Non-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Non-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K

Seeking Alpha2022-02-04

You know it's likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to "prepare" the public, National Economic Council ...

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JayWin
·2022-02-04
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White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to \"prepare\" the public, National Economic Council ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3795925-nonfarm-payrolls-could-be-bad-worst-estimate-sees-loss-of-400k\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-04 18:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3795925-nonfarm-payrolls-could-be-bad-worst-estimate-sees-loss-of-400k><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>You know it's likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to \"prepare\" the public, National Economic Council ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3795925-nonfarm-payrolls-could-be-bad-worst-estimate-sees-loss-of-400k\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3795925-nonfarm-payrolls-could-be-bad-worst-estimate-sees-loss-of-400k","article_id":"1161887526","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161887526","pubTimestamp":1643969657,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"You know it's likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. Whit","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"非农就业可能很糟糕：最坏估计损失40万","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"You know it's likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to \"prepare\" the public, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese is calling it \"confusing\" and even Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said to take the figures with a grain of salt. The report will come out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET and investors are bracing for another uncertain number, adding to the volatile market environment.What's going on? The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects jobs data during the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. In January, that week happened to coincide with new Omicron cases peaking in the U.S., when millions were calling out sick, quarantining or caring for others. If staff were not eligible for paid leave, they are going to be marked as not working. January is also a month with extreme seasonal adjustments (think temporary holiday workers), while household survey data could be affected by new establishments and population controls. Memo to markets: Don't freak out if the January jobs report weakens.Recall that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said he doesn't place a large amount of importance to any one month of jobs data, as the month-to-month figures can be volatile. The funny thing is, the big misses have happened multiple times in recent months (Dec. 199K vs. 400K, Nov. 210K vs. 550K, Sept. 194K vs. 500K, and Aug. 235K vs. 750K). Paid sick leave is also known to be available to 79% of civilian workers, according to government data, so the forecasts should reflect that. 1.9M payroll additions were still added over the course of 2021, but with severe misses over many months, do we need a better system to calculate non-farm payrolls or estimates?ADP National Employment Report shows private payrolls declining for the first time in a year.The good?\" As far as [the jobs market] being weak, I don't know if anyone's going to give it much credence,\" said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group. \"You've clearly got Omicron cases collapsing. You're seeing some high-frequency data showing some pretty significant pickups. I just think that calms a lot of the marketplace.\"\"The hiccup in the labor market and lost jobs is temporary. 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Whit","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>You know it&#39;s likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to &#34;prepare&#34; the public, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese is calling it &#34;confusing&#34; and even Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said to take the figures with a grain of salt. The report will come out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET and investors are bracing for another uncertain number, adding to the volatile market environment.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>你知道，当关于一月份就业报告的警告不断涌入时，情况可能会很糟糕。白宫新闻秘书珍·帕萨基表示，她希望让公众“做好准备”，国家经济委员会主任Brian Deese称其“令人困惑”，甚至劳工部长Marty Walsh也表示对这些数字持保留态度。该报告将于美国东部时间周五上午8:30发布，投资者正准备迎接另一个不确定的数字，这加剧了动荡的市场环境。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><i>What&#39;s going on?</i> The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects jobs data during the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. In January, that week happened to coincide with new Omicron cases peaking in the U.S., when millions were calling out sick, quarantining or caring for others. If staff were not eligible for paid leave, they are going to be marked as not working. January is also a month with extreme seasonal adjustments (think temporary holiday workers), while household survey data could be affected by new establishments and population controls. Memo to markets: Don&#39;t freak out if the January jobs report weakens.</p><p><blockquote><i>怎么回事？</i>劳工统计局收集包括当月12日在内的支付期内的工作数据。一月份，那一周恰逢美国新增奥密克戎病例达到顶峰，当时数百万人请病假、隔离或照顾他人。如果员工没有资格享受带薪休假，他们将被标记为不工作。一月也是季节性调整极端的月份（想想临时假期工人），而家庭调查数据可能会受到新机构和人口控制的影响。给市场的备忘录：如果一月份就业报告疲软，不要惊慌。</blockquote></p><p>Recall that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said he doesn&#39;t place a large amount of importance to any one month of jobs data, as the month-to-month figures can be volatile. The funny thing is, the big misses have happened multiple times in recent months (Dec. 199K vs. 400K, Nov. 210K vs. 550K, Sept. 194K vs. 500K, and Aug. 235K vs. 750K). Paid sick leave is also known to be available to 79% of civilian workers, according to government data, so the forecasts should reflect that. 1.9M payroll additions were still added over the course of 2021, but with severe misses over many months, do we need a better system to calculate non-farm payrolls or estimates?ADP National Employment Report shows private payrolls declining for the first time in a year.</p><p><blockquote>回想一下，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔曾表示，他不太重视任何一个月的就业数据，因为逐月数据可能会波动。有趣的是，最近几个月发生了多次重大失误（12月199K对400K，11月210K对550K，9月194K对500K，8月235K对750K）。根据政府数据，79%的文职人员也可以享受带薪病假，因此预测应该反映这一点。2021年期间仍增加了190万个就业岗位，但由于多个月来严重失误，我们是否需要一个更好的系统来计算非农就业岗位或估计数？ADP全国就业报告显示私人就业人数一年来首次下降。</blockquote></p><p><i>The good?</i>&#34; As far as [the jobs market] being weak, I don&#39;t know if anyone&#39;s going to give it much credence,&#34; said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group. &#34;You&#39;ve clearly got Omicron cases collapsing. You&#39;re seeing some high-frequency data showing some pretty significant pickups. I just think that calms a lot of the marketplace.&#34;</p><p><blockquote><i>好的？</i>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“就（就业市场）疲软而言，我不知道是否有人会太相信它。”“很明显，奥密克戎病例正在崩溃。你会看到一些高频数据显示一些相当显着的回升。我只是认为这让市场平静了很多。”</blockquote></p><p>&#34;The hiccup in the labor market and lost jobs is temporary. It is the inflation danger that is paramount in the minds of Fed officials,&#34; noted economist Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG.</p><p><blockquote>三菱日联金融集团首席经济学家Chris Rupkey指出：“劳动力市场的打嗝和失业是暂时的。美联储官员最关心的是通胀危险。”</blockquote></p><p><i>The bad?</i>&#34;A weak jobs report means a longer runway for inflation until workers come back into the workforce to provide relief to widespread shortages,&#34; declared Bryce Doty of Sit Investment Associates.</p><p><blockquote><i>坏的那个？</i>Sit Investment Associates的布莱斯·多蒂(Bryce Doty)表示：“疲软的就业报告意味着通胀的跑道会更长，直到工人重返劳动力市场以缓解普遍的短缺。”</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Underlying demand in the economy is still strong, and businesses are still trying to hire,&#34; added Gus Faucher, chief U.S. economist at PNC. &#34;But the January drop in employment is another reminder that the economy will not fully return to normal until the pandemic is over.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>PNC首席美国经济学家Gus Faucher补充道：“经济的潜在需求仍然强劲，企业仍在努力招聘。”“但一月份就业人数的下降再次提醒人们，在疫情结束之前，经济不会完全恢复正常。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Analyst estimates:</b> Consensus forecasts from economists anticipate employers only added 150K jobs last month, but some are flagging (much) worse figures. Deutsche Bank sees a gain of 125K, Citigroup sees growth of 70K, while Standard Chartered forecasts a net addition of just 50K. A contraction is also possible, with Capital Economics suggesting that non-farm payrolls may have actually fallen by 200K, Goldman sees a 250K drop, Pantheon Macroeconomics puts the decline at 300K and PNC even projects a plunge of 400K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 3.9%, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.5%, boosting the annual increase to 5.2% from 4.7% in December.</p><p><blockquote><b>分析师估计：</b>经济学家的一致预测预计雇主上个月仅增加了15万个工作岗位，但一些人的数字（要糟糕得多）。德意志银行预计增长12.5万，花旗集团预计增长7万，而渣打银行预计仅净增5万。收缩也是可能的，凯投宏观(Capital Economics)表示，非农就业人数实际上可能下降了20万，高盛(Goldman)预计下降25万，万神殿宏观经济(Pantheon Macroeconomics)预计下降30万，PNC甚至预计下降40万。与此同时，失业率预计将保持在3.9%不变，平均时薪增长0.5%，使年增长率从12月的4.7%升至5.2%。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Non-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K<blockquote>非农就业人数可能很糟糕：最坏估计损失40万</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNon-farm Payrolls Could be Bad: Worst Estimate Sees Loss of 400K<blockquote>非农就业人数可能很糟糕：最坏估计损失40万</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-04 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>You know it&#39;s likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to &#34;prepare&#34; the public, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese is calling it &#34;confusing&#34; and even Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said to take the figures with a grain of salt. The report will come out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET and investors are bracing for another uncertain number, adding to the volatile market environment.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>你知道，当关于一月份就业报告的警告不断涌入时，情况可能会很糟糕。白宫新闻秘书珍·帕萨基表示，她希望让公众“做好准备”，国家经济委员会主任Brian Deese称其“令人困惑”，甚至劳工部长Marty Walsh也表示对这些数字持保留态度。该报告将于美国东部时间周五上午8:30发布，投资者正准备迎接另一个不确定的数字，这加剧了动荡的市场环境。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><i>What&#39;s going on?</i> The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects jobs data during the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. In January, that week happened to coincide with new Omicron cases peaking in the U.S., when millions were calling out sick, quarantining or caring for others. If staff were not eligible for paid leave, they are going to be marked as not working. January is also a month with extreme seasonal adjustments (think temporary holiday workers), while household survey data could be affected by new establishments and population controls. Memo to markets: Don&#39;t freak out if the January jobs report weakens.</p><p><blockquote><i>怎么回事？</i>劳工统计局收集包括当月12日在内的支付期内的工作数据。一月份，那一周恰逢美国新增奥密克戎病例达到顶峰，当时数百万人请病假、隔离或照顾他人。如果员工没有资格享受带薪休假，他们将被标记为不工作。一月也是季节性调整极端的月份（想想临时假期工人），而家庭调查数据可能会受到新机构和人口控制的影响。给市场的备忘录：如果一月份就业报告疲软，不要惊慌。</blockquote></p><p>Recall that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said he doesn&#39;t place a large amount of importance to any one month of jobs data, as the month-to-month figures can be volatile. The funny thing is, the big misses have happened multiple times in recent months (Dec. 199K vs. 400K, Nov. 210K vs. 550K, Sept. 194K vs. 500K, and Aug. 235K vs. 750K). Paid sick leave is also known to be available to 79% of civilian workers, according to government data, so the forecasts should reflect that. 1.9M payroll additions were still added over the course of 2021, but with severe misses over many months, do we need a better system to calculate non-farm payrolls or estimates?ADP National Employment Report shows private payrolls declining for the first time in a year.</p><p><blockquote>回想一下，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔曾表示，他不太重视任何一个月的就业数据，因为逐月数据可能会波动。有趣的是，最近几个月发生了多次重大失误（12月199K对400K，11月210K对550K，9月194K对500K，8月235K对750K）。根据政府数据，79%的文职人员也可以享受带薪病假，因此预测应该反映这一点。2021年期间仍增加了190万个就业岗位，但由于多个月来严重失误，我们是否需要一个更好的系统来计算非农就业岗位或估计数？ADP全国就业报告显示私人就业人数一年来首次下降。</blockquote></p><p><i>The good?</i>&#34; As far as [the jobs market] being weak, I don&#39;t know if anyone&#39;s going to give it much credence,&#34; said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group. &#34;You&#39;ve clearly got Omicron cases collapsing. You&#39;re seeing some high-frequency data showing some pretty significant pickups. I just think that calms a lot of the marketplace.&#34;</p><p><blockquote><i>好的？</i>Leuthold Group首席投资策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“就（就业市场）疲软而言，我不知道是否有人会太相信它。”“很明显，奥密克戎病例正在崩溃。你会看到一些高频数据显示一些相当显着的回升。我只是认为这让市场平静了很多。”</blockquote></p><p>&#34;The hiccup in the labor market and lost jobs is temporary. It is the inflation danger that is paramount in the minds of Fed officials,&#34; noted economist Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG.</p><p><blockquote>三菱日联金融集团首席经济学家Chris Rupkey指出：“劳动力市场的打嗝和失业是暂时的。美联储官员最关心的是通胀危险。”</blockquote></p><p><i>The bad?</i>&#34;A weak jobs report means a longer runway for inflation until workers come back into the workforce to provide relief to widespread shortages,&#34; declared Bryce Doty of Sit Investment Associates.</p><p><blockquote><i>坏的那个？</i>Sit Investment Associates的布莱斯·多蒂(Bryce Doty)表示：“疲软的就业报告意味着通胀的跑道会更长，直到工人重返劳动力市场以缓解普遍的短缺。”</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Underlying demand in the economy is still strong, and businesses are still trying to hire,&#34; added Gus Faucher, chief U.S. economist at PNC. &#34;But the January drop in employment is another reminder that the economy will not fully return to normal until the pandemic is over.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>PNC首席美国经济学家Gus Faucher补充道：“经济的潜在需求仍然强劲，企业仍在努力招聘。”“但一月份就业人数的下降再次提醒人们，在疫情结束之前，经济不会完全恢复正常。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Analyst estimates:</b> Consensus forecasts from economists anticipate employers only added 150K jobs last month, but some are flagging (much) worse figures. Deutsche Bank sees a gain of 125K, Citigroup sees growth of 70K, while Standard Chartered forecasts a net addition of just 50K. A contraction is also possible, with Capital Economics suggesting that non-farm payrolls may have actually fallen by 200K, Goldman sees a 250K drop, Pantheon Macroeconomics puts the decline at 300K and PNC even projects a plunge of 400K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 3.9%, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.5%, boosting the annual increase to 5.2% from 4.7% in December.</p><p><blockquote><b>分析师估计：</b>经济学家的一致预测预计雇主上个月仅增加了15万个工作岗位，但一些人的数字（要糟糕得多）。德意志银行预计增长12.5万，花旗集团预计增长7万，而渣打银行预计仅净增5万。收缩也是可能的，凯投宏观(Capital Economics)表示，非农就业人数实际上可能下降了20万，高盛(Goldman)预计下降25万，万神殿宏观经济(Pantheon Macroeconomics)预计下降30万，PNC甚至预计下降40万。与此同时，失业率预计将保持在3.9%不变，平均时薪增长0.5%，使年增长率从12月的4.7%升至5.2%。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3795925-nonfarm-payrolls-could-be-bad-worst-estimate-sees-loss-of-400k\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3795925-nonfarm-payrolls-could-be-bad-worst-estimate-sees-loss-of-400k","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161887526","content_text":"You know it's likely to be bad when the warnings keep pouring in about the January jobs report. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said she wants to \"prepare\" the public, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese is calling it \"confusing\" and even Labor Secretary Marty Walsh said to take the figures with a grain of salt. The report will come out Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET and investors are bracing for another uncertain number, adding to the volatile market environment.What's going on? The Bureau of Labor Statistics collects jobs data during the pay period that includes the 12th day of the month. In January, that week happened to coincide with new Omicron cases peaking in the U.S., when millions were calling out sick, quarantining or caring for others. If staff were not eligible for paid leave, they are going to be marked as not working. January is also a month with extreme seasonal adjustments (think temporary holiday workers), while household survey data could be affected by new establishments and population controls. Memo to markets: Don't freak out if the January jobs report weakens.Recall that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has said he doesn't place a large amount of importance to any one month of jobs data, as the month-to-month figures can be volatile. The funny thing is, the big misses have happened multiple times in recent months (Dec. 199K vs. 400K, Nov. 210K vs. 550K, Sept. 194K vs. 500K, and Aug. 235K vs. 750K). Paid sick leave is also known to be available to 79% of civilian workers, according to government data, so the forecasts should reflect that. 1.9M payroll additions were still added over the course of 2021, but with severe misses over many months, do we need a better system to calculate non-farm payrolls or estimates?ADP National Employment Report shows private payrolls declining for the first time in a year.The good?\" As far as [the jobs market] being weak, I don't know if anyone's going to give it much credence,\" said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group. \"You've clearly got Omicron cases collapsing. You're seeing some high-frequency data showing some pretty significant pickups. I just think that calms a lot of the marketplace.\"\"The hiccup in the labor market and lost jobs is temporary. It is the inflation danger that is paramount in the minds of Fed officials,\" noted economist Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG.The bad?\"A weak jobs report means a longer runway for inflation until workers come back into the workforce to provide relief to widespread shortages,\" declared Bryce Doty of Sit Investment Associates.\"Underlying demand in the economy is still strong, and businesses are still trying to hire,\" added Gus Faucher, chief U.S. economist at PNC. \"But the January drop in employment is another reminder that the economy will not fully return to normal until the pandemic is over.\"Analyst estimates: Consensus forecasts from economists anticipate employers only added 150K jobs last month, but some are flagging (much) worse figures. Deutsche Bank sees a gain of 125K, Citigroup sees growth of 70K, while Standard Chartered forecasts a net addition of just 50K. A contraction is also possible, with Capital Economics suggesting that non-farm payrolls may have actually fallen by 200K, Goldman sees a 250K drop, Pantheon Macroeconomics puts the decline at 300K and PNC even projects a plunge of 400K. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is seen remaining unchanged at 3.9%, with average hourly earnings rising by 0.5%, boosting the annual increase to 5.2% from 4.7% in December.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"isCrawlerRequest":true}