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How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years

Barrons2022-02-06

Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.It’s a provocative ...

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It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":633215662,"gmtCreate":1644120855667,"gmtModify":1644120855859,"author":{"id":"3561443675471397","authorId":"3561443675471397","name":"wisley","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3561443675471397","idStr":"3561443675471397"},"htmlText":"Drop","listText":"Drop","text":"Drop","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633215662","repostId":1167513065,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167513065","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644109830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167513065?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-06 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短5年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167513065","media":"Barrons","summary":"Teslacould be bigger than bothGeneral MotorsandFord Motorcombined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonasis thinking.It’s a provocative idea for ","content":"<html><head></head><body>Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果一切都按照Morgan Stanley分析师Adam Jonas的想法发展，按销售额计算，特斯拉可能在短短五年内超过通用汽车和福特汽车的总和。</body></html></blockquote>It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.<blockquote>这是一个值得投资者思考的挑衅性想法，而且有点令人震惊。</blockquote>Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.<blockquote>两家销售额数千亿的百年汽车制造商被一家成立不到20年的初创公司黯然失色，这似乎不太可能。真的不应该。市场已经宣告了电动汽车转型的胜利。尽管如此，这种市场份额转变和增长背后的数学原理还是值得关注的。</blockquote>“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.<blockquote>Jonas在周四发布的一份报告中写道：“我们采访的大多数汽车投资者仍在纠结特斯拉是否会比通用或福特更大。”</blockquote>But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.<blockquote>但是乔纳斯一点也不觉得这个想法很难理解。事实上，他相信到2027年，特斯拉的销量将超过通用汽车和福特。</blockquote>There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.<blockquote>他的思想实验有一个问题。在“运行率”的基础上，特斯拉将比两者都大——本质上是对最新数据进行年化。例如，特斯拉在2021年第四季度售出了约309,000辆汽车。根据乔纳斯的计算，这家电动汽车先驱的汽车产量约为124万辆。</blockquote>Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉第四季度销售额约为250亿美元，其运行销售额约为1000亿美元。通用汽车的销售额为335亿美元，即年运行率约为1340亿美元。福特的营收为377亿美元，年增长率约为1510亿美元。</blockquote>For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.<blockquote>Jonas计算出1月份特斯拉占美国销售额的4%，他估计该公司在单位销售额中的份额约为3.5%。特斯拉的车比一般车贵。</blockquote>By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.<blockquote>Jonas预计，到2026年底，特斯拉将拥有美国市场10%的单位份额。他对通用汽车和福特汽车份额的估计分别约为14%和11%。届时特斯拉的平均售价仍将较高。</blockquote>Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.<blockquote>综合起来，Jonas预计到2026年底特斯拉的销售额约为3000亿美元。通用汽车和福特仍应保持在1500亿美元左右。</blockquote>For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.<blockquote>对乔纳斯的客户来说，他最好是对的。特斯拉的定价已经像是要赢得市场份额一样。特斯拉的销量可能仍落后于通用和福特，但在一个关键指标上，它让所有其他汽车制造商相形见绌：市值。</blockquote>Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值约为9000亿美元，大约是通用和福特市值总和的六倍。</blockquote>With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.<blockquote>鉴于这样的差距，特斯拉将需要在2027年及以后继续增长。乔纳斯肯定看到了这一点。到本世纪末，他的特斯拉“钱包份额”（本质上是单位份额乘以平均定价）将达到美国市场的23%。</blockquote>On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.<blockquote>周五，特斯拉股价上涨3.6%，收于923.32美元。标普500上涨0.5%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.1%。</blockquote>Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.<blockquote>现在，华尔街非常想知道乔纳斯在想什么。如果他是对的，他的客户不仅会高兴。他们会笑到最后。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短5年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短5年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2022-02-06 09:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果一切都按照Morgan Stanley分析师Adam Jonas的想法发展，按销售额计算，特斯拉可能在短短五年内超过通用汽车和福特汽车的总和。</body></html></blockquote>It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.<blockquote>这是一个值得投资者思考的挑衅性想法，而且有点令人震惊。</blockquote>Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.<blockquote>两家销售额数千亿的百年汽车制造商被一家成立不到20年的初创公司黯然失色，这似乎不太可能。真的不应该。市场已经宣告了电动汽车转型的胜利。尽管如此，这种市场份额转变和增长背后的数学原理还是值得关注的。</blockquote>“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.<blockquote>Jonas在周四发布的一份报告中写道：“我们采访的大多数汽车投资者仍在纠结特斯拉是否会比通用或福特更大。”</blockquote>But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.<blockquote>但是乔纳斯一点也不觉得这个想法很难理解。事实上，他相信到2027年，特斯拉的销量将超过通用汽车和福特。</blockquote>There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.<blockquote>他的思想实验有一个问题。在“运行率”的基础上，特斯拉将比两者都大——本质上是对最新数据进行年化。例如，特斯拉在2021年第四季度售出了约309,000辆汽车。根据乔纳斯的计算，这家电动汽车先驱的汽车产量约为124万辆。</blockquote>Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉第四季度销售额约为250亿美元，其运行销售额约为1000亿美元。通用汽车的销售额为335亿美元，即年运行率约为1340亿美元。福特的营收为377亿美元，年增长率约为1510亿美元。</blockquote>For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.<blockquote>Jonas计算出1月份特斯拉占美国销售额的4%，他估计该公司在单位销售额中的份额约为3.5%。特斯拉的车比一般车贵。</blockquote>By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.<blockquote>Jonas预计，到2026年底，特斯拉将拥有美国市场10%的单位份额。他对通用汽车和福特汽车份额的估计分别约为14%和11%。届时特斯拉的平均售价仍将较高。</blockquote>Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.<blockquote>综合起来，Jonas预计到2026年底特斯拉的销售额约为3000亿美元。通用汽车和福特仍应保持在1500亿美元左右。</blockquote>For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.<blockquote>对乔纳斯的客户来说，他最好是对的。特斯拉的定价已经像是要赢得市场份额一样。特斯拉的销量可能仍落后于通用和福特，但在一个关键指标上，它让所有其他汽车制造商相形见绌：市值。</blockquote>Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值约为9000亿美元，大约是通用和福特市值总和的六倍。</blockquote>With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.<blockquote>鉴于这样的差距，特斯拉将需要在2027年及以后继续增长。乔纳斯肯定看到了这一点。到本世纪末，他的特斯拉“钱包份额”（本质上是单位份额乘以平均定价）将达到美国市场的23%。</blockquote>On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.<blockquote>周五，特斯拉股价上涨3.6%，收于923.32美元。标普500上涨0.5%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.1%。</blockquote>Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.<blockquote>现在，华尔街非常想知道乔纳斯在想什么。如果他是对的，他的客户不仅会高兴。他们会笑到最后。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bigger-than-ford-gm-5-years-51643992236\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bigger-than-ford-gm-5-years-51643992236","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167513065","content_text":"Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":633210998,"gmtCreate":1644110952301,"gmtModify":1644110952897,"author":{"id":"3570863489388697","authorId":"3570863489388697","name":"boonhup","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aefb0b8716445957d6db1796c7bc4dd4","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3570863489388697","idStr":"3570863489388697"},"htmlText":"Please like and comments thanks 😊","listText":"Please like and comments thanks 😊","text":"Please like and comments thanks 😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633210998","repostId":1167513065,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167513065","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644109830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167513065?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-06 09:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短5年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167513065","media":"Barrons","summary":"Teslacould be bigger than bothGeneral MotorsandFord Motorcombined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analystAdam Jonasis thinking.It’s a provocative idea for ","content":"<html><head></head><body>Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果一切都按照Morgan Stanley分析师Adam Jonas的想法发展，按销售额计算，特斯拉可能在短短五年内超过通用汽车和福特汽车的总和。</body></html></blockquote>It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.<blockquote>这是一个值得投资者思考的挑衅性想法，而且有点令人震惊。</blockquote>Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.<blockquote>两家销售额数千亿的百年汽车制造商被一家成立不到20年的初创公司黯然失色，这似乎不太可能。真的不应该。市场已经宣告了电动汽车转型的胜利。尽管如此，这种市场份额转变和增长背后的数学原理还是值得关注的。</blockquote>“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.<blockquote>Jonas在周四发布的一份报告中写道：“我们采访的大多数汽车投资者仍在纠结特斯拉是否会比通用或福特更大。”</blockquote>But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.<blockquote>但是乔纳斯一点也不觉得这个想法很难理解。事实上，他相信到2027年，特斯拉的销量将超过通用汽车和福特。</blockquote>There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.<blockquote>他的思想实验有一个问题。在“运行率”的基础上，特斯拉将比两者都大——本质上是对最新数据进行年化。例如，特斯拉在2021年第四季度售出了约309,000辆汽车。根据乔纳斯的计算，这家电动汽车先驱的汽车产量约为124万辆。</blockquote>Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉第四季度销售额约为250亿美元，其运行销售额约为1000亿美元。通用汽车的销售额为335亿美元，即年运行率约为1340亿美元。福特的营收为377亿美元，年增长率约为1510亿美元。</blockquote>For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.<blockquote>Jonas计算出1月份特斯拉占美国销售额的4%，他估计该公司在单位销售额中的份额约为3.5%。特斯拉的车比一般车贵。</blockquote>By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.<blockquote>Jonas预计，到2026年底，特斯拉将拥有美国市场10%的单位份额。他对通用汽车和福特汽车份额的估计分别约为14%和11%。届时特斯拉的平均售价仍将较高。</blockquote>Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.<blockquote>综合起来，Jonas预计到2026年底特斯拉的销售额约为3000亿美元。通用汽车和福特仍应保持在1500亿美元左右。</blockquote>For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.<blockquote>对乔纳斯的客户来说，他最好是对的。特斯拉的定价已经像是要赢得市场份额一样。特斯拉的销量可能仍落后于通用和福特，但在一个关键指标上，它让所有其他汽车制造商相形见绌：市值。</blockquote>Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值约为9000亿美元，大约是通用和福特市值总和的六倍。</blockquote>With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.<blockquote>鉴于这样的差距，特斯拉将需要在2027年及以后继续增长。乔纳斯肯定看到了这一点。到本世纪末，他的特斯拉“钱包份额”（本质上是单位份额乘以平均定价）将达到美国市场的23%。</blockquote>On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.<blockquote>周五，特斯拉股价上涨3.6%，收于923.32美元。标普500上涨0.5%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.1%。</blockquote>Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.<blockquote>现在，华尔街非常想知道乔纳斯在想什么。如果他是对的，他的客户不仅会高兴。他们会笑到最后。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短5年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Tesla Could Be Bigger Than Ford and GM—Combined—in Just 5 Years<blockquote>特斯拉如何在短短5年内超过福特和通用汽车的总和</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\nBarrons2022-02-06 09:10\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body>Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.<blockquote><html><head></head><body>如果一切都按照Morgan Stanley分析师Adam Jonas的想法发展，按销售额计算，特斯拉可能在短短五年内超过通用汽车和福特汽车的总和。</body></html></blockquote>It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.<blockquote>这是一个值得投资者思考的挑衅性想法，而且有点令人震惊。</blockquote>Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.<blockquote>两家销售额数千亿的百年汽车制造商被一家成立不到20年的初创公司黯然失色，这似乎不太可能。真的不应该。市场已经宣告了电动汽车转型的胜利。尽管如此，这种市场份额转变和增长背后的数学原理还是值得关注的。</blockquote>“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.<blockquote>Jonas在周四发布的一份报告中写道：“我们采访的大多数汽车投资者仍在纠结特斯拉是否会比通用或福特更大。”</blockquote>But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.<blockquote>但是乔纳斯一点也不觉得这个想法很难理解。事实上，他相信到2027年，特斯拉的销量将超过通用汽车和福特。</blockquote>There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.<blockquote>他的思想实验有一个问题。在“运行率”的基础上，特斯拉将比两者都大——本质上是对最新数据进行年化。例如，特斯拉在2021年第四季度售出了约309,000辆汽车。根据乔纳斯的计算，这家电动汽车先驱的汽车产量约为124万辆。</blockquote>Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.<blockquote>特斯拉第四季度销售额约为250亿美元，其运行销售额约为1000亿美元。通用汽车的销售额为335亿美元，即年运行率约为1340亿美元。福特的营收为377亿美元，年增长率约为1510亿美元。</blockquote>For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.<blockquote>Jonas计算出1月份特斯拉占美国销售额的4%，他估计该公司在单位销售额中的份额约为3.5%。特斯拉的车比一般车贵。</blockquote>By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.<blockquote>Jonas预计，到2026年底，特斯拉将拥有美国市场10%的单位份额。他对通用汽车和福特汽车份额的估计分别约为14%和11%。届时特斯拉的平均售价仍将较高。</blockquote>Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.<blockquote>综合起来，Jonas预计到2026年底特斯拉的销售额约为3000亿美元。通用汽车和福特仍应保持在1500亿美元左右。</blockquote>For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.<blockquote>对乔纳斯的客户来说，他最好是对的。特斯拉的定价已经像是要赢得市场份额一样。特斯拉的销量可能仍落后于通用和福特，但在一个关键指标上，它让所有其他汽车制造商相形见绌：市值。</blockquote>Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.<blockquote>特斯拉的市值约为9000亿美元，大约是通用和福特市值总和的六倍。</blockquote>With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.<blockquote>鉴于这样的差距，特斯拉将需要在2027年及以后继续增长。乔纳斯肯定看到了这一点。到本世纪末，他的特斯拉“钱包份额”（本质上是单位份额乘以平均定价）将达到美国市场的23%。</blockquote>On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.<blockquote>周五，特斯拉股价上涨3.6%，收于923.32美元。标普500上涨0.5%。道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.1%。</blockquote>Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.<blockquote>现在，华尔街非常想知道乔纳斯在想什么。如果他是对的，他的客户不仅会高兴。他们会笑到最后。</blockquote></body></html><blockquote></blockquote>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bigger-than-ford-gm-5-years-51643992236\">Barrons</a>\n为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-bigger-than-ford-gm-5-years-51643992236","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167513065","content_text":"Tesla could be bigger than both General Motors and Ford Motor combined, by sales, in justfive years— if everything plays out the way Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is thinking.It’s a provocative idea for investors to ponder — and a bit of a shocking one.Two century-old auto makers with hundreds of billions in sales eclipsed by a start-up founded less than 20 years ago doesn’t seem plausible. It really shouldn’t be. The market has already declared a victory in the electric vehicle transition. Still, the math behind that kind of market share shift and growth is something to behold.“Most auto investors we speak with still struggle with the idea that Tesla could ever be bigger than either GM or Ford,” wrote Jonas in a report published Thursday.But Jonas doesn’t find the idea hard to grasp, at all. In fact, he believes Tesla sales will be larger that GM plus Ford by 2027.There is one catch with his thought experiment. Tesla will be bigger than both on a “run-rate” basis — essentially annualizing whatever data is most recent. Tesla, for instance, sold roughly 309,000 cars in the fourth quarter of 2021. Using Jonas’ math, the EV pioneer is producing cars at a run-rate of roughly 1.24 million units.Tesla’s fourth-quarter sales came in at roughly $25 billion, putting its run-rate sales at $100 billion or so. GM’s amounted to $33.5 billion, or an annual run rate of about $134 billion. And Ford’s came in at $37.7 billion,or an annual run rate of about $151 billion.For January, Jonas calculates Tesla had 4% of the dollar value of U.S. sales and he estimates the company’s share of unit sales was about 3.5%. Tesla’s vehicles are more expensive than the average vehicle.By the end of 2026, Jonas figures Tesla will have 10% unit share of the U.S. market. His estimates for GM and Ford unit share are roughly 14% and 11%, respectively. Tesla will still have higher average selling prices by then.Put it all together and Jonas projects run rate sales for Tesla at the end of 2026 at about $300 billion. GM and Ford should still be stuck around $150 billion each.For Jonas’ clients, he’d better be right. Tesla is already priced like it’s going to win market share. Its sales might still trail GM and Ford, the Tesla dwarfs every other auto maker on one key metric: market capitalization.Tesla’s market cap is roughly $900 billion, which is roughly six times the combined market value of GM and Ford.With a disparity like that, Tesla will need to keep growing in 2027 and beyond. Jonas definitely sees that happening. He has Tesla “share of wallet,” which is essentially unit share times average pricing, to 23% of the U.S. market by the end of the decade.On Friday, Tesla stock rose 3.6% closing at $923.32. The S&P 500 rose 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%.Right now, Wall Street is seriously wondering what Jonas could be thinking. If he is right, his clients won’t only be happy. They’ll be having the last laugh.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7231794,"gmtCreate":1644117156041,"gmtModify":1644117156081,"authorId":3571137160288122,"author":{"id":3571137160288122,"idStr":"3571137160288122","authorId":3571137160288122,"name":"AnthonyC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":633210998,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"},{"id":7231683,"gmtCreate":1644110961637,"gmtModify":1644110961686,"authorId":3570863489388697,"author":{"id":3570863489388697,"idStr":"3570863489388697","authorId":3570863489388697,"name":"boonhup","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aefb0b8716445957d6db1796c7bc4dd4","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":633210998,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"thx","text":"thx","html":"thx"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":27,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}