As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market

MarketWatch2021-06-18

The stock market’s key level is 4190 Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the ...

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139

Britmand
·2021-06-20
Nice
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298f8339
·2021-06-19
Nice
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Pixieponies
·2021-06-18
Wowwww
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Jason7890
·2021-06-18
Hmm
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huathuatkiak
·2021-06-18
Ok
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FoxHong
·2021-06-18
😀
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OO_898
·2021-06-18
Great to know it
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phtan68
·2021-06-18
More Bull to come牛气冲天
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3
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- Ckee:
  Lol
  2021-06-18
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- 6413eadb:
  lol
  2021-06-18
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56219dde
·2021-06-18
Cmon
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1
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- Asd123:
  Good
  2021-06-18
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spenceryeoo
·2021-06-18
bulll
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- 3a659396:
  It will rose agAin in No time!
  2021-06-18
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asdine
·2021-06-18
No fear, time in the market beats timing the market. Like and comment if you agree!
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1
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- ZEROHERO:
  DCA along the way
  2021-06-18
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edgetrader
·2021-06-18
Bull is running out of steam.
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- ZEROHERO:
  Will climb with trillions in printing over next few years. Just stay invested
  2021-06-18
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- edgetrader:
  Still printing? Fed saId they slowing down soon
  2021-06-18
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Racheltestin
·2021-06-18
Like and comment pls thank you :)
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2
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- MamaLee:
  Ok
  2021-06-18
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- osp95:
  okay
  2021-06-18
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Darylzhuo
·2021-06-18
Please like and comment
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1
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- ZEROHERO:
  Done
  2021-06-18
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Eded
·2021-06-18
It’s always the middle of the price movement between Dow Jones and nasdaq. If both index are rising , s&p should rise . Please like and comment
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Glenna
·2021-06-18
wow good
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- Sgalex85:
  Nice
  2021-06-18
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Cindy8989
·2021-06-18
Ok
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1
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JonathanT
·2021-06-18
Ok
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3
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dent
·2021-06-18
The market will recover it’s just a matter of when.These dips in the market are all buying opportunities. Look at the crash in 2006 and 2008, if you bought then you would be sitting pretty right now.Of course the dip isn’t as bad as those crashes but if you’re buying now and once the market recovers you’ll still be having a tidy profit.So keep holding and if you can buy more.
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Nigel2112
·2021-06-18
bibi i
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2
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- JonathanT:
  Ok
  2021-06-18
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- Lifestyle:
  👍
  2021-06-18
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AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1603348471595","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 08:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page>MarketWatch</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the ...\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".IXIC","symbol_name":"NASDAQ Composite","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","article_id":"1169452580","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"在标普500步履蹒跚之际，这是重振牛市的必由之路","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":165210069,"gmtCreate":1624145934151,"gmtModify":1634010395483,"author":{"id":"3559613619677698","authorId":"3559613619677698","name":"Britmand","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3559613619677698","authorIdStr":"3559613619677698"},"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165210069","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":162155554,"gmtCreate":1624048926678,"gmtModify":1634023613267,"author":{"id":"3561078354105669","authorId":"3561078354105669","name":"298f8339","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3561078354105669","authorIdStr":"3561078354105669"},"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162155554","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":168776217,"gmtCreate":1623984827239,"gmtModify":1634024672992,"author":{"id":"3583036752853589","authorId":"3583036752853589","name":"Pixieponies","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b41d4c73bb602c4f7e17b0108275e8a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3583036752853589","authorIdStr":"3583036752853589"},"htmlText":"Wowwww&nbsp;","listText":"Wowwww&nbsp;","text":"Wowwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168776217","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168724822,"gmtCreate":1623984495466,"gmtModify":1634024697849,"author":{"id":"3559732583760300","authorId":"3559732583760300","name":"Jason7890","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f2abf8ef7cf6c1e2a2371d9882f2b91","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3559732583760300","authorIdStr":"3559732583760300"},"htmlText":"Hmm","listText":"Hmm","text":"Hmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168724822","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168473258,"gmtCreate":1623982243374,"gmtModify":1634024758257,"author":{"id":"3583895494481567","authorId":"3583895494481567","name":"huathuatkiak","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3583895494481567","authorIdStr":"3583895494481567"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168473258","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168424106,"gmtCreate":1623981532705,"gmtModify":1631892600696,"author":{"id":"3582460640048049","authorId":"3582460640048049","name":"FoxHong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be335aa4249630c1bf5d1dd511494765","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3582460640048049","authorIdStr":"3582460640048049"},"htmlText":"😀","listText":"😀","text":"😀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168424106","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168490732,"gmtCreate":1623980104426,"gmtModify":1634024829916,"author":{"id":"3582969710070724","authorId":"3582969710070724","name":"OO_898","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb3c360d5d7711641a868a144192fc7","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3582969710070724","authorIdStr":"3582969710070724"},"htmlText":"Great to know it","listText":"Great to know it","text":"Great to know it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168490732","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168401714,"gmtCreate":1623979956638,"gmtModify":1634024836357,"author":{"id":"3574739732742262","authorId":"3574739732742262","name":"phtan68","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e3f25ca6f0628d3425ae8bb0e944aab","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574739732742262","authorIdStr":"3574739732742262"},"htmlText":"More Bull to come牛气冲天","listText":"More Bull to come牛气冲天","text":"More Bull to come牛气冲天","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168401714","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4854825,"gmtCreate":1623980001726,"gmtModify":1635312268653,"authorId":3579468869888881,"author":{"id":3579468869888881,"idStr":"3579468869888881","authorId":3579468869888881,"name":"Ckee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c83eb3fca0be8276df2d1f268e7e7e","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168401714,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Lol","text":"Lol","html":"Lol"},{"id":4854998,"gmtCreate":1623980344018,"gmtModify":1635312250132,"authorId":3574574846123045,"author":{"id":3574574846123045,"idStr":"3574574846123045","authorId":3574574846123045,"name":"6413eadb","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168401714,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"lol","text":"lol","html":"lol"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":168532979,"gmtCreate":1623978337191,"gmtModify":1631888350691,"author":{"id":"3581634665667334","authorId":"3581634665667334","name":"56219dde","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3581634665667334","authorIdStr":"3581634665667334"},"htmlText":"Cmon","listText":"Cmon","text":"Cmon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168532979","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4854782,"gmtCreate":1623979940575,"gmtModify":1635312272646,"authorId":3577435279042129,"author":{"id":3577435279042129,"idStr":"3577435279042129","authorId":3577435279042129,"name":"Asd123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7606b161fd90f319a4d0198cddfcc0e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168532979,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168594909,"gmtCreate":1623978152901,"gmtModify":1634024909598,"author":{"id":"3578303559329520","authorId":"3578303559329520","name":"spenceryeoo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b1f3dac72381594419f01e965623f61","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3578303559329520","authorIdStr":"3578303559329520"},"htmlText":"bulll","listText":"bulll","text":"bulll","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168594909","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4853788,"gmtCreate":1623978350752,"gmtModify":1635312374908,"authorId":3576822898262586,"author":{"id":3576822898262586,"idStr":"3576822898262586","authorId":3576822898262586,"name":"3a659396","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168594909,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"It will rose agAin in No time!","text":"It will rose agAin in No time!","html":"It will rose agAin in No time!"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168507400,"gmtCreate":1623977965700,"gmtModify":1634024917749,"author":{"id":"3582074828081294","authorId":"3582074828081294","name":"asdine","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1de6a3b69cd62b99233606d7c5500508","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3582074828081294","authorIdStr":"3582074828081294"},"htmlText":"No fear, time in the market beats timing the market. Like and comment if you agree!","listText":"No fear, time in the market beats timing the market. Like and comment if you agree!","text":"No fear, time in the market beats timing the market. Like and comment if you agree!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168507400","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4855772,"gmtCreate":1623982025629,"gmtModify":1635312170323,"authorId":3566532164444643,"author":{"id":3566532164444643,"idStr":"3566532164444643","authorId":3566532164444643,"name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","vip":2,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168507400,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"DCA along the way","text":"DCA along the way","html":"DCA along the way"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168507396,"gmtCreate":1623977955915,"gmtModify":1634024918338,"author":{"id":"3570751249933438","authorId":"3570751249933438","name":"edgetrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0e920d94a7891f4c6393f3e5510ccc","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3570751249933438","authorIdStr":"3570751249933438"},"htmlText":"Bull is running out of steam.&nbsp;","listText":"Bull is running out of steam.&nbsp;","text":"Bull is running out of steam.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168507396","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4855752,"gmtCreate":1623981977905,"gmtModify":1635312172617,"authorId":3566532164444643,"author":{"id":3566532164444643,"idStr":"3566532164444643","authorId":3566532164444643,"name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","vip":2,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168507396,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Will climb with trillions in printing over next few years. Just stay invested","text":"Will climb with trillions in printing over next few years. Just stay invested","html":"Will climb with trillions in printing over next few years. Just stay invested"},{"id":4859140,"gmtCreate":1623986065542,"gmtModify":1635311820879,"authorId":3570751249933438,"author":{"id":3570751249933438,"idStr":"3570751249933438","authorId":3570751249933438,"name":"edgetrader","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0e920d94a7891f4c6393f3e5510ccc","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168507396,"type":1,"supId":4855752,"prevId":0,"content":"Still printing? Fed saId they slowing down soon ","text":"Still printing? Fed saId they slowing down soon ","html":"Still printing? Fed saId they slowing down soon "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168508989,"gmtCreate":1623977815441,"gmtModify":1634024923222,"author":{"id":"3570069153864313","authorId":"3570069153864313","name":"Racheltestin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83746feea9af3c17ae42ff00d7ca9254","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3570069153864313","authorIdStr":"3570069153864313"},"htmlText":"Like and comment pls thank you :)&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls thank you :)&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls thank you :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168508989","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4853573,"gmtCreate":1623977958749,"gmtModify":1635312397036,"authorId":3579998898288031,"author":{"id":3579998898288031,"idStr":"3579998898288031","authorId":3579998898288031,"name":"MamaLee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b65143242ad70cd231ddce7436fdb25","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168508989,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"},{"id":4854024,"gmtCreate":1623978713216,"gmtModify":1635312349891,"authorId":3579426471617435,"author":{"id":3579426471617435,"idStr":"3579426471617435","authorId":3579426471617435,"name":"osp95","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168508989,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"okay","text":"okay","html":"okay"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168272974,"gmtCreate":1623977643398,"gmtModify":1634024930850,"author":{"id":"3582714812293607","authorId":"3582714812293607","name":"Darylzhuo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5e4be85ccfbeb4c1c4b4faed74f6f1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3582714812293607","authorIdStr":"3582714812293607"},"htmlText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168272974","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4855755,"gmtCreate":1623981990188,"gmtModify":1635312172263,"authorId":3566532164444643,"author":{"id":3566532164444643,"idStr":"3566532164444643","authorId":3566532164444643,"name":"ZEROHERO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62813b6df1c4722e559d112fadd5486a","vip":2,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168272974,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168242446,"gmtCreate":1623977409085,"gmtModify":1634024939068,"author":{"id":"3581980965309451","authorId":"3581980965309451","name":"Eded","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a629a3014601072ee8dc2d151d1796","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3581980965309451","authorIdStr":"3581980965309451"},"htmlText":"It’s always the middle of the price movement between Dow Jones and nasdaq. If both index are rising , s&amp;p should rise . Please like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"It’s always the middle of the price movement between Dow Jones and nasdaq. If both index are rising , s&amp;p should rise . Please like and comment&nbsp;","text":"It’s always the middle of the price movement between Dow Jones and nasdaq. If both index are rising , s&p should rise . Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168242446","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168249993,"gmtCreate":1623977238212,"gmtModify":1634024944405,"author":{"id":"3570769377369254","authorId":"3570769377369254","name":"Glenna","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cb1540811be40c4d05341502c35498c","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3570769377369254","authorIdStr":"3570769377369254"},"htmlText":"wow good","listText":"wow good","text":"wow good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168249993","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4853423,"gmtCreate":1623977625002,"gmtModify":1635312412085,"authorId":3576229504589645,"author":{"id":3576229504589645,"idStr":"3576229504589645","authorId":3576229504589645,"name":"Sgalex85","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fddf91378d0ac0f7d96583ba1e0d790b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":168249993,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Nice ","text":"Nice ","html":"Nice "}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168257367,"gmtCreate":1623977184159,"gmtModify":1634024946275,"author":{"id":"3586429429180773","authorId":"3586429429180773","name":"Cindy8989","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adcfce66b77ff6400844ec5d5e92ad3f","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3586429429180773","authorIdStr":"3586429429180773"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168257367","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168224550,"gmtCreate":1623976905870,"gmtModify":1634024955008,"author":{"id":"3575431836205857","authorId":"3575431836205857","name":"JonathanT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2632c1769669f38825c0a45bf5c0be95","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3575431836205857","authorIdStr":"3575431836205857"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168224550","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168224954,"gmtCreate":1623976891678,"gmtModify":1634024955697,"author":{"id":"3574392084255465","authorId":"3574392084255465","name":"dent","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54b2a08f8905d05e3d00b78582bf531","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3574392084255465","authorIdStr":"3574392084255465"},"htmlText":"The market will recover it’s just a matter of when.These dips in the market are all buying opportunities. Look at the crash in 2006 and 2008, if you bought then you would be sitting pretty right now.Of course the dip isn’t as bad as those crashes but if you’re buying now and once the market recovers you’ll still be having a tidy profit.So keep holding and if you can buy more.","listText":"The market will recover it’s just a matter of when.These dips in the market are all buying opportunities. Look at the crash in 2006 and 2008, if you bought then you would be sitting pretty right now.Of course the dip isn’t as bad as those crashes but if you’re buying now and once the market recovers you’ll still be having a tidy profit.So keep holding and if you can buy more.","text":"The market will recover it’s just a matter of when.These dips in the market are all buying opportunities. Look at the crash in 2006 and 2008, if you bought then you would be sitting pretty right now.Of course the dip isn’t as bad as those crashes but if you’re buying now and once the market recovers you’ll still be having a tidy profit.So keep holding and if you can buy more.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168224954","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":168222125,"gmtCreate":1623976853967,"gmtModify":1634024957326,"author":{"id":"3582664644217188","authorId":"3582664644217188","name":"Nigel2112","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7b0a9beceb34518baf2f08d0b82e9af","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3582664644217188","authorIdStr":"3582664644217188"},"htmlText":"bibi i","listText":"bibi i","text":"bibi i","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168222125","repostId":1169452580,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169452580","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623976154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169452580?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 08:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169452580","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/","content":"The stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs the S&P 500 falters, this is what it will take to revive the bull market<blockquote>随着标普500步履蹒跚，这就是重振牛市的必要条件</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nMarketWatch2021-06-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe stock market’s key level is 4190<blockquote>股市关键水平是4190</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a1dc768fe79cb0fda59c2aa0b93f\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"961\">Running with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES<blockquote>和公牛一起跑步会让人筋疲力尽。法新社/盖蒂图片社</blockquote> Over the past two weeks, the S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.<blockquote>过去两周，标普500指数一直试图向上突破。此前的高点 4238 是在 5 月初创下的，虽然 SPX 确实连续五天收盘或交易在 4238 上方，但没有后续行动。现在美联储会议带来的紧张情绪已经导致指数回落至该水平下方。</blockquote> I wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.<blockquote>我还不会把这归类为 “假突破 ”，但它已经非常接近了。</blockquote> SPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 一直在窄幅区间内交易，并且似乎已被拉回该区间。低于 4190 的收盘价将低于该范围底部的收盘价，并且那个在我看来，这将是一次 “假突破 ”的完成。</blockquote> A failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.<blockquote>该水平的失败将带来回撤的幽灵，一直到更大的交易区间的底部——5月份的低点4060。这一水平的失败将更加可怕，并可能引发新的熊市。</blockquote> But before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.<blockquote>但在被可怕的预测冲昏头脑之前，应该指出的是，空头有很多很多机会控制局面——特别是自去年12月以来——但每次都失败了。情况仍然是，通过突破现在从4238到最近的新高4257的相当浓缩的阻力区，回到历史新高，将使多头重新获得明显的控制权。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05764c1c1d52ace424d326a7a0b116d\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"694\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> The limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&amp;P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).<blockquote>自 5 月 24 日以来，SPX 的有限波动导致已实现或历史波动性 (HV) 大幅下降。标准普尔的 20 天 HV 指数现已降至 7%（回升至 11% 以上将是卖出信号，但这并非迫在眉睫）。</blockquote> In turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&amp;P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.<blockquote>反过来，实现波动率的下降又导致 “修正布林带 ”（mBB）在标准普尔仍在上升的 20 日移动平均线附近收紧。5月初的麦克米伦波动带（MVB）卖出信号仍然有效。它要么会升至+4σ波段以上而被阻止，要么会触及-4σ波段而达到目标。这两种情况现在都更有可能发生，因为波段正在收缩。</blockquote> Equity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.<blockquote>纯股票看跌期权看涨期权比率仍处于买入信号状态。他们在五月下旬转向下行，发出了这些买入信号。从那时起，看涨期权的购买仍然相对较多，迫使这些比率下降。只要它们在下跌，这对股票来说就是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df3290d0ca5e563bba9819c21394cd9\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"702\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cfe716af41c1797bbb147a441d73df0\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"692\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Breadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.<blockquote>宽度一直是个问题。虽然我们的宽度振荡器确实在 5 月 13 日发出了买入信号，但它们从未真正扩大，因为 SPX 最近创下了历史新高。这不是一个好兆头，现在宽度在过去三个交易日一直为负值。这足以将 “仅限股票 ”宽度振荡器转化为卖出信号。</blockquote> The NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.<blockquote>纽约证券交易所宽度振荡指标尚未达成一致，但今天再出现一天的负宽度也将迫使其发出卖出信号。</blockquote> Meanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.<blockquote>与此同时，累积宽度指标与 SPX 一起创下历史新高，但正如我的读者应该知道的那样，我认为这不是预测性的。这只意味着负背离没有到位。即便如此，并不是每个市场顶部都有负背离。所以，就目前而言，宽度已经成为一个问题。</blockquote> The measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.<blockquote>然而，对于多头来说，52周新高与52周新低的衡量标准不是问题。在所有三个数据集中，新高继续主导新低。因此，该指标仍然看涨。</blockquote> Volatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX&nbsp;has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.<blockquote>波动率和波动率衍生品在去年的大部分时间里一直处于看涨阵营，而且现在仍然如此。VIX 尚未恢复 “飙升 ”模式（在任何三天时间范围内，使用收盘价计算，涨幅为 3.00 点或以上）。因此，5 月 21 日的 “峰值峰值 ”买入信号保持不变。与此同时，VIX图表的趋势仍然较低，因为VIX远低于其下降的200日移动平均线，20日移动平均线也是如此。</blockquote> The construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.<blockquote>波动性衍生品的结构仍然看好股票。也就是说，VIX期货（现在7月是其中的前一个月）的交易价格都比VIX有相当大的溢价，而且它们的期限结构向上倾斜。同样，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数的期限结构也呈上升趋势。这些都是股市的看涨迹象。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17c7a9b8266644b877085c11cc2429a6\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> In summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&amp;P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.<blockquote>综上所述，指标依然多为利好，所以只要标普500能够维持在4190上方，我们依然看多。由于可能会出现确认的卖出信号，我们将围绕基本 “核心 ”看涨头寸进行交易。</blockquote> New recommendation: SPX upside breakout<blockquote>新推荐：SPX 上行突破</blockquote> Should SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.<blockquote>如果SPX复苏并创下历史新高，我们希望采取相应的多头头寸。</blockquote> IF SPX closes above 4260,<blockquote>如果SPX收盘价高于4260，</blockquote> THEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.<blockquote>然后买2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（16日）在货币评级。</blockquote> SPX: 4223<blockquote>SPX：4223</blockquote> NOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.<blockquote>注意：我们没有使用看涨期权牛市价差来提供此建议，因为 VIX 足够低（如果 SPX 创下历史新高，价差可能会更低），因此没有必要使用价差。看涨期权牛市价差与直接多头看涨期权头寸相反，只有在波动性较高时（即期权 “定价过高时”）才需要。情况已不再如此。</blockquote> New Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics<blockquote>新推荐：Rapt治疗</blockquote> This past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.<blockquote>过去一周，许多领域都出现了不寻常的期权交易量，但收购传闻却没有那么多。Churchill Capital Corp. 和 GS Acquisition Holdings Corp. 这两家新的 SPAC 合并交易量很大。这些通常在合并宣布后的头几天就过度了。Petco Health &amp; Wellness Co.的期权交易量也很大，但这似乎与社交媒体留言板有关——这是购买股票的一个可疑理由。</blockquote> However, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.<blockquote>然而，在 Rapt Therapeutics 中，有一个重大的药物公告，其形式是一种治疗湿疹的药物的积极试验结果。显然，这种药物有很大的潜力。该股一天之内从 19 点飙升至 42 点，但现在已回落至 31 点。这是一个非常激进的建议，但至少购买看涨期权期权，你知道你的风险是什么——看涨期权的成本。</blockquote> Buy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call<blockquote>购买 1 RAPT 7 月 (16) 30 日看涨期权</blockquote> At a price of 5.00 or less.<blockquote>以5.00或更低的价格。</blockquote> RAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00<blockquote>RAPT:31.90 7月（16日）30看涨期权：4.50出价，5.00报价</blockquote> If the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.<blockquote>如果看涨期权被买入，请在收盘价低于 26 点时止损，因为这将缩小去年 12 月的缺口，并且不符合看涨前景。</blockquote> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b63b8c6a70a7ad7227974855bc6355a7\" tg-width=\"924\" tg-height=\"690\">LAWRENCE MCMILLAN<blockquote>劳伦斯·麦克米伦</blockquote> Follow-up action<blockquote>后续行动</blockquote> All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.<blockquote>除非另有说明，所有止损均为精神收盘止损。</blockquote> Long 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.<blockquote>多头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月 (2) 410 看跌期权：这笔交易最初是因为 5 月 12 日出现了 MVB 卖出信号。SPX 将再次收于 +4σ 波段上方，该波段位于 4280 点并横向移动，从而阻止了它。如果 SPX 在 -4σ 波段交易，该信号将达到其利润目标，该波段目前位于 4135 并正在上升。</blockquote> Long 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy&nbsp;except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to&nbsp;July (16th) 100 calls.<blockquote>Long 3 于 6 月 (18) 日到期 100 评级：除了每当股票小幅上涨时，期权交易量就会增加这一事实之外，还没有关于杜克能源公司激进投资者的任何消息。我们要滚到7月（16日）100评级。</blockquote> Long 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.<blockquote>多头 2 到期 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 415 评级和空头 2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 6 月 18 日 428 评级：5 月 21 日，最新的 VIX “尖峰 ”买入信号得到确认时，买入了这一价差。由于信号仍然完好无损（勉强），卖出这个价差，代之以买入2 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7月（9日）平价评级。我们在这里不再使用传播。如果VIX回到飙升模式——也就是说，如果它在任何三天或更短时间内上涨至少3.00点（使用收盘价），评级将被停止。今天，收盘价将超过 19.39。同时，如果位置是止损后，新的 “尖峰 ”买入信号将很快形成。</blockquote> Long 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.<blockquote>龙1到期KSU君(18日)300看涨期权：这次收购要约并不顺利。卖掉这些评级，不要更换。</blockquote> Long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.<blockquote>多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看涨期权和多头 1 SPDR标普500指数ETF 7 月（16 日）420 看跌期权：这种多头跨式交易是在预期 SPX 将波动地离开 420 水平。如果 SPX 交易价格为 437，请将评级从 420 走势卷到 437 走势（或最接近该走势的走势）。相反，如果 SPX 交易价格为 403，则将看跌期权下调至 403。</blockquote> Long 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.<blockquote>长4欧洲核子研究中心6月（18日）80评级：在过去的一周——6月14日——收购传闻再次猖獗。滚动到7月（16日）80评级。</blockquote> Long 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand&nbsp;closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.<blockquote>龙4奇迹7月（16日）47.5评级：我们的建议是，如果 Cornerstone OnDemand 收盘价高于 47 点，就买入这些评级，它在 6 月 4 日就做到了。提高追踪，收盘止损至48.00。</blockquote> Long 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox&nbsp;closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.<blockquote>Long 4 DBX 7 月（16 日）28 日评级：我们的建议是，如果Dropbox收盘价高于28.50，就购买这些评级，它在6月7日就做到了。这也是一种 “激进投资者 ”的情况。提高追踪，收盘止损至27.80。</blockquote> Long 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.<blockquote>长6 CVA 7月（16日）17.5评级：坚持不懈，而有关该公司寻求战略替代方案的传言有机会得到证实。</blockquote> Long 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. Hold without a stop.<blockquote>长4 SDC 7月（16日）9日评级：随着收购传闻的持续流传，期权交易量仍然适度增加。不停地坚持。</blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/as-the-s-p-500-falters-this-is-what-it-will-take-to-revive-the-bull-market-11623942534?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169452580","content_text":"The stock market’s key level is 4190\nRunning with the bulls can be exhausting. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nOver the past two weeks, the S&P 500 index has been attempting to break out to the upside. The previous highs at 4238 were registered in early May, and while SPX did close or trade above 4238 for five straight days, there was no follow-through. Now the nervousness brought about by the Federal Reserve meeting has caused the index to fall back below that level.\nI wouldn’t classify this as a “false breakout” yet, but it’s pretty close to being one.\nSPX has been trading in a tight range since May 24, and it seems to have been pulled back into that range. A close below 4190 would be a close below the bottom of that range, andthatwould be the completion of a “false breakout,” in my opinion.\nA failure at that level would bring about the specter of a retracement all the way to the bottom of the larger trading range – to the May lows at 4060. A failure of that level would be much more dire and might be the issuance of a new bear market.\nBut before getting carried away with dire predictions, it should be noted that the bears have had many, many chances to take control – especially since last December – and have failed to do so every time. It is still the case that the return to new all-time highs, via a breakout over what is now a rather condensed resistance area from 4238 up to the recent new highs at 4257, would return clear control to the bulls.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nThe limited movement that has been seen by SPX since May 24 has had the effect of drastically dropping the realized, or historical volatility (HV). The S&P’s 20-day HV is now down to 7% (a rise back above 11% would be a sell signal, but that’s not imminent).\nIn turn, this drop in realized volatility has caused the “modified Bollinger Bands” (mBB) to tighten about the S&P’s still-rising 20-day Moving Average. The McMillan Volatility Band (MVB) sell signal of early May is still in effect. It will either be stopped out by rising above the +4σ Band, or it will reach its target by touching the -4σ Band. Both of those are now more likely, since the Bands are constricting.\nEquity-only put-call ratios remain on buy signals. They turned downward, issuing those buy signals, in late May. Call buying has remained relatively heavy since then, forcing those ratios lower. As long as they are declining, that is a bullish sign for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nBreadth has been something of a problem. While our breadth oscillators did issue buy signal on May 13, they never really expanded as SPX was making those new all-time highs recently. That is not a good sign, and now breadth has been negative for the last three trading days. This is enough to roll the “stocks only” breadth oscillator over to a sell signal.\nThe NYSE breadth oscillator is not yet in agreement, but one more day of negative breadth today would force that onto a sell signal as well.\nMeanwhile, the cumulative breadth indicators had been making new all-time highs along with SPX, but as readers of mine should know, I do not consider that predictive. It only means that a negative divergence is not in place. Even so, not every market top has a negative divergence. So, for now, breadth has become something of a problem.\nThe measure of new 52-week highs vs. new 52-week lows, however, is not a problem as far as the bulls are concerned. New highs continue to dominate new lows across all three data sets. So, this indicator remains bullish.\nVolatility and volatility derivatives have remained in the bullish camp for most of the last year, and they are still there. VIX has not returned to “spiking” mode (a gain of 3.00 or more points, using closing prices, over any three-day time frame). Thus, the “spike peak” buy signal of May 21 remains intact. Meanwhile, the trend of the VIX chart is still lower, as VIX is well below its declining 200-day moving average, and so is the 20-day MA.\nThe construct of volatility derivatives remains bullish for stocks. That is, the VIX futures (of which July is now the front month) are all trading at fairly large premiums to VIX, and their term structure slopes upward. Likewise, the term structure of the CBOE Volatility Indices slopes upward, too. Those are all bullish signs for stocks.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nIn summary, the indicators are still mostly positive, so as long as the S&P 500 can remain above 4190, we are still bullish. As confirmed sell signals may arise, we will trade them around the essentially “core” bullish position.\nNew recommendation: SPX upside breakout\nShould SPX recover and make new all-time highs, we want to take a corresponding long position.\nIF SPX closes above 4260,\nTHEN buy 2 SPY July (16th) at-the-money calls.\nSPX: 4223\nNOTE: We are not use a call bull spread for this recommendation, since VIX is low enough (and will likely be lower if SPX makes new all-time highs) that the spread is not necessary. Call bull spreads, as opposed to outright long call positions, are only called for when volatility is high (i.e., when the options are “over-priced”). That is not the case any longer.\nNew Recommendation: Rapt Therapeutics\nThis past week, there has been unusual option volume in a number of areas, but not so much in takeover rumors. There was heavy volume in a couple of the new SPAC mergers – Churchill Capital Corp. and GS Acquisition Holdings Corp.Those are typically overdone in the first few days after the mergers are announced. There was also heavy option volume in Petco Health & Wellness Co.,but that seem to be related to the social media message boards – a dubious reason for buying a stock.\nHowever, in Rapt Therapeutics,there was a major drug announcement in the form of the results of a positive trial for a drug for eczema. Apparently, there is major potential for such a drug. The stock exploded from 19 to 42 in one day but has now pulled back to 31. This is a highly aggressive recommendation, but at least with a call option purchase, you know what your risk is – the cost of the call.\nBuy 1 RAPT July (16th) 30 call\nAt a price of 5.00 or less.\nRAPT: 31.90 July (16th) 30 call: 4.50 bid, offered at 5.00\nIf the call is bought, stop yourself out on a close below 26 by RAPT, for that would close that gap from last December and would not be in line with a bullish outlook.\nLAWRENCE MCMILLAN\nFollow-up action\nAll stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.\nLong 2 SPY July (2nd) 410 puts:This trade was originally taken because of the MVB sell signal that occurred on May 12. It would be stopped out by SPX once again closing above the +4σ Band, which is at 4280 and moving sideways. The signal would reach its profit target if SPX trades at the -4σ Band, which is currently at 4135 and rising.\nLong 3 expiring DUK June (18th) 100 calls:There has not been any news on the activist investor in Duke Energy except for the fact that option volume picks up whenever the stock rallies slightly. We are going to roll to July (16th) 100 calls.\nLong 2 expiring SPY June (18th) 415 calls and short 2 SPY June (18th) 428 calls:This spread was bought when the most recent VIX “spike peak” buy signal was confirmed on May 21. Since the signal is still intact (barely), sell this spread and replace it by buying 2 SPY July (9th) at-the-money calls. We are no longer using a spread here. The calls would be stopped out if VIX were to return to spiking mode – that is, if it rose at least 3.00 points over any three-day or shorter period (using closing prices). Today, that would be a close over 19.39. Meanwhile, if the positionisstopped out, a new “spike peak” buy signal will set up shortly.\nLong 1 expiring KSU Jun (18th) 300 call:This takeover bid has not worked out well. Sell these calls and do not replace them.\nLong 1 SPY July (16th) 420 call and long 1 SPY July (16th) 420 put:This long straddle is in anticipation of SPX making a volatile move away from the 420 level. If SPX trades at 437, roll up the calls from the 420 strike to the 437 strike (or the closest strike to that). Conversely, if SPX trades at 403, roll down the puts to the 403 strike.\nLong 4 CERN June (18th) 80 calls:The takeover rumors were rampant again this past week – on June 14. Roll to theJuly (16th) 80 calls.\nLong 4 CSOD July (16th) 47.5 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Cornerstone OnDemand closed above 47, which it did on June 4. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 48.00.\nLong 4 DBX July (16th) 28 calls:Our recommendation was to buy these calls if Dropbox closed above 28.50, which it did on June 7. This is also an “activist investor” situation. Raise the trailing, closing stop to 27.80.\nLong 6 CVA July (16th) 17.5 calls:Hold without a stop, while the rumor of the company pursuing strategic alternatives has a chance to work out.\nLong 4 SDC July (16th) 9 calls:Option volume remains modestly heavy as takeover rumors continue to circulate. 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