AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks

Seeking Alpha2021-09-28

Summary Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed. INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to ...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

Sphere
·2021-09-29
AMD is the way to go
回复
2
举报
收起
- Sphere:
  👍🏻
  2021-09-29
  回复
  举报
Best1
·2021-09-29
Thanks
回复
1
举报
EY12
·2021-09-29
Hi
回复
3
举报
收起
- EY12:
  like
  2021-09-29
  回复
  举报
loveena
·2021-09-29
Nice article
回复
3
举报
RobinChanKH
·2021-09-28
Up
回复
6
举报
收起
- TanHY:
  👍
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
- Stephanie712:
  Good
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
DZL
·2021-09-28
Intel bringing production onshore at US, edging against AMD, amidst global chip shortage
回复
9
举报
收起
- Anni001:
  [强]
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
- vic78:
  👍👍
  2021-09-29
  回复
  举报
- KLC:
  👍
  2021-09-29
  回复
  举报
Tchua
·2021-09-28
AMD is good, but Intel is a more suitable investment.
回复
10
举报
收起
- 60d48e1:
  very well said
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
- Tchua:
  Thanks
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
- 李欧8886:
  认同
  2021-09-30
  回复
  举报
查看更多 2 条评论
Mystery746
·2021-09-28
[微笑]
回复
8
举报
收起
- SimonChan:
  👍🏻
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
CharlesKing
·2021-09-28
Like and comment plz👇👇👇
回复
6
举报
收起
- Torres87:
  ik
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
Segaboy
·2021-09-28
Like lls
回复
9
举报
收起
- CharlesKing:
  yes
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
- Mystery746:
  [微笑]
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
Olympous
·2021-09-28
Like please
回复
11
举报
收起
- CHUMOI:
  Ok
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
- Minhoshuting:
  ok
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报
38341f8e
·2021-09-28
Ok
回复
4
举报
11da77b5
·2021-09-28
Like pls
回复
5
举报
收起
- Olympous:
  ok
  2021-09-28
  回复
  举报

热议股票

7x24

全部

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"data":{"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1171210263","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks","media":"Seeking Alpha","content":"<div>\nSummary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-28 23:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks>Seeking Alpha</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nSummary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to ...\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AMD","symbol_name":"美国超微公司","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","article_id":"1171210263","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"translate_title":"AMD和英特尔提供相似的回报--关注风险","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":862844989,"gmtCreate":1632872421157,"gmtModify":1632872421252,"author":{"id":"3573432013960035","authorId":"3573432013960035","name":"Sphere","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3573432013960035","idStr":"3573432013960035"},"htmlText":"AMD is the way to go","listText":"AMD is the way to go","text":"AMD is the way to go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862844989","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6030546,"gmtCreate":1632872429950,"gmtModify":1634783062125,"authorId":3573432013960035,"author":{"id":3573432013960035,"idStr":"3573432013960035","authorId":3573432013960035,"name":"Sphere","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862844989,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","html":"👍🏻"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862860511,"gmtCreate":1632869876883,"gmtModify":1632869876934,"author":{"id":"4091528538290110","authorId":"4091528538290110","name":"Best1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"4091528538290110","idStr":"4091528538290110"},"htmlText":"Thanks","listText":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862860511","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862128475,"gmtCreate":1632845339105,"gmtModify":1632845339173,"author":{"id":"3569935580474431","authorId":"3569935580474431","name":"EY12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103e86782b34598ff73873d5f9259adb","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3569935580474431","idStr":"3569935580474431"},"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862128475","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6028628,"gmtCreate":1632845346562,"gmtModify":1634783225108,"authorId":3569935580474431,"author":{"id":3569935580474431,"idStr":"3569935580474431","authorId":3569935580474431,"name":"EY12","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103e86782b34598ff73873d5f9259adb","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862128475,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like","text":"like","html":"like"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862129281,"gmtCreate":1632844946371,"gmtModify":1632844946443,"author":{"id":"3561892756320244","authorId":"3561892756320244","name":"loveena","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d991c10b28d0043e55514f93132845bc","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3561892756320244","idStr":"3561892756320244"},"htmlText":"Nice article&nbsp;","listText":"Nice article&nbsp;","text":"Nice article","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862129281","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862117969,"gmtCreate":1632842932975,"gmtModify":1632842933130,"author":{"id":"3585125163446793","authorId":"3585125163446793","name":"RobinChanKH","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf0ba843eca17a8812677bc4f2a46162","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3585125163446793","idStr":"3585125163446793"},"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862117969","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6028385,"gmtCreate":1632843612086,"gmtModify":1634783240299,"authorId":3578351992666848,"author":{"id":3578351992666848,"idStr":"3578351992666848","authorId":3578351992666848,"name":"TanHY","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862117969,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"},{"id":6028447,"gmtCreate":1632844141146,"gmtModify":1634783236377,"authorId":3582030171524236,"author":{"id":3582030171524236,"idStr":"3582030171524236","authorId":3582030171524236,"name":"Stephanie712","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862117969,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862115714,"gmtCreate":1632842874383,"gmtModify":1632842874493,"author":{"id":"3582006183410147","authorId":"3582006183410147","name":"DZL","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640ac3ae648fded99146300a53c24a5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3582006183410147","idStr":"3582006183410147"},"htmlText":"Intel bringing production onshore at US, edging against AMD, amidst global chip shortage&nbsp;","listText":"Intel bringing production onshore at US, edging against AMD, amidst global chip shortage&nbsp;","text":"Intel bringing production onshore at US, edging against AMD, amidst global chip shortage","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862115714","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6028448,"gmtCreate":1632844143332,"gmtModify":1634783236266,"authorId":3581489684162254,"author":{"id":3581489684162254,"idStr":"3581489684162254","authorId":3581489684162254,"name":"Anni001","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862115714,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[强]","text":"[强]","html":"[强]"},{"id":6029766,"gmtCreate":1632869244467,"gmtModify":1634783134441,"authorId":3584874174562489,"author":{"id":3584874174562489,"idStr":"3584874174562489","authorId":3584874174562489,"name":"vic78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4dc3bd30cec435b0345175f72eeb4dc","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862115714,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍👍","text":"👍👍","html":"👍👍"},{"id":6030635,"gmtCreate":1632872697634,"gmtModify":1634783053859,"authorId":3567916089112278,"author":{"id":3567916089112278,"idStr":"3567916089112278","authorId":3567916089112278,"name":"KLC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5f29591734279d9235e132e16aa719","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862115714,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍","text":"👍","html":"👍"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862119825,"gmtCreate":1632842528912,"gmtModify":1632842529080,"author":{"id":"3561859229387101","authorId":"3561859229387101","name":"Tchua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245ba7d1360ad877e076f09e9d78c378","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3561859229387101","idStr":"3561859229387101"},"htmlText":"AMD is good, but Intel is a more suitable investment.","listText":"AMD is good, but Intel is a more suitable investment.","text":"AMD is good, but Intel is a more suitable investment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862119825","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6028186,"gmtCreate":1632842548749,"gmtModify":1634783253307,"authorId":3577963183517164,"author":{"id":3577963183517164,"idStr":"3577963183517164","authorId":3577963183517164,"name":"60d48e1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862119825,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"very well said","text":"very well said","html":"very well said"},{"id":6028358,"gmtCreate":1632843425920,"gmtModify":1634783241507,"authorId":3561859229387101,"author":{"id":3561859229387101,"idStr":"3561859229387101","authorId":3561859229387101,"name":"Tchua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245ba7d1360ad877e076f09e9d78c378","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862119825,"type":1,"supId":6028186,"prevId":0,"content":"Thanks","text":"Thanks","html":"Thanks"},{"id":6043709,"gmtCreate":1632962518175,"gmtModify":1634726134571,"authorId":4091536494292900,"author":{"id":4091536494292900,"idStr":"4091536494292900","authorId":4091536494292900,"name":"李欧8886","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9a7ca0f1e442bd3dc4abce395877cd3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862119825,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"认同","text":"认同","html":"认同"},{"id":6080422,"gmtCreate":1633276026020,"gmtModify":1634723004581,"authorId":3577963183517164,"author":{"id":3577963183517164,"idStr":"3577963183517164","authorId":3577963183517164,"name":"60d48e1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862119825,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Intel has done well in this volatile period","text":"Intel has done well in this volatile period","html":"Intel has done well in this volatile period"},{"id":6164827,"gmtCreate":1633967590801,"gmtModify":1634715976119,"authorId":3561859229387101,"author":{"id":3561859229387101,"idStr":"3561859229387101","authorId":3561859229387101,"name":"Tchua","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245ba7d1360ad877e076f09e9d78c378","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862119825,"type":1,"supId":6080422,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes it has","text":"Yes it has","html":"Yes it has"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862136087,"gmtCreate":1632842194703,"gmtModify":1632842197687,"author":{"id":"3578426177245991","authorId":"3578426177245991","name":"Mystery746","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61c18bcc189aa2aabbaee265d94ce48b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3578426177245991","idStr":"3578426177245991"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862136087","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6028099,"gmtCreate":1632842279241,"gmtModify":1634783260952,"authorId":3572212448091017,"author":{"id":3572212448091017,"idStr":"3572212448091017","authorId":3572212448091017,"name":"SimonChan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9becd538a97d2ba19c33053c87e741cf","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862136087,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"👍🏻","text":"👍🏻","html":"👍🏻"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862139046,"gmtCreate":1632841965094,"gmtModify":1632841965327,"author":{"id":"3579391265651951","authorId":"3579391265651951","name":"CharlesKing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8fbdcf3295ba7f84c1f2205610ea968","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3579391265651951","idStr":"3579391265651951"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;Like and comment plz👇👇👇","listText":"&nbsp;Like and comment plz👇👇👇","text":"Like and comment plz👇👇👇","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862139046","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6028011,"gmtCreate":1632842092532,"gmtModify":1634783268693,"authorId":4087343690210600,"author":{"id":4087343690210600,"idStr":"4087343690210600","authorId":4087343690210600,"name":"Torres87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d156a82c34541c0ce64bf92741403fa5","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862139046,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ik","text":"ik","html":"ik"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862198505,"gmtCreate":1632841669793,"gmtModify":1632841669958,"author":{"id":"3568632737165629","authorId":"3568632737165629","name":"Segaboy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baa95c52f5fcc2fbd515d8dc2c3346b2","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3568632737165629","idStr":"3568632737165629"},"htmlText":"Like lls","listText":"Like lls","text":"Like lls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862198505","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6027973,"gmtCreate":1632841980197,"gmtModify":1634783271418,"authorId":3579391265651951,"author":{"id":3579391265651951,"idStr":"3579391265651951","authorId":3579391265651951,"name":"CharlesKing","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8fbdcf3295ba7f84c1f2205610ea968","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862198505,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"},{"id":6028069,"gmtCreate":1632842208730,"gmtModify":1634783263565,"authorId":3578426177245991,"author":{"id":3578426177245991,"idStr":"3578426177245991","authorId":3578426177245991,"name":"Mystery746","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61c18bcc189aa2aabbaee265d94ce48b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862198505,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862191837,"gmtCreate":1632841633948,"gmtModify":1632841634034,"author":{"id":"3580732020483404","authorId":"3580732020483404","name":"Olympous","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8af001d967b1e9c67ad207e8390558","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3580732020483404","idStr":"3580732020483404"},"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862191837","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6027923,"gmtCreate":1632841722113,"gmtModify":1634783275125,"authorId":3585564713983052,"author":{"id":3585564713983052,"idStr":"3585564713983052","authorId":3585564713983052,"name":"CHUMOI","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862191837,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":6028225,"gmtCreate":1632842711975,"gmtModify":1634783250478,"authorId":3577450970953718,"author":{"id":3577450970953718,"idStr":"3577450970953718","authorId":3577450970953718,"name":"Minhoshuting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16ab92b2914bd064ccd8620ef1d430ff","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862191837,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862193726,"gmtCreate":1632841612579,"gmtModify":1632841612801,"author":{"id":"3581588474178431","authorId":"3581588474178431","name":"38341f8e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3581588474178431","idStr":"3581588474178431"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862193726","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":862193434,"gmtCreate":1632841608163,"gmtModify":1632841608255,"author":{"id":"3583811997319940","authorId":"3583811997319940","name":"11da77b5","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"authorIdStr":"3583811997319940","idStr":"3583811997319940"},"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862193434","repostId":1171210263,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171210263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632841539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1171210263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 23:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171210263","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed","content":"Summary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD And Intel Offer Similar Returns - Focus On The Risks<blockquote>AMD 和英特尔提供类似的回报 - 关注风险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nSeeking Alpha2021-09-28 23:05\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nSummary<blockquote>总结</blockquote> <ul> <li>Semiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.</li> <li>INTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.</li> <li>The two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef88f36e97fe83170b1cf0f19a56398f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">HQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images<blockquote><ul><li>半导体股受益于长期顺风，但并不能保证高额回报。</li><li>我相信，INTC 和 AMD 将在未来几年提供高个位数的回报，但原因不同。</li><li>这两家公司面临不同的风险，投资者可能需要决定他们愿意承担什么类型的风险。</li></ul>HQuality 视频/iStock 来自 Getty Images</blockquote> Article Thesis<blockquote>文章论文</blockquote> Despite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.<blockquote>尽管存在很大差异，但根据我的模型，Advanced Micro Devices（纳斯达克股票代码：AMD）和英特尔（纳斯达克股票代码：INTC）在未来几年确实提供了相对相似的高个位数回报前景。</blockquote> I do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.<blockquote>因此，我确实相信，在这两只股票之间做出决定时，关注两家公司独特的风险可能更有意义。投资者必须考虑，暴露在英特尔的执行风险下，他们是否确实感觉更好，或者他们是否想选择 AMD，其中估值低迷及其对代工厂的依赖是关键风险因素。</blockquote> Total Return Forecast<blockquote>总回报预测</blockquote> Investors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of&nbsp;$5.65.<blockquote>投资者自然对从投资中获得回报感兴趣，因此让我们尝试预测到2025年的回报。AMD 预计今年的每股收益将达到 2.50 美元，分析师预计这一数字将以有吸引力的两位数速度攀升，从而使我们对 2025 年每股收益的预期达到 5.65 美元。</blockquote> Right now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.<blockquote>目前，AMD 的交易价格是其净利润的 40 倍以上，但由于两个原因，这种情况可能会在未来几年内发生变化。首先，AMD 过去的交易估值较低，其次，规模不断增长的公司通常会看到增长率放缓，这证明了多年来的多次压缩是合理的。正如我们在下图中看到的，去年股票的平均市盈率高达 30 倍，而今天的预期市盈率为 41 倍。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c478c5ffedc2fb5ca10ec75ae643ef\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> Considering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.<blockquote>考虑到 AMD 成熟后的上述倍数压缩，我认为可以将 2025 年的公允价值倍数定为 25——这仍然比英特尔等增长较低的同行有巨大溢价，但同时，对于更成熟的 AMD 来说似乎更合理。在这种情况下，2025 年的目标价为 141 美元，代表着接近 40% 的上涨潜力，这使得我们的年回报率约为 8%——有吸引力，但并不出色。</blockquote> Intel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.<blockquote>与此同时，英特尔预计今年每股收益为 4.80 美元。分析师预测未来几年每股收益表现相对不均衡，这很可能会成为现实。如果英特尔的每股收益每年仅增长 2%，由于通货膨胀、全球芯片需求增长以及英特尔的代工业务应该在 2025 年开始产生影响，这似乎是一个非常可以实现的目标，那么我们的每股收益目标约为 5.20 美元。如今，INTC 的远期市盈率仅为 11 倍，但无论是从绝对值还是相对于过去的股票估值而言，这都是一个相当低的估值。过去五年的市盈率中位数为 13.3，这似乎是一个合适的目标估值，反过来，我们的目标价为 69 美元。相对于英特尔目前的股价，这将使年度股价上涨 6.5%。加上 2.5% 收益率的股息，即使盈利增长率相当低，英特尔也可以产生 9% 的年回报率。在这种情景分析中，英特尔看起来是稍微好一点的选择，但当然，人们可以说输入应该有所不同。</blockquote> Balance Sheet And Shareholder Returns<blockquote>资产负债表及股东回报</blockquote> Intel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:<blockquote>英特尔提供的股息收益率按当前价格计算为 2.5%，大约是大盘收益率的两倍。另一方面，AMD 目前不提供任何股息支付。然而，这并不奇怪，因为 AMD 在最近的过去没有产生有意义的自由现金流，因此实际上无法提供任何慷慨的付款。与此同时，英特尔由于其更强的自由现金生成能力，不仅能够定期提高股息，而且最重要的是，英特尔一直通过股票回购支付数十亿美元的现金。仅在过去三年中，英特尔的股价就下降了 11%，而同期 AMD 的股价却上涨了 20% 以上：</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f767d35c5cbdd7105dae1ecc4d14c539\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Data by YCharts<blockquote>数据由YCharts提供</blockquote> This is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.<blockquote>这是 AMD 发行股票的结果，例如为了留住人才和支付高管薪酬，而英特尔的股票数量下降可以用其有利于股东的回购计划来解释。AMD 的股票稀释在过去并不是一个主要问题，因为股东仍然受益于非常可观的回报，但如果 AMD 未来继续快速稀释股东，回报可能会受到影响。</blockquote> AMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with&nbsp;$3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its&nbsp;10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.<blockquote>AMD 的资产负债表相当干净，37 亿美元的现金超过了其长期债务。然而，相对于其远超 1000 亿美元的市值，其净现金头寸并不特别有意义。与此同时，根据其 10-Q 报告，英特尔拥有 80 亿美元的现金头寸，但也持有 360 亿美元的债务头寸（短期和长期债务合计）。因此，AMD 如今拥有更好的资产负债表，但这是以反复发行股票和避免股东回报计划为代价的。</blockquote> What Risks Do You Want To Take On?<blockquote>你想冒什么风险？</blockquote> Intel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.<blockquote>在我的模型中，英特尔的回报率略高于AMD，但由于预测的总回报率没有重大差异，投资者可能希望将投资决策建立在其他因素的基础上，例如投资这些股票的风险。</blockquote> Intel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration&nbsp;in favor of&nbsp;onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does&nbsp;have a very solid outlook&nbsp;and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.<blockquote>英特尔的战略包括扩大其在美国的足迹，这将有助于保护该公司免受未来贸易战中的麻烦。随着政府支持本土芯片生产，英特尔可能会从这些努力中受益于有利的政治和补贴。英特尔寻求通过 IFS 成为代工厂的主要参与者——当我们观察 TSM 时，我们会发现，如果做得好，这可以是一种高利润的商业模式。如今从零开始增长的 IFS 确实拥有非常稳健的前景，并可能在未来几年显着加速英特尔的整体增长。如果台湾和美国之间的紧张局势加剧，其在美国的业务可能会派上用场，因为这可能会导致客户比同行更青睐英特尔的生产，而与此同时，英特尔可能会被投资者视为避风港，这可能会导致多重扩张顺风在这种情况下。</blockquote> Geopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip&nbsp;delay&nbsp;but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.<blockquote>因此，投资英特尔时，地缘政治并不是一个关键问题。相反，我认为执行是主要的风险。该公司拥有巨大的市场份额、强劲的现金流，而且交易非常便宜，但其主要问题是在引入新工艺类型时无法很好地执行，这使得 AMD 或 NVIDIA 等同行能够获得市场份额。这不仅适用于其7纳米芯片延迟，而且该公司还不得不在今年夏天推迟其最新版本的至强服务器芯片。由于今年早些时候将首席执行官更换为更注重技术/工程的首席执行官帕特·基辛格，英特尔似乎很可能会更好地及时将新产品推向市场。尽管如此，这是英特尔的核心问题，并且可能仍然是未来的核心风险。</blockquote> AMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.<blockquote>另一方面，AMD 在执行方面表现出色，这对该公司来说似乎不是一个重大风险。然而，投资者不应忽视另外两个风险因素。第一个是估值风险——AMD 的估值相当高，超过净利润的 40 倍，这可能会因一系列因素而发生变化。例如，如果利率攀升，AMD 等高估值成长型公司将比英特尔等价值股更容易受到多重压缩。如果全球芯片需求增长放缓，AMD每股收益增长低于预期，其市盈率也可能大幅下降。英特尔对此更加孤立，因为无论如何，没有太多的增长是定价的。如果在其他条件相同的情况下，AMD 的股价跌至净利润的 30 倍，其股价将下跌超过 25%，而且由于几个月前股价还在 70 美元左右，这似乎并非极不可能。</blockquote> Another important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.<blockquote>另一个重要风险是AMD对TSM等代工厂的依赖。这意味着，如果TSM决定要求更大的份额，它将处于弱势的谈判地位。在这种情况下，AMD 的利润率可能会被压缩，进而可能会给每股收益增长和估值带来压力。</blockquote> In some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.<blockquote>从某种意义上说，投资者必须决定是否要选择执行风险较低但估值下行幅度较大且更容易受到地缘政治风险影响的公司，或者是否要选择相当便宜且估值下行幅度较低的股票，但执行可能会成为未来回报的障碍。</blockquote> I do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish&nbsp;article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.<blockquote>在这两家公司中，我确实稍微偏爱英特尔，它是我买入并持有投资组合的一部分，但我根本不想暗示 AMD 是一家糟糕的公司。相反，我们在 6 月份发布了一篇关于 AMD 的 abullish 文章，此后股价上涨了 30%。然而，由于此后估值的扩张，现在买入似乎不是一个好主意。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks\">Seeking Alpha</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457363-amd-intel-offer-similar-returns-focus-on-risks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171210263","content_text":"Summary\n\nSemiconductor stocks benefit from long-term tailwinds, but steep returns are not guaranteed.\nINTC and AMD will deliver high-single-digits returns in the coming years, I believe, but due to different reasons.\nThe two companies come with different risks, and investors may want to decide what type of risk they are willing to take on.\n\nHQuality Video/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nDespite big differences, Advanced Micro Devices(NASDAQ:AMD)and Intel(NASDAQ:INTC)do, according to my models, surprisingly offer a relatively similar return outlook, in the high-single-digits, over the coming years.\nI do hence believe that it may make more sense to focus on the two companies' unique sets of risks when deciding between these stocks. Investors have to consider whether they do feel better being exposed to Intel's execution risk, or whether they want to go with AMD, where valuation depression and its reliance on foundries are the key risks factors.\nTotal Return Forecast\nInvestors naturally are interested in generating returns from their investments, thus let's try to forecast what returns could look like through 2025. AMD is forecasted to generate EPS of $2.50 this year, and analysts expect that this amount will climb at an attractive double-digit rate, which gets us to a 2025 EPS estimate of $5.65.\nRight now, AMD trades for more than 40x its net profit, but this will likely change over the years, due to two reasons. First, AMD has traded at lower valuations in the past, and second, companies that grow in size do usually see their growth rate slowdown, which justifies multiple compression over the years. As we can see in the following chart, shares averaged a P/E multiple in the high 30s over the last year, versus a 41x forward earnings multiple today.\nData by YCharts\nConsidering the aforementioned multiple compression as AMD matures, I believe that one could assign a fair value multiple of 25 for 2025 -- this would still represent a huge premium over lower-growth peers such as Intel but would, at the same time, seem more reasonable for a more mature AMD. The target price for 2025, in this scenario, is $141, representing an upside potential of close to 40%, which gets us to an annual return of roughly 8% -- attractive, but not outstanding.\nIntel, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate EPS of $4.80 this year. Analysts are predicting relatively uneven EPS performance over the coming years, which may very well come true. If Intel grows its EPS by just 2% a year, which seems like a very much achievable goal thanks to inflation, growing global chip demand, and due to the fact that Intel's foundry business should start to have an impact by 2025, then we get to an EPS target of around $5.20. Today, INTC trades at just 11x forward earnings, but that is a rather low valuation both in absolute terms and relative to how shares were valued in the past. The median earnings multiple over the last five years is 13.3, which seems like an appropriate target valuation, which, in turn, gets us to a price target of $69. Relative to Intel's current share price, this would allow for annual share price gains of 6.5%. Add in a 2.5%-yielding dividend, and Intel could generate 9% annual returns, even with a pretty slim earnings growth rate. In this scenario analysis, Intel thus looks like the slightly better pick, but one can, of course, argue that inputs should be different.\nBalance Sheet And Shareholder Returns\nIntel offers a dividend yielding 2.5% at current prices, which is roughly twice the yield of the broad market. AMD, on the other hand, does not offer any dividend payments for now. This isn't a large surprise, however, as AMD has not been generating meaningful free cash flows over the more recent past, and was thus not really in a position to offer any generous payments. Intel, meanwhile, due to its way stronger free cash generation, was not only able to raise its dividend regularly, but on top of that, Intel has been paying out billions in cash via share repurchases. Over the last three years alone, Intel's share count dropped by 11%, while AMD's share count has risen by more than 20% in the same time frame:\nData by YCharts\nThis is the result of share issuance in AMD's case, e.g. to retain talent and pay executives, while Intel's declining share count can be explained by its buyback programs working in favor of shareholders. Share count dilution at AMD has not been a major issue in the past, as shareholders still benefited from very sizeable returns, but in case AMD continues to dilute shareholders rapidly in the future, returns may take a hit from that.\nAMD has a pretty clean balance sheet, with $3.7 billionin cash outstripping its long-term debt. Relative to its market cap of well above $100 billion, its net cash position isn't especially meaningful, however. Intel, meanwhile, has an $8 billion cash position, but also holds a $36 billion debt position (short- and long-term debt combined), according to its 10-Q. AMD thus has the better balance sheet today, but this came at the cost of issuing shares repeatedly and avoiding shareholder return programs.\nWhat Risks Do You Want To Take On?\nIntel slightly beats AMD's returns in my model, but since there are no major differences in forecasted total returns, investors may want to base their investment decisions on other things, such as the risks of investing in these stocks.\nIntel's strategy involves expanding its footprint in the US, which would help in shielding the company from trouble in future trade wars. With the administration in favor of onshoring chip production, Intel may benefit from favorable politics and subsidies with these endeavors. Intel seeks to become a major player in foundries through IFS -- when we look at TSM we see that this can be a highly profitable business model when done right. IFS, which is growing from zero today, does have a very solid outlook and could accelerate Intel's overall growth meaningfully in the coming years. Its US footprint could come in handy if tensions between Taiwan and the US rise, as this may lead to customers favoring Intel's production over peers, while at the same time, Intel could be seen as a safe haven by investors, which may lead to multiple expansion tailwinds in such a situation.\nGeopolitics is thus not a key issue when investing in Intel. Instead, I believe that execution is the main risk. The company has a huge market share, strong cash flows, and trades very inexpensively, but its main problem is its inability to execute well when it comes to the introduction of new process types, which allows peers such as AMD or NVIDIA to gain market share. This does not only hold true for its 7nm chip delay but the company also had to delay the newest version of its Xeon server chips this summer. Thanks to swapping its CEO to a more tech-focused/engineering-focused CEO, Pat Gelsinger, earlier this year, it seems likely that Intel will get better at bringing new products to the market in a timely manner. Still, this is Intel's core problem and will likely remain the core risk going forward.\nAMD, on the other hand, has been great at execution, and this doesn't seem to be a major risk for the company. There are, however, two other risk factors investors should not ignore. The first one is valuation risk -- AMD trades at a quite elevated valuation of more than 40x net profits, and this could change due to a range of factors. If, for example, interest rates climb, highly-valued growth companies such as AMD would be more exposed to multiple compression than value stocks such as Intel. If global chip demand growth slows down and AMD grows its EPS less than expected, its multiples could also decline considerably. Intel is more insulated from that, as not a lot of growth is priced in anyways. If AMD's shares were to trade down to 30x net profits, all else equal, its shares would drop by more than 25%, and since shares traded in the $70s just a couple of months ago, this does not seem extremely unlikely.\nAnother important risk is AMD's reliance on foundries such as TSM. It means that it is in a weak negotiating position should TSM ever decide to demand a bigger portion of the overall pie. In that case, AMD's margins could compress, which, in turn, could pressure EPS growth and its valuation.\nIn some sense, investors have to decide whether they want to go with a company that has low execution risk but significant valuation downside and that is more exposed to geopolitical risks, or whether they want to go with a stock that is pretty inexpensive and has low valuation downside, but where execution may turn out to be a hindrance for future returns.\nI do favor Intel slightly among these two, and it is part of my buy-and-hold portfolio, but I do not at all want to imply that AMD is a bad company. Quite the contrary, we released abullish article on AMD in June, with shares delivering 30% since then. Due to the valuation expansion since then, buying now seems like a less favorable idea, however.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":0.9,"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":6027902,"gmtCreate":1632841626318,"gmtModify":1634783275995,"authorId":3580732020483404,"author":{"id":3580732020483404,"idStr":"3580732020483404","authorId":3580732020483404,"name":"Olympous","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a8af001d967b1e9c67ad207e8390558","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":862193434,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"ok","text":"ok","html":"ok"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":82,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}