Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch._老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.

Barrons2021-07-29

When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment. Economists polled...

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147

Jazling
·2021-07-29
Wow
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1
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- Jazling:
  Ok
  2021-07-29
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Meshaarias72
·2021-07-29
Like n comment pls
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3
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- Jazling:
  Ok
  2021-07-29
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KYHBKO
·2021-07-29
It is 6.5% before the forecast of 8.5%. Let's watch how the market react. Trade well all
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1
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- Meshaarias72:
  Y
  2021-07-29
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- KYHBKO:
  sometimes beating the forecast can lead to market to rally. sometimes, not beating the forecast does not lead to the market to fall. there are other factors and sentiments in place.
  2021-07-30
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生肉麵加豬油渣
·2021-07-29
What shld i do with "likely be robust but may disappoint"?
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2
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- JustStonks:
  Hahahaha exactly thats what i was thinking too
  2021-07-29
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- LoneSurvivor:
  You can just 把它當放屁 🥴
  2021-07-29
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MG87
·2021-07-29
❤️
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点赞
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dine
·2021-07-29
Cool
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5
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- AT66:
  Like
  2021-07-29
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Chengstacy
·2021-07-29
Cool
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2
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- 4XKEYQ:
  Yeah
  2021-07-29
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- fearedhouse:
  yup
  2021-07-29
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- 股你怕么:
  fiod
  2021-07-29
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Elon2
·2021-07-29
..
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6
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xoomix
·2021-07-29
Boom
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3
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gogogofo
·2021-07-29
Daily like please
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4
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Thomas9413
·2021-07-29
Cool
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6
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- xoomix:
  Yes
  2021-07-29
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cheekychump
·2021-07-29
It's a close call.
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- Adollar:
  Great reAad
  2021-07-29
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- Thomas9413:
  Ok
  2021-07-29
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68fc893
·2021-07-29
Wow
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3
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But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"lsy1601382232898","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. 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What to Watch.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 18:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","article_id":"1166973685","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1601382232898","name":"Barrons"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"barrons.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. 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That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":808123055,"gmtCreate":1627565920277,"gmtModify":1633763753875,"author":{"id":"3566821013640470","authorId":"3566821013640470","name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3566821013640470","authorIdStr":"3566821013640470"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808123055","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5369969,"gmtCreate":1627565931471,"gmtModify":1635164912651,"authorId":3566821013640470,"author":{"id":3566821013640470,"idStr":"3566821013640470","authorId":3566821013640470,"name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808123055,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808119379,"gmtCreate":1627564359291,"gmtModify":1633763774676,"author":{"id":"3577781617271173","authorId":"3577781617271173","name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577781617271173","authorIdStr":"3577781617271173"},"htmlText":"Like n comment pls","listText":"Like n comment pls","text":"Like n comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808119379","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5369971,"gmtCreate":1627565938534,"gmtModify":1635164912389,"authorId":3566821013640470,"author":{"id":3566821013640470,"idStr":"3566821013640470","authorId":3566821013640470,"name":"Jazling","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85e0a83573d9307f57fca9b2baed72af","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808119379,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808106886,"gmtCreate":1627562354845,"gmtModify":1627562354845,"author":{"id":"3574381076586256","authorId":"3574381076586256","name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","vip":2,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorIdStr":"3574381076586256"},"htmlText":"It is 6.5% before the forecast of 8.5%. Let's watch how the market&nbsp;react. Trade well all","listText":"It is 6.5% before the forecast of 8.5%. Let's watch how the market&nbsp;react. Trade well all","text":"It is 6.5% before the forecast of 8.5%. Let's watch how the market react. Trade well all","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808106886","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5369721,"gmtCreate":1627564367762,"gmtModify":1635164931843,"authorId":3577781617271173,"author":{"id":3577781617271173,"idStr":"3577781617271173","authorId":3577781617271173,"name":"Meshaarias72","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5282cda6a9d3948fc067b21adcb578c","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808106886,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Y","text":"Y","html":"Y"},{"id":5378625,"gmtCreate":1627639156703,"gmtModify":1635164181149,"authorId":3574381076586256,"author":{"id":3574381076586256,"idStr":"3574381076586256","authorId":3574381076586256,"name":"KYHBKO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3bcbc7f9a10836dea92afc94bf39b5b","vip":2,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808106886,"type":1,"supId":5369721,"prevId":0,"content":"sometimes beating the forecast can lead to market to rally. sometimes, not beating the forecast does not lead to the market to fall. there are other factors and sentiments in place.","text":"sometimes beating the forecast can lead to market to rally. sometimes, not beating the forecast does not lead to the market to fall. there are other factors and sentiments in place.","html":"sometimes beating the forecast can lead to market to rally. sometimes, not beating the forecast does not lead to the market to fall. there are other factors and sentiments in place."}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808358165,"gmtCreate":1627560153857,"gmtModify":1631890762290,"author":{"id":"3559357742503712","authorId":"3559357742503712","name":"生肉麵加豬油渣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/797772e5857b1091ed85d4b17fe6201b","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559357742503712","authorIdStr":"3559357742503712"},"htmlText":"What shld i do with \"likely be robust but may disappoint\"?&nbsp;","listText":"What shld i do with \"likely be robust but may disappoint\"?&nbsp;","text":"What shld i do with \"likely be robust but may disappoint\"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808358165","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5369179,"gmtCreate":1627560517847,"gmtModify":1631890762312,"authorId":3575277705944076,"author":{"id":3575277705944076,"idStr":"3575277705944076","authorId":3575277705944076,"name":"JustStonks","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a85f9246d3c1c5337dd21fec2ec401d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808358165,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Hahahaha exactly thats what i was thinking too","text":"Hahahaha exactly thats what i was thinking too","html":"Hahahaha exactly thats what i was thinking too"},{"id":5369153,"gmtCreate":1627560350167,"gmtModify":1631890762295,"authorId":3579266597292844,"author":{"id":3579266597292844,"idStr":"3579266597292844","authorId":3579266597292844,"name":"LoneSurvivor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82eb7b56f99eff92f30a4ece3e5c96c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808358165,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"You can just 把它當放屁 🥴","text":"You can just 把它當放屁 🥴","html":"You can just 把它當放屁 🥴"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808358087,"gmtCreate":1627560110849,"gmtModify":1633763816038,"author":{"id":"4088140753971840","authorId":"4088140753971840","name":"MG87","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccbcce22eec354bd90c77cfd863fb27","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088140753971840","authorIdStr":"4088140753971840"},"htmlText":"❤️","listText":"❤️","text":"❤️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808358087","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808315477,"gmtCreate":1627556584599,"gmtModify":1633763840390,"author":{"id":"4089807936708660","authorId":"4089807936708660","name":"dine","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4089807936708660","authorIdStr":"4089807936708660"},"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808315477","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5368831,"gmtCreate":1627557776532,"gmtModify":1635164995244,"authorId":3568531063457300,"author":{"id":3568531063457300,"idStr":"3568531063457300","authorId":3568531063457300,"name":"AT66","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91701cd0393b6bb4e80d3594fe9dbdb0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808315477,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808312382,"gmtCreate":1627556524446,"gmtModify":1633763841646,"author":{"id":"3577092916321492","authorId":"3577092916321492","name":"Chengstacy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d46f3f41d17cb95ee8d8a9e817e22983","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577092916321492","authorIdStr":"3577092916321492"},"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808312382","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5368699,"gmtCreate":1627556572138,"gmtModify":1635165003626,"authorId":3575807346407979,"author":{"id":3575807346407979,"idStr":"3575807346407979","authorId":3575807346407979,"name":"4XKEYQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de3f10a9c3304a65bad52cfc9b4792f0","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808312382,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","html":"Yeah"},{"id":5368777,"gmtCreate":1627557193437,"gmtModify":1635164998752,"authorId":3565613490304898,"author":{"id":3565613490304898,"idStr":"3565613490304898","authorId":3565613490304898,"name":"fearedhouse","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c690bf7f98fdaf770c602f0b381fb343","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808312382,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yup","text":"yup","html":"yup"},{"id":5368818,"gmtCreate":1627557677217,"gmtModify":1635164996004,"authorId":3576816969360521,"author":{"id":3576816969360521,"idStr":"3576816969360521","authorId":3576816969360521,"name":"股你怕么","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea4af6f5bc52855706c4d530b3901e85","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808312382,"type":1,"supId":5368699,"prevId":0,"content":"fiod","text":"fiod","html":"fiod"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808313475,"gmtCreate":1627556319097,"gmtModify":1633763844413,"author":{"id":"3586922733730917","authorId":"3586922733730917","name":"Elon2","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586922733730917","authorIdStr":"3586922733730917"},"htmlText":"..","listText":"..","text":"..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808313475","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808335931,"gmtCreate":1627555754623,"gmtModify":1631884084849,"author":{"id":"3576157272608324","authorId":"3576157272608324","name":"xoomix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81fb577501c623c67fc3decd73850f8a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576157272608324","authorIdStr":"3576157272608324"},"htmlText":"Boom","listText":"Boom","text":"Boom","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808335931","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808339558,"gmtCreate":1627555342874,"gmtModify":1633763850902,"author":{"id":"4090657250004720","authorId":"4090657250004720","name":"gogogofo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4285be107c6d2536e62759419c74c2fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090657250004720","authorIdStr":"4090657250004720"},"htmlText":"Daily like please&nbsp;","listText":"Daily like please&nbsp;","text":"Daily like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808339558","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808394470,"gmtCreate":1627555211390,"gmtModify":1633763852685,"author":{"id":"3585385605908328","authorId":"3585385605908328","name":"Thomas9413","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effcfaa82ddb11a4fa57136b2a6f8351","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3585385605908328","authorIdStr":"3585385605908328"},"htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808394470","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5368553,"gmtCreate":1627555771509,"gmtModify":1631896626339,"authorId":3576157272608324,"author":{"id":3576157272608324,"idStr":"3576157272608324","authorId":3576157272608324,"name":"xoomix","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81fb577501c623c67fc3decd73850f8a","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808394470,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808973032,"gmtCreate":1627553828826,"gmtModify":1633763864626,"author":{"id":"4090394775900830","authorId":"4090394775900830","name":"cheekychump","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/700f04fb627964f0ed78866f01a91401","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090394775900830","authorIdStr":"4090394775900830"},"htmlText":"It's a close call.","listText":"It's a close call.","text":"It's a close call.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808973032","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5368431,"gmtCreate":1627555101668,"gmtModify":1635165019555,"authorId":3582843618871796,"author":{"id":3582843618871796,"idStr":"3582843618871796","authorId":3582843618871796,"name":"Adollar","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7c3e8d0ea455e203fda09d0d2cffb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808973032,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Great reAad","text":"Great reAad","html":"Great reAad"},{"id":5368455,"gmtCreate":1627555223477,"gmtModify":1635165018062,"authorId":3585385605908328,"author":{"id":3585385605908328,"idStr":"3585385605908328","authorId":3585385605908328,"name":"Thomas9413","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/effcfaa82ddb11a4fa57136b2a6f8351","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":808973032,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Ok","text":"Ok","html":"Ok"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":808942350,"gmtCreate":1627553489870,"gmtModify":1633763868287,"author":{"id":"3581720614399200","authorId":"3581720614399200","name":"68fc893","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581720614399200","authorIdStr":"3581720614399200"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808942350","repostId":1166973685,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166973685","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627552847,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166973685?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 18:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166973685","media":"Barrons","summary":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors","content":"<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Second-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSecond-Quarter GDP Will Likely Be Robust, but It May Disappoint. What to Watch.<blockquote>第二季度GDP可能会强劲，但可能会令人失望。看什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 18:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>当周四上午公布第二季度国内生产总值首次数据时，投资者将看到产出健康增长。但投资者应该做好失望的准备。</blockquote></p><p> Economists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的经济学家预计，美国经济在6月份季度经季节调整后的年化增长率为8.5%，高于3月份季度的6.4%。随着近几个月接种疫苗的消费者重返重新开放的经济，投资者可以预计消费（约占GDP的三分之二）将激增。经济学家还认为，本季度企业固定投资大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> We note, though, that&nbsp;the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP&nbsp;Now estimate&nbsp;to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我们注意到，在美国人口普查公布库存数据后，亚特兰大联储周三将当前GDP预估从前一天的7.4%下调至6.4%。6月份批发库存增长0.8%，低于5月份的1.3%，也低于市场普遍预期的1.1%。这可能预示着周四GDP将低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Economists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家周三强调了库存的进口。他们表示：“商品需求激增和严重的生产瓶颈相结合，导致库存急剧下降。”他们补充说，相对于目前的商品和结构需求水平，企业库存比危机前低10%。规范——2750亿美元的缺口相当于年度实际（或经通胀调整）GDP的1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>高盛表示：“随着消费者对商品的需求可能放缓，大多数消费者服务反弹，库存补充已成为增长前景的关键因素。”这使得周四公布GDP时库存特别值得关注。</blockquote></p><p> If second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.</p><p><blockquote>Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森(Ian Shepherdson)表示，如果第二季度GDP确实像华尔街预期的那样增长8%左右，投资者可能会看到产出首次超过新冠疫情前的水平。他表示，这仍将使GDP比新冠疫情前的增长速度持续下去的水平低2.25%，这支持了美联储的观点，即经济仍有复苏的空间。</blockquote></p><p> Check back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.</p><p><blockquote>早上8:30后回来查看。东部时间新闻和分析。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/second-quarter-gdp-will-likely-be-robust-but-it-may-disappoint-what-to-watch-51627510263?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166973685","content_text":"When the first read on second quarter gross domestic product is reported Thursday morning, investors will see a healthy gain in output. But investors should brace for disappointment.\nEconomists polled by FactSet expect the U.S. economy to have grown at a seasonally adjusted 8.5% annualized rate in the June quarter,up from a 6.4% rate in the March quarter. Investors can expect a surge in consumption (which makes up about two-thirds of GDP) as vaccinated consumers over recent months headed back out into a reopened economy. Economists also see a sizeable jump in business fixed investment during the quarter.\nWe note, though, that the Atlanta Fed on Wednesday cut its GDP Now estimate to 6.4% from 7.4% a day earlier after the U.S. Census released inventory data. Wholesale inventories rose 0.8% in June, down from a 1.3% pace in May and short of the 1.1% consensus estimate. That may foreshadow a GDP miss relative to expectations Thursday.\nEconomists at Goldman Sachs on Wednesday highlighted inventories’ import. “The combination of a surge in demand for goods and severe production bottlenecks has resulted in a sharp drawdown of inventories,” they say, adding that relative to the current level of demand for goods and structures, business inventories are 10% below pre-crisis norms—a $275 billion shortfall representing 1.5% of annual real (or inflation-adjusted) GDP.\n“With consumer demand for goods likely to moderate and the majority of the consumer services rebound behind us, inventory restocking has become a key element of the growth outlook,” Goldman says, making inventories particularly worth watching when GDP is released Thursday.\nIf second-quarter GDP does rise somewhere around 8%, as Wall Street expects, investors may see output rise above its pre-Covid level for the first time, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That would still leave GDP 2.25% below the level which would have been reached if the pre-Covid pace of growth had been sustained, he says, underpinning the Federal Reserve’s view that the economy still has ground to recover.\nCheck back after 8:30 a.m. Eastern time for news and analysis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":147,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}