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a65905afed4c1bbbd94d389a290605\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed8dcb7352d7178668392ff949df60b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> And this is what we get analyzing the forward P/E (next FY) multiple:<blockquote>这就是我们分析远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数得到的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edfc59bd30dc9a219c894d057f94dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b407508ae95e7b072fd09517db4e3931\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> In both cases, comparing Microsoft to a broad sample of American technology companies, we get a result close to the company's current share price. Again, we draw a conclusion about the balanced state of the current price.<blockquote>在这两种情况下，将微软与美国科技公司的广泛样本进行比较，我们得到的结果接近该公司当前的股价。我们再次得出关于当前价格均衡状态的结论。</blockquote> #4 Discounted Cash Flow Model<blockquote>#4贴现现金流模型</blockquote> When predicting Microsoft's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts. But, even in the historical context, I consider it adequate to expect that the average annual growth rate of the company's revenue in the next 10 years will be about 12%.<blockquote>在预测微软未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发。但是，即使在历史背景下，我认为预计公司未来10年收入的年均增长率约为12%就足够了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad53456538717d62c367fd15d74ffd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> The operating margin of MSFT is relatively very high now:<blockquote>MSFT现在的营业利润率相对非常高：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01c0a53deb1508eec2241f6d35ec762\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> But I find it wrong to assume that Microsoft's operating margins will continue to grow in the future. First, because the dynamics of this indicator is cyclical in nature. Secondly, where there is a high margin, competition inevitably grows. Therefore, the model includes a forecast of a gradual decrease in the operating margin to a more adequate 33%.<blockquote>但我发现，假设微软的营业利润率未来将继续增长是错误的。首先，因为该指标的动态本质上是周期性的。其次，利润率高的地方，竞争必然会加剧。因此，该模型包括营业利润率逐渐下降至更合适的33%的预测。</blockquote> Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:<blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e8d89ca266026af026dcf4cc69ae9bf\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> Some notes on the WACC calculation:<blockquote>关于WACC计算的一些注意事项：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equity&nbsp;risk</li> <li>I used the current&nbsp;value</li> <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li> </ul> Other important parameters of the model are as follows:<blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了股票风险值</li><li>我用了当前值</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2020年和2021年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>模型的其他重要参数如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The relative size of CAPEX is assumed to be 10.7%, which is close to the long-term average.</li> <li>The tax rate is assumed to be 26%, which is close to the world&nbsp;average.</li> </ul> Finally, here is the model itself:<blockquote><ul><li>资本支出的相对规模假设为10.7%，接近长期平均水平。</li><li>税率假设为26%，接近世界平均水平。</li></ul>最后，下面是模型本身：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150b2e6192363e51dcf7b6db50a60d42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> The model shows Microsoft is undervalued by 8%. In fact, we once again state the balanced level of the company's capitalization.<blockquote>该模型显示微软被低估了8%。事实上，我们再次陈述了公司资本化的平衡水平。</blockquote> #5 Dividend Discount Model<blockquote>#5股息贴现模型</blockquote> As a basis for Microsoft's Dividend Discount Model, I took the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;regarding the company's EPS in the next decade. But this is not enough to predict the net income, because it is still necessary to predict the number of shares.<blockquote>作为微软股息贴现模型的基础，我采用了分析师对公司未来十年每股收益的平均预期。但这不足以预测净收益，因为还需要预测股数。</blockquote> The number of Microsoft's diluted shares has been declining since 2012. Although the rate of decline has slowed down over the past two years:<blockquote>自2012年以来，微软稀释后的股份数量一直在下降。尽管过去两年下降速度有所放缓：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a94c5cbb5d3e066b4b6ae92a103c7f85\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.<blockquote>我假设过去两年的动态将持续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到72亿股。</blockquote> Among the other parameters, I want to highlight the following:<blockquote>在其他参数中，我想强调以下几点：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last three years (35%).</li> <li>In the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).</li> </ul> Here is the model:<blockquote><ul><li>在模型中，我假设派息率将保持在过去三年的平均水平（35%）。</li><li>在最后一年，我假设股息增长3.5%（GDP增长2%，通货膨胀率1.5%）。</li></ul>以下是型号：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bd13ccd121cc971801cc247b1e975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> The DDM-based target price is 23% less than current levels. But, as long as the company has the potential for free cash flow growth, I think dividends are not the key motivation for investors. Therefore, in this case, this is a very strong result. For example, in the&nbsp;case&nbsp;of Apple (AAPL), things are much worse.<blockquote>基于DDM的目标价比当前水平低23%。但是，只要公司有自由现金流增长的潜力，我认为股息就不是投资者的主要动机。因此，在这种情况下，这是一个非常强有力的结果。例如，在 箱子 苹果（AAPL）的情况要糟糕得多。</blockquote> #6 Technical picture<blockquote>#6技术图片</blockquote> Microsoft stock has been following an exponential trend over the past decade:<blockquote>微软股票在过去十年中一直遵循指数趋势：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0378e41b0b4020eb0425bb0470747f48\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> In this case, in order to highlight the usual linear channels, one should consider the graph with the logarithmic Y-axis:<blockquote>在这种情况下，为了突出显示通常的线性通道，应该考虑具有对数Y轴的图形：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019f435ae39ceee2cb122098609d9072\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> In this case, we are clearly fixing the movement in the ascending channel. Moreover, the price is now at the upper border of this channel. In fact, this means a strong zone of resistance.In such cases, it is appropriate to expect a sideways trend or even a correction:<blockquote>在这种情况下，我们显然是在修复上升通道中的运动。而且，价格现在处于这个通道的上边界。事实上，这意味着一个强大的阻力区。在这种情况下，预期横盘趋势甚至修正是合适的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369d216317a2215986670a5e6a16862b\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> Bottom line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> So, I tried to look as versatile as possible at Microsoft in the light of the latest quarterly report and summarize the following:<blockquote>因此，我试图根据最新的季度报告在微软看起来尽可能多才多艺，并总结如下：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. In my opinion, this is the main condition for expecting capitalization growth.</li> <li>Fundamentally, the company is not undervalued. This means that, by and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li> <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that we need to calmly accept the fact that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results. At the same time, the long-term upward trend remains relevant.</li> <li>I would also like to note the fact that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Microsoft dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $220. And this is anexcellent result, considering that the company continues to grow in quantitative terms. This is a kind of bonus that a long-term investor will receive in addition to the likely increase in the share price.</li> </ol><blockquote><ol><li>公司持续发展。而且，它正在加速。在我看来，这是预期资本化增长的主要条件。</li><li>从根本上说，公司并没有被低估。这意味着，总的来说，公司最近的一季报提前反映在了公司的价格中。</li><li>从技术上看，公司股价目前已经触及天花板。这意味着我们需要冷静地接受这样一个事实，即尽管季度业绩非常出色，但在不久的将来，横盘走势是相当可能的。与此同时，长期上升趋势仍然具有相关性。</li><li>我还想指出的是，考虑到当前的资本成本，所有潜在微软股息的现值假设公司的公平价格为220美元。这是一个优异的成绩，考虑到公司在数量上持续增长。这是长期投资者除了股价可能上涨之外还会获得的一种奖金。</li></ol></blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Calm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation<blockquote>冷静、深刻、多才多艺地看待微软估值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCalm, Deep, And Versatile Look At Microsoft Valuation<blockquote>冷静、深刻、多才多艺地看待微软估值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nseekingalpha2021-08-06 15:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Microsoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.</li> <li>By and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li> <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>微软持续增长。而且，它正在加速。</li><li>总体而言，公司最近的一季报提前反映在公司的价格中。</li><li>从技术上看，公司股价目前已经触及天花板。这意味着，尽管季度业绩出色，但近期很可能出现横盘走势。</li></ul>HJBC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</blockquote> Intro<blockquote>介绍</blockquote> This article provides a comprehensive look at Microsoft's (MSFT)<blockquote>本文全面介绍了微软(MSFT)</blockquote> #1 First impression of quarterly results<blockquote>#1季度业绩第一印象</blockquote> Microsoft's quarterly net income rose by 47% YoY and revenue by 21.35%, beating analysts' expectations for the tenth straight quarter. But the most surprising thing is that the company has grown in almost all directions.<blockquote>微软季度净利润同比增长47%，营收增长21.35%，连续第十个季度超出分析师预期。但最令人惊讶的是，该公司几乎向各个方向发展。</blockquote> LinkedIn revenue grew 46% due to 97% growth in LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Revenue from server products and cloud services increased by 34% due to the growth of Azure by 51%. Revenue from sales of Dynamics products increased by 33%, Intelligent Cloud by 30% and by 25% Productivity and Business Processes. Revenue from commercial products Office and Windows increased by 20%:<blockquote>由于LinkedIn营销解决方案增长了97%，LinkedIn收入增长了46%。由于Azure增长51%，服务器产品和云服务收入增长34%。Dynamics产品销售收入增长33%，智能云增长30%，生产力和业务流程增长25%。商业产品Office和Windows收入增长20%：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2466fb5bb0bcbc5d36c348c80b29c90d\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"561\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Microsoft<blockquote>资料来源：微软</blockquote> Revenue from devices of the Surface family fell by 20%. But this is probably due to a general deficiency of components.<blockquote>Surface家族设备的收入下降了20%。但这很可能是由于组件的普遍缺乏。</blockquote> All this led to the fact that the company's revenue turned out to be higher than its long-term trend, which is a sign ofaccelerating growth:<blockquote>所有这些导致该公司的收入高于其长期趋势，这是一个迹象加速增长：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bb7b9f7eb1cd9c05b38fba154eb5937\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> #2 Price vs. Growth<blockquote>#2价格与增长</blockquote> Considering Microsoft's capitalization as a function in which revenue is the independent variable, we get a model that indicates a slightly overvalued company present price:<blockquote>将微软的资本化视为收入为自变量的函数，我们得到一个模型，表明公司现价略有高估：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05c77cc215e2c37c59910671b49cebc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> We get the same result by considering EPS as the independent variable:<blockquote>通过考虑EPS作为自变量，我们得到相同的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54a36ec5fc53c984fb0db1e802bd900\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> However, the most qualitative model (R^2=0.98) in this case is built on the basis of Free Cash Flow. And this model indicates an almost perfect balanced state of the company's capitalization:<blockquote>然而，这种情况下最定性的模型（R^2=0.98）是建立在自由现金流的基础上的。而这个模型表明了公司资本化近乎完美的平衡状态：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c02d926d626494b75b6ee0e4d9d5d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> Interestingly enough, the EV/FCF multiple has responded well to Microsoft's Free Cash Flow growth rate over the past six years. And, as the following graph shows, the current growth rate of this indicatorperfectly justifies Microsoft's capitalization:<blockquote>有趣的是，EV/FCF倍数在过去六年中对微软的自由现金流增长率反应良好。并且，如下图所示，该指标目前的增长率完美地证明了微软的资本化：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e75b0d8abc1a4911b76450a76011b11\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> I understand that this is a very simplified view of the company's valuation, but in this context, Microsoft's capitalization is now balanced. In other words, the market has already reflected the company's quarterly results in price.Digging deeper...<blockquote>我知道这是对公司估值的非常简化的看法，但在这种背景下，微软的市值现在是平衡的。也就是说，市场已经在价格上反映了公司的季度业绩。深入挖掘...</blockquote> #3 Comparative Valuation<blockquote>#3比较估值</blockquote> In the context of the comparative analysis, I only trust forward multiples and, ideally, adjusted for the expected growth rate. This is because the market is always focused on the future and companies are best compared at the same point in their life cycle. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of forward multiples, which are adjusted for the expected growth rate of the basic indicator.<blockquote>在比较分析的背景下，我只相信远期倍数，并且理想情况下，根据预期增长率进行调整。这是因为市场总是关注未来，公司最好在其生命周期的同一点进行比较。解决这一问题的方法之一是使用远期倍数，这些倍数是根据基本指标的预期增长率进行调整的。</blockquote> So, this is what we get analyzing the forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple:<blockquote>因此，这就是我们分析远期市盈率与增长（下一财年）倍数的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a65905afed4c1bbbd94d389a290605\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed8dcb7352d7178668392ff949df60b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> And this is what we get analyzing the forward P/E (next FY) multiple:<blockquote>这就是我们分析远期市盈率（下一财年）倍数得到的结果：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4edfc59bd30dc9a219c894d057f94dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><blockquote></blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b407508ae95e7b072fd09517db4e3931\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: VisualizedAnalytics.com<blockquote>资料来源：VisualizedAnalytics.com</blockquote> In both cases, comparing Microsoft to a broad sample of American technology companies, we get a result close to the company's current share price. Again, we draw a conclusion about the balanced state of the current price.<blockquote>在这两种情况下，将微软与美国科技公司的广泛样本进行比较，我们得到的结果接近该公司当前的股价。我们再次得出关于当前价格均衡状态的结论。</blockquote> #4 Discounted Cash Flow Model<blockquote>#4贴现现金流模型</blockquote> When predicting Microsoft's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts. But, even in the historical context, I consider it adequate to expect that the average annual growth rate of the company's revenue in the next 10 years will be about 12%.<blockquote>在预测微软未来十年的收入时，我从分析师的平均预期出发。但是，即使在历史背景下，我认为预计公司未来10年收入的年均增长率约为12%就足够了。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad53456538717d62c367fd15d74ffd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> The operating margin of MSFT is relatively very high now:<blockquote>MSFT现在的营业利润率相对非常高：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01c0a53deb1508eec2241f6d35ec762\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> But I find it wrong to assume that Microsoft's operating margins will continue to grow in the future. First, because the dynamics of this indicator is cyclical in nature. Secondly, where there is a high margin, competition inevitably grows. Therefore, the model includes a forecast of a gradual decrease in the operating margin to a more adequate 33%.<blockquote>但我发现，假设微软的营业利润率未来将继续增长是错误的。首先，因为该指标的动态本质上是周期性的。其次，利润率高的地方，竞争必然会加剧。因此，该模型包括营业利润率逐渐下降至更合适的33%的预测。</blockquote> Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:<blockquote>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e8d89ca266026af026dcf4cc69ae9bf\" tg-width=\"415\" tg-height=\"373\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> Some notes on the WACC calculation:<blockquote>关于WACC计算的一些注意事项：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equity&nbsp;risk</li> <li>I used the current&nbsp;value</li> <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 divided by the debt value for the same years.</li> </ul> Other important parameters of the model are as follows:<blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了股票风险值</li><li>我用了当前值</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用2020年和2021年的利息支出除以同年的债务价值。</li></ul>模型的其他重要参数如下：</blockquote> <ul> <li>The relative size of CAPEX is assumed to be 10.7%, which is close to the long-term average.</li> <li>The tax rate is assumed to be 26%, which is close to the world&nbsp;average.</li> </ul> Finally, here is the model itself:<blockquote><ul><li>资本支出的相对规模假设为10.7%，接近长期平均水平。</li><li>税率假设为26%，接近世界平均水平。</li></ul>最后，下面是模型本身：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/150b2e6192363e51dcf7b6db50a60d42\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> The model shows Microsoft is undervalued by 8%. In fact, we once again state the balanced level of the company's capitalization.<blockquote>该模型显示微软被低估了8%。事实上，我们再次陈述了公司资本化的平衡水平。</blockquote> #5 Dividend Discount Model<blockquote>#5股息贴现模型</blockquote> As a basis for Microsoft's Dividend Discount Model, I took the average expectations of&nbsp;analysts&nbsp;regarding the company's EPS in the next decade. But this is not enough to predict the net income, because it is still necessary to predict the number of shares.<blockquote>作为微软股息贴现模型的基础，我采用了分析师对公司未来十年每股收益的平均预期。但这不足以预测净收益，因为还需要预测股数。</blockquote> The number of Microsoft's diluted shares has been declining since 2012. Although the rate of decline has slowed down over the past two years:<blockquote>自2012年以来，微软稀释后的股份数量一直在下降。尽管过去两年下降速度有所放缓：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a94c5cbb5d3e066b4b6ae92a103c7f85\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.<blockquote>我假设过去两年的动态将持续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到72亿股。</blockquote> Among the other parameters, I want to highlight the following:<blockquote>在其他参数中，我想强调以下几点：</blockquote> <ul> <li>In the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last three years (35%).</li> <li>In the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).</li> </ul> Here is the model:<blockquote><ul><li>在模型中，我假设派息率将保持在过去三年的平均水平（35%）。</li><li>在最后一年，我假设股息增长3.5%（GDP增长2%，通货膨胀率1.5%）。</li></ul>以下是型号：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84bd13ccd121cc971801cc247b1e975e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: Author<blockquote>来源：作者</blockquote> The DDM-based target price is 23% less than current levels. But, as long as the company has the potential for free cash flow growth, I think dividends are not the key motivation for investors. Therefore, in this case, this is a very strong result. For example, in the&nbsp;case&nbsp;of Apple (AAPL), things are much worse.<blockquote>基于DDM的目标价比当前水平低23%。但是，只要公司有自由现金流增长的潜力，我认为股息就不是投资者的主要动机。因此，在这种情况下，这是一个非常强有力的结果。例如，在 箱子 苹果（AAPL）的情况要糟糕得多。</blockquote> #6 Technical picture<blockquote>#6技术图片</blockquote> Microsoft stock has been following an exponential trend over the past decade:<blockquote>微软股票在过去十年中一直遵循指数趋势：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0378e41b0b4020eb0425bb0470747f48\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> In this case, in order to highlight the usual linear channels, one should consider the graph with the logarithmic Y-axis:<blockquote>在这种情况下，为了突出显示通常的线性通道，应该考虑具有对数Y轴的图形：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019f435ae39ceee2cb122098609d9072\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> In this case, we are clearly fixing the movement in the ascending channel. Moreover, the price is now at the upper border of this channel. In fact, this means a strong zone of resistance.In such cases, it is appropriate to expect a sideways trend or even a correction:<blockquote>在这种情况下，我们显然是在修复上升通道中的运动。而且，价格现在处于这个通道的上边界。事实上，这意味着一个强大的阻力区。在这种情况下，预期横盘趋势甚至修正是合适的：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/369d216317a2215986670a5e6a16862b\" tg-width=\"941\" tg-height=\"597\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TradingView.com, Author<blockquote>资料来源：TradingView.com，作者</blockquote> Bottom line<blockquote>底线</blockquote> So, I tried to look as versatile as possible at Microsoft in the light of the latest quarterly report and summarize the following:<blockquote>因此，我试图根据最新的季度报告在微软看起来尽可能多才多艺，并总结如下：</blockquote> <ol> <li>The company continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. In my opinion, this is the main condition for expecting capitalization growth.</li> <li>Fundamentally, the company is not undervalued. This means that, by and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.</li> <li>Technically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that we need to calmly accept the fact that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results. At the same time, the long-term upward trend remains relevant.</li> <li>I would also like to note the fact that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Microsoft dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $220. And this is anexcellent result, considering that the company continues to grow in quantitative terms. This is a kind of bonus that a long-term investor will receive in addition to the likely increase in the share price.</li> </ol><blockquote><ol><li>公司持续发展。而且，它正在加速。在我看来，这是预期资本化增长的主要条件。</li><li>从根本上说，公司并没有被低估。这意味着，总的来说，公司最近的一季报提前反映在了公司的价格中。</li><li>从技术上看，公司股价目前已经触及天花板。这意味着我们需要冷静地接受这样一个事实，即尽管季度业绩非常出色，但在不久的将来，横盘走势是相当可能的。与此同时，长期上升趋势仍然具有相关性。</li><li>我还想指出的是，考虑到当前的资本成本，所有潜在微软股息的现值假设公司的公平价格为220美元。这是一个优异的成绩，考虑到公司在数量上持续增长。这是长期投资者除了股价可能上涨之外还会获得的一种奖金。</li></ol></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation\">seekingalpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4445689-calm-deep-and-versatile-look-at-microsoft-valuation","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172440547","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating.\nBy and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nIntro\nThis article provides a comprehensive look at Microsoft's (MSFT)\n#1 First impression of quarterly results\nMicrosoft's quarterly net income rose by 47% YoY and revenue by 21.35%, beating analysts' expectations for the tenth straight quarter. But the most surprising thing is that the company has grown in almost all directions.\nLinkedIn revenue grew 46% due to 97% growth in LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Revenue from server products and cloud services increased by 34% due to the growth of Azure by 51%. Revenue from sales of Dynamics products increased by 33%, Intelligent Cloud by 30% and by 25% Productivity and Business Processes. Revenue from commercial products Office and Windows increased by 20%:\nSource: Microsoft\nRevenue from devices of the Surface family fell by 20%. But this is probably due to a general deficiency of components.\nAll this led to the fact that the company's revenue turned out to be higher than its long-term trend, which is a sign ofaccelerating growth:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\n#2 Price vs. Growth\nConsidering Microsoft's capitalization as a function in which revenue is the independent variable, we get a model that indicates a slightly overvalued company present price:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nWe get the same result by considering EPS as the independent variable:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nHowever, the most qualitative model (R^2=0.98) in this case is built on the basis of Free Cash Flow. And this model indicates an almost perfect balanced state of the company's capitalization:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nInterestingly enough, the EV/FCF multiple has responded well to Microsoft's Free Cash Flow growth rate over the past six years. And, as the following graph shows, the current growth rate of this indicatorperfectly justifies Microsoft's capitalization:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nI understand that this is a very simplified view of the company's valuation, but in this context, Microsoft's capitalization is now balanced. In other words, the market has already reflected the company's quarterly results in price.Digging deeper...\n#3 Comparative Valuation\nIn the context of the comparative analysis, I only trust forward multiples and, ideally, adjusted for the expected growth rate. This is because the market is always focused on the future and companies are best compared at the same point in their life cycle. One of the solutions to this problem is the use of forward multiples, which are adjusted for the expected growth rate of the basic indicator.\nSo, this is what we get analyzing the forward P/S to growth (next FY) multiple:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nAnd this is what we get analyzing the forward P/E (next FY) multiple:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics.com\nIn both cases, comparing Microsoft to a broad sample of American technology companies, we get a result close to the company's current share price. Again, we draw a conclusion about the balanced state of the current price.\n#4 Discounted Cash Flow Model\nWhen predicting Microsoft's revenue for the next decade, I proceeded from the average expectations of analysts. But, even in the historical context, I consider it adequate to expect that the average annual growth rate of the company's revenue in the next 10 years will be about 12%.\nData by YCharts\nThe operating margin of MSFT is relatively very high now:\nData by YCharts\nBut I find it wrong to assume that Microsoft's operating margins will continue to grow in the future. First, because the dynamics of this indicator is cyclical in nature. Secondly, where there is a high margin, competition inevitably grows. Therefore, the model includes a forecast of a gradual decrease in the operating margin to a more adequate 33%.\nHere is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nSome notes on the WACC calculation:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equity risk\nI used the current value\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 and 2021 divided by the debt value for the same years.\n\nOther important parameters of the model are as follows:\n\nThe relative size of CAPEX is assumed to be 10.7%, which is close to the long-term average.\nThe tax rate is assumed to be 26%, which is close to the world average.\n\nFinally, here is the model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe model shows Microsoft is undervalued by 8%. In fact, we once again state the balanced level of the company's capitalization.\n#5 Dividend Discount Model\nAs a basis for Microsoft's Dividend Discount Model, I took the average expectations of analysts regarding the company's EPS in the next decade. But this is not enough to predict the net income, because it is still necessary to predict the number of shares.\nThe number of Microsoft's diluted shares has been declining since 2012. Although the rate of decline has slowed down over the past two years:\nData by YCharts\nI proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.\nAmong the other parameters, I want to highlight the following:\n\nIn the model, I assume that the payout ratio will remain at the average level of the last three years (35%).\nIn the terminal year, I assume an increase in dividends of 3.5% (GDP growth of 2% and inflation of 1.5%).\n\nHere is the model:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price is 23% less than current levels. But, as long as the company has the potential for free cash flow growth, I think dividends are not the key motivation for investors. Therefore, in this case, this is a very strong result. For example, in the case of Apple (AAPL), things are much worse.\n#6 Technical picture\nMicrosoft stock has been following an exponential trend over the past decade:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn this case, in order to highlight the usual linear channels, one should consider the graph with the logarithmic Y-axis:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nIn this case, we are clearly fixing the movement in the ascending channel. Moreover, the price is now at the upper border of this channel. In fact, this means a strong zone of resistance.In such cases, it is appropriate to expect a sideways trend or even a correction:\nSource: TradingView.com, Author\nBottom line\nSo, I tried to look as versatile as possible at Microsoft in the light of the latest quarterly report and summarize the following:\n\nThe company continues to grow. Moreover, it is accelerating. In my opinion, this is the main condition for expecting capitalization growth.\nFundamentally, the company is not undervalued. This means that, by and large, the company's most recent quarterly report was reflected in the company's price in advance.\nTechnically, the company's share price has hit the ceiling now. This means that we need to calmly accept the fact that a sideways trend is quite likely in the near future, despite the excellent quarterly results. At the same time, the long-term upward trend remains relevant.\nI would also like to note the fact that given the current cost of capital, the present value of all potential Microsoft dividends assumes a fair price of the company at $220. And this is anexcellent result, considering that the company continues to grow in quantitative terms. This is a kind of bonus that a long-term investor will receive in addition to the likely increase in the share price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5458477,"gmtCreate":1628381847712,"gmtModify":1635157444547,"authorId":3582948757581957,"author":{"id":3582948757581957,"idStr":"3582948757581957","authorId":3582948757581957,"name":"GrowGrowGrow","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":893391578,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"liked","text":"liked","html":"liked"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":35,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}